A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

[stratocasterman]

Now, lets go with you Stratoman, you are telling STEVE O that he needs a Bank Roll to play this system.
Now tell STEVE O , how much he needs to be able to play this Martingale/ double up/ Let it ride/ system.

Thank you Stratocasterman. Jaime

I can only suggest a BR or "ceiling" that one is comfortable with.

Personally, from what I have seen in all my test data shoes, 160 Units was the highest bet/LTD level I needed to make to recover my losses basically.

I did bust on a couple other shoes but, was not willing to go any higher and just called it a loss. I could have continued to throw money at those shoes and eventually won. It's all up to you and how far you are willing to go.

"Crapsjourney" stated what he would do sometimes was just call it a loss, STOP and just start over again. This is very viable when you look at the amount of individual shoe wins vs. losses.

My test data shoes overall wins (98.33%) averaged between 25-70 Units Profit. Doesn't take very long to get your loss back and continue on the Profit path!

To put an actual EXACT BR number on it, doesn't really work for me but, I think the test data shoes give us an idea of how many losing bet levels it takes before a Win occurs, getting us our money back with a profit. That is where the 160 Unit comes from and an amount that I would be willing to bet for an average 30% ROI.

Personally too, after I lose a 60+ Unit bet, sometimes I am looking to switch to Player bets or suspend betting to seek another table/shoe, and then pick back up where I left off at. Guess I am just not to hip to losing, when I KNOW I can be winning at likely 98.33% of the other tables...

Hope this helps and make sure to look at my example shoe I posted...hopefully, it will give you a better feel for things.

[SteveO]

Thanks SCM. I have been looking at don't pass on the Craps table because it is easier to find a $5 Craps table than a $5 Baccarat table.

In the meantime, I am running through my Excel database of Baccarat shoes and finding those that have the longest losing streak before a double win (betting player, not banker) and then playing though these worst sections. So far in the database of like 120 shoes, the worst case is 27 plays before a double player win. Highest and final bet was 392 units and it went like this:
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W

I am also experimenting with DB4L in the premise of finding more double wins. Jury is still out on this one.

[stratocasterman]

Thanks SCM. I have been looking at don't pass on the Craps table because it is easier to find a $5 Craps table than a $5 Baccarat table.

In the meantime, I am running through my Excel database of Baccarat shoes and finding those that have the longest losing streak before a double win (betting player, not banker) and then playing though these worst sections. So far in the database of like 120 shoes, the worst case is 27 plays before a double player win. Highest and final bet was 392 units and it went like this:

I am also experimenting with DB4L in the premise of finding more double wins. Jury is still out on this one.

OK SteveO, I'm not sure what your base bet is but I'll just utilize a typical Base bet of 1Unit and see what happens here for fun...
BET WON TOTAL

L -1 0 -1
L -1 0 -2
L -1 0 -3 3 Loss STOP, wait for a Win Target Bet
L
L
L
L
W
L -4 0 -7 Loss to Date PLUS 1Unit, wait for a Win Target Bet
L
W
L -8 0 -15 Loss to Date PLUS 1Unit, wait for a Win Target Bet
W
L -17 0 -32 Loss to Date PLUS 10% rounded up, wait for a Win Target Bet
L
L
L
W
L -35 0 -67 Loss to Date PLUS 10% rounded up, wait for a Win Target Bet
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W -74 0 +7 Loss to Date PLUS 10% rounded up for a 7Unit Profit

This is just simple, relatively low Unit betting to recover a Loss to Date plus a bit of Profit for your troubles. Granted it is similar to watching "paint dry" or a "pine tree grow" but it does eventually deliver a Profit in an unusually bad losing shoe.

This 27 level losing streak (being your worst described losing shoe) in 120 shoes, is very similar to what I saw in my real data shoe testing, on the couple of shoes I called it quits at. After my 3rd "double up" loss, I am most generally looking to switch from either Banker/Player or find myself another shoe.

