A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

[stratocasterman]

Hi Strato,

You stated...
"Sometimes, I may really be in the hole, say 100U or so. I most always, revert back to Base Bets up to 28U and Win along the way but, NEVER make a Recovery Bet just yet. Example would be say, sets of twos...PPBBPPBBPPBB. If I don't ever get into a decent streak beyond two back to back wins, I just refuse to make Recovery Bet. You see, in a way, the shoe has to prove to me that it CAN go beyond just streaks of two, before I start any Recovery.

If I was just to blindly bet a Recovery Bet after every second Win, I could get my a$$ handed to me like in the example above. THAT is why I wait for the streak to develop (and they will!) before betting any Recovery. OK."...

If the streak was sets of two, PPBBPPBBPPBB, couldn't you utilize the recovery bet on the second banker each time? Also, is the recovery bet a partial bet or a total bet of the "loss to date" (total sum of losses)?

scout...Yes, I could utilize that second bet or "Target" but, I want to get back to a Winning way as previously stated, BEFORE I attempt any Recovery. I would say though, in this PPBBPPBBPPBB example, I WOULD likely be betting a Recovery Bet on the second possible double, maybe, and DEFINITELY the third possible double set.

From what I most generally see in test shoes AND live casino play...when the Winning "Targets" start to appear again, it's time to get back on the "train"! "ALL ABOARD!"

Very rarely do I ever bet a Full or Complete Recovery Bet. It depends how far I am down. My standard Recovery bet is 25U until Recovered. I will admit, I HAVE made a couple of test and LIVE bets of 83U and 110U. I felt the time was right and gambled! I won those hands BUT, it could have easily gone the other way!

In testing, who cares right? WRONG, I play my test shoes as closely to what I would do in real live play, so I 'know" what bet I will be making 99.99% of the time.

IMO, you have to practice with test shoes to develop your "sense" and then apply it to live casino play. Every person has their own comfort or "gambling" level. Develop it, use it, then your confidence/playing level should excel to the point you are smart, and comfortable with your play.

On a couple of occasions in testing and one in live casino play, I have actually gotten behind and NEVER decided to place a Recovery bet within the entire shoe. It would typically be one of those "hit once, lose three times" scenario shoes. What actually ended up happening in those shoes was I DID Win 30-50U in the shoe, just simply betting my now standard (3U, 7U, 15U, 28U, then Recovery mode if needed) scheme with NO Recovery bets. There were never any real "streaks" or runs and the Target Wins were just here and there but, enough to grind out an overall Win in the shoe with no Recovery of past losses.

Hey, no problem! I have plenty of opportunity with other shoes in the future to make my Recovery. When I am testing and in live play, after a little bit, you just seem to "know" what is going to happen next, when you begin Winning. To me, it's easy to Recover when that situation/opportunity presents itself!

I try to make things as automatic and mechanical as I can. Granted, the game can get very boring and "mechanizing", and it surely doesn't help change the boring factor. BUT, I will say, you HAVE to let your gambling prowess and intuition out occasionally.

Be it a Win, is usually a great satisfaction and BR builder!
Be it a Loss, to me, is only a fleeting moment of "oh well, I made the attempt"!

I won't say I never get bored with the game but, I LOVE WINNING MONEY!!! THAT does NOT get boring to me!!!

The real difference, IMO, is that I KNOW I CAN Recover and have proven it, "in the long run".

Soar like an eagle! Pun intended!

[KrapsNovice]

Essentially he lost his pre recovery bets and should have gone into recovery at some point but he came out ahead just playing his pre-recovery bets by the end of shoes so there was no need to go into recovery. Remember he only goes into recovery when he feels the shoe is on his side.

Hi Strato,
Would you please expand on this statement?
...What actually ended up happening in those shoes was I DID Win 30-50U in the shoe, just simply betting my now standard (3U, 7U, 15U, 28U, then Recovery mode if needed) scheme with NO Recovery bets. There were never any real "streaks" or runs and the Target Wins were just here and there but, enough to grind out an overall Win in the shoe with no Recovery of past losses."...

Is the 3u,7u,15u,28u up on a win, or is it trying to capture past loses?
Also, the string looks like 2x previous bet + 1 unit. Should consideration be given for changing the 28u bet to 31u?

Thanks in advance.

[crapsjourney]

I did up a video to answer Scouts excellent questions but the audio failed 1/2 way through. Which is a real pain as I work 60-80 hours a week so getting time to record is slim. And any “me” time after family time is spent sleeping. I’ll have another go through this week, since it’s good info for the podcast.

