Craps Tournament Betting Strategy

[stratocasterman]

Toss out your best strategy for me if you would!

Resorts World here is having their 1st ever Craps Tournament. I got fortunate and managed to weasel my way into it today, with a very nice Tournament Director, as I was unaware and did not get pre-registered.

I DID manage to make the qualifying round for tomorrow though! It is a $2000, $1000, $500 first through third payout.

1> Each player gets $500 to bet
2> There are ONLY 15 hands to bet on each qualifying round
3> 12 players at the table
4> Seats are by a drawing (I have Seat 3 tomorrow)
5> Shooting begins at Seat 1 and goes around the table for 15 tosses ONLY (if a shooter sevens out, the dice go to the next shooter and the 15 count continues)
6> Top 6 players, with the most cash, move on to the Finals
7> You get 10 seconds to bet (in order around the table from the Stick on both Left & Right side

I had a bit of trouble today as you only have 10 seconds to bet, or you must pass until the next toss. Maybe it was nerves, I don't know, but it really threw me off as I DON'T bet the "randies" and I DON'T make Prop bets usually. I found myself with WAY too much to think about and VERY little time to do it in!

Assume that ALL the shooters will be "randies" except for myself. At Seat 3 tomorrow, I think it is highly favorable that I will get a shot at the dice by the 8th-10th toss. That should leave me with 2 "randies" to bet on, then 5-7 tosses for myself to finish the round out by my guesstimate.

I DO think that if I do get the dice in a favorable cash position, I can then judge what I want to do...based on what cash the others have and what/how much they have out on the table. My thought was to get some nice inside number tosses going, get to the 15th and last toss, take down my bets and toss a SO and leave them hung out to dry. (Sorry folks, I am not an a$$hole but this is for tournament keeps! Every man or woman for themselves!)

Let me know what you would do...I am so interested to know and need the advice as this is a first for me.

Thanks!

Michael

[stratocasterman]

Been thinking about this some more.

What about laying all the box numbers on the CO and set for the all sevens set? If I hit it, just stay on it.

If I knock myself off of one for a point, STILL shoot the seven for one more toss. If I hit another box number, take them all down and just go across the inside with what I took down off the remaining 4 lay numbers.

There shouldn't be too many tosses left out of the 15 when I get the dice, so why not go for it? I don't think anyone else will figure it out until it is too late. I don't think they will have the guts to lay against me anyway.

I figure if I DO hit the sevens, it will probably give me enough cash to stay up on everyone else, especially if the "randies" bomb their initial cash BRs and NOT mine.

Confidence not cockiness right?

[London Shooter]

I wouldn't worry about your actual throw (if you get one) but more about what others are betting on. Your best shot will be to do as much opposite to the majority as possible. It could all blow up, but gives you the best chance to win IMO. Do you have time to do this? Dunno, seems tough given the pace of things so you would really need to be on the ball at betting time.

No doubt some people will be betting the middle props and looking to get lucky. If they are hopping aces and midnights and they hit then those kind of players are going to be hard to beat no matter what you do.

[Maddog]

An old MP article.. maybe of value.. http://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad141tournyb.htm

[stratocasterman]

Good insight LS! I noticed SEVERAL players yesterday playing the props heavily. I don't think it really hurt their BR that much but, they didn't fair to well with it. It was just the way the dice fell yesterday. I think they got caught up into prop betting too much and lost focus on the real deal at the Right and Dark sides at the box numbers with too small of bets.

Maddog...GREAT VALUE and thanks! I ran MP's scenarios in Wincraps at random and went positive $ about 50% of the time. The other 50% I broke about even or about 15% down on my BR. I think (from what I saw yesterday), with those types of random results, I would fair MUCH better than anyone else.

Yesterday, overall, about 9 out of 10 had no real strategy. I tend to think, if the dice fall right, MP's strategy will get the job done. His ALL your money working for you on each roll was only utilized by one other person that I saw.

It seemed that most laid back, afraid or trying to preserve their BR. Like MP said, when it got to about roll 10, most were panicking to bet and lost their butts to those that were aggressive on the every/early rolls. Fortunately for me, I stumbled my way into Lay + Place betting. That carried me through to today's round, so that must be the way to go.

