Regression

[London Shooter]

Very much depends on how the darksider is playing and also how much they are risking relative to a right sider per hand.

DP with full odds and no stop loss would look a lot different than a single flat DC “no shooter beats me twice” kind of play.

A martingale DP player with odds will have astonishing negative spikes (for him/her) every once in a while.

[DarthNater]

Not having a "Stop loss" point or martingaling is likely a different set of plots - that might be a analytical cliff .......

What's the rule of thumb - even on a cold table someone will get a good hand once around the circuit. So if that's the case - you'll have more pulses below the X-axis. The duration under should be longer on a cold/cooling table, N8

[stratocasterman]

Answering Heavy's question...

If my toss is on, I have started utilizing a four number inside or outside $66 or $44 regression of 2 or 3:1 (due to a smaller BR restraint), taking two full hits before regressing to $18 (three numbers) for two more hits, then down. I just hate leaving any money on the table. If I make the point, I just stick with an initial $24, (four numbers) bet and reduce to $18 (three numbers), alternating the bets from the last number tossed.

I may be cutting off my potential profit but, I think that is few and far between. Reality says the SO is coming. What's the point in risking/winning something up front, just to turn around and give it back or then some?

[rhythm roller]

I Like a regression play for myself because once I hit the regression I become more relaxed for the rest of the hand---physically relaxed, not crazy betting relaxed. I usually start with the $204 across for two hits and then regress to $18 6 and 8 and pass line with odds and press, spread out or even Come Bet with odds. Kind of depends on how my shot looks at that poimt in the hand. Not sure if this a great way to play but I don't toss many PSO's so I am comfortable with it.

Couple of questions for you all.
(1) Does your regression at all depend on what numbers you toss prior to regression? For instance, stay up somewhat on which ever numbers your two hits were instead of focus on the 6 & 8? Is that just chasing? I go back and forth on my thinking on this one.

(2) I play mostly in LV. I have gotten snide comments at several casinos when I regress my bets. I even think they sometimes put something in the computer about my regression play. Has anyone else experienced this?

[heavy]

I have gotten snide comments at several casinos when I regress my bets. I even think they sometimes put something in the computer about my regression play. Has anyone else experienced this?

Many years ago at Rio I was running a $110 inside - two hits and down to $44 inside play. After I did this for a while the boxman looked at me and said "you're playing with scared money, Steve." I said something to the effect of "you're goddamn right I am. I hate losing a single dollar. But look around the table. I'm up around $800 now. How's everyone else doing?" That put a stop to the comments. These days I'd be more likely to remind him he's in the entertainment business and I did not find his comments entertaining . . . or . . . "when it's your money at risk you can play it how you want to. Since this is my money . . .

[rhythm roller]

Thanks guys and I am sure you are right about the computer stuff now that I think about it.

Heavy, that is pretty much the attitude I took with the stickman although maybe not as strongly as you would.

When I regressed he screamed loud enough for at least three tables to hear, "I just hate it when people do that!" I just replied that it was my money and that is how I would like to play it right now. I think his biggest disservice was to the lady shooting. She seemed fairly new to Craps and I don't think she knew who he was yelling at or why and of course she SO the next toss. The look he gave me clearly tried to blame that SO on me but I knew who was really at fault and just kept my cool. What an a$$!

[stratocasterman]

Way to keep your cool rhythm roller! Ignoring the snide comments/bet suggestions and playing with a cool head is some of the best advice given to me here at APC Forum...

[DanF]

Ya, they are paid to play with your mind and make you leave the money on the table. When they know you are winning/losing a lot and keep coming.

[Irukanji]

I was once at a casino where I got snide remarks for setting and the stick did a false move on me of pretending to send the dice my way and as I was reaching down to set them he pulled them away. "False start" he said laughing.

I kept my cool. When I got the dice, I set them with the normal routine and 'threw' them. Meaning I set them but just did the motion of throwing but left the dice on the table. All heads turned in the supposed direction of the dice throw. Lol! The expression on their faces was priceless when they realized there was no dice there. And as they turned to look at me they saw the dice were still on the table. Bazinga!