[stratocasterman]

Ahhhh danga Aaron! Great works and thanks! Look forward to it.

KN...exactly!

Scout...I have to say, hands down, statistically!!! Now you know I have my few little "rules" that I follow but, they ARE nothing more than gut feelings, past experiences or psychological remembrances of past events that appear to be real (hahaha). Yes, I admit to a few.

Now when someone is Winning, at any game, typically they do NOT relent on the casino until the casino comes back to start beating them right? I think that may be the answer to "gut" feelings. When you are consecutively Winning, THAT is when you should Recover. It's kinda like when Heavy KEEPS hitting the 6&8 at the craps table...you are going to KEEP riding it, Same Bet or Press CORRECT? SCREW any regression at that point!!! Take advantage of the Winning way by Recovering all your past losses, getting back to square one AND some Profit.

I guess you could characterize my/the "Target Betting" game play as poking along with Base bets ("3u,7u,15u,28u"), waiting to score Target Wins. When that fails at any point, I CONTINUE that strategy, UNTIL a Winning form (streak or run) begins to prove/develop itself. THEN, it is time for a Recovery bet!

The "3u,7u,15u,28u" are my base loss/negative progression bets. Yes, I have toyed with using a 31U in place of the 28U bet. My progression bet amounts were mostly based on adding 3U + 1U or 10%

In essence, I don't really "feel" the need to Recover...UNTIL, I see myself Winning consistently/consecutively again.

Great questions, answers and participation from everyone! Practice it until you are comfortable, adjust your negative progression/winning progression bet strategy amounts and go KILL it at the casino, be it Baccarat, BJ, Pai Gow, Craps or Roulette 1:1 bets!

[wild child]

When a relaxed waiting it out session,should there be need, is there a number of other players
at the the table you prefer so they can keep the game in motion....

Have you or have you observed a dealer or supervisor run off inactive player(s) ?

When in observation mode ,awaiting a favorable pattern to show do you set a limit to the number of hands
you will sit out prior to seeking some other opportunity ?

Personally never observed someone in "Park or Not actively betting " on a craps table bothered as long as they had chips in the rail..

However more than once and in more than one casino market have observed nonactive players
told bluntly they needed to have Active Bets At Risk
on both
Roulette and Mini Baccarat tables....
or
they were not welcome to just sit with no active bet...

w c.

[stratocasterman]

w c...Yes, I like others at the table to play with. Not a whole lot but, some. I hate to sit there by myself but, would do it if I walked by a table that was open with an interesting looking shoe.

No, never have seen anyone get run off per-say. I WISHED they would sometimes! Here, lots of young girls/boys, with no/little money, go from table to table to just chat and bet very small amounts (riding someone else's table minimum $20 bet with a $2 bet). It's like they have nothing else to do but organize a "talk" club (or some OTHER kind of business purpose) and come in the air conditioning for free coffee, coke or juice! Ticks me off when there is a great opportunity shoe starting and they ALL jump the table seats!

I have seen security guys approach people who are "napping/snoozing" to wake them up or leave!

No, I have set no limit to myself for waiting out a big streak/run but, I have gotten up many times and left the table in the midst of a 10-12+ ongoing run. The game can be boring enough, why just sit there? A FEW times, while waiting it out, I decided to "jump ship" and just bet with it. That has usually just ended up blowing up in my face, as the run comes to an end and I catch myself in a flip-flop!

No, "Park or Not actively betting " activity causes NO Pit or Supervisor action. You can sit there and drink/eat whatever until the cows come home and then some.

Things here in the Philippines are VERY relaxed. At most any casino, you can do about anything with no consequence within reason. There ARE a couple of high-end 5 Star Hotel/Casinos that utilize dress codes and will escort people out of the building for various behaviors. Yes, I have seen them ask people to get up from a table who are not betting or just "chatting" and not betting. These higher end joints do not put up with the normal BS most all of the others do. Hey, they are 5 Star and aim to KEEP it and their clientele that way!

[KrapsNovice]

In reference to inactive players at baccarat: Here in the Chicago area it depends on the casino. The clientele is overwhelmingly Asian in NW Indiana. There are about 15 - 25 tables going depending on the time and buses come and go from China town. At two casinos I have seen players sit there for hours rarely placing a bet. If they have no chips they have been asked to leave the seat depending if the pit boss is paying attention. As for the higher end place (Rivers near O'hare) I have seen them boot players for just taking up space even with a few chips in front of them on two occasions. They rarely placed bets and were there just to park it. If you bet even 20% of the shoe you will not be hassled. I know because that is how I work it. At the Joliet casinos they will boot you if the table is somewhat full and you play very few hands. There is a sign on the table I just do not recall the rules as I have rarely played there and both casinos only have one table.

