DC Negative Progression

[London Shooter]

Short run anything can happen. I may hit a 6 point firebet. Doesn't make that a good play.

You are hedging your DC with two of the worst bets on the table. Why not just let the DC run naked? You are going to lose far less that way over any significant number of rolls.

[Knick111]

Hi mate, London Shooter,
IF I was to play the way you do, 1 HOUR or 2 or 3 with THIS 2 SRR SYSTEM, I would lose every penny i have AND every
penny you have.

But i am trying to show that I/YOU, can beat this game of craps AS A LOW ROLLER or HIGH ROLLER IN 20 games or less., to do that i must protect my bankroll on the comeout.

Question for you London Shooter, did SEATTLERICK or HEAVY ever send you that URL for that on line website to play craps., if they did can you send me a pm with a copy of it.

Thank you, Jaime 1943------- 73.

[London Shooter]

Sorry Jamie, never got the url so cannot comment any further on whatever betting site it is he is using.

I just don't get why some people put up a strategy or system that starts with a DP (or DC) and then fall over themselves to start hedging the come out roll. What is so scary about a $16 DP in this case that you can't leave it naked? You are throwing away around 60 cents on each hedge and that is taking a lot of percentage profit from you bottom line, or more realistically, is just adding to your losses.

To me if you have any strategy that involves come out rolls, and I don't care if they are pass/come or DP/DC then you have to embrace the fact that the initial wager may lose. I'm sure the casino loves all the dollar yos, craps check and various other mechanisms people use in these circumstances.

Or, I'll turn this round another way. If you need to hedge such plays, then the play itself is weak. The most common issue is likely to be you are overbetting your bankroll. If the come out bet is such that you can't survive it without the hedge, then I'd go back to the drawing board and come up with a plan which doesn't feed the casino a large percentage though subsequent bad bets.

[Seattlerick]

Hi guys, I cannot make my private message work, so I posted the url over on my blog thread on John Patrick's message board. I just posted a new message a few minutes ago, si it should be up later today or Monday I would think. If you do not want to read the thread, just scroll down to the very bottom and find the url.i have been in contact with heavy and do not want to break any forum rules,Mao I ousted it over there. Sorry about how this has hove down, not trying to avoid you or anything.

[Knick111]

Greetings seattlerick,

I understand , how do i join J.P M. BOARD. Jaime 1943-------73.

[Seattlerick]

You do not have to join, just go to the site, press the message board line And start reading. My post from today is not up yet, but the thread is available to read . There are many pages of threads on the message board. Heavy used to post there a while ago himself. Just bookmark the site and return. It takes from 2 hours to two days for a post to show up, after you have submitted it. Enjoy. Just google John Patrick to find the site. He is famous.

[Steen]

Save yourself time and money. War game your ideas on the Wizard's Craps game:

https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/v2/

Money? There's no charge for the basic WinCraps program. The shareware version is free to download, install, and run. It has a few pop-up notices that appear when you first play but those go away. I'll wager that even the basic version has more versatility than any craps program you care to compare. Folks who like the game can register for a small fee and gain full use of the advanced features.

Time? WinCraps can be downloaded and installed in a matter of minutes. This is a one-time affair unless you decide to download upgrades. Hardly a show-stopper. Once installed, play is not dependent on an internet connection and you have the benefit of things like graphs, statistics, roll-by-roll documentation, ability to input your own rolls, write scripts, output data, etc.

Having said that, I'm in no way disparaging the wizardofodds craps game. I just wanted to set the record straight.

Steen

[heavy]

Thanks for the clarification Steen.

[HoosierDice]

Thank you everyone for the comments. I played with a couple different ways to play this on an online simulator. The one I think I like the most is the one in my original post. The rules I have set are no more than three loses on a shooter and always regress to the minimum bet after a $25 dollar win increment has been reached. I am currently not parlaying craps number or laying odds on any of my numbers. I like playing in this manner because it is easy to track what my next bet should be and it is about as mild as a progression can get.

