Should I use Come bets to replace Place bets?

[dork]

I use electronic craps play to rehearse betting strategies. I came upon an idea and haven't seen it offered here (maybe I just missed it) and wonder why/if it hasn't been posted before...

There are place betting schemes and Come betting schemes. One of the more common place betting schemes is some variation (in dollar amounts) of "Across" to cover all the box numbers. Typically, one that bets this way first opens with a PL bet and then adds Odds and the Across when the point is established.

When a box number is hit, the bettor usually either "same bets", regresses, or increases that box number's bet.

A Come bettor might wait until the point is established, then as a first play, bet a Come bet ($5), and when that number is established, s/he'll add Odds to the traveling Come bet. They might have a goal—to install another fresh Come bet, repeating the entire process (including adding Odds) for a specific number of times, usually three standing Come bets with Odds. Some might just continue until all the box numbers are covered with Come bets plus Odds.

Down in Mississippi, the odds are commonly allowed to at least 20x. If you’re playing in MS, why not start out as a PL bettor and add Odds and the Across bet AND include a Come bet in order to take down a box number's place bet and use that money for Odds? That way, one could start out hoping to get paid for any box number at Place Bet odds, and convert each box number to full odds (plus the Come bet "fee").

The only reason I can think of for not doing it is there's (a marginally) "larger" dollar commitment (because of the Come bet "fee") to win the "same" amount of money at the lower betting stages...

We’ll postulate that the point is 8 and we made a $5 PL bet; add a 10 Odds bet and a $54 Across bet. $10 on every number, and add a Come bet for $5. A ‘5’ is thrown. We’re paid $14 for our $10 Place 5, the Come bet moves to the ‘5’ box. If we were going to “up one unit” the Place bet in a regular scheme, we’d take down our Place 5 bet of $10 and make the 5 Odds $16. The 3 for 2 payoff “costs us” $5 in risk. At the lower levels, this might not pay off enough to beat the HA. (I’m no good at that kind of math.) But it would seem to me, that the goal is to get the box numbers pressed beyond “up one unit” standards—my personal progression on a 5/9 is a parlay—I’d go $10, 24, 60, 140, 330, 800. In the Come-replace-the-Place bet scheme, it would look like this if I took down a corresponding place bet:

$5 Come w/26 Odds
$5 Come w/60 Odds
$7 Come w/140 Odds
$17 Come w/330 Odds
$40 Come w/800 Odds

Yes, as the Odds go up, so does the “fee” (risk) of the Come bet, but instead of getting paid:

$35 for a $24 Place bet, I’d be getting paid $44, or $9 for the extra $7 it cost to bet $5 w/$26 Odds.

This is much more demonstrably profitable when we look at a larger (3rd) payoff (and beyond):

A $140 Place 9 bet pays $196, but $7 w/140 Odds pays $217… an extra $21 for the $7 “exposure”.

One thing to consider about the extra "risk"--the Come bet "fee" costs--as the presses increase, the fees are at least partially covered by the larger Come/Odds payouts. (I haven't figured out exactly the "fee reimbursements" from higher previous Come/Odds payoffs, but for instance, the $330 Odds level has an extra $21 dollars from the $140 payoff to cover the Come bet totally.)

Mississippi casinos (I think universally) allow the bettor to add to the Pass Line and Come bets if the bettor wants to increase their odds beyond the initial flat bet’s limit—that is to say, if a bettor wants to bet $140 Odds because the point established is a 6 or 8 and the bettor thinks he’s got the edge with a better box number (as opposed to an Outside number) and the bettor only bet $5 PL, the house will allow the bettor to add $2 to the original $5 PL, qualifying that PL bet for a $140 Odds bet.

That would allow the bettor to increase the Come bet to accompany larger Odds (and “match” the intended theoretical Place bet press) when the next increase breaks the Come Bet’s odd limit.

Why would this entire idea be bad? Does this make mathematical sense? I’m wondering both in sheer Odds sense (pure free odds vs house vig on the Place bets) and also, house advantage sense?

[acpa]

The last thing you say about “adding” to your come bet is a buy bet which you you can do but miss the chance for you come bet to win on the 7/11 roll.

Noah

[dork]

Is that something to consider seriously, Noah? I didn't know that's what it's called, and it didn't occur to me that it's fee is "double" because it doesn't get a chance at the Natural payoff, but it seems such a small "tax" to square up the Odds bet for 3-2 instead of playing the Place bets for 7-5. Even at the $7 point to wager $140 Odds, it seems the $2 in this instance is a cheap cost for full Odds. I'm just spitballing as it occurs to me... I wonder if the larger Odds bet's corresponding Buy bet increases are proportional (HA-wise).

Thank you.

[220Inside]

In MS, a place to come strategy is not as advantageous as it might be in other places since many places do auto buys on 5 and 9 as well as 4 and 10 place bets starting at $20 and the vig is paid on the back end. No need for the come bet "tax" when that additional come bet amount could be getting paid at true odds (minus the vig).