This fall I want to take a break and play Strato's game but I first want to practice. Recovery is my concern. I want to first figure out my recovery plan before I take a deep dive.

[wild child]

Thank you stratocasterman & KrapsNovice for your rapid responses.

At times The Roulette and Mini baccarat dealers slow the pace to an agonizingly slow snail's pace
and conversely pick up the pace to freeze out people who demonstrate an unbroken series of POSITIVE RETURN WAGERS.......
.
On one occasion Crimson Tide and I were at the Total Rewards joint in Biloxi
We observed a fellow stretched out on a bench seat in the buffet struggling to catch a nap.

He shared with us that he was comped a junket and was currently " E Keyed " out of his room
and
had been locked out with his Bank Roll , large $ amount in winnings and credit cards & wallet content safely in the comped room.

He claimed he was locked out because they wanted him to keep playing.....
.....increasing the probability he would lose the $ winnings plus MORE.

Haven been up almost a full 24 hours,he most wanted SLEEP...prior to again going at the game .....

He had to wait another number of hours before the limo would take him to the Gulfport Air Port....
and the return filght back home to Atlanta.

I have no delusions the depths the casino / entertainment creatures will sink to cover the corporate bottom line..

just me saying
w c

[stratocasterman]

Recovery is my concern. I want to first figure out my recovery plan before I take a deep dive.

Couldn't have said it better KN...have a Plan, then execute it comfortably with no confusion!

Thank you stratocasterman & KrapsNovice for your rapid responses.

"At times The Roulette and Mini baccarat dealers slow the pace to an agonizingly slow snail's pace
and conversely pick up the pace to freeze out people who demonstrate an unbroken series of POSITIVE RETURN WAGERS......."

w c...Yes, I have seen the same. It is surely amazing on the Roulette table (how quickly a dealer can slow or speed up the game pace)! Over the years, I have noticed a few "seasoned" Baccarat dealers who can really switch gears dealing at the table as well.

[stratocasterman]

Haha! All hail the "Target Betting" spirits for another highly Profitable morning of Baccarat play, and a special shout-out "Thank You" to the casino for returning my Loss to Date funds with another Total Recovery carryover Win!!!

Scorecard
Michael - 6
Casino – 1
Casino Loss Carryover “Recovery” - 1
Total Profit - 582U

Fully Recovered my 55U carryover loss from the other day and scored a 136U Win Profit today on two shoes played! BINGO…gotta love it when the Plan is executed to perfection.

Adding to the fun was playing with an old friend I hadn’t seen in quite awhile. He is an aging senior (wheelchair bound and not doing very well now) and plays on a limited BR. Some of us at the table that know him, let him ride our bets with his small bets and let him “squeeze” the cards most of the time. He likes to bet Banker 90% of the time so it was surely no problem for me.

We caught a couple of Banker dominate shoes and “killed” it! The first was B35–P32-T4. The second was my Full Recovery shoe of big runs/streaks, B45–P26-T5.

In the first shoe, I was actually in Recovery mode in the last half of the shoe, after being up about 23U in the first half. I was down 87U at one point!!! The shoe finished with spectacular Banker runs…PBBBPPBBBPBBBBBB. Fully Recovered the 87U LTD with a 43U Win in one shoe…thrilling!

Side note, I reiterate, PLAY THE ENTIRE SHOE! If it goes the other way, you will likely only end up sitting there watching or betting very little. If it’s not going well, you CAN just watch. If it goes positively, well…you can see what the results can provide.

The second shoe was just pure FUN and Winning at its finest! Those types of shoes ALWAYS attract a crowd. I would guess there was at one point, 20-25 people crowded around the table reaching in with bets of all kinds. I don’t keep track of the exact Winning result “numbers” but, I would guess about 50% of the initial Winning Target bets were Banker “Naturals” of 8 or 9. Most of the rest of the wins were 7s and if it came to a third draw card…many of those ended up in a total result of 8 or 9 for the Win. The high fives and fist bumps were FLYING all over, and with my friend. It was absolutely great to see someone have such a great time “squeezing” the cards and Winning BIG time (who usually has to just sit there and ride bets with small non-minimum bets and NEVER even get to touch a card)! Truly a smile that you could NOT wipe off of his face, mine too!