I had the day off from work and was able to go to the casino and try out my play. Being as it was the day after Christmas the casino was fairly packed which I like. When I normally play on Sunday afternoon/evening it is fairly common for the table to be empty for long periods of time of maybe at the peek get 4-5 people. Tonight it was 7+ all night which is what I like since I normally don't shoot the dice. I played my play except for on one gentleman I know who sets the dice fairly well and plays on the table quite a lot. The table was fairly cold all night so I really didn't have to take much heat. I played for four hours and only got knocked off by two YO's and had less than 10 PSO. The post come out roll norm was point, point, seven which i guess is about what is expected. The largest my base bet ever got was 40 which is not bad at all IMHO. The largest I was ever down was about $85 which makes me think I could play this on a smaller bankroll than I am currently if I wanted. I think $300 is the least I would buy in playing this to give me enough ammo to feel comfortable but buying in for $500 is what I prefer. I was able to clear $100 after tips and running $5 through a multi denomination single reel 50 cent slot that had just payed off a 100 credit win with no luck. I think a 20 unit session win goal is a reasonable number that should be attainable over a normal session.

I think I like playing this way as well because one of the things I like most about going to the casino is people watching and playing this way allows me to observe more which I think also helps me pick up on think at the table more for whatever that is worth. I found myself waiting for four or five rolls when I was playing tonight on certain players and placing my DC as soon as a point was established for others. Heavy, I remember reading you like to play dollar and higher denomination reel style slots that have recently paid out for five or so spins in hopes of catching a string of payout before the machine 'goes to sleep'. Do you have a range of credits you like the payoff to be? How many spins will you do on a machine before moving on? If the machine is more than a one credit max bet machine do you bet max credits (say 3 credits on a double diamond style reel machine) or only bet a single credit?

Overall I like playing this way as I get a decent amount of table time and have a fairly decent chance of winning if I follow the rules.

[HoosierDice]

I forgot to add this in my last post. The older gentleman I know who is a regular where I normally play used to set with a 2-V set but this time when I went he was setting the 1-5 on top and 5-6 facing forward. He always shoots from SR1 and knows how to shoot on this table very well. I know the 2-V is a set trying to hit 4/10 but what would the set above be trying to hit? Tonight he seemed to hit a lot of horn numbers and the 6/8. He had one or two hands where he hit a 3 10's and 2 4's. I didn't have a chance to ask him before I left and was just curious as to what numbers this set is trying to achieve as dominant numbers.

[London Shooter]

Hi Hoosier. This is the straight 6s set where he is setting up the dice upside down (usually the 6s are on top) and then moving one back a quarter turn to get the combination you stated.

Seems like he knows his throw well enough to have made this slight adjustment in set and being based on a straight 6s set he should be getting a lot of the extreme outside numbers - 4s, 10s and horns which is what you observed.

[HoosierDice]

Thank you London Shooter. That makes sense. His best roll of the night was 8 points made in probably 30 tosses. There was one guy whose normal play most of the night was to bet the passline with odds (5-full odds most of the time), buy the 4/10 for 50-100 and then a 5-16 horn bet. He almost always pressed a bet when it hit. He also did the sharpshooter bet for $15 on this roll which paid $1500. He started the roll maybe 400-600 in his rack but by the end had a full rack of green and maybe 200 in reds in addition to the three purples in his pocket. The guy to my right side standing at straight out probably made 1500 on the roll when you include the sharpshooter payout ($500).

[London Shooter]

Sounds like a shooter to keep an eye on Hoosier, or at least if you are playing the don'ts then keep your DC powder dry on him or even venture to the other side of the game if his toss looks on. You should also be able to spot patterns if he is indeed a consistent shooter and know what numbers are best to be depending on what set he is shooting with. Rare, but sometimes you do see certain players who you feel comfortable about betting on which you get to know their throw.