How do you Profit from Short Hands?
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SHOOTITALL
- Posts: 1016
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:42 pm
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
Making $100 a day on a short BR. (BR: $101 (The dollar is for a beer, Mable)
This play may work for you.
1. This is critical: Wait for the shooter to make a Pass. Naturals on CO do not count.
Then, DP for $5 IF you lose, DP $10 bucks. IF you lose, DP for $30 bucks. IF you lose, DP for $55. IF you lose go to the house.
This has a chance because of the following statistics.
There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point.
There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.
There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.
There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.
There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row
Odds on that: 1:83
If you can't win with the above, you are very unlucky.
This play may work for you.
1. This is critical: Wait for the shooter to make a Pass. Naturals on CO do not count.
Then, DP for $5 IF you lose, DP $10 bucks. IF you lose, DP for $30 bucks. IF you lose, DP for $55. IF you lose go to the house.
This has a chance because of the following statistics.
There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point.
There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.
There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.
There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.
There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row
Odds on that: 1:83
If you can't win with the above, you are very unlucky.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
Naturals on the comeout muck those numbers up. Believe me I know from experience. None the less, I use that play from time to time. On a live table you just need to be alert and lay off shooters who try to hit naturals on the come out and look like they may have the ability to do it.SHOOTITALL wrote:Making $100 a day on a short BR. (BR: $101 (The dollar is for a beer, Mable)
This play may work for you.
1. This is critical: Wait for the shooter to make a Pass. Naturals on CO do not count.
Then, DP for $5 IF you lose, DP $10 bucks. IF you lose, DP for $30 bucks. IF you lose, DP for $55. IF you lose go to the house.
This has a chance because of the following statistics.
There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point.
There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.
There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.
There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.
There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row
Odds on that: 1:83
If you can't win with the above, you are very unlucky.
I can't count the number of times a shooter has knocked be off the DP 3 times so I say "they can't do that again, the chances are only 6.66% they can make 3 passes" and they do it again.
I'm a three strikes and I'm out person now. I don't give any given shooter the chance to strike me out more than once per day on the don't side.
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SHOOTITALL
- Posts: 1016
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:42 pm
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
Ms:
You are correct if he makes a pass on the first hand then here comes the naturals. Like everything, there is always a downside in this game but I will take my chances. Following a pass, two naturals will hurt you. On the other hand, this works well on a choppy or cold table.
Then, you have this:
The dice are “red hot” about 4% of the time.
The dice are “ice cold” about 6% of the time.
The table “trends warm” about 20% of the time.
The table “trends cool” about 30% of the time.
The tables are “CHOPPY” about 40% of the time.
Add choppy, trends cool and ice cold = 76%, again it ain't perfect but its not bad. (If it is ice cold, shooter will
probably not make the first pass).
The above is from MP, from August 2006 so it has been here awhile.
You are correct if he makes a pass on the first hand then here comes the naturals. Like everything, there is always a downside in this game but I will take my chances. Following a pass, two naturals will hurt you. On the other hand, this works well on a choppy or cold table.
Then, you have this:
The dice are “red hot” about 4% of the time.
The dice are “ice cold” about 6% of the time.
The table “trends warm” about 20% of the time.
The table “trends cool” about 30% of the time.
The tables are “CHOPPY” about 40% of the time.
Add choppy, trends cool and ice cold = 76%, again it ain't perfect but its not bad. (If it is ice cold, shooter will
probably not make the first pass).
The above is from MP, from August 2006 so it has been here awhile.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
I do like that play and use one similar to it except I go up 1 unit on a loss, down 1 unit on a win including naturals/craps that are winners or losers. The key is the "if you lose go to the house". Some days it just isn't your day. Some days I never have to bet over 3 units and you can win quite a bit with little bankroll.
I started playing this way sometimes because the better half loves to play bingo and we're there 3 hours whether I like it or not on bingo nights. That, and the craps table at the bingo casino is hard for me to beat. They changed the layout to some of the ugliest, slickest microfiber I've ever seen. Only shot I can make work is underhand, so low to the deck that I've seen the dice slide a few inches a couple times when they first land.
I started playing this way sometimes because the better half loves to play bingo and we're there 3 hours whether I like it or not on bingo nights. That, and the craps table at the bingo casino is hard for me to beat. They changed the layout to some of the ugliest, slickest microfiber I've ever seen. Only shot I can make work is underhand, so low to the deck that I've seen the dice slide a few inches a couple times when they first land.
