Playing the OH-CM with a different perspective

[SHOOTITALL]

I expect some of you to really disagree with this perspective but those that are interested, maybe it will give you a different idea.

I suppose this thread will work fine as I want to say a little on my playing the One Hit - Can't Miss system. Most of you are now familiar with it but you really never understood pulling bets, changing bet or keeping bets up so I want to 'splain a little of that.

With the OH-CM, starting on the DP and getting a point set, the battle is now half won. After placing the 6 & 8 for amounts equal to the DP bet and getting one hit, you have won the other half of the war. That war is over. What to do now? Do you pull your PBs? This is the quandary of the system. If you leave them up, you still have a guaranteed win. By pulling them, you have a larger guaranteed win. So on this hand let's leave them up for another hit. We get another hit. Do we still leave them up? If we leave them and the seven shows up, (we be at a minimum table), we have collected $14 bucks plus the $5 DP for a total of $19 bucks.
On the down side, now we have to subtract the loss of $12 for a net win of $7 bucks. Had we pulled the PBs after the second hit, our win would have been: $5 on the DP, $14 on the PB PLUS the seed money of $12 for a win of $31 bucks. So, you say, "You cannot count the PB as a win because you started with that. To that, if you lost the seed money to the seven, would you count it as a loss? Yes, so by pulling it, it is a definite win of the seed money because it Wasn't lost.

If you leave the PBs up until they lose, you should subtract that from your buyin but if you pull your bets, you should count that as a win simply because it was not lost. Yes, this is an odd way of thinking but now think about how many More hits you must get to recover that lost seed money. If the shooter goes P-SO, that loss will take two hits to recover. So, after a PSO, you are looking for 3 hits for a small profit. Now, if after a PSO, you are down $7, a hit on the next hand and you are basically even. If you get another hit, it is a $1 profit UNLESS you pull your bet here. Then you are $15 ahead awaiting the outcome of the DP. (Here, sometimes I place that point for instance the 6 was the point, got your two hits on the eight, pull the eight, now it is a $2 win or $1 loss because of the wash factor.
MORE TO COME ON THIS

[SHOOTITALL]

Part II
Now, we will dig a bit deeper on leaving the PB, pressing the PB and pulling the PB.

Should you press after one or two hits? My opinion is no. There is basically no benefit to a press because of
the downside when you lose the PB. One would be miles ahead if on the next hand or so you increased your DP and PBs. Here is my thinking on the pressing:
To start, we will ignore the DP and pretend it is not a 6 or 8 point.
We start with a $6 6 & 8 and get two hits. We have $14 in the rack plus $12 seed money for a total of $26 bucks. What do we have if the seven shows? $14 in the rack, loss of $12 for a net of $2. What do we have if we pull? $26 bucks. What do we have if we press one number? $18 seed money, $8 in the rack. A seven out gives us a grand total of -$10. (O.K. if you insist, add in the $5 win on the DP plus the $5 seed money for a grand total of $ -0- but now you would still have to recover $1 seed money. Now, you have to recover the $8 to get back to where you were before the press. ($18 - $5 DP win plus $5 seed money). That takes two hits.

I am well aware that you Might miss out on a long roll and then again they simply do not occur that often.
This could and should be flexible if a DI is tossing 6s & 8s, but be careful of others and judicious when putting your faith in the DI. Yes, you will come across a chicken feeder that just knocks hell out of 6s and 8s but we both know that is a rare occurrence.

If your eyes haven't glazed over by now and your mind is still semi functioning, congratulation.
I believe my math is correct but the point is that one should think about whether or not to pull, press or ride.
Each has benefits but you should really resent making the same dollar twice. Even with perfect judicious playing you will lose sometimes when things are bad. Those things are getting whacked on the CO, PSOs, continual 6/8 points. But, if the object is to win, this should do it. You will not win a lot because it is a grind and it takes a lot of gambling out of gambling. But the object of my discourse is simply have you look at seed money differently than you have before. sia

[Dicepops]

SIA-So what are you advocating, besides not pressing the PB hits? Do you stay or do you go? What do you do when you roll?

[heavy]

This concept - hit and down - reminds me of a line I use when talking about how to guarantee a win. Essentially you look at your total action on the table compared to what you've taken off the table and ask yourself "what move can I make right now that will guarantee a win or increase the size of that win."

