Let's Build a DON'T Strategy from the Ground Up

[heavy]

Yes, I know all about the horse built by committee. Here's a photo:

camel.jpg (21.32 KiB) Viewed 17162 times

Nevertheless, I think we have enough Don't players here on the site that we can come up with something approaching the definitive Don't player's strategy. Here are some of the things I'd like you to consider:

1. Entry point into the game - how do you decide when to get on the Don'ts for your first bet?

2. What will be your first bet and why? Assume a $10 table minimum. Will you play a Don't Pass bet first, wait until a point is established then, at a predetermined entry point play a Don't Come bet? Will you just Lay against the point? Will you Lay some other number? I'd like to know your play and why you go that way.

3. What will be your second bet and why? Will you have more than one Don't wager up on a shooter per hand? Will you make continuous Don't Come wagers? In what denominations will you make your bets? Will you lay odds on your DP and DC bets? Will you simply Lay another number? Details as to when and why.

4. What will be your course of action if you get knocked off of one bet? What if you are knocked off of two bets? Do you lay additional odds after getting knocked off the first one, chasing that losss? Do you take down odds on the second bet and just wait for a decision on the flat bet? Do you place the point as a hedge against getting knocked off of the first bet? Do you make another DC bet or Lay another number, chasing losses? You are at a fork in the road. Which fork do you take and why?

5. Do you continue to play the Don'ts if you lose on the first shooter? Do you change your bet size or your betting strategy? At what point do your transition to the right side, if at all? At what point do you abandon this table in search of greener pastures? Do you continue full speed ahead untli you hit your loss limit? Where do you go next?

6. At what point do we call it a session. Loss limit? Win goal? Too many DI's on the table?

From the ground-up, gents. And if you like a play someone has described please chime in and let us know. At the end of this thread I'd like to see us come up with a consensus Don't strategy that doesn't look like a camel. We might even call it the Committee System. Let's hear it.

[Moe Bettor]

Yes. The don't is a grind, but you rarely cut deeply into your buy in and can usually get a profit. That's a thing I've noticed at the tables. While others are hitting the ATM, my rack is usually a bit up or slightly down by the time a decent roll gets going. Random shooter shooting for 2nd pt. $10 DC to a number, lay small odds in back and let that sit. If I'm knocked off, I pull back and watch. Might switch sides depending.

[stratocasterman]

1. Entry point into the game - how do you decide when to get on the Don'ts for your first bet?

After I see the first SO, "chicken feeder" or known "not so good" shooter is up next to shoot.

2. What will be your first bet and why? Assume a $10 table minimum. Will you play a Don't Pass bet first, wait until a point is established then, at a predetermined entry point play a Don't Come bet? Will you just Lay against the point? Will you Lay some other number? I'd like to know your play and why you go that way.

$10 PL, $10 DP Doey/Don't
This is a setup move to protect my future DC bets against a SO.

3. What will be your second bet and why? Will you have more than one Don't wager up on a shooter per hand? Will you make continuous Don't Come wagers? In what denominations will you make your bets? Will you lay odds on your DP and DC bets? Will you simply Lay another number? Details as to when and why.

I'll lay and wait until after the third roll/including the point roll.
Then lay enough odds on the DP to cover, and also make, a $20 DC bet. I am willing to place two each DC bets, consecutively, then take my DP odds down and let it ride.

4. What will be your course of action if you get knocked off of one bet? What if you are knocked off of two bets? Do you lay additional odds after getting knocked off the first one, chasing that losss? Do you take down odds on the second bet and just wait for a decision on the flat bet? Do you place the point as a hedge against getting knocked off of the first bet? Do you make another DC bet or Lay another number, chasing losses? You are at a fork in the road. Which fork do you take and why?

I'll only replace one DP that gets beaten. If 2's and 3s show up, I'll rack it and keep on.
If both DC bets get beaten, I'll just wait for the hand to resolve.

5. Do you continue to play the Don'ts if you lose on the first shooter? Do you change your bet size or your betting strategy? At what point do your transition to the right side, if at all? At what point do you abandon this table in search of greener pastures? Do you continue full speed ahead untli you hit your loss limit? Where do you go next?

I'll reload again, same bets for the second round.
Can't go to greener pastures here...there ain't any!
If beaten again by the same shooter I will PAUSE and wait until I see a "chicken feeder" or known "not so good" shooter and resume the same Wizard’s INVINCIBLE “Seven IS ALWAYS MY POINT” Don’t Come Play

6. At what point do we call it a session. Loss limit? Win goal? Too many DI's on the table?

Loss limit is $200. Satisfied with a $100 Win.
Too many DI's on the table? Hahahahaha! Ain't going to happen here!