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wild child
- Posts: 1524
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:29 pm
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
Quote attributed to Paulo Coelho :
“Why is patience so important?????????........ Because it makes us pay attention.”
obscure trivia
w c
“Why is patience so important?????????........ Because it makes us pay attention.”
obscure trivia
w c
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SHOOTITALL
- Posts: 1016
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:42 pm
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
MS & Irish: You have no argument from me as I am not a math guy. Although your info seems to be anecdotal.
Now, from the Wiz of Odds:
Once a shooter has hit a point 1 or more times he IS already above average.
40.6% of all shooters hit 1 or more points.
16.1% of all shooters hit 2 or more points
6.66% of shooters hit 3 or more points
and so on by the table on page 1.
Thisisthat:
count points wins % or more or less
594110/- 0//0.5941100000
241267/- 1//0.2412670000 0.4058900000 0.8353770000
97983/- 2// 0.0979830000 0.1646230000 0.9333600000
39547/- 3//0.0395470000 0.0666400000 0.9729070000
16136/- 4//0.0161360000 0.0270930000 0.9890430000
6535/- 5 //0.0065350000 0.0109570000 0.9955780000
2596 /- 6// 0.0025960000 0.0044220000 0.9981740000
1067/- 7 //0.0010670000 0.0018260000 0.9992410000
425 /- 8 //0.0004250000 0.0007590000 0.9996660000
188/- 9 //0.0001880000 0.0003340000 0.9998540000
91/- 10 //0.0000910000 0.0001460000 0.9999450000
55/- 11+ //0.0000550000 0.0000550000 1.0000000000
(And the rest of the story)
I had run a sim of 8,522,945 million dice rolls. Here are those results:
1,000,000/shooters
682796/total points wins
Now, from the Wiz of Odds:
Once a shooter has hit a point 1 or more times he IS already above average.
40.6% of all shooters hit 1 or more points.
16.1% of all shooters hit 2 or more points
6.66% of shooters hit 3 or more points
and so on by the table on page 1.
Thisisthat:
count points wins % or more or less
594110/- 0//0.5941100000
241267/- 1//0.2412670000 0.4058900000 0.8353770000
97983/- 2// 0.0979830000 0.1646230000 0.9333600000
39547/- 3//0.0395470000 0.0666400000 0.9729070000
16136/- 4//0.0161360000 0.0270930000 0.9890430000
6535/- 5 //0.0065350000 0.0109570000 0.9955780000
2596 /- 6// 0.0025960000 0.0044220000 0.9981740000
1067/- 7 //0.0010670000 0.0018260000 0.9992410000
425 /- 8 //0.0004250000 0.0007590000 0.9996660000
188/- 9 //0.0001880000 0.0003340000 0.9998540000
91/- 10 //0.0000910000 0.0001460000 0.9999450000
55/- 11+ //0.0000550000 0.0000550000 1.0000000000
(And the rest of the story)
I had run a sim of 8,522,945 million dice rolls. Here are those results:
1,000,000/shooters
682796/total points wins
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
So 15$ table tonight, here's my plan.
30$ 6&8, 15$ 4&10.
First hit press to 42$ 6&8, buy 25$ 4&10. Cost 46$ from a payout of 35 or 27. 4 numbers pay 49$.
Collect 2nd and 3rd hit & down to 1x odds on passline. Profit 125-133$ -30$ kept in play.
Pass line hit transition to 51$ 5-6-8. Parlay first hit then collect twice rinse&repeat.
On everyone who don't DI, 20$ 5, down to 51$ 5-6-8. Parlay first then collect twice.
What do you think? Taking 5-6-8 covers 8/36 outcomes. But splitting to 4&10 covers 10/36 which at buy level pays a lot more overtime! Asuming you hit equally lol.
30$ 6&8, 15$ 4&10.
First hit press to 42$ 6&8, buy 25$ 4&10. Cost 46$ from a payout of 35 or 27. 4 numbers pay 49$.
Collect 2nd and 3rd hit & down to 1x odds on passline. Profit 125-133$ -30$ kept in play.
Pass line hit transition to 51$ 5-6-8. Parlay first hit then collect twice rinse&repeat.
On everyone who don't DI, 20$ 5, down to 51$ 5-6-8. Parlay first then collect twice.
What do you think? Taking 5-6-8 covers 8/36 outcomes. But splitting to 4&10 covers 10/36 which at buy level pays a lot more overtime! Asuming you hit equally lol.