You could play the OHCM at a higher level - say $25 on the DP and $24 each on the six and eight. One hit pays you $28 and you are guaranteed at least a $3 win if you leave everything up and the seven shows. But if you regress the six and eight to $12 each you guarantee yourself a $27 win. If you get one more hit for a $14 payoff your guaranteed win is $41. If you are on a $5 table and regress to $6 each on the place bets you've increased your guarantee to $63. - assuming I've done the math right. If you come down after that $14 payoff the win climbs to $75. Should you lose your DP bet at that point your win drops by $25 to $50. If you win it your win increases to $100? I think. Hell, I'm doing all of this in my head and I'm not sure I'd trust it this morning if I were you. Feel free to check my math and correct me. It won't hurt my feelings.

[220Inside]

First off, thanks for starting this thread SIA. It's great to get the additional perspective on this and the different directions you can take this play.

Heavy, I think the first hit on a $25/24/24, guarantees a $5 win ($28 win on the 6/8 hit + $25 on the SO = $53 - $48 place bets = $5)
From there, regression to $12 each = $29 win
One additional hit on the regressed $12 6/8 bets = $43 win

These calculations are all off the top of my head as well. Caveat emptor.

[SHOOTITALL]

Dice pops: "What to do now? Do you pull your PBs? This is the quandary of the system."
How I play is also not hard and fixed but flexible. IF I get a right back PB hit, I usually give the shooter a few more tosses for that second hit before I pull. That is a free ride, so to speak. But, if after a few, say 4 more tosses and no hit, I run like a bandit. If I get a right away PB hit and then nothing, it really bothers me but down they come. If I get no hit after say, 5 rolls, down they come. I, too have to control my greed and optimism of a shooter. Yes, it kills me to see roll after roll after roll with the 6 & 8 rolling in bunches and sitting on the sideline but I know this is an aberration. Do I want to jump back in? Hell yes. Do I? Sometimes. As mention, be flexible but attend to the reason you are there.
There is one other item I wanted to write about. Zeke Feinberg wrote about pulls, presses and recovery in both of his book, which is actually the only thing in them worthwhile. This is not new, was not construed as new but only a different way to count which really isn't new either.

[rhythm roller]

SIA,
OMG, this is some thought provoking info and I will need to reread several times to make sure I have it all. Your posts really resonated with me today. This is my favorite way to play the randies so I appreciate the in depth on it from you.

One more thing, my favorite line in the whole post is "you should really resent making the same dollar twice." That is so so true and I really need to evaluate this in OHCM and also in sizing my bets properly on myself and then not pressing them at all in a hand. Thanks for being the teacher I really needed at this particular momemt in time.

[DarthNater]

SIA,
Super thread, I'd like to ask about the two things that seem to plague me most on the OH-CM

First, when the point is 6 or 8, I've seen Heavy go right up on the 6 & 8 regardless, whereas in many cases I've resisted that play as it already cancels the point number. What are your thoughts and preferences for when the DP is either a 6 or 8?

The second plague for me is the Sheriff and the Deputy knocking down the DP on the come-out. Do you replace - now basically playing it as a two hit - can't miss; do you back off and wait for the next shooter/comeout; or do you double or triple up on the DP for the second toss and play at a higher bet level ?

Thanks, D.N8r

[skasower]

SIA,
Your explanation is clear and your concept is good. If one is an accountant or an economist your OHCM method makes perfect mathematical sense. And, of course, anytime one can walk from the casino with a win, even a small one, one has beaten the bastards.

The sociological problem is what I think will catch most of us and we will not have the discipline to pull your method off successfully. Here are some sociological reasons it is difficult to execute a perfect OHCM approach:

1. We like the action and only weep at the losses
2. We like the social camaraderie at the table and would miss it using a strict OHCM methodology, and one that I personally suffer from is:
3. Once we leave the craps tables, we run over to the Sports Bar where video poker lives and proceed to have a couple of what I call $60 beers!

Meanwhile Mr. SIA thank you very much for reminding us to attend to our money (money management!) Your report gets an A+ today!

skasower...aka...loves VP...loves camaraderie....and is an economist

[heavy]

Somewhere in my archives a chart MP put togethercomparing one hot and down with several other popular plays. If I can find it I'll post a copy.

