Jaime's Don't Pass + $150 Across Hybrid Play

[heavy]

On Dicenator's recent cruise ship trip report a question was asked about Jaime's Hybrid Don't Pass plus $150 Across Play and I thought the discussion deserved it's own thread (as opposed to hijacking the trip report thread - which Jaime did not want to do).

Here is the play as I understand it:

Bet $75 on the Don't Pass and wait for the point to be established.

Once the point is established Place bet $150 across including the point. For those of you who attended public schools in the last ten years - that sounds $25 on every box number. And therein lies the problem with using terms like $150 across. Your $150 across adds up to $24 on the six and eight, $25 on the five and nine, and BUY bets on the four and ten at $25 each plus $1 vig on each one - or $26 total assuming you pay the juice up front. I do NOT want anyone on this forum going to the casino and Placing the six or eight for $25. More on this later. *

At this point you take (hopefully) two or three hits on the Across bet. This could yield anywhere from $28 to $49 per hit. Let's assume an average of $33. That means on average you'll have collected around $66.

NOW you take down all of the place bets and REBET the point number for $75. At this point you'll either break even or win a small amount based on the odds of the number placed.

PROS:

Once you get beyond two hits you have minimal risk to the seven.
Once you take down the across bets you have no risk to the seven.

CONS:

Exposure of a $75 Don't Pass bet to the seven/eleven natural on the Come Out.
$75 Exposure on the $150 Across Place bets until they hit twice and come down.

WHAT'S MISSING?

Several things, but I don't want this to be a one-way conversation so I'll leave it open to your comments. How would you tweak this strategy to minimize downside risk WITHOUT giving all of your profit away with high-vig hedge bets? Also, you might want to think about CHARTING the trend before jumping in no this action. But I'll talk more on that later as well.

* Meanwhile, let's get back to the subject of mis-sized bets. Last week in Shreveport/Bossier I noticed several experienced players making what I'll refer to as "goofy" sized bets. The $25 six or eight is one of them. Perhaps these players are just used to standing straight out and playing the BIg 6/8 and the Field. Or perhaps they want the extra dollar paid at even money (you'll get paid correctly on $24 of that action but you'll get even money on the extra buck, resulting in a $29 payout) so they can toss a buck to the dealer as a toke. Beats me. Just seemed goofy. Of course, some players make odd-sized bets in order to facilitate press moves. Behold the $16 six or eight. Talk about confusing a dealer and bringing a game to a stop. Go ahead and toss out $32 and tell the dealer you want a $16 six and eight. You will get the duh look and you'll have to explain that "when it hits I want to take the payoff and go straight to $30." Ah. Now it makes sense. Only it doesn't make sense. You are increasing the house's vig on your action, which is never a good idea.

Okay, lecture over. Now it's time for your input on Jaime's $150 across hybrid play. Let's hear it.

[London Shooter]

Think I'd prefer min DP bet then make use of odds. Too much 7/11 exposure on the come out for my liking. Odds with DP - multiples of 30 for ease Then place all numbers bar the point - 52/54 across per 30 DP odds

Then two or three hits and down on place bets and wait for decision on the DP. Think I would go for three hits then at min 3 x 14 payouts = 42 which covers your $5Dp with 30 odds or $10dp with 30 odds. Even better if some hits are a 4 or 10.

Could even take down your DP odds if you are happy money has been made from your two or threee place hits or keep up and hope for seven out shortly after for a jackpot hand.

[220Inside]

How about instead of one big DP bet, do a $25 DP and then 2 additional $25 DC bets, no odds.

[tonybugs]

I like the $75DP bet, but I'd only go $42 on the 6 & 8. I'd also hop the 7's for $5 each. Collect twice, which puts me up $8 and see where the hand takes me. If shooter gets hot, I place the point. If not let it ride and keep collecting on the 6 & 8.

Bugs

[heavy]

I see a lot of folks focusing on the Don't Pass portion of the wager. Has anyone considered bypassing the Come Out entirely. That way you have zero sevens exposure on the Come Out. Wait until the point is established then lay against it. Then size your Place/Buy bets appropriately.

