A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

[stratocasterman]

A highly interesting day and further proof that Banker "back to back" Target Betting appears to occur frequently for Wins within most every shoe, EVEN when Player is predominate within that shoe! I have revised my progression approach after much testing to just Target Betting the second Banker "back to back" Win with the following bet amounts, largest bet ceiling and recovery bet amount.

I bet Banker only.
I Target bet only (after seeing the first Banker Win in any potential Banker run, bet for the second Banker "back to back" Win, if Banker Wins, continue to bet the minimum 3U bet until a loss).
Base/Initial bet is 3U.
Consecutive progression bet Unit amounts, after losses, were as follows...7U, 15U, 31U. After any 31U loss, revert to making just 25U Recovery Bets until you catch back up to your total LTD (Loss to Date). I don't ALWAYS make my next bet, a 25U Recovery Bet!!! I will sometimes wait until I get back into a "Winning" way before attempting to recover with the 25U bet. YOU be the judge of when YOU think the time is right to Recover past losses. YOU and your wins will be a great indicator when it is time to Recover.

I have a few other little "quirk" rules I utilize (observations from years and thousands of shoes) if your interested. Don't ask me why, I just use them because overall, they just seem to work out for me!
1> Never bet the next Target after an opening Banker run Win of a resulting score of six ("Banker Super Six"). I don't know why but, Player or a Tie most generally follows. I suggest a small Tie bet. One or the other seems to hit afterwards most of the time. Within a shoe, I most always see one Tie after a Banker "Super Six".
2> I just absolutely refuse to bet after a Tie, overall, it just doesn't seem to work out for me, whichever way I bet. Yes, it's still a 50/50 bet but, like I said, it just doesn't seem to work out for me very well on average...
3> After the 4th run in either a Player or Banker run, I just LOVE betting for that 5th Win in the run. I usually bet DOUBLE my usual bet and get it!

OK, enough of that, this is a Trip Report!

Both of today's shoes were Player dominate. I played them consecutively and completely, as one shoe.
37P-29B and
35P-33B

Highest bet = 60U Recovery Bet...Yes, a "brown trouser" moment for sure but, I felt the time was right as Banker was making a run. Generally the BEST time to Recover is within a run!
Highest Recovery bet = 60U
1 each Recovery bet
4 Bets each = 15U

61 Total Bets
32 Bet Wins
29 Bet Losses
612U Won
499U Bet
113U Profit

My overall player and table observation of both shoes was:

I watched the majority of players flat betting and, LOSING terribly. Some would progressively bet a bit after a Win only. They came and they went, as I sat through both shoes in their entirety. Most all players seemed to have NO strategy. They flip-flopped on their betting (B or P) and upon consecutive losses; started playing/betting scared, before they exited the table.

Believe it or not, (and not trying to be the all knowing smart-ass in the room), I can just about tell you who will win and who will lose anymore after observing play for several hands...it's inevitable. Only a pure ass lightening luck strike would EVER turn around the losses I see some of these players endure. I do notice a few people watching me after awhile. They start to notice the chip pile slowly increasing but, I do slip a few chips in the pocket now and then to make things seem like I am NOT winning. I play very inconspicuously for the most part but, when I place a 15U - 31U bet out there on Banker, 99.99% of the table's players jump ALL over Banker thinking I must have a guaranteed "crystal ball" or "ESP" moment coming! I usually do but, they have NO clue why I'm highly sure! You would think SOMEONE would ask or say something after awhile but, usually it is just a high five moment and that's it. I settle back down into my inconspicuous play and no one seems to be the wiser...

There were a few Target betting players (standup players) who would grace the table for just 2-3 large bets and then leave. Some won, some lost but, it was hard for me to tell what their overall Target bet strategy was, watching in so few of bets.

In both shoes, there were NO runs over a total of 5, B or P. There were several segments of BPBPBP which led to the 15U bets for sure

Day Trip Scoreboard Wins
Michael - 3
Casino - 0

[KrapsNovice]

Michael, I have played bacc for about two decades I have only seen one person that consistently beat the game. That being said you mentioned that you could tell who will lose etc... I personally chart the players now and bet against the biggest loser. I have found that is the best play and most winning strategy for me at least.

If I may ask how many units bankroll do you need for your system. After the 31U bet how deep are you willing to go with repeating 25U bets to recover loses.

At the casino I play baccarat there are a little under 30 tables depending on the time of day. I know of a few players there that lose 8/9 or 9/10 sessions. I just do not understand it but they rarely win at all if ever. I kind of scope out the tables they are on and try to sit at the same table. Since your intuition is right perhaps you can add this play to your bag of tricks. Best of Luck!