Just for grins, I'll tell you something you can do to get under a table limit. Just bet the table minimum bet on Banker and Player, then add an amount you wish to bet to either Banker or Player. I'm not sure how the US casinos view this but, a bet is a bet. Here, if you make bets on both Banker and Player, the only thing they will do is NOT allow you to squeeze or touch the cards. The dealer will just let someone else play the hand or just deal them straight out. There is ALWAYS a way to get around things if you just get creative.

What's kind of fun for me here is the same situation. I under bet the table minimum sometimes until my Loss to Date amount rises above the table minimum. At that point, whomever has the most amount bet on Banker or Player naturally gets to "squeeze" the cards. I find it very gratifying to be able to be betting a decent amount of units, get to "squeeze" the cards and get the WIN!

Thanks for the input!

[SteveO]

Strat, could you post the shoe that got you to a 160 unit bet? Just that particular section not the whole thing.

[Knick111]

Good morning to you strat man,

DO you think is possible to beat this game called baccarrat, if i sit down on the same table with you AND i play the opposite
of what ever you bet, be it the PLAYER or BANKER if i have the same bank roll that you have?

What i am talking about is [ i play the same system you are playing ] would the casino allowed me to play this way?...Jaime.

[crapsjourney]

There is no set bankroll. But it’s dependant on your situation.

I use a $1 baccarat computer terminal at my casino and just feed in $100. And I start at $5 base bet.

Thanks SCM for the tip on how to play at high min tables.

It’s similar to what’s been suggested for playing at higher min craps tables.

You can refine the target 3 play as SCM has mentioned to fit your situation.

It’s a beautiful thing. I’ve spoken about it briefly on my podcast before and I’ve been meaning to record some videos about it as well.

Might even be time for YouTube live stream and we can all get in there and play a shoe live via video screen share.

Anyone interested in doing that ?

[Knick111]

April 25 2018.

Aaron, I can give you a system Where you will never lose.
First tell me what happens to my bet if there is a [ TIE ]?

In this system you need two players.
example, player one will only play the banker , if is a 10 dollar table he will not play more then 10 dollars .
he will not change his bet at all WHEN playing with his partner that night.

you will have to practice With your partner all night this system before you go to your Casino I will tell you what your partner must do to win all the time WHEN playing baccarat with this system.

At no time can the casino know that you are playing with a partner. I think they would throw you out if they notice.
Jaime.

please tell me what happens when there is a [ tie. ]

[stratocasterman]

Good morning to you strat man,

DO you think is possible to beat this game called baccarrat, if i sit down on the same table with you AND i play the opposite
of what ever you bet, be it the PLAYER or BANKER if i have the same bank roll that you have?

What i am talking about is [ i play the same system you are playing ] would the casino allowed me to play this way?...Jaime.

Sure! I have play/tested several shoes where I bet the same way on both sides. As long as you get several "back to back" wins on both sides you can win from BOTH sides at the same time!

Yes, I would love to have a partner to play both sides with. Just split the Profits!

Might even be time for YouTube live stream and we can all get in there and play a shoe live via video screen share.

Anyone interested in doing that ?

I'm game!

[stratocasterman]

Strat, could you post the shoe that got you to a 160 unit bet? Just that particular section not the whole thing.

SteveO...could not find it exactly but, here is one I tested this morning that fits the criteria your looking for. Note that I SWITCHED betting from Banker to Player after losing a 102U bet. Normally I would have quit or switched way before this but, I decided to play it out. Banker was just getting plowed after 20 levels so I decided to try ONE more bet but, SWITCH to Player for 224Units because of the Player to Banker win ratio in the shoe to that point! Thankfully, it paid off. That would have been a "brown trouser" moment for sure in the casino...

-200 0 1500
-100 0 1400
-100 0 1300
0 0 1300
-500 0 800
0 0 800
-1000 0 -200
0 0 -200
0 0 -200
0 0 -200
0 0 -200
-2200 0 -2400
0 0 -2400
0 0 -2400
-4600 0 -7000
0 0 -7000
0 0 -7000
-10200 0 -17200
0 0 -17200
0 0 -17200
-22400 44800 5200

52Units Profit after being down 172U. A loss of the 224U bet would have been a 396U Loss! Ironically, the shoe results ended up being a:
B=36
P=30
T=6

You would think that I would never had gotten this high with the bet but, that is just how it goes sometimes. You have to get the "feel" for the "back to back" wins. If they aren't coming, SWITCH or get OUT and find another shoe!