[SHOOTITALL]

DN: You'll have to ask Heavy about his playing. I've been playing craps with him over 15 years and still haven't a clue. If you are referring to Heavy's pressing the off number, again I have no idea. He plays the OH-CM completely different from me so he will have to clue you in.
Now, it seems strange to place the point when the point is 6 or 8 but that is the key to the system. IF it makes you feel a little more comfortable, when the 6 or 8 is the point instead of giving the dealer the point money, put your $6 straddling the first line of the pass line, the one closest to the rubber. That is a place bet, tell the dealer, "placing the point" and it is the same as the dealer putting the bet next to the puck.
Skasower: One must be comfortable within one's self not to try and impress strangers and dealers at a craps table. Just be aware of why you are there. Lots of craps players want to show their expertise in various ways for some reason known only to them. I have no idea what the sociological factors are in a craps game as I am a rather reticent person and am slightly uncomfortable around folks I do not know. After a few minutes, I have taken their measure, put them in a category and feel o.k. about it. On the $60 beer, that is another personal thing that probably needs to be conquered. A slot is a slot and I do not regularly play slots although the wife seems to fit every slot stool in the joint. The last time I played VP, I had a straight with four cards to a straight flush. I sat there staring at it and then several people were aware of it and huddled around me. So, I ask the question: "Take the win or the chance." Everyone of them said to take the chance. I could hit the flush, the straight flush or receive zero. So, I took the chance and got zero although I knew the correct answer was to take the win. It was only a quarter so it made little difference anyways.

[Moe Bettor]

As I am understanding the OHCM..you go say $19 DP. Let's say the 6 comes out. The 6 now has the no bet of $19. You place it for $18. Now you cannot lose. You make either $1 or $2 no matter what happens. If you place the 8 for $18 that is a separate bet which now puts you at risk. OR if you make DP of $24 and and the six comes up. You now have a no six for $24 and you place the 6 and 8 for $12 each. However if a six hits, you lose the no $24 and make $14 for a -$10. I admit I have never understood this bet clearly when it comes to placing more than one number..the DP number. Therefore maybe working just one number that has both ways going and then make a DC bet and do the same with the next number. Yeah..I get that it is a hedge and actually if you have a DP 10 or 4 up there it is best to leave it and play around it tho lately I've been getting nailed on just numbers when I've played them.

[SHOOTITALL]

Thnick: The DP should be 50% of the combined amount of a 6 & 8 bet. Yes you are at risk. That is why it is called OH-CM because it takes ONE hit on the 6 or 8 to guarantee you a win. There is no way to make a buck on the craps table without a bet or a risk. What this system does is takes it down to the LOWEST number of hits to turn a profit. That number is one. (I have never seen a DP bet for $19 but I am sure it has happened.) Yes, the six and eight are separate bets but they are combined to give you a 10:6 advantage over the house to have a winning hand. Yes, also I tend to leave the 6/8 working a little longer when the 10 or 4 is the point because winning the DP is 6:4 while working the 6/8 @ 10:6, the best of both worlds and I, too have gotten skinned doing that.

[DarthNater]

Thanks, SIA

What about question #2 - dealing with the Sheriff & his Deputy? Do you replace, wait, or press the DP?

D.N8r

[SHOOTITALL]

DN: I will replace the DP once after getting knocked down on the CO. The shooter can beat me twice but that is all. If I could figure out that one, it would be a perfect system but so far I can't noodle out that. The Sheriff and his deputy will always be hiding behind a billboard to nail ya.

[heavy]

I'm going to recommend that those of you who have not read his work already visit dicesetter.com and take a look at Mad Professor's series on Regression Avoids Depression. In particular, look at Parts 3 - 6. MP gave me permission some years ago to quote extensively from this material on the forum, in my manuals and books. He's done the math on pretty much everything you can imagine in this realm - in particularly seven-out-recovery time. Warning. There are hundreds of MP articles archived over there. Don't fall down the rabbit hole. But this particular series ain't bad. This link will take you to Part One of the series. You're on your own to navigate around dicesetter.com to find the rest of it.

https://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad140regression.htm

[Moe Bettor]

I would leave the DP or DC up as an outside number, but would pull it to use if bets are paid for As for MP's article.. absolutely a must read. Regression which I learned from this forum and reading saved my ass.

[stratocasterman]

MP's "Regression Avoids Depression" is a great , detailed read. It IS worth the time!

This is MP's