[KrapsNovice]

I see a lot of folks focusing on the Don't Pass portion of the wager. Has anyone considered bypassing the Come Out entirely. That way you have zero sevens exposure on the Come Out. Wait until the point is established then lay against it. Then size your Place/Buy bets appropriately.

If the odds are 3 4 5 I think laying the point is the best choice but if you have 100x's odds I would put a minimum DP and take odds.

[$5Bill]

If the odds are 3 4 5 I think laying the point is the best choice but if you have 100x's odds I would put a minimum DP and take odds.

A long time ago I came up with a play like that but I kept getting knocked off my $10 Don’t with my lay bet so I stopped doing it. When it works it is great. We have 100x Odds at my casino.

I make a $10 minimum bet on the Don’t. When it travels to my point, I lay odds on the 4, 5, 9, or 10. I don’t do this play when the point is a 6 or 8. I take two hits on any of my place numbers and then down on everything including my lay bet leaving my Don’t flat bet to either win or lose. You can choose to leave your lay bet up if you want but then you risk losing it.

Here what happens at each stage…



4/10
D/P $10 flat w/$100 odds
$44 inside

make point -$110
make point after 1 hit -$96
make point after 2 hits +$18
seven out +$16
seven out after 1 hit +$30
seven out after 2 hits +$38
____________
Leaving odds working
____________
make point after 2 hits -$82
seven out after 2 hits +$88

__________________________

5/9
D/P $10 flat w/$60 odds
$34 inside

make point -$70
make point after 1 hit -$56
make point after 2 hits +$18
seven out +$16
seven out after 1 hit +$30
seven out after 2 hits +$38
_____________
leaving odds working
______________
make point after 2 hits -$42
seven out after 2 hits +$78

OR

4/10
D/P $10 flat w/$150 odds
$66 inside

make point -$160
make point after 1 hit -$139
make point after 2 hits +$32
seven out +$19
seven out after 1 hit +$40
seven out after 2 hits +$52
___________
Leaving odds working
___________
make point after 2 hits -$118
seven out after 2 hits +$127

__________________________

5/9
D/P $10 flat w/$90 odds
$51 inside

make point -$100
make point after 1 hit -$79
make point after 2 hits +$32
seven out +$19
seven out after 1 hit +$40
seven out after 2 hits +$52
___________
leaving odds working
___________
make point after 2 hits -$58
seven out after 2 hits +$112


$5Bill

[heavy]

Good post, Bill.

[DanF]

Not a fan of 75$ DP. At all, especially on myself, since I do a lot of early points and 7/11 with my sets.

A great play I have seen around tho.

5(or 9) to 50$ 6&8 to 60$, pass line single odds.

Take 3 hits and down the inside to 51.

Makes 210$ for 3 hits, reinvest 51$ for 159$ sure profits and transition to heavy pressing.

[SHOOTITALL]

Way to much exposure for my taste. This is something more comfortable, bypass the CO, place bet $66 inside, then $15 DC every roll. No matter where the DC travels, you be in good shape. The down side is a PSO. You lose $81 bucks right now. Get past the first point, you're in good shape. You collect $21 on a point and pull that leaving the DC. No exposure then on that point (meaning if the shooter brings back that point, you still have a profit on that point), you have about $48 place exposure and $15 DC exposure. If a DC travels to the 4/10, then place that number for $10 or $15, makes little difference but at $10, no way to lose, making $4 or $5 bucks regardless of what happens. Now, if one of the pulled place bet/DC gets whacked, your choice to replace it as a place bet. I think it takes two place bet hits to about breakeven. More than likely this scenario is written up someplace as someone's goofy system.
After some more thinking on this, maybe not place the DC, if the shooter does not toss a seven, then increase the inside by $66. You probably got a hit on one of the inside numbers, collecting $21 or nothing if he rolled a 4,10, craps or eleven. Place the DC now for $15 and pull any hit continuing to place the DC for $15. Two hits at the $132 level, reduce the two remaining points to $18 or $20 each.