Yes, the big Loss CAN happen! You have to know your own ceiling and how much you can Win on the average shoe. That way, you know how many shoe wins it takes to get any big loss back.

[Knick111]

I guess Aron has no interest in my offer on how to beat the game of baccarat.

This offer which is free to you, will be send to you by A [ PM].

This offer is just for one person, The first person that tells me what happens to my bet WHEN there is a tie , and i have a bet on player OR banker.
I told you how to beat HORSE RACING and now i will tell the first person that tells me what happens when there is a tie in the game of baccarat, does the bet becomes a PUSH or not. Jaime.

[SteveO]

Thanks Strat. I’m still in practice mode and I know I need to work through some nasty shoes to see how best to react.

Aaron I’m game for live stream play depending on scheduling of course but tell us some more about your pod casts.

[KrapsNovice]

Jamie when a tie comes up it is a push your banker/player bet neither wins or loses. I am interested in learning your method. Please PM.

[crapsjourney]

I’m in Australia so time zones will need to be factored in. Plus I work 14 hour days. So my window is small. I think a weekend is best. My Sunday is USA Saturday. So we’ll aim for that. Maybe next weekend. I have to work out how to do a live stream first.

@jamie The holy grail of not losing a wager is a quest I’m not into. I prefer to focus on profits and winning more when I win than when I lose. I’m very zen about it. You can’t have a win without a loss, and vice versa.

[Knick111]

Good morning to you Aaron and Heavy,

don't know why my PM system is not working, Heavy do you know.

[stratocasterman]

The first person that tells me what happens to my bet WHEN there is a tie , and i have a bet on player OR banker.

Jaime, a Tie in Baccarat results in a push, no Win no Loss, for either a Banker or Player bet. Now any SIDE bets like a Banker or Player Pair, Tie, Super Six or Dragon bets etc. are live and subject to their individual results for a payout or loss.

Hope that explains it.

Come to think of it, I do remember coming across some type of system, years back, that had a team of two people betting Banker and Player with a betting system based on the outcome of every result. Trouble is...I don't remember how it was done.

I know you had mentioned something about two Players teaming up to play both sides.

Yes, my PM doesn't work sometimes too...

Thanks Strat. I’m still in practice mode and I know I need to work through some nasty shoes to see how best to react.

SteveO...I am doing EXACTLY the same thing! Trying to figure out when is the right time to either SWITCH to or from Banker/Player or to just STOP and grab the next shoe and carry things over. Let me know any of your findings.

[KrapsNovice]

Good morning to you Aaron and Heavy,

don't know why my PM system is not working, Heavy do you know.

Jamie, I tried to PM you it does not work for me as well.

[KrapsNovice]

Jamie, I somehow sent you a PM please respond when you have time.

Thanks.

[Knick111]

April 27 2018,

krapsnovice, for some reason my PM system does not work in Puerto Rico.

coming in OR going out. Jaime.

[KrapsNovice]

Jamie here is my email:

[Knick111]

April 27 2018,

Is not my day, that email does not show up as valid on my system.

SO Aaron and krapsnoyice, i will give you half the system tonight.

buy in is , please play on 25 dollar table..... 20 units....x 25 dollars equals 500 dollars.

team of 2 players is 1,000 dollars. BANK ROLL.

Every time player 1 wins 2 times in a row, the bank roll goes up 25 dollars.

every time player 2 wins 2 times in a row, the bank goes up 25 dollars

That happens because player 1 will cover player 2 bets AND vice a versa, i hope you are still with me.


Right there , more or less i gave you the system on how to win at baccarat.
every time one of the team player wins, he wins one unit of 25 dollars.

Has any body on this board figure out the system yet? Jaime