[crapsjourney]

Thanks SCM for the update.

This is a snap shot of results from learning T3P over 99 shoes from early 2017. Lots of mistakes early on, but it allowed me to get a handle on it.

[crapsjourney]

SCM you must have more patience than I do.

How long does it take to play a whole shoe in normal baccarat?

When in the Casino, I currently only play via a video terminal against both central live dealer in the house (hand every 1 min), and just computer dealer (hand every 30 seconds).

With the target 3 play, and only better player, I wouldn't mind a hand every 15 seconds, since it's so BORING!!!. Any more than 30seconds per hand and I'm about ready to throttle someone.

PS I switched to over player instead of banker since my profits were greater. I now refuse to pay the house any more commission than the rake they already take per hand.

[stratocasterman]

Michael, I have played bacc for about two decades I have only seen one person that consistently beat the game. That being said you mentioned that you could tell who will lose etc... I personally chart the players now and bet against the biggest loser. I have found that is the best play and most winning strategy for me at least.

If I may ask how many units bankroll do you need for your system. After the 31U bet how deep are you willing to go with repeating 25U bets to recover loses.

At the casino I play baccarat there are a little under 30 tables depending on the time of day. I know of a few players there that lose 8/9 or 9/10 sessions. I just do not understand it but they rarely win at all if ever. I kind of scope out the tables they are on and try to sit at the same table. Since your intuition is right perhaps you can add this play to your bag of tricks. Best of Luck!

KrapsNovice...I've been asked this several times and my answer is: whatever YOUR comfort level is. I, like crapsjourney, will completely reset back to my original 3U bet a lot of times and gradually work out my loss recovery with the 25U bets. Nothing is set in stone. I don't necessarily make successive 25U bets endlessly. Ask anyone, in reality, how long will you sit there and keep taking it on the BR chin until you decide to stop feeding large bets to a prolonged losing streak, before you stop?

I suppose the best actual answer to the BR question is what Seth alluded to. In his testing of tens of thousands of shoes, he had a stated/published win rate of 99.95%. That was based on a spread rate of 1-5000, that he suggested, should be utilized at a minimum. That puts it at 5000U I suppose. Trouble is can a person find tables that allow that high of a Table Maximum Bet? Here, the casinos have a 1-2500 spread for a Table Maximum Bet to stop the Martingaler’s from buying their way out I suppose.

Personally, I would say my ceiling is 375U. That is based on an average shoe Win rate of 75U multiplied by 5 shoes. I can call it a catastrophic loss at that level and know that with 5 average shoe Wins, I am back to even. ACTUALLY, and not to toot my own horn, I have already played those first 5 shoes and more to average Win victories. I could withstand a catastrophic loss right now and STILL be in the black. Not much difference than craps really, if you are playing a MP's $204 Across and encounter a PSO It takes several hits on the next shooter, at the same level, to get your loss back. I really see no difference...

Betting opposite or against the losers? Not me! They are WAY TOO erratic for me to figure it out. Target Betting is providing a very lucrative way to date!

SCM you must have more patience than I do.

How long does it take to play a whole shoe in normal baccarat?

When in the Casino, I currently only play via a video terminal against both central live dealer in the house (hand every 1 min), and just computer dealer (hand every 30 seconds).

With the target 3 play, and only better player, I wouldn't mind a hand every 15 seconds, since it's so BORING!!!. Any more than 30seconds per hand and I'm about ready to throttle someone.

PS I switched to over player instead of banker since my profits were greater. I now refuse to pay the house any more commission than the rake they already take per hand.

Patience? Yes, I suppose so! But I do look at it a bit differently. It's all about perspective to me I guess at this point in life. I'm 60 now and take things in stride (can't believe I am actually 60!). I am young at heart but, am getting very intolerant anymore of stupid shit at the tables.

I view it like this...I am retired in another country now and living life just fine. If I can go any/every day to the casino and sit there watching/laughing at the people, making new friends and average making $100US an hour minimally, I think things are OK. Yes, some days are boring as hell! Others are an absolute scream! Go figure.

Aaron, I average a shoe in about 75-90 minutes, putting it at about one hand or more per minute. That's OK with me because I have little else to do really. I will say this, if the game gets slow or the other players start getting really slow/stupid, as just about the ONLY "old white guy" in the room, all I have to do is say something to the dealer or pit boss and things correct themselves immediately. Not to be a big head or smart-ass, the culture here just highly respects the US citizen. It's one of those things that is nice to have in your "back pocket" so to speak. I don't abuse it or use it that much but, if I do speak up, they listen intently and results most always follow.