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
What's your buy in with that amount of action?DanF wrote:So 15$ table tonight, here's my plan.
30$ 6&8, 15$ 4&10.
First hit press to 42$ 6&8, buy 25$ 4&10. Cost 46$ from a payout of 35 or 27. 4 numbers pay 49$.
Collect 2nd and 3rd hit & down to 1x odds on passline. Profit 125-133$ -30$ kept in play.
Pass line hit transition to 51$ 5-6-8. Parlay first hit then collect twice rinse&repeat.
On everyone who don't DI, 20$ 5, down to 51$ 5-6-8. Parlay first then collect twice.
What do you think? Taking 5-6-8 covers 8/36 outcomes. But splitting to 4&10 covers 10/36 which at buy level pays a lot more overtime! Asuming you hit equally lol.
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
500$ is what I want at risk for the day. But my BR is 5k
On a bad night I'm usually out when 350$'s gone.
Remember I bet 20$ on others and 105$ on myself
On a bad night I'm usually out when 350$'s gone.
Remember I bet 20$ on others and 105$ on myself
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
Those numbers are correct. But, If a shooter makes 1 point and then throws 4 sevens and or 11s in a row you have lost 5 DP bets with only one pass being made.SHOOTITALL wrote:MS & Irish: You have no argument from me as I am not a math guy. Although your info seems to be anecdotal.
Now, from the Wiz of Odds:
Once a shooter has hit a point 1 or more times he IS already above average.
40.6% of all shooters hit 1 or more points.
16.1% of all shooters hit 2 or more points
6.66% of shooters hit 3 or more points
and so on by the table on page 1.
Thisisthat:
count points wins % or more or less
594110/- 0//0.5941100000
241267/- 1//0.2412670000 0.4058900000 0.8353770000
97983/- 2// 0.0979830000 0.1646230000 0.9333600000
39547/- 3//0.0395470000 0.0666400000 0.9729070000
16136/- 4//0.0161360000 0.0270930000 0.9890430000
6535/- 5 //0.0065350000 0.0109570000 0.9955780000
2596 /- 6// 0.0025960000 0.0044220000 0.9981740000
1067/- 7 //0.0010670000 0.0018260000 0.9992410000
425 /- 8 //0.0004250000 0.0007590000 0.9996660000
188/- 9 //0.0001880000 0.0003340000 0.9998540000
91/- 10 //0.0000910000 0.0001460000 0.9999450000
55/- 11+ //0.0000550000 0.0000550000 1.0000000000
(And the rest of the story)
I had run a sim of 8,522,945 million dice rolls. Here are those results:
1,000,000/shooters
682796/total points wins
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SHOOTITALL
- Posts: 1016
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:42 pm
Re: How do you Profit from Short Hands?
On your 8/15 post, you mentioned DP, one loss per shooter.
So, you agree with the above since even making one point (naturals don't count), you have a 60/40 advantage. But if you waited until the shooter made one point and then jumped in, your odds go up to 84/16. With a short bank roll, statistically, that seems to be the way to play with that big of an advantage. As mentioned, if anything has happened on a craps table no matter how improbable, it will probably happen again. This is basically you cannot have your cake and eat it, too.
Irish, as mentioned these are not my calculations and it is all on the Wizard's board, I just transposed them. Anything can happen in a craps game including holding the dice for four hours, making 11+ passes, having a 90+ roll hand (I was there for that one. PVW) OR even not one pass during a trip around the table (I have seen that several times). So, pay your money and take your chances. The question is still the same, How do you profit from a short hand and these are my answers to that question and I be done.
So, you agree with the above since even making one point (naturals don't count), you have a 60/40 advantage. But if you waited until the shooter made one point and then jumped in, your odds go up to 84/16. With a short bank roll, statistically, that seems to be the way to play with that big of an advantage. As mentioned, if anything has happened on a craps table no matter how improbable, it will probably happen again. This is basically you cannot have your cake and eat it, too.
Irish, as mentioned these are not my calculations and it is all on the Wizard's board, I just transposed them. Anything can happen in a craps game including holding the dice for four hours, making 11+ passes, having a 90+ roll hand (I was there for that one. PVW) OR even not one pass during a trip around the table (I have seen that several times). So, pay your money and take your chances. The question is still the same, How do you profit from a short hand and these are my answers to that question and I be done.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.