Hedging the Fire bet

[r_ventura_23]

Since I am heading to Vegas on Sunday, I have been thinking about what to do if I have 5 to the fire bet.

Let's assume I have $2 on it for a potential $2000 win, and I need the six. If at some point the six became the point I would probably lay $600 against the six, giving me a profit of $500 if I seven out, or $1400 if I make the six.

However, I was kicking around doing the following: Right after I make the fifth point, I would lay against the 6 on the come out ONLY. Probably along the lines of $240. This gives me the possibility of collecting several times on a come out 7. Of course if I do establish the 6 at some point in will cut into the profit on either the lay, or the fire bet win. But I could still show a nice profit, regardless of the result.

Example. Fifth diferent point is made. Lay $240 no 6. Roll is two, 11, 5. Take down lay against the 6.....no damage.
Shooter rolls a 5 and makes the point. Lay $240 no 6. Roll is 11, 7, 3 7, 8. I just picked up $400. Now take down the lay against the 6.

Whatcha think?

[HornHighJoe]

The object of hedging a bet is to cover yourself in either scenario, and that can only happen if you light up the 6, so laying on the CO does not aid in that. So what happens if it is a CO 7, do you keep the lay up or take it down?

If you get the puck on the 6 (which is really what you want) you have already cut into your Fire Bet profit regardless if you make the 6 or not. So it's almost like saying to the casino, no I'm taking too much money from you guys, here's some back.

So why not Lay Across if you're really hoping for a CO 7?

Here's a link to my very first post where I gave my (mathematical) opinion on how much to hedge the Fire Bet. But basically you would want to do a Dooey-Don't Line bets.
https://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... 117#p21117

[heavy]

The problem is going to be FINDING a layout with the Fire Bet on it these days. Your best bet is probably the Westgate. I haven't been there lately but someone mentioned on one of the FB dice groups that they'd been playing it there recently.

[DarthNater]

There is still a Fire Bet on one of the tables at GVR, its open most nights.

If I'm shooting, I'd never lay that last point - bad karma and contradictory to the Prime Directive - win as much as you can! Get your best six set and toss it, keep working your other bets and make every toss count, D.N8r

[London Shooter]

Margaritaville was only place I played at back in Jan that had it. It's becoming a dodo of a bet in Vegas

[220Inside]

Speaking of dodo's, the Margaritaville will also go the way of the dodo in a couple of weeks. It's reverting back to the Flamingo brand. The chips are already gone and they're using Flamingo chips. Not sure if they'll even keep the table there. Shame.

[London Shooter]

Oh, didn't know that thanks for the update

[Dicepops]

There is still a Fire Bet on one of the tables at GVR, its open most nights.

If I'm shooting, I'd never lay that last point - bad karma and contradictory to the Prime Directive - win as much as you can! Get your best six set and toss it, keep working your other bets and make every toss count, D.N8r

"Prime Directive"!!! DN8R, in't that mixing Sci Fi genres??? Prime Directive is from Star Trek.

Just sayin' Pops

[DarthNater]

"Prime Directive"!!! DN8R, in't that mixing Sci Fi genres??? Prime Directive is from Star Trek.

Just sayin' Pops

LOL - yeah, it sure is......but guess what really destroyed Vulcan......you didn't really believe it was a drilling rig - did you?

Darth

[Dicepops]

Resistance is FU-TILE!!

[Dicepops]

Not a mining rig? Red matter delivered by an angry Pit Boss named Nero.

[DanF]

You should always hedge it. Cuz odds are crazy against it you will make more money overtime against it then the edge costs you. Don’t get silly tho. For a 5$ fire I edge 40$@4pt and 200$@5, 500$@6.

[DarthNater]

You should always hedge it. Cuz odds are crazy against it you will make more money overtime against it then the edge costs you. Don’t get silly tho. For a 5$ fire I edge 40$@4pt and 200$@5, 500$@6.

Hmmmm, did you mean to hedge $400, vice $40, on the No 4 PT? And with $200 on the No 5, and $500 on the No 6? If all three of those hit you would get $200 + [$120 + $10 + $2 = $132] + $415 = $747 less the vig depending on which casino you're in is a before or after levy. So lay $1100 to win about $750 if none of the three get knocked down. Or if you are just risking laying against the sixth point, which means your $5 Fire bet is already good for 5 x $250 = $1250 payout - why would you give the casino money back? Do you lay after you establish the next point? Or on the come-out? Because if you needed an 8 for the 6th Fire point, but the point you set was 4, would you then lay the 4? Even though you've already demonstrated you can toss at least three fours?

Okay just read Irish's post about the long term while I was mathing this all out. The term length - I dunno know...... I've seen 6 point fires hit in about 20 tosses and also in about 60+ tosses. The math guys say over millions of tosses, blah, blah, blah - these are the odds; except for DI all the odds are backassward. But if you're theoretically 2 tosses away from adding $3750 to the Win or walking with $1250 guaranteed - why not go for it. I don't think we need to figure out what's long vs short, nor show the dozen suits glowering over the table after the fifth point (and planning their next distraction to mess you up) that you're gonna hedge. To me that's playing into their hands.....

Or are you saying you've got a $5 Fire Bet on a randy? If so, that's already a $1250 payday - whoopee - hopefully your place bets have been paying also - so maybe if you're worried that Randy will implode then maybe regress your bets. For me I suspect all my place bets are paid for by now, anyway, so I'm going to throttle on. I remember a randy (and a virgin) hitting the Fire for all six at Paris. All she needed was the ten, it took her an extra point to finally set it; while a bunch of suits watched, she flung over 15 times trying to make that ten to win. We were all betting the hard ten and pressing it after every one of her tosses to keep her charged up, finally after rattling off a bunch of chips she got the pair of fives - my hard ten was up $30, but one guy was pressing in quarters (yummy)..... I always remember the positive frenzy that created - so that's my play going for the sixth point. we all got our tax forms for the bet, but that was only for the 1000 to 1 payout, not for all the other place bets and hard way winners.

D.N8r

[DanF]

You don’t give casino money back, you are going to win that lay 5/6 times +

A laybet has less HA, more % to win then firebet which is horrible. If you tell me hedging it is aweful...tevise your maths. I rather not take fires anyway...

[heavy]

Irish is right as far as the math is concerned. Smart money doesn't Lay the last point. Scared money does. Where does that get you? Last time I laid the sixth point on a Fire bet the point was SIX. Yes, I laid the SIX. For $500. And as soon as I laid it the shooter bullfrogged it right back. Cost me $500. However, I won $3000 on it so I shed no tears. It wasn't that I was afraid that the shooter wouldn't make the SIX. It was simply a case where I wanted to walk away with SOMETHING regardless of which way the decision went. Honestly, although he would never make a FIRE bet wager - the Lay move is classic John Patrick style betting - guaranteeing yourself a win.

[220Inside]

When we were in Vegas for the last class, we played a few sessions with some acquaintances from the facebook craps groups that were also out in town that weekend. Some decent shooters, all students from the other place. But they were very big proponents of hedging whenever they could. Hedge the last number on the Small, sure why not. Tall, hey why not? Most of them were not all that versed on the proper lay bet sizes either, so they really slowed down the game and interrupted the shooter's rhythm as they were talking among themselves and the dealer trying to get the right sized lay out there. Hell, some of them were even pulling down their place bets on those numbers at the same time. It was bizarre.

[heavy]

It was stupid is what it was.