You mention the commission...is it a flat rate 5%? Sounds like it. Yes that can be very difficult to overcome. If it was a flat 5% here I'm not so sure I would bet Banker. Here, for those who may not know, we just have a Banker "Super Six" commission. It is a 50% commission. They get their "tax" ALL at once on a Banker winning numbered result of six. I usually immediately recover the "lost" winnings within the next couple of wins. I just add it to any Loss to Date and view it exactly as such.

[stratocasterman]

Hi strato!

Would you please provide an example of the setup and how you play the ..."banker 'back to back' target betting? You also mention the target betting the "second banker back to back win. Are they the same?

Yes, they are the same.

Scout...sent you an email with example spreadsheet of bets.

[KrapsNovice]

Strato, can you please send me the same info you sent to Scout. If I could fully comprehend I would test the system. I will private message you my email.

Thanks

[stratocasterman]

Strato, can you please send me the same info you sent to Scout. If I could fully comprehend I would test the system. I will private message you my email.

Thanks

Sent!

[KrapsNovice]

Thank you, Sir.

[stratocasterman]

Yes sir...the casino is PAYING me to utilize Target betting against them at Baccarat, shoe after shoe!

Played four more shoes in two "back to back" days (yes, "back to back" pun intended) with the usual anticipated average Profits.

14th:
Had a heavily dominate Banker shoe followed by a slightly dominate Player shoe. Had a 136U overall Profit. Highest bets were 4 each 28U bets, 3 were winning Recovery bets. Had a Player run on the last shoe that put me 10U behind for a Carryover to the next shoe.

15th
Two shoes today with the first having no dominance from Banker or Player and the second was a heavily dominate Banker shoe with lots of 3, 5 and 7 runs. Opened with my carryover bet from yesterday and just stepped up to the next progression bet of 15U and Won it. I had like 8 each 25-28U bets today. Most were in the progression for Wins and 3 each were Recovery bets. Overall Profit today was 124U.

This Target Betting is getting MUCH easier to play now. After I finished the second shoe today, I decided to just "stroll" around from table to table and do a little bit a table "hopping" with the Target bet. I thought this should be less tedious than just sitting there for an hour or so at a time. This way I could go and FIND my Target Bet and get some exercise while walking around! I just made several 10U bets for the hell of it and Won every bet.

Hmmmm...maybe THIS is the way to play???

Every day seems to bring more experience and knowledge to this type of betting. Working like an absolute charm...

Day Trip Scoreboard Wins
Michael - 5
Casino - 0

[KrapsNovice]

Good job, Strato. I spent some time looking over Seth's blog. From what I see you're now playing Three Play, right? which does not require the huge bankroll target requires in its original form. If you can provide more insight on when to bet during recovery and your triggers on recovery it would be great. I know you have talked about your triggers and provided info just wondering if you have made changes the more you have played as you're game evolves. Also, I looked over Seth's blog I cannot seem to find a clear trigger point for recovery, did he just continually bet until he recovered in his testing. Just asking in case you found it on his blog. There are hundreds of posts.

Continued Success!

[stratocasterman]

Good job, Strato. I spent some time looking over Seth's blog. From what I see you're now playing Three Play, right? which does not require the huge bankroll target requires in its original form. If you can provide more insight on when to bet during recovery and your triggers on recovery it would be great. I know you have talked about your triggers and provided info just wondering if you have made changes the more you have played as you're game evolves. Also, I looked over Seth's blog I cannot seem to find a clear trigger point for recovery, did he just continually bet until he recovered in his testing. Just asking in case you found it on his blog. There are hundreds of posts.

Continued Success!

Thank You!

YES...Seth's blog has hundreds of articles and can be a difficult read, besides the fact that he mixes in different games between articles and testing examples. In actuality, Blackjack is his MAIN game! I suggest plowing through it though, if this method seems to be something one would want to utilize in one form or another. IMO, real world casino trials and testing to date, this method, or variations of, has proven to be the BEST way to continually produce Baccarat Wins for several different reasons. Also, IMO, the familiarity of Seth's whole Target Betting theme continues to get drilled in your head, article after article, (maybe what I am doing here in this thread too, haha). Your brain gets wrapped around the method differently, from time to time, and you notice other little bits of info that you may have missed previously. I think it is no different than practicing something over and over again. It becomes VERY familiar to you and the more you learn, the more improved you seem to get.