[wild child]

There is a lot of intelligentsia being applied to this subject...
.
Would we give consideration to break points prior to risking our Don't Bet ?
.
At table observation may at best just be empirical information....
Empirical information may fall short
of being considered evidence
or
pure science...
.
Empirical information contributes highly in this conversation...
( Perhaps only in my opinion )
.
The However Factor appears there are a greater number of
first Pass Line Box Numbers
and
perhaps a diminishing number of second ,third,fourth,fifth,sixth
repeating Pass Line numbers
By the time such an extended hand runs on the propensity
of a seventh Box Number
( and beyond )
repeater Box Numbers
fall deeply into the single digit percentage ( and/or fraction of one % )......
.
$5Bill uses eight rolls as an entry point
for
his successful Do Not Come Wager game Plan ....
.
Perhaps a viable DO NOT WAGER Game Plan
is a way to hold on
until
by observation
sequential repeating Box Numbers catch our attention....

just my input
w c

[heavy]

I'm open to pretty much anything when it comes to new strategies. And let's face it. Most new strategies are simply reconstructed old strategies - sometimes with tweaks - sometimes with entirely new elements - but at the core they're the same.

[Knick111]

I would bet 100 dollars on don't pass AND 10 DOLLARS on ANY SEVEN, if i win i would let it ride / 190 dollars
on the Don't pass line AND 10 dollars on any SEVEN. Then start over again if i win or lose.

I will bet if a player, plays this way for 3 hours on randies, HE will win a lot of money.
Jaime.

[London Shooter]

My fundamental view in this is easy: build whatever strategy you want from the don'ts but if you start having to hedge your DPs and DCs right from the off, the strategy is instantly flawed.

[heavy]

if you start having to hedge your DPs and DCs right from the off, the strategy is instantly flawed.

Ba-da-boom!

Every time you bet $10 on the Any Seven it's like throwing $1.78 in the trash.

Playing a Doey-Don't doubles the amount of juice you give up to the house.

Just play the largest DP or DC bet your bankroll and your sevens risk tolerance can accommodate and go from there. You'll save money over the long haul.

[SHOOTITALL]

I have written this one before, it is a combination of OH-CM and MP's Grand Martingale.

$5.00 Game:

$5 DP (lose)
$5 DP (lose) Now go to MP GM progression:

$15 DP (lose)
$35 DP (lose) (actually, I stop here. I have reached it but never lost at this level)
$75 DP and stop here. (If I have lost five in a row, ain't my day, that's losing with a 93% chance of winning)

MP's negative progression:
First:
The dice are “red hot” about 4% of the time.

The dice are “ice cold” about 6% of the time.
The table “trends warm” about 20% of the time.
The table “trends cool” about 30% of the time.
The tables are “CHOPPY” about 40% of the time.
The Progression:
$5, $15, $35, $75, $155
Your odds of winning:
1st 60%
2nd 84%
3rd 93%
4th 97%
5th 98.2%
( 1-out-of-every-200 players will make 6 PL points in a row)
Here is the crux of the above: His progression starts AFTER the shooter has made his FIRST POINT. That excludes CO winners, they are not points.
I tried this and it works but you are: "There is a 40% chance that a random-roller will make his first PL-Point." There with your TUMA 60% of the time. That sucks so that is why I incorporated the OH-CM then transitioned to MP's progression.
Oh, yea, IF I get skinned with 2 CO winner in a row, I am done with that shooter.
(a CO winner, PL winner is fine, then the second tier) (If the game is $10, make adjustments: $10, $15, $35, $75,(done) or $155
(to read MP's article on this: http://dicesetter.com/mp/dmad127dodge.htm)

[Moe Bettor]

Good one SIA! Love this topic. Randy come out roll let's say goes to 9. $10 table. I put $13 DC..goes to 8. Place the 8 for $12. $13 DC allows all numbers to produce a profit. Kick a buck all day. Two inside box numbers and I reverse from the donts.

[SHOOTITALL]

Thnick: You are on the right track. With a DC or a DP and you get a hit on the 6 or 8, now if the hand extends, easy transition.
For instance: Shooter rolls a 10. You place the 6/8. First roll 8. Second roll 8. Now, you can start placing numbers without losing your initial plus win. Next roll a 9. Place the 9. Next roll an 8. Either press the 8 or place the 5 or press the 9. The 5 and 6 have not rolled and they may never roll or the next 10 rolls may be one or the other or both. Got to use your intuition (which is wrong probably 50% of the time)
Anyways, many many options that will fit your game and comfort level.

[eastcoast]

Heavy I seem to remember you had in one of your newsletters (a couple years back) about 2 players, both Darksiders, and even though they played quite a bit, what they had in common was they were betting 25.00 DP, and adhered to a either a time or loss limit. What was interesting about the article is that you had met one of them some months later and he was doing well with the same method of play.

