Trend / Anti Trend Betting

[crapsjourney]

Hi folks

I'm always on the lookout for a good treading water system to keep the game going with the other shooters.

Found a book online awhile ago about trend / anti-trend betting with line bets (pass / don't pass).

The book suggests a type of fuzzy logic approach, with alternating "Same" and "Opposite" decisions. Including a limited Martingale (loss) and Paroli (win) progression.

You alternate between betting a naked line bet only (no odds) that is the same as the last decision or opposite of the last decision.

Has anyone experimented with this concept?

I've wargamed this manually at home, and I'm writing a Wincraps script to stress test it. Interesting results so far. I'll share them on this thread once I get the Wincraps script going.

I'm not a fan of the Martingale, it's a cruel mistress when you embrace it.

[Dylanfreake]

A guy at one time said if you go with a trend , you have a chance of winning a lot of times, but only losing once.

[wild child]

A guy at one time said if you go with a trend , you have a chance of winning a lot of times, but only losing once.

You may hear the average number of dice tosses in a single hand is six(6)
....From the Come Out (C/O) to seven out ( S O )..........
.
Early in the salad days of my craps adventures advisors who advised
advised to watch the game prior to placing a wager....I was advised to
observe until I observed a shooter toss two(2) separate box numbers twice each
or
one box number three times......
Soon I learned a single hand could be terminated by the S O and I did not get to
place my money at risk.....BORING
Next I LEARNED TO PLAY THE DO NOT SIDE of the game......
The Don't can be fun until the C/O 7 or Yo picks off the D P
or
the Do Not Come is lost to the YO ( eleven) or SEVEN
.........Soooooooooo when observing becomes boring ,there always the thrill
of loosing a wager to an untimely 7 / 11 or a repeating number......
.
Also there is Transition Wagering which provides a REWARDING Pay Out
or
CRUSHING LOSS of $$ WAGER $$
>>
The lure of Craps is game of pessimistic realities played by optimists
.............
At this game learning to walk a winner is more mandated then comprehending the action.

just me saying

w c

[Dylanfreake]

Yep, wild child, anything can and will happen at a craps table. I have a set way of playing so that I never have to second guess myself. I really do not consider myself being much of a craps player since my wagering is mechanical , meaning that I bet the same way every shooter and I pay little attention to whether a table is hot or cold and I never think about whether I am playing with or against a trend. I just play the Donts. Sometimes it is boring ; sometimes not.

[heavy]

There are many types of trend and anti-trend betting. I'm a trend sort of guy myself, although like most of the players around here I will sometimes buck the trend thinking "it's gotta change." Guess what. It doesn't.

I often tell the story of the session SIA and I played in Albuquerque where they offer free buy or lay bets on the four and ten. SIA was laying the ten (or maybe it was the four). I was buying it. Here's how it went:

SIA: Lay the 10 for $10
Heavy: Buy the ten for 25
10 rolls - SIA loses $10 and replaces his $10 lay bet. Heavy collects $25 and presses to $50
10 rolls - SIA loses $10 and replaces his $10 lay bet. Heavy collects $50 and presses to $100
10 rolls - SIA loses $10 and replaces his $10 lay bet. Heavy collects $50 and presses to $250
10 rolls - SIA loses $10 and replaces his $10 lay bet. Heavy collects $250 and presses to $500
SIA says "He can't possibly roll another 10 and replaces his $10 lay bet. Heavy says "SIA, my 10 looks like $500. He CAN roll another 10." SIA says "You're right. Bring me down." And, of course, next roll the guy sevens out. LOL. Bottom line. SIA lost $40 bucking the trend. Heavy won $375 following the trend.

Now, if you are a flat bettor there are some simple ways to follow the trend that can help prevent you from getting what we call "whipsawed." Instead of betting the same as the LAST decision, which many trend bettors do, bet the decision BEFORE the last decision. Still, the whole trend thing can bite you if you're not careful. Just ask SIA.

[KrapsNovice]

A guy at one time said if you go with a trend , you have a chance of winning a lot of times, but only losing once.

Been there with baccarat. He is right some of the time the problem is when you see a pattern and it constantly changes when you bet. Trust me those days are plentiful.

Everything works until it doesn't work.

Happy New Year.

[heavy]

One of the safest ways to play the randies is a don't progression with strict rules. It has nothing to do with trends and everything to do with math and probabilities.

One of Dicetrakkr's favorite plays is to lay against the shooter's point (under certain circumstances). I won't give away all of his indicators, etc., but basically he charts for what he believes to be favorable conditions for laying against a point. After that point is established he waits ONE ROLL before laying against it . . . for essentially the same reason that many of us SKIP Place betting the first roll after a point is established. We're looking to avoid the PSO. He's looking to avoid the bullfrog (player hopping the point right back on roll 2). I find that very amusing.

