Let's talk more about variance....

[rhythm roller]

Nope, nothing changes except perception or perhaps individual expectation of future events.

[Bankerdude80]

Aren't there ghostly spirits or dimensional energy that influences the coin toss results?

I think I saw something like that on an old episode of "Supernatural".

[heavy]

My question has less to do with the mathematics if the coin fill and more toward how to bet it. Let's take 3 options. Same as last decision, opposite of last decision, or decision before the cast decision. Over the long run all three strategies should perform the same. But that won't be the case over the short run. Over the short run to may see heads 75 out of 100 times, or 75 tails over 100 rolls, or some mix of 50/50 that comes H T H T H.

Now let's take this to a fame like baccarat. The house edge is less than 2% If it's simply a coin flip game why does the game hold over 20%? Math guys will tell us that money management strategies simply don't work. That the math will always win out. But why does the game hold that extra 18%? Because people make stupid bets? Because...why?

Variance us what drives wins. But you have to bet the right way to take advantage of the variance. My approach is simple. If the table fives up a streak n of Player wins I will bet Player and ride that horse until it bucks me. Then I'll bet the next streak until it bucks me.

Play Banker every time and you are designed to lose. Same goes for those who always play Player. Go have to mix it up...and have a bit of luck if you're going to be a long run winner. Even if you're using a coin flip to decide which way to bet. Heads it's banker. Tails it's player. It's better than no plan at all.

[stratocasterman]

I understand now Irish...thanks for the example