A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

[heavy]

Done. It is up the thread about three posts.

[stratocasterman]

Regarding Crapsjourney's baccarat playing method.
First let me say that I like it, but I have questions since I am tempted to give it a shot. I've been using it on the Wizard of Odds simulator.
If you are betting, for example, on BANKER and you lose two straight doesn't that mean that PLAYER has won two straight and a move might made for the third on player? In testing this, albeit, for a short amt. of time, I see it prevents one from being caught in a long one sided loss sequence and in looking at yr. video..you'd be farther ahead, no?

Thanks for the question. It’s always tempting to switch sides isn’t it. Especially on a long run. I personally don’t switch. The probabilities put the game at close to 50/50. I’m not a good guesser. Whenever I switch it changes sides. The maths will make it turn in your favour but there are times where patience is tested. And that’s the real winning ingredient I think. If you have a solid plan and work it with your stop losses built in then you just need patience.

I’ve sat through and battled shoes that were against me. And then on flip side road the wave of shoes that were with me.

I think Seth Theobeau and Lee Evans have also got some maths behind it (sticking to one side). But I can’t remember it.

Also I’m not an overly lucky guy. So any form of thinking I can beat the cards isn’t going to work for me. Craps is a different story though thankfully.

Spot on Aaron...great answer. I TOTALLY agree.

[stratocasterman]

wc...as always, you bring up some excellent points to examine. You stated, "while runs of 20 may show they seem less frequent than more common shorter runs". I briefly looked but, could not find the event probability data on Baccarat events. I have seen it before and I do know that the order is:
Singles
Doubles
Triples
etc...

At that rate, with Target Betting, we are at least betting the second most common event in Baccarat!

I wanted to add some information I found regarding my reply, to what wild child eluded to earlier about events frequency in a shoe. Thanks for bringing that up w c because I think this is pretty relevant information to Target Betting and Baccarat in general.

This is information stated from my purchased The NOR Approach To Baccarat, by beat the casino dot com, copyright 2011.

"The average shoe contains 32 events: ( 1„s, 2s 3s 4s etc.)"

"On Average
1's occur 1 every 4 plays
2s = 1 every 8 plays
3s = 1 every 16 plays
4s = 1 every 32 plays
5s = 1 every 64 plays
6s = 1 every 2 shoes
7s = 1 every 4 shoes
8s = 1 every 8 shoes And so forth."

[Moe Bettor]

Thanks. Great info. I have been testing this for a few days. I agree that sticking to one side is best. However if there are 4 straight losses on one side I will start a progression on the other side. So far this had been very successful in simulation using Wizard of Odds simulator which uses, I believe, an 8 deck shoe. Has anybody tested this "4 loss" progression bet?

[stratocasterman]

Not myself thnick...I, like Aaron, pick one side and stick with it, Period. I'm not going to get caught flippin' when I should have been a floppin"! If the shoe is not giving me what I want to see...I'm outta there! Kinda like what Heavy says..."Get in, get up, get gone". If I can't get up, well, I'm gone to something else!

Anybody else tried jumping back and forth, especially with runs going? Maybe SteveO has tried or tested this?

[Bones]

Strato
Reallly great thread. Your hard work is appreciated
Can u tell how u would have handled this shoe if u were only betting player. Hindsight of course shows Banker would have crushed it. But trying to beat the commission didn’t work out very well this day.
Thanx Bones

My apologies for picture being sideways

[stratocasterman]

Can u tell how u would have handled this shoe if u were only betting player.

Bones...Honestly, betting Player with all those Banker runs against me and all the singular Player results, I would have switched after the fourth singular Player result or just walked away to another shoe! When things aren't going your way, GET GONE! There are way too many other shoes that can be easily beat.

I am also saying this on the premise of being a one-sided betting player. It doesn't matter if you like Banker or Player. Pick a side and stick with it is my usual. I don't like to switch because you can rarely get on the right side of things.

