Managing the downside

[Bankerdude80]

Although high risk/high reward, it could be said that craps and other gambling activities are akin to speculative investing.
Most investment professionals are big on managing the downside of their investments. If one's investments go South, it takes that much
more effort to get back to zero.

Warren Buffet has two rules of investing. Rule #1 Don't lose Money. Rule #2 Remember Rule #1.
Paul Tudor Jones has said, "The wealth one has can be so ephemeral; you have to be focused on the downside at all times."

In craps, some use strict loss limits, something like a stop loss limit of 50% of their buy-in. What are some others? How do you manage the downside?

[heavy]

Let me toss our one of the worst. The "get back bet." I used it twice today in a 3.4.5X odds game. It required a line bet 3 to 4 times my usual in order to be able to get $100 in odds. Today it worked like a champ both times. Tomorrow...who knows?

[London Shooter]

To me the "don't lose money" doesn't apply. Gambling is inherently about the downside. You are not supposed to win, though in a lot of sessions you will.

Acknowledging that to win you have to put some money at risk and there will be losing sessions is a good thing IMO. A don't lose money type of approach may lead to betting too timidly or worse, hedging and on the craps table it seems a lot of hedges are nothing other than bad bets.

If you need to hedge, you are betting too much at one time, so just bet less

So loss limit for sure, but within that don't overbet your buyin at any one time or on any one shooter. 10% max might even be too much for some people. 5% might be better. Within this the regression strategies may not work for many people as they tend to start out with a bigger than comfortable bet. If you are tempted by that large initial inside or across bet, even if only for one or two rolls - just stop to consider how you would feel if the 7 comes immediately.

[heavy]

I agree with London Shooter.

Another trick I use is to simply do something to change things up. Toss out a significant dealer bet to get them into the ga e. ie do sonething as simple as passing the dice or taking a bathroom break. Sometimes I'll switch games. Play roulette, blackjack, mini-bac, or hit the high limit slots for a few spins. If the casino has more than one craos table open change tables. Or, of course, you could just switch to the dark side.

[DanF]

I have a simple trick, if I am down 150-200 and don't see a face I know can throw good hands on the table, and my throw seems off that day. I pack shit up and come back a few days later. Usualy steam comes down and I have a better session.

[heavy]

A time to walk...a time to run.

[London Shooter]

Would be a good separate discussion, even if only theoretical for the vast majority of us. But for anybody who genuinely feels they have a repeatable edge over certain numbers in casino conditions, then Kelly is something they should be considering seriously for their wagering requirements relative to bankroll.

[heavy]

There's a bit of a discussion of the Kelly on the Bankroll and Variance thread originated, I believe, by Bankerdude. Wizard also talks a bit in his Experts Speak section about using the Kelly for certain bankroll decision. I think I have an article I wrote buried on the forum somewhere about the Kelly, but I can't find it at the moment. I'll see if I can find a copy and re-post it here.

[heavy]

This is not the article I'm looking for, but it does address playing the Kelly or a Fractional Kelly to help manage the downside. It is an excerpt from an article over on the axispowercraps.com site.

Let’s say you’re an Advantage Player taking a full Kelly approach craps. You determine that you have a 1.32% positive expectation per decision (toss), and you have a total bankroll of $50,000. Your average bet will be approximately 1.2% of your total bankroll, or $660. Funny how that amount keeps coming up. You limit your wagers to your own toss, since that’s where you have your advantage. And since you have an AP mindset you never regress or press your bets. Once placed they stay placed. Theoretically, taking that approach one could expect to win $1000 in around 115 tosses of the dice – or about two hours play on a private table.

This, by the way, is why the Advantage Play (card counter) crowd tells us that if we have SRR’s of 1.7 or higher we should all be making millions at the tables. In their version of Perfect World Casino that is how things work.

How do I play these days? My strategy falls somewhere in the middle. I may start out with a full Kelly wager, then regress to a fractal Kelly after a few hits. After that I press my bets back up to what I’ll call a high fractal Kelly. In short, I still regress. I still press. At certain levels I just camp out and collect “$50 for $1” or “off and on for $70.” And if I see signs that my toss is going south on me I still turn my bets off.

How do you win $1000 a day at casino craps? Begin by learning how not to lose $1000 a day at casino craps. Once you master that part of the game you’ll be well on your way.

[heavy]

Here's a link to the article I was looking for:

viewtopic.php?t=593

Scout said:

...how do arrive at the % probably expectation to start? You stated, ..."You determine that you have a 1.32% positive expectation per decision (toss), and you have a total bankroll of $50,000."

Well, seems like I got that from BoneTracker, but the calculation is easy enough. To calculate the expected value (EV) of a bet simply multiply your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:

(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

[heavy]

Bottom line, Scout . . . when you are winning you increase your bet size. When you are losing you reduce your bet size. Your base bet should be an amount appropriately commensurate with your bankroll size.

[DanF]

Ok, lets say I found a way to make money on my rolls, 1-2 guys at the table I trust enough to bet 66 inside and get a few hits on... what do I do on. The 10 other money eating randys at the table... 240$ per table turn I risk just betting 6-8...kinda tired of it...and dark side isnt always the answer.

[Moe Bettor]

Goi get a soda, play a penny slot ( they have a lot of them at Murphy NC) if the table is packed in. Totally agree. It's just a crappy atmosphere. Last time I got pressed in between a dealer next to the hook and a rope stantion. Yes, I played..threw from the hook. Nothing great. People will leave that table when the seven outs start. I've seen people waiting for that to happen. Then I would proceed to Irish' step 2 or go on the right side with my throw.

[DanF]

...today was a day where nothing worked.
So I left down 150. Rarely get myself to leave when down, but I joined a game where a guy I know won 15k the hand before. Feeling well, and things went south, plus I couldn't throw for shit... I threw 5 comeout seven and a craps before making a point on a 3v set lol...all week I was throwing points on demand...what ever I guess. Better luck next time.

[Bankerdude80]

BUMP

[London Shooter]

We'll have to start calling you Bumperdude