Irish and I have been playing the tables together for a LONG time, that's for sure. Typically he'll win a little while I will either win a lot - or lose more than I should. LOL. It is what it is. I will even grant him the fact that, in a purely random game, there is no such thing as a trend from the mathematical point of view (which is what he goes by). However, given that the only information you have available to you is largely of a historical nature - it's human nature to want to bet based on what came before. As I said previously, history has a way of repeating itself. So from my perspective - I have three choices. Go with the trend or buck the trend. Or, in a more symbolic sense, swim down stream with the current, or try to swim upstream. It's much easier swimming down stream - going with the flow. But there's also a chance you'll end up going over a waterfall or getting washed out to sea. Trying to swim upstream you just get exhausted and drown. I'll take my chance on the waterfall and the deep blue sea.

[Moe Bettor]

Haven't read or subscribed to Trkkr, but my signal to lay against a shooter's pt. is when I deem the trend to be a chop and his shot is breaking down to junk numbers and/or disturbances occur at the table to break any rhythm. I will follow a trend if I can find one.


“you can always get nothing for something”

[gargoil]

First off you actually have to believe that trends do exist and then you have to be able to recognize them and capitalize on them. Irish doesn't believe in trends and he states they don't exist. I have to disagree with that remark. Trends and patterns exist all around us and I can show you some from postings on this forum and others. But, since Irish thinks I am stating that the moon is made of cheese (well he hasn't but that is his pattern when responding pun intended), allow me to present some facts.

In my line of business, I see companies spending millions and millions of dollars trying to identify trends and patterns in random events. One of the big retailers in the US for example that I worked for 10 years has data scientists looking over millions and millions of transactions from customers shopping across all their retail stores and running them thru machine learning and Artificial Intelligence trying to spot one habit or trend that they can capitalize on. Let me give you an example.

Let's say a woman in Chicago walks into a retail store and buys a specific purse then buys a specific pair of shoes. That is a randomly generated event. Now if another woman in New York goes into the same retail chain and buys the same purse then buys the same specific pair of shoes, although that is another randomly generated event, the AI will determine that this is a trend and suggests that combining the actual items as a special with a special price may generate more sales. Emphasis on MAY GENERATE. It is not a guarantee but a probability.

So Irish I know you like facts so I gave you one. The same thing will happen at the craps tables. Certain random events can suggest A or B may happen. It's not a guarantee but it is a suggestion. What you do with the information is up to you.

Now having said all that, I don't use the math of the game, trends, patterns or any other thing that may exist out there when I am at the tables. Why? because I believe that I am a dice influencer and that my influence will change the outcome of any math, etc... Sorry that's just me so I trust my influence. But just because I don't use something doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

[heavy]

With all that said, if I'm sitting on a 6/8 wager and the 9 rolls a couple of times, I'm probably going to place the 9. Trends don't exist, but I'm not a dumbass.

Yeah, you just described what I'll call "subconscious charting." I know. You will disagree. That's the trend. LOL.

Mini charting lesson:

There are 4 ways to roll a nine. 5-4, 4-5, 6-3, 3-6. That's 4 out of 36. Divide 4 into 36. You get 9. So once in every nine rolls you should see (on average) the nine roll. Now you see the shooter toss 9 - 8 - 2 - 9 - 4 - 9 - 8 - 6 - 9 . . . and you are looking at an aberration of the odds. The nine has rolled four times in nine tosses of the dice. Having played with some different folks, I can tell you pretty much exactly how they'll play it. Irish, for example, will see the nine roll a couple of times and he'll bet it. So he'll win on the third and fourth hits and his bet will be paid for. Dice Coach would look at that 2 craps that rolled and, despite the fact the 9 rolled next, would be off the next roll. He would not bet the nine until after it shows the third time if he bet it at all. Yours truly would have bet it for $15 after the second hit, taken it do $35 on the third hit and locked up a buck. Then given that buck back to the dealer to collect $50 for $1 on the fourth hit. We all play it differently, and we all chart - even though we may not be physically writing the numbers down.