In this case, I would have just walked to another shoe and went into Recovery mode. I've done it several times and have always prevailed to date.

Thanks

[Bones]

Yes, definitely should have walked. I kind of sat there in disbelief thinking that surely this trend would end and of course it did as the tombstone lol arrived.

Not a whole lot of shoes to choose from. I only play at Harrahs as it’s the only $5 game in town and unlimited free hands.

Despite this loss I’m still up and still on the learning curve
Thanx again for sharing.

[House of Orange]

Bones! Time to change your second line of your signature!

[SteveO]

Not myself thnick...I, like Aaron, pick one side and stick with it, Period. I'm not going to get caught flippin' when I should have been a floppin"! If the shoe is not giving me what I want to see...I'm outta there! Kinda like what Heavy says..."Get in, get up, get gone". If I can't get up, well, I'm gone to something else!

Anybody else tried jumping back and forth, especially with runs going? Maybe SteveO has tried or tested this?

Now in my opinion and not much more in that this is just an observation and not something I've programmed or ran simulations on:

If you switch sides to jump on a run, do not carry your LTD over to that side. Instead, flat bet and use these profits (should they exist) to pay down the "debt" on the over side.

For example: Say the shoe just went

1. P
2. P
3. P

And you went:

1. Bet 2 on B, lose. LTD = -2
2. Bet 2 on B, lose. LTD = -4
3. Bet 2 on B, lose. LTD = -6

Now you decide to switch sides and the shoe goes:

4. P
5. P
6. B

I think you should go:

4. Bet 2 on P, win. LTD = -4
5. Bet 2 on P, win. LTD = -2
6. Bet 2 on P, lose. LTD = -4

Now back to betting on B with LTD of -4 instead of -6. Yes you could have recouped the entire LTD on hand 5 with a second win in a row with a 5 unit bet but in Baccarat, runs of 6 do not occur that often and I think it would be more prudent to just flat bet the other side.

[crapsjourney]

Thanks Bones, your image is fantastic and is the same machines that I use at my casino.

Stratocastermans response reminds me Monty Python's Holy Grail movie.



This is so good I'll do another podcast about just this one image. I have the Excel spreadsheet results and it aint pretty.

The beauty of Baccarat is the shoe history, roadmap, whatever it's called.

Every single system target 3 play included has a signature weakness. You MUST know your systems weakness, and when to stop using it.

This is the perfect example. Thank you Bones for taking this photo and sharing this.

[stratocasterman]

Nothing like a little Monty Python!!! Haha! Good one Aaron! Lovin' the Youtube's you have been creating!

Thanks again for the input Bones! We tend to think you know what you woulda/shoulda done. You know the winning formula! Having limited tables is a bummer though. Makes it hard to switch shoes quickly and Recover. Come on over to the Philippines...they got PLENTY of Baccarat tables for ya, although they are mostly $20 tables but, I get around that.

In the smaller towns here though, the PAGCOR casinos offer lower table minimums of $6 and $10 with about anywhere from 3-10 tables available. Baccarat and slots are the ONLY main draws in these small towns...NO craps or anything else is offered. For some reason, the few times I had played Baccarat at these small town casinos in the past, I did very well but, was unaware of the "Target Betting" strategy. Their shoes seemed very predictable and were generally evenly matched P/B shoes with nice runs of 3-5 both ways.

SteveO...that is a very interesting take on the switching strategy. I'll keep that in mind if I ever find myself in that situation, though I am highly likely to just walk to another table. Great input, thanks!

[Bones]

Looking fwd to podcast as well.

Since posting that shoe I started biting the bullet and playing Banker. Brown trouser moments plentiful but so far so good. During one shoe I Recognized player was once again sinking hsppy I was on Banker.

The Commission didn’t seem painful at all lol .

[stratocasterman]

Since posting that shoe I started biting the bullet and playing Banker. Brown trouser moments plentiful but so far so good. During one shoe I Recognized player was once again sinking hsppy I was on Banker.

The Commission didn’t seem painful at all lol .