They got the message.

[heavy]

I've been known to call a "BALK" or two myself.

[London Shooter]

ha ha great story - I'll have to remember to do something like that if ever the stick is playing up with me in a similar fashion

[DanF]

So, two new higher roller betting patterns today.

Passline bet on myself only, 50$ 5&9 + 60$ 8

First hit down to 66$ inside.
Second hit full presses on single number at a time 35-42-42-35.
Collect 3 times per pressed number. Then press again.

Standard mid bankroll play at 500$.

For 1000$ play:
Go 125$ 5&9, 150$ 8.

First hit down to 154$ inside
Next hit press 1 by one to 75-90-90-75.
Collect 3 times each number and cut back to 154$ inside level.

I tried it this morning on an app for fun and it is holding itself since it’s paid by first hit.

[stratocasterman]

Irukanji...more betting strategies to run through Wincraps!

[DanF]

Wincraps doesn’t simulate a high SRR thrower does it?

[stratocasterman]

Irukanji was razzin' me about liking/running some of your betting strategies in a few of my Wincraps roll files from your Trip Report post. Too much time on my hands, haha.

I really do enjoy the different betting strategies you post DanF! Depending on the SRR of the roll file I use, some of the strategies you have posted make nice money, very fast...

[memo]

(2) I play mostly in LV. I have gotten snide comments at several casinos when I regress my bets. I even think they sometimes put something in the computer about my regression play. Has anyone else experienced this?

I have been a regression better for a long time...
I will usually go 130/135 across. Take three hits and down to 81/78 across. My goal is to press back up to 50:1 payout and then...infinity and beyond. I used to do the 204, but tired of training the dealers. Both ways work..However setting up the 204 only to regress it soon, sets up a bit of tension...Which I try to avoid from the get go.

I never get any heat or snide comments..
Once I do my regression, I will always tip the dealer. Usually from the returned chips....buck on my line bet, buck for dealer bet, and minimal odds bet. ie. two dollars for a 5/9. I will add to that as the hand progresses.

Once you do this, especially the second time...The staff is eager to see you make a regression, and of course the point.
Negativity goes out the window...I have seen them very quietly defend my action to a curious TGS.

Memo

[DanF]

Irukanji was razzin' me about liking/running some of your betting strategies in a few of my Wincraps roll files from your Trip Report post. Too much time on my hands, haha.

I really do enjoy the different betting strategies you post DanF! Depending on the SRR of the roll file I use, some of the strategies you have posted make nice money, very fast...

Cool, I didn’t know you could adjust it higher then 6.

But still I know my numbers are solid...I am doing good on tables with em. And so are my friends.

The biggest mistake people do is not to collect good money early enough. Which kills you on the long run/table round.

I tested the strategy on an app today and had like 9 bad rolls...but still only 1 good roll pushed me 1200$ ahead.

Why it’s important to regress after first hit only? You cut the exposure and start the progression on house money earlier.

[six shooter]

I believe in regression for medium to hot table, one or two hits on a choppy table and playing the dont's on a cold table. The choppy table could go either way you could play the do or don't depending on the numbers being thrown or not being thrown...lost numbers.

On a choppy or medium table, keep in mind, it takes five hits to get past your original bet profit. See below.

One Hit and Down

Assume you bet inside numbers 5,6,8 and 9 for $44.


Win -- Profits with win -- Profit if 7 Occurs

1 ------- $14 ------- Loss $30
2 ------- $28 ------- Loss $16
3 ------- $42 ------- Loss $2
4 ------- $56 ------- Profit $12
5 ------- $70 ------- Profit $26


You finally surpassed your original profit of $14 on the 5th hit.

The point is, you need to have several strategies for each table.....hot, medium and cold. Take what the table gives and beat every shooter with your information. Small wins add up on each shooter and then you walk in to a good hand.

[heavy]

Great point.

[Sputnick]

Soberring information. If we can fight the need to be in action, obviously less risk with one and down on a choppy table.