Now here's a play I'll probably be talking about at the Biloxi class in March. We'll just call it a "key" to switch sides. Most of you know about what some players refer to as an "enemy number." An enemy number is a number that (for a brief period of time) becomes a sevens magnet. Over the last few hands this number has immediately preceded the seven. DiceTrakkr e-mailed me a list of rolls from a session he played in Indiana last week. For six hands in a row the five rolled immediately before the seven. Now, he and I look at that from opposite sides of the table. Since I'm primarily a right way bettor I look at that as a key to turn my bets off. But since he primarily plays the Don'ts, he looks at the enemy number as the "friendly" number. It's one of his indicators to LAY against the point. Sooooo, one of the things I'll be teaching in the betting strategy class is how to recognize a "friendly" number when you're playing the Don'ts. Fun stuff for sure.

Bet with the trend or buck the trend? Hell, I think you can do both and still win.

[stratocasterman]

From Webster...

Trend: Noun
3. the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change

[Dylanfreake]

Trend or no trend----if I were a rightside bettor and I wanted to bet light on other shooters , since I would think , that my controlled toss was better than a random roller`s toss , then I would either make a Pass Line or Don't Pass wager with or without odds (one loss per shooter), or make a table minimum place wager on the 6 and 8 , one hit and down on both wagers.

If there are 10 players at the table , one is YOU , a dice controller and then 9 random rollers , by making a $5 Pass Line wager losing one wager per shooter, then YOU would only be down $45 when the dice come to YOU. Then it should be easy for YOU, a dice controller to make up the $45 deficit plus add to your gambling bankroll on YOUR controlled shot.

There is no reason to try and get fancy against random rollers . Just keep it simple and YOU should be all right , whomever YOU are.

[heavy]

You are standing at the table with your thumb up your ass. The shooter tosses 6 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 6 . . . what is your next bet?

[Bankerdude80]

If the shooter is a DI, his toss results may favor the 6 & 8, therefore I'm betting the 6 & 8. Otherwise I'm sticking with my standard randie play, which by the way includes the 6 & 8 anyway.

[wild child]

You are standing at the table with your thumb up your ass.
The shooter tosses 6 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 6 . . . what is your next bet?

--------> After #,#,#, then Six,Six,Six , would prayer be O K ?
Some folks may consider the occurrence of one number being tossed three times back to back
a harbinger of THE DREADED 7 Out tossed next...........
..........That is when they decry : "I knew it !" "I just knew it!!! "

w c

[heavy]

Do you think that the 6 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 6 appearance means that there's a more likely probability that a 6/8 will appear on the next roll than if the previous sequence was 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10?

I'll answer a question with a question. Instead of following the trend would you follow the variance?

[stratocasterman]

As a DI, isn't the whole point here to be able to roll results of payable place numbers, other than the seven after the point is rolled? Call it a trend, streak or variance...who cares what is. Seems like roll results of payable place numbers would be a trend or tendency by definition.

My answer to the 6-8-6-8-6-6-6 question is, if it's a DI, I'll bet the inside numbers. If it's a random roller, after seven rolls of the dice, I don't care what the numbers rolled are...NO bet.

[heavy]

So we'll change the parameters a bit and maybe you can tell me how you'd approach this. Back before Scoblete pulled the final tit on the GTC cow and beat a retreat from the organization he, too, implemented a program whereby his students were advised to do nothing but play the Pass Line with Odds, Place the Six and Eight, and Come bet with maximum odds. True, this is an extremely low vig way to play. It also comes with extreme variance - which as we both knows cuts both ways. One of the forbidden fruits of this approach - no one was allowed to place bet the five or nine. So with that in mind, let's assume you're standing at the table and see this hand develop: 8 - 5 - 9 - 5 - 5 - 9 - 8 Pass . . . 9 - 8 - 5 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 7 out. Do you (a) bet the six and eight only, (b) bet the inside numbers, (c) bet a three point molly, or (d) bet the Pass Line with odds only?

I know, I know. You would only have made the lowest vig wagers. Pass Line. Odds. Place six and eight. One Come bet.

If I see a streak of 5's and 9's like that I'm going to be all over it. Scoblete be damned - full speed ahead. And even starting with relatively small wagers I'd have made around $300 on the hand. But hey - my sort of play is not for everyone.

[Dylanfreake]

I quit guessing by playing basically the same way every session and like Irish , except on any game, "I follow the math and hope variance smiles upon me."

[Moe Bettor]

But we are not dealing with a random number generator at a live craps table. Specifics here. Random shooter at a live craps table. What designates a random shooter? If someone sets the dice, has a rhythmic throw which is not perfect and throws a sequence of numbers that repeat what are we to say about that? Same thing we'd say about WinCraps random generation? He might be influencing the outcome of the dice. Yes..we wont know that unless thousands of rolls are thrown, but in this short arc of time I would go with that shooter since I do play randies. Best course of action for a DI without other DI's at the table..is to wait their turn or play the lowest HA..the no on the shooters number.