Well alrighty then, maybe I have a Player betting convert now LOL!

I'm with ya on that commission tax ripoff. Might think about a extra added commission bet after accumulating some winnings. I do know in one of Seth's "Target Betting" threads he decided to just bet his normal bets in testing but, added the 5% commission to every bet. If he lost, it was carried forward anyway as the Loss To Date figure. At one point, Seth himself was persuaded to join the Banker betting side but, that did not last long before he switched back to betting Player! Haha!

I'm glad that here, all I have to deal with is a one time 50% commission on a Banker "Super Six" result. It sounds horrendous and is with a large bet up. I always hope that it happens early in my progression and NOT later when I have bigger bets out there. A "Super Six" result doesn't really happen that often and it is easily recoverable at some point in the shoe when conditions seem right.

Great stuff Bones! Do you post Trip Reports?

[Blackcloud]

UNNHH!! If you run negative progressions-DO not go past straight losses; so as not to invite yourself into disaster !! You must kill-"just one more." UNHH!!
BC does use the triple marty.

[stratocasterman]

A couple of my latest shoes explained in a spreadsheet with bets. The audio isn't the best but, I think you will get the hang of what I am doing.

[eastcoast]

strato, thanks for the spreadsheets! great explanations, and it answered a few of the questions i had. The amazing item is the difference in the final count between Banker and Player.

[Bones]

Thankyou for the spreadsheet it explained it very well.
Yes definitely converted me.

As you mentioned the chop will kill this. Have u ever considered betting Banker again after first loss so your first recovery bet would be 3 units instead of two. This would eliminate the chop problem and chops occur frequently

I believe crapsjourney plays this way and just wondering if you ever considered it.

Thanx again
Bones

[stratocasterman]

As you mentioned the chop will kill this. Have u ever considered betting Banker again after first loss so your first recovery bet would be 3 units instead of two. This would eliminate the chop problem and chops occur frequently

I believe crapsjourney plays this way and just wondering if you ever considered it.

Thanx again
Bones

Interesting, thanks for the input Bones!

I totally agree that the chop IS the most frequently occurring event on the table, and can quickly trigger Recovery mode betting.

Although it does seem to be an interesting concept, when a shoe heads that direction, I have never actually considered betting a non-Target bet event. To me it seems to be similar to flipping/flopping sides between Banker/Player. Historically, I NEVER seem to be able to get on the right side of it!

Most should know me by now...that I will pick up and move to another shoe or better yet, sit there patiently and wait it out until things head back my way. A shoe is usually a continual battle combination of chops and runs.

Lee (back to the very beginning of this thread) had a very interesting way of looking at a shoe. Throughout his casino play, he would always break down a shoe into four sections of 20 results or so. Try this examination yourself upon completion of any shoes you play or observe. I believe you will start to notice a lot of similarities when you look at it this way. Almost every shoe I have seen or played, seems to fall into these sectional patterns. Yes, of course, you will have that crazy shoe upon occasion (all chop or extremely LONG runs...even back to back sometimes) but, they really are RARE. They just seem to stick out in our minds (confirmation bias right?) Look at your continual shoes, section by section, and come back here and tell me what you see OVER and OVER again.

Suffice it to say that I believe I will catch enough Target "back to back" events within a shoe. That being said, I feel confident in that, and have proven it to myself time and again for sure in testing and casino play.

Glad I could provide some spreadsheet betting explanation and it was understandable. Thanks for your support!

[Bones]

Historically, I NEVER seem to be able to get on the right side of it!

Been there. Happy to know I’m not the only one.

Lee (back to the very beginning of this thread) had a very interesting way of looking at a shoe. Throughout his casino play, he would always break down a shoe into four sections of 20 results or so. Try this examination yourself upon completion of any shoes you play or observe. I believe you will start to notice a lot of similarities when you look at it this way.

I’ve noticed that the first half of shoe is really different than the second half but going to check out the 4 sections. Very interesting