Fooling around on a cold day

[Dylanfreake]

I was playing around with a few pages of old rolls that I had recorded a few years ago, about 11 to 12 years to be exact.

I decided to see how some of these rolls would do when compared to Dont flat bets and Dont bets laying odds . I took 325 shooters and simulated what would happen had I played three ways:

1) $20 Flat Dont Pass Wager every roll
2) $10 Dont Pass laying the following odds $12(10) $15 (10) $20 (10), wagering every roll
3) $10 Dont Pass laying $12 $15 and $20 , like the above , but only losing one loss per shooter, whether on the comeout or after a point is established

325 shooters is roughly 21 or 22 hours of play and each way of playing has an Average Wager of $20.

Results:
1) minus $60
2) Plus $196
3) minus $49

I normally play like # 3. Either way you play , using these rolls per 325 shooters, I would not have won much or lost much

The most I was behind during these rolls were:
1) $280
2) $400
3) $194

I know that anything can happen on a craps table and all this does is is to say that, "The dice have no memory , but since I recorded those rolls , they do have a history", at least for these 325 shooters

[mssthis1]

Is it possible for you to see how many of those shooters made 3 or more pass line points? If it's a lot of work don't do it just for me.

[DarthNater]

mssthis1, that's my question too......
So that's 2, DF, ciao, D.N8r

[Dylanfreake]

22 of those shooters made 3 or more pass line points.

[DarthNater]

Less than 7%, actually 6.7% which maps pretty closely to MP's assessment in the "Dodging Bullet...." series of 6.4%.

I'll hazard a guess that those 22 came in clumps, with stretches bigger than 1 ever 15 or so....

[mssthis1]

Many thanks Dylanfreake:

Wong on Dice has 6.6953% as the number of shooters who will make 3 or more numbers in a totally random game and since I have no desire to rehash the math, I'm using that number.

I usually don't chart but I'm going to start keeping track of my own shooting and other shooters by table to see if I toss 3 passes more than random and hopefully find a table that is worse than random to play my don't progression.

[Dylanfreake]

I used to run into a guy from Jackson, Michigan that played the Donts . He traveled from Michigan to Biloxi every month stopping at casinos to cash coupons and/or spend the night . He had a camper on his truck in case he could not get a comped room .

He did not track each number but he did track Dont Pass/ Pass wins.

He would put down a + for a DP win and a - for a Pass Line win on the scratch pads that housekeeping leaves in the room. He told me that he had thousands of pages filled out and that he played 8 or more hours if he was at a casino for a day.

I have not seen him in years , but the times I played with him , he would make a $5 DP and go up $5 on a loss and go down $5 on a win for hours and hours.

[Spike8850]

I used to take only one loss per shooter bit I've changed up a little. If the shooter makes a second pass line winner, I get back on the DP. So far I've won more bets than I've lost, but time will tell.

[stratocasterman]

Seems like a DP bet after the third pass is a pretty good bet right?

I asked an everyday regular at our table, to check his daily charts. He told me that in checking his results stats for the past three months or so, only myself and fourteen others had made or exceeded three passes out of 336 different shooters (4.46%). It's kind of stunning to actually see some stats results of this nature.

I think the lower results % here is because craps is not really played that much, as compared to Baccarat and Roulette.

[Seattlerick]

That is approximately the right odds for multiple points. The problem is that you can go for hours and hours and not see a roller who makes a third point. If they do make a third point, They have a way better than usual roll going ( most of the time ), which can wail on a don't player badly. As long as you only allow yourself one loss on the don't side, it is a good play ( if rather boring ). All monster rolls have at least three points in them......Seattle rick

[Dylanfreake]

Come out naturals are killers.

[KrapsNovice]

Dylan,

I know you mentioned that a little over 6% of players made 3 or more pass line points. I was wondering if you noted how many players made just two points. I just wonder what the difference is between two points and the three or more.

If this is too much of a headache to figure by all means disregard this message.

Thanks,
KN

[Dylanfreake]

I wrote this down a long time ago when Irish had his website and the Mad Professor gave these stats.
40% of shooters make 1 point
16% 2 points
7% 3 points
3% 4 points
1.2% 5 points
0.5% 6 points

Important note from me: The above are for points made only ; these percentages do not reflect come out losses or wins.

[wild child]

I wrote this down a long time ago when Irish had his website and the Mad Professor gave these stats.
40% of shooters make 1 point
16% 2 points
7% 3 points
3% 4 points
1.2% 5 points
0.5% 6 points

Important note from me: The above are for points made only ; these percentages do not reflect come out losses or wins.

_________
Pass Line wagers only mark up in the win column upon the P/L repeating....
This statistic is generally held as a benchmark... and it serves close enough for our purposes.
No mention of the number of tosses between Come Out and repeat or Seven Out
It drives home the large fall off between P/L 1 to and including six points
and
we can accept the fall off in hands running longer than six rolls.....

w c

[rhythm roller]

And thus, the reason NOT to bet the fire bet!

[Dylanfreake]

It was a rainy day yesterday so I decided to fool around with the DC. I just finished running the numbers on these three above strategies using a DC wager in lieu of a DP wager. I shall post the results later today. Gotta head to the dentist for a tooth cleaning this morning.

[Moe Bettor]

I like and use the DC wager ($15) often rather than the DP on a randy. I too would like to see what you come up with.

[Dylanfreake]

Now playing the DC instead of the DP using the same 325 rolls as above, I came out with these results:

1) $20 Don't Come wager (Always having a DC wager on the felt) plus $140
2) $10 DC laying $12(10) 15(10) 20(10) (Always having a DC wager on the felt) minus $234
3) $10 DC laying $12(10) 15(10) 20(10) (one loss per shooter) plus $108

Most behind during these rolls:

1) $80
2) $259
3) $35

Well, there it is. It looks like the DC was the better bet overall , for these rolls. Anything can happen on a craps table. I was hoping that the DP was going to be superior, since the DP is my bet of choice. Keep in mind this is about 21 to 22 hours of play.