Question for the (math) experts

[Sockeye]

What's the math say about laying odds against a number, when it's the last box number needed to finish the all small or all tall? This came up in Tunica. Several of us were betting that way to insure at least a modest win vs the ATS bets. I'm probably forgetting a few times on others' rolls, but on my own rolls I needed just the 4 on for the "small" in a session Sunday morning, laid the 4, and hit the 4 hard to finish that side off. Monday I needed the 6 and 9 to finish the row, laid them both, hit the 9, increased my lay on the 6 and couldn't get it before the bad number showed.

If all you need is a 6, and you're going to win, say, $240 on a $4 dollar bet, and your chances of making it are 5:6, that's obviously a great spot to be. So is insuring up $50 profit with a lay bet. To my mind, when all you need is a box number to finish a side, you've already won the ATS.

What would you do? And how large should the lay bet be, if you're making one, in relation to your ATS bet? Do people play this way with a firebet, and lay the point when you're some number of points into a roll?

[acpa]

Sockeye,

I’ve seen people lay some point in those circumstances. And when one of the casino in Tunis, a long time ago paid the shooter on different bets made, I’ve laid the needed number on myself when I was one number away from collection on that deal.

Noah

[House of Orange]

I know, in order to make the all, I needed a six once, and another, uncircumcised Philistine, who happens to be a board member here, laid the number. I was so pissed I promptly sevened out and did not speak to him for a month.

[mssthis1]

What Irish said.

About all I can add is bankroll of the individual. If you're going to be in bankroll starvation mode if the ATS or fire bet is not made, hedging is a sensible choice.

The Math says, don't make ATS or Fire bets, the HA is too high.

[heavy]

I'm going to agree with Irish - and House of Orange. Now THAT is something rare. Agreeing with both of them at the same time. But Irish is right. I would not add the house edge. And HOA is right as well. When you take the time to Lay the last point your are taking yourself out of the game mentally. You are shifting from right brain (tossing) to left brain (betting). It's also a prompt for me to turn off all of my Place action and just wait until the decision is made on the Pass Line or the All or Tall is completed.