[heavy]

Years ago a computer expert who was also a craps player ran thousands of trials on various strategies based on actual in casino rolls. I don't recall who did it - it may have been Winkless but I'm not sure. I have the guy's book around here somewhere. Anyway, what he came up with was this. Play the Pass Line with max odds. Place the six and eight. Make continuous Come Bets with max odds until the devil shows. Repeat.

This is one of the lowest vig ways to play, which is good. It's also one of the highest variance ways to play which is good if you catch the positive swing on the variance pendulum. Catch the negative swing and you'll have plenty of time to enjoy the casino's other amenities (other than gambling).

[dork]

Hey Dork,
I know irish and MD play a place to come strategy occasionally. It's in a thread(s) somewhere on the site.
Check out Rappin Captain's Exponential Betting thread. It is a come bet play, but certainly a good read to his reasoning for the play.
The coast allows put betting. That might be an alternative to the strategy you posted.

Thanks, Scout! I've read and reread the Capt's EB thread and my impression was that it seemed maybe just a hair more susceptible to the Red only because he was WOTCO only when he had (at least) 4 established numbers. Also, his Odds progression was uniform across all the box numbers.

I didn't detail my betting scheme, but my 10, 24, 60, 140, 330, 800 parlay is only intended as a parlay on a single (signature) number. I think my scheme is less vulnerable to large losses on a single throw with maybe better chance for moderate payouts because in my scheme all the box numbers are covered outright with an Across bet, and as the shooter, I'm guaranteed that the come out roll is not set looking for the Red.

I would set the rest of the "Across" as basically a $52/54 Across play with all but the signature number intended as "up one unit" Place bets--but those remaining four (non-signature) Placed box numbers would be substituted on their initial hits with $5 Come & $15(16) Odds, "up one unit Odds" if any of the non-signature numbers repeat.

Brainstorming, I think this scheme allows the free odds bet across all the workable numbers without increasing (much) vulnerability beyond a Place Bet scheme.

I'm readin' up on the put betting scheme. Woe is you... I'm gonna have some questions. hahaha Thanks again.

[dork]

In MS, a place to come strategy is not as advantageous as it might be in other places since many places do auto buys on 5 and 9 as well as 4 and 10 place bets starting at $20 and the vig is paid on the back end. No need for the come bet "tax" when that additional come bet amount could be getting paid at true odds (minus the vig).

Thanks, 22. I'm confused and I think mainly because I don't really understand the MS buys vs what Vegas casinos do. Assume my goal is to bet with Odds corresponding equally to my usual Place bet progression. Isn't it still an advantage even in MS to pay the Come bet tax to get the full Odds with no vig, especially at the larger Odds progression (say, 2x, 3x, repeater numbers)?

Thank you.

[dork]

Years ago a computer expert who was also a craps player ran thousands of trials on various strategies based on actual in casino rolls. I don't recall who did it - it may have been Winkless but I'm not sure. I have the guy's book around here somewhere. Anyway, what he came up with was this. Play the Pass Line with max odds. Place the six and eight. Make continuous Come Bets with max odds until the devil shows. Repeat.

This is one of the lowest vig ways to play, which is good. It's also one of the highest variance ways to play which is good if you catch the positive swing on the variance pendulum. Catch the negative swing and you'll have plenty of time to enjoy the casino's other amenities (other than gambling).

Thanks, Heavy. In the betting scheme you describe, is this set for "Vegas" odds at 2x and 3x maximum? If it's a 20x casino, or even a 10x casino that bankroll has gotta be Rappin' Capt -sized. I'd be interested in initial 6/8 bet and how their progression increased.

I had a lesser scale in mind. I didn't detail my betting scheme, but my 10, 24, 60, 140, 330, 800 parlay is only intended as a parlay on a single (signature) number. I think my scheme is less vulnerable to large losses on a single throw with maybe better chance for moderate payouts because in my scheme all the box numbers are covered outright with an Across bet in denominations of "$10"... essentially what I was considering was a $52/54 Across set up where the sig number parlays 4-5x unimpeded, while all other numbers "up one unit". When the sig number gets to a point where I chicken out, I regress to $54 Across and skin all the payouts from the other 4 box numbers and pile up on the signature number with those monies again. (Let's say I have $140 on the 9, and a 9 is rolled. With $25 on the 4, $15 on the 5, and $12 each 6/8, $20 on the 10, I'd regress to $54 across, and tell the dealer make the 9 a $40 place bet) This is my normal betting scheme.

But in considering Come and Odds, I'd substitute $5 Come and $15 Odds for any non-sig number on that number's first hit, $20 Odds on the next hit, etc., in theory reducing some exposure to massive losses because of "all-out" max Odds betting, akin to a Rappin' Capt scheme. Does this idea hold water or is it too much like going for broke, too? Thanks!