[r_ventura_23]

When I used to go to Atlantic City all the time I used to play the Patrick system....always did well. Now with little kids, and not getting there as much, I want to bet right.

$10 Table. $10 Pass and Don't Pass. Lay odds to win $20 on DP. $15 DC. Take odds off DP....then $10 DC followed by one more $10 DC. Replace only twice. The only time I hedge the 11, is if I get a hit on a 2 or 3. Why give it right back?

[heavy]

Eastcoast - there were actually three guys in that story. The guy I ran across (from Texas) living in Vegas was playing $25 DP plus $3 hop sevens. If the hope sevens won he parlayed it twice, looking for a hit on a the second parlay he was done for the day. He told me he hit it at least once a day.

The problem you run across these days is that there are so few hop bet layouts out there that display the sevens anymore. Nowadays instead of a $3 hop sevens bet they book you on a $3 big red. Kills the idea of parlaying for profit IMHO.

[mssthis1]

My fundamental view in this is easy: build whatever strategy you want from the don'ts but if you start having to hedge your DPs and DCs right from the off, the strategy is instantly flawed.

DOUBLE BA-DA BOOM!

Ditto here.

On a 10X or higher game I'd make one DP bet and $30 odds, no matter what the point is. Go up a $30 odds unit on a loss, down a $30 unit on a win. Raise the base bet only when I have to so the required odds can be laid. 3 losses per shooter including naturals. It does take bankroll and lots of patience. It isn't going to be a strategy everyone can use. I've been over 10 bets in the hole more than once. When you get that far down it's either going to take a long time to dig out or you'll need to adjust your odds increment bet to a larger amount.

For a strategy that would fit more bankrolls I'd make a lone $10 DP bet or DC, no odds. If I got down $50 I'd go to $15, if I got down another $75 I'd go to at least $20, $25 if my bank could stand it.

If you want to add a little excitement to it, I'd press $5 each win after 2 in a row.

[220Inside]

This has been a great discussion so far. It's diverged into two, intertwined, topics. The first is obviously different takes on a don't strategy, since that was the original premise of the discussion thread. The other is the subject of bankroll and proper sizing of bets in relation to it. While these two should go hand in hand, as they are inseparable, we rarely discuss the latter even though it really is one of the most important aspects of successful table play, particularly over the long term.

[KrapsNovice]

There is an older gentleman that I have run into at the tables. He is quiet and does not engage in conversation. His game is consistent and for the most part when I paid attention seen him leave in the green. Few regulars told me he leaves in the green regularly and his game lasts an hour or so. After he has made his nut sometimes he will stick around and bet minimum dp.

He lays 100 each on the 4 and 10 and place bets 40$ each on the 5 and 9 and 50$ each on the 6 and 8. If he gets knocked off his first lay he takes down the 5 and 9, if he gets knocked off his second lay 6 and 8 come down and waits for the next player.

I tried his play and was fortunate to win a few bucks only to give it back at the poker table losing on the river. Truth be told I was reluctant to try this play at first due to the 4 and 10 paying out half your wager but I dived in and did better than I thought. Not sure I would play this again but it was fun getting in on a long hand when only inside numbers showed up.

[stratocasterman]

He lays 100 each on the 4 and 10 and place bets 40$ each on the 5 and 9 and 50$ each on the 6 and 8. If he gets knocked off his first lay he takes down the 5 and 9, if he gets knocked off his second lay 6 and 8 come down and waits for the next player.

You know, this is basically how I played my first and only craps tournament, only I stayed up on all the inside bets for every roll. Got $400 for 4th Place in a little more than 3 hours play. Only difference was that I was ALL IN on every roll of the dice to make the most of my bets. Worked like a charm until the finals, got my 4 and 10 both knocked off right at the last to drop my total winnings. It was big fun! Might have won the dang thing if it weren't for those knockoffs. Funny thing about it, even after everyone seeing me bet that way in the beginning, NOBODY would bet like that even after seeing me win my way to the finals. I loved it and can't wait for the next craps tournament there.

Good observation KrapsNovice!

[KrapsNovice]

Strato, I tried out out the above system once again the 4's and 10's were hot and I got a 500$ drawdown but I switched tables and got it all back on a nice long hand. I played smaller stakes than the older gentleman. Like most systems it is all about bankroll and getting out once you are near or make your goal. As for baccarat I recall looking over Seth's blog a while back when a supposedly winning baccarat player sung its praises on other forums. If I may ask how many shoes have you tested it on.

Best of Luck!

[stratocasterman]

KrapsNovice...I hear ya on the BR and goal for sure!

As not to hijack this thread, refer back to the thread https://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... f=8&t=5561 for your answer