T3P or Three play...No, I have decided to just completely SKIP the Three play part of the equation and do strictly what is called Target Betting. What I do now is just purely Target Bets. I decide whether I am betting Banker or Player (my Target) and wait for that event to occur (first winning result in a run). When it does, I jump into action and bet for a second Winning result to occur, or "back to back" Win. I then reset to my base bet and continue to bet every result in the run until I lose a bet. Rinse and repeat. It is basically picking one or the other B or P (Target), sticking with it exclusively and betting for "streaks" or runs AFTER a Target Win result occurs.

Recovery Betting? Difficult question, when looking for a basically mechanical method. As Seth suggests, if BR'd properly, this shouldn't even be a consideration. (Haha...some people have all the BR in the world and no worries, to continually bet big Loss to Date amounts as their Next Bet!) IMO, as crapsjopurney suggested with his method, when you have hit your loss ceiling, revert back to your basic bet. Get back to the Winning way and THEN begin your Recovery. Sure, your Recovery bet is STILL a 50/50 proposition bet basically like any other but, isn't it better to bet bigger when you are WINNING than LOSING? If I am on a LOSING streak I am NOT about to do ANYTHING other than make basic bets! Why keep feeding the beast large bets while losing? Does not compute IMO. Recover when you are Winning! That's how I recover and successfully.

Yes...Seth just continued to bet his Loss to Date amount, PLUS some extra amount for profit, endlessly. Remember though, in hundreds of thousands of real data test shoes, he was still at a 99.XX% Win rate. Takes a lot of BR to do that but, if we jump to a Recovery mode that limits our losses, does not Seth's results still tell us we will prevail?

Keep practicing until you are comfortable, go forth and Win!

[crapsjourney]

Here's a quick and rough video on how I play the Target 3 Play method

https://youtu.be/9CiaHTOLkbk



On watching it back I probably should do another which shows some streaks and betting against the favour of the shoe with how that goes as well.

[KrapsNovice]

Here's a quick and rough video on how I play the Target 3 Play method

https://youtu.be/9CiaHTOLkbk



On watching it back I probably should do another which shows some streaks and betting against the favour of the shoe with how that goes as well.

CJ, thanks for the video. If you would be inclined to post another video that would be great. It would be nice to see you in more depth when it comes to the recovery mode. I have seen those terminals somewhere but I never played them, if there is not an actual dealer I just assume it is rigged for the house just like a slot.

Best of luck and continued success!

[KrapsNovice]

Strato, there is definitely a lot to take in. I agree Seth tends to write about several different games in a post and it can be overwhelming. Especially since there are tons of posts. I headed to the casino last night and just made a few bets playing against the biggest loser. I made 9 units fairly quickly and stopped. I then just wrote the results for a shoe the recovery would have been horrendous on the player side as well as the first few steps but golden on banker. I know Seth mentioned that he occasionally switched sides from player to banker. Have you switched sides ever? If Craps Journey reads this I am curious if he has as well.

Have a good one.
KN

[crapsjourney]

I never switch sides. But I do switch shoes. I won’t take 3 consecutive slaps in the face with 3 losses in a row.

[stratocasterman]

I never switch sides. But I do switch shoes. I won’t take 3 consecutive slaps in the face with 3 losses in a row.

KN...TOTALLY agree with Aaron...I'll just move on to another shoe.

Good video Aaron!

[stratocasterman]

Was bound to happen, Casino scores a Win on Michael for 55U. Probably shouldn't have happened though. Ok, Ok, I am whining but, for logical reasoning.

Today's strategy trial was roaming from one table to the next (never sitting down for an entire shoe), betting the next Target Win and bringing forth my progression Loss to Date. As it seemed to work briefly late the other day, I thought I would make a day of it since live play was really the only way to test the betting method ("shoe jumping"). Well as you can see that was a bust for sure! This strategy is a hit or miss thing I believe and not one I think I will engage in again. Back to the grind!

Scorecard
Michael - 5
Casino - 1

Maybe it would be best to also include my Win/Loss to Date figure? Although the casino may get a few wins on me, I can still be be ahead on Profits easily. I'll go back and calculate...

[stratocasterman]

Scorecard
Michael - 5
Casino - 1
Total Profit - 446U

[Knick111]

GOODMORNING STRATOCASTERMAN,

HOW much is a unit worth in american money.

That is great MIKE, How much do you tip the dealer, are you ahead life time playing Baccarat?

IN your only lost, how many units did you loose.

Jaime.