[heavy]

I believe this book was written in the late seventies, so that would likely have put it in the "full double odds" day. My problem is I can't get enough money on the table with double odds when the game gets hot. So I end up in situations like 22inside faced on a hot hand in Vegas last weekend - where you're up to $420 on the six when you make your pass on the five. You set the six as the point next but can only get 5X odds. You have $10 on the PL and $50 odds. What to do? Take $50 off your $420 place bet and use it for odds, rack $10 and leave $360 up as a place bet on the six. Or, if you feel the need to take a little off the table roll the place bet back to $180 and do a 50% regression. But if the bet it "paid for" already I'd use at least part of it to keep that bet pressed up.

[mssthis1]

I have went to a place to come strategy especially on games with better than 3/4/5 odds. It's more work and takes a lot more active brain cells but it makes you additional money in the long run because of "last come gets you some" and especially on the 5 and 9 if you get them pressed up. a $5 five with $50 odds pays $80 while a $55 place bet pays $77. It doesn't sound like much but over the course of a year it's significant money if you play very much.

Like Heavy stated if you press much you may have occasions where you have a pass line bet and a place bet on the same number. I used to move the big place bet to the sister number. I leave it where it is now and adjust the bet down by the approx amount of the pass/odds bet. I keep it a "normal" bet. I feel the dealers could get a burr under their saddle if you start making bets like a $348 six.

[heavy]

Agreed/ Start out with something like $12 each on the six and eight - or at most $34 inside with $12 on the six and eight and $5 on the five and nine. Put most of your money on the place bets with the lowest vig.

[dork]

Thanks, Guys.

"Too much vig to start."...

For Irish and Heavy--in a Place to Come strategy starting with only the Inside numbers, would you build out to include the 4/10, or ignore them until they're hit? Or would you not consider the 4/10 until your Odds progression on the Inside has reached some repeated number and triggers your action to build out? Or would you ignore the 4/10 and not waver, building Inside Odds only?

[heavy]

Let's say it's a 3-4-5x odds game and you're a budget player. Start with 1-2-3x odds. That leaves you room to progress twice as the numbers repeat. If you want to increase your bets after that you can add a buck or two to the PL bet, which will allow you to get more odds on the table as well.

Another option is just to stop making those come bets and let some of the bets work their way off the table. When a bet comes down (let's say it's a six with $5 plus $25 odds) you win $35. Take half of that and place the number for $18. Then you can press up from there on subsequent hits. Once you have three or four place bets up you can go back to come betting - perhaps at the $10 level this time - and again running the odds progression.

Remember when betting free odds that the house does not have an edge on that portion of your bet. Hence the "free" designation. However, the house does have more bankroll than you and they can outlast you on a cold streak. For that reason - don't over-extend yourself on come bets. They can bite you on the ass with their volatility.

[larry@143]

I have been inactive a few years due to serious health issues, Butnow I am back for my last hurrah!
I was always curious about irish's place to come to place strategy. Would it berude to ask irish to let us in on that strategy?
I wouldnt be offended if he wants to keep it personal. Just asking irish. I tried to find it in the forum but failed.
Thanks regardless of your decision. Aloha!

[220Inside]

Welcome back Larry!

Hopefully Irish will share that strategy with us soon. I seem to remember coming across a discussion on it at one time, but can't find it, like you.

[memo]

Great explanation Irish...

I occasionally used a place to come to place strategy over the last weekend...
It was a bit more aggressive than yours. In retrospect, your version makes better sense.

Memo

[London Shooter]

Excellent explanation from Irish, including pitfalls of doing this, especially the bases loaded aspect which can be so frustrating when employing come bets. I also feel, as alluded to above, there is a good opportunity for a mini regression when using come bets as part of your strategy as it's v easy as they hit to get money off the table and place for a smaller wager from the pay-out.

[Moe Bettor]

I don't use this strategy as you can get hit by having those contract bets.There's no "Bring me down" with come bets. But I do see the value of
the regression element and like Irish says..Only when you are tossing and are dialed in.

[larry@143]

Thanks Irish, gotta start gaming this strategy. Agree with London bout the discreet regression when replacing the come hit with new place bet.
Thanks Inside22 for the welcome back!

[MarkS]

I realize this is an old thread but I have been toying with an idea and had some success with it on WinCraps. It can be a bit volatile, as you will see, but if I am on at all in my tosses I tend to hit a lot of box numbers. I regularly cover the ATS except for the 2 & 12, picking one of those up occasionally.

Just using some $ numbers to work with. Also, I have a big preference for single odds. Try whatever levels you like.

$25 passline with single odds
$160 ($25 & $30) place / buy across minus the passline number
$25 come with single odds

Keep making come bets until 3 come bets move to numbers. That will result in anywhere from 1 to 3 come bets in play (due to possible repeaters).

Once 3 come bets go up, remove remaining place / buy bets and reduce come bets in play to 2.

I parlay naturals and on the passline make a 50% progression.