I just love Winning! Don’t you?

[mssthis1]

Nice win and good patience! Staying the course until things turn around is hard to do.

[stratocasterman]

I have decided to copy and continue my "A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy" Target Betting Trip Reports to my...

"Stratocasterman Trip Reports" page @ https://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... man#p67052

I will no longer post Trip Reports here but, will continue the thread discussion, post updates/changes or answer any questions.

[crapsjourney]

In response to Scout's questions

Part 2 of 2

[wild child]

Aaron

Almost 20 minutes run time

Thank you for posting the Target 3 Play video

You done good

w c

[Moe Bettor]

Watched your video. Thanks for it. Maybe I'm wrong here, but it looks like one of those martingale money chasing systems. The problem is that you have to chase money just to get a slight profit. Your losses can multiply exponentially. You get up to say $200 just to eke out a $15 profit..maybe. Craps similarity with $180 across just to get a $35 or $54 hit. If you are going to chase money, how about waiting for a 3 or 4 winning series on PLAYER and then start your progression on BANKER. Say $10, lose..go to $25, lose..go to $50, lose..go to $150. A loss at $150 would mean that PLAYER winning run would be large..8 hands or so. It could happen, and you'd have dropped $235 but at least you'd be giving yourself a chance since BANKER wins more than, as I understand it, %50 of the hands.

[wild child]

crapsjourney is by far more up on T 3 P.

The concept was / is designed for Targeting a specific single flat bet..
Either Banker or Player in Baccarat or Mini Bac...The OUTSIDE BETS ROULETTE
or in our game of Dice aka craps PASS Line or Do Not Pass Line.....

Since we are often allowed ,by most AUTHORITIES , to glibly say
"Anything can and may happen ,we may hear it said
or
even utter those or similar wordage .

In Mini Bac and even less so ( in Dice / Craps )
runs of six(6) P L or Don't Pass Line are fewer than
runs of (1)one , (2)TWO , (3) ,(4) Four (5)
in that the larger
number runs become LESS FREQUENT in the % of repetition
as
the number of REPEATS increase.( down to small fractions of one percent )

Should a wager placer get skunked (5) five times
said
wager placer may choose to wager on another round
OR
perhaps choose to sit out the rest of THAT STELLAR EVENT
or

Transition to the opposite side

( possibly at the perfect moment
or timing
and suffer the indignity to get clobbered on that side also )

( becomes a uncomfortable VERY EXPENSIVE on top of JUST EXPENSIVE Choice
as THE LOSS TO DATE ( L T D ) mounts higher
for a relatively small $ Win
...HOWEVER should it go RIGHT it is a win)
the L T D then returns to ZERO $ U S D and you could start from jump Street...

Some may Perhaps find it wiser to wait for another
and
better on the nervous system
opportunity
to recoup the LOSS TO DATE ( L T D ) at some future time.

How many Charted Toss Records from Trip Reports
show a single string of Five Established PASS LINE Wagers settled
by the P L Point R E P E T E D...
.......as opposed to NOT REPEATED due to a 7 Out ?

At the craps table
how many HANDS did not have the longevity to exist to or beyond the 3rd level ?
( a string of numbers tossed once the P L is SET
are not the PASS LINE Point)

Baccarat hands may run to 60 or greater than 70 hands in a 8 deck shoe.
The distribution seems to favor BANKER over PLAYER
and
while runs of 20 may show
they seem less frequent than more common shorter runs

We enjoyed giving T 3 P a go.....more businesslike than Action Entertainment.
Experience "on the job "( aka: Just Over Broke )
in my misspent youth some time and labor was endured
requiring more back than brain.....
.
Invested time and effort in formal education
and
traded blue collar better and somewhat safer work environment...
The incentive was more bucks for less strenuous lifting
zero concern of strikes and layoffs....
( even found time and resources to invest in a number of enterprises )

T 3 P could offer somewhat comfortable income in
a relatively safe and somewhat comfortable climate controlled environment..
(Some may consider casino wagering for full a time only income source
...it would not be fun HAVING TO DO THAT FULL Time YUK )

My choice runs toward dedicated hobbyist preferring to
avoid severe $ U S D losses with the prospect of comped R F B...
Any $ on the plus side are other than my primary goal....

A Comfortable Retirement and advanced redirect one's PRIORITIES...

The However Factor the T 3 P has at the core guidelines
to hold onto $ WON and recoup serial losses to a Win
THEN
return at a BASE $ AMOUNT prepared to stay in the HUNT to a Win.