I quickly realized that "normal" betting strategy will NOT work here! I must TOTALLY change my mindset.

Thanks guys...I have MUCH more confidence with a plan today.

[stratocasterman]

Haha...I guess my 4th Place out of 70 entrants and $400 wasn't too bad for a first time tournament and craps newbie!

I did use MP's tournament strategy article, http://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad141tournyb.htm that Maddog suggested. That worked REAL WELL! Thanks!!!

Made it through 2 rounds of Semi-Finals. Both rounds I placed 2nd in total BR and was just barely beaten by $12 and then by $4. That gave me a seat in the Finals with 5 others.

I did not fair as well in the Finals, mainly by getting knocked off my sizable 4&10 Lay bets early. I managed to crawl back with some place bet inside numbers and then bet another small Lay bet on the four I collected. Just too little, too late.

Funny thing, I managed to get the dice with three tosses left in the game. It was the ONLY time I got the dice in the entire tournament. Sooooo...I thought, ALL in Lay bet on the 10 and I'll nail the seven I have been practicing. I get the dice, grabbed a 1-6 top, 4-4 facing me pair, start to set for the All Sevens set and "WOAH, STOP, NO DICE SETTING!!!" the Stick and Box SCREAMED in unison. They said, "just throw them as is given to you."

DANGA! That ruined that strategy! Wouldn't you know it, I threw a hard eight! Got 'em back and threw snake eyes, got 'em back for the last throw and threw a midnight box cars. Well, at least they WERE on axis but, I just couldn't pull it off.

The tournament director knew I was an American (duh, the ONLY white boy in the room) and said, "I watched your betting strategy a bit. You must have played in several tournaments in the U.S.." I just busted out laughing and told him, "no, this is my first ever but, I have a great learning source (APC Forum)."

Big fun and a great learning experience!

[Moe Bettor]

You did great. And a really terrific log of your experience. I read the Mad Professor's articles and they are brilliant, but he acknowledges he only won %20 of the time. Just my opinion, but laying the numbers may be safe but doing that gives you a lesser return. I like trapping the other players with huge money on the table and setting for sevens. When you threw snake eyes and midnight..I would bet there were players on those numbers, right? I think you always have to have something up there on the horn in a tournament.

[heavy]

I've made it to the final table using something akin to SIA's one hit can't miss play - essentially putting $1000 on the DP then placing the six and eight for $900 each. When you get near the end of the game you should be the opposite of what the chip leader is doing. If he bets right - you bet wrong. That way if the decision goes your way you close the gap twice as fast. The thing I think you should do on the last decision is take all of your action down and put it all in the Come. You'll double up on a seven or eleven.

[stratocasterman]

You did great. And a really terrific log of your experience. I read the Mad Professor's articles and they are brilliant, but he acknowledges he only won %20 of the time. Just my opinion, but laying the numbers may be safe but doing that gives you a lesser return. I like trapping the other players with huge money on the table and setting for sevens. When you threw snake eyes and midnight..I would bet there were players on those numbers, right? I think you always have to have something up there on the horn in a tournament.

Thanks...you know, in the early qualifying rounds, the 4&10 Lays worked well and I was playing smart by taking down my inside number place bets after 3 or 4 hits. It seemed every time I took down my place bets, the seven followed. For awhile there, it was like I had a crystal ball of luck. What really surprised me overall was that after others see what you are doing/betting, they didn't seem to react to it by betting the same or differently.

I've made it to the final table using something akin to SIA's one hit can't miss play - essentially putting $1000 on the DP then placing the six and eight for $900 each. When you get near the end of the game you should be the opposite of what the chip leader is doing. If he bets right - you bet wrong. That way if the decision goes your way you close the gap twice as fast. The thing I think you should do on the last decision is take all of your action down and put it all in the Come. You'll double up on a seven or eleven.

Yes, the zag when others zig can really swing things around as I had watched in some other qualifying rounds.

Thanks to all here!