Should losses mount to a specific $ U S D amount,
the T 3 P wager player HALTS.....
Waits for a RE entry point if one shows before the Baccarat hand terminates
or seeks a new game .......

Craps ,and Roulette follow entry ,exit and re entry or perhaps another game
with guidelines specific to EACH within casino rules
established for that specific casino gamble............

The LOSS TO DATE may carry to a future date and/or location...
Recovery is possible following the rules of the T 3 P game plan.....

This requires some calculating
and
searching for POSITIVE BATTLE GROUNDS per say.....

T 3 P is relatively easy to learn .
However not THE ONLY WAY TO PLAY......

Other methodologies may show by far more ACTION
Perhaps more $ PROFIT.... at somewhat greater exposure to LOSS...

The entire program is offered FREE of CHARGE
for those wishing to give it a go....or just choose to blow it off...

crapsjourney and strat know by far more and are way more
better able to explain the HOW TO ....

Just sharing based on a relatively small sample ( 14 casino adventures )
Took it for runs at Mini Bac ,Craps and Roulette ...

( TO date ZERO HEAT ,
fit in among other players.
Just a face in the crowd )

Am comfortable using T 3 P and enjoy my day trips at a far easier pace.

( Edited from my earlier posting
as B o W C suggested the earlier post could be miss understood.
Really trying to do good )

just me saying
w c

[Moe Bettor]

Regarding Crapsjourney's baccarat playing method.
First let me say that I like it, but I have questions since I am tempted to give it a shot. I've been using it on the Wizard of Odds simulator.
If you are betting, for example, on BANKER and you lose two straight doesn't that mean that PLAYER has won two straight and a move might made for the third on player? In testing this, albeit, for a short amt. of time, I see it prevents one from being caught in a long one sided loss sequence and in looking at yr. video..you'd be farther ahead, no?

[stratocasterman]

Thanks Aaron! As always, GREAT STUFF! I hope everyone sees the grinding power Target Betting produces...besides the power it has to Recover your 'LOSS TO DATE" amounts.

People can call it a semi-Martingale or whatever, do we even care less what it is called? Recovery has proven to bring BACK your BR losses quickly and handily. Which makes me really think, if we are consistently betting anything at the table, aren't we going to STILL consistently be LOSING bets no matter WHAT betting methodology we are using? Our losses TELL us what we need to bet, rather than us making random guesses.

Note, I have recovered ALL my losses at the Baccarat table to date with the Recovery method. I HATE losing ANY money! I even HATE leaving money on the craps table. Do you really think it is my dumb luck, random guess betting or a sound strategy that has lead to my current scorecard? Keep in mind that I, like Aaron, play with a very small Base bet (not even table minimum) and achieve these results.

Baccarat Scorecard
Michael - 8
Casino – 1
Casino Loss "Carryover Recovery” - 1
Total Profit To Date - 900U = $1800

wc...as always, you bring up some excellent points to examine. You stated, "while runs of 20 may show they seem less frequent than more common shorter runs". I briefly looked but, could not find the event probability data on Baccarat events. I have seen it before and I do know that the order is:
Singles
Doubles
Triples
etc...

At that rate, with Target Betting, we are at least betting the second most common event in Baccarat!

Great contributions, efforts and inputs. Thanks to everyone!

[crapsjourney]

Regarding Crapsjourney's baccarat playing method.
First let me say that I like it, but I have questions since I am tempted to give it a shot. I've been using it on the Wizard of Odds simulator.
If you are betting, for example, on BANKER and you lose two straight doesn't that mean that PLAYER has won two straight and a move might made for the third on player? In testing this, albeit, for a short amt. of time, I see it prevents one from being caught in a long one sided loss sequence and in looking at yr. video..you'd be farther ahead, no?

Thanks for the question. It’s always tempting to switch sides isn’t it. Especially on a long run. I personally don’t switch. The probabilities put the game at close to 50/50. I’m not a good guesser. Whenever I switch it changes sides. The maths will make it turn in your favour but there are times where patience is tested. And that’s the real winning ingredient I think. If you have a solid plan and work it with your stop losses built in then you just need patience.

I’ve sat through and battled shoes that were against me. And then on flip side road the wave of shoes that were with me.

I think Seth Theobeau and Lee Evans have also got some maths behind it (sticking to one side). But I can’t remember it.

Also I’m not an overly lucky guy. So any form of thinking I can beat the cards isn’t going to work for me. Craps is a different story though thankfully.

[crapsjourney]

Hi mods would this question be able to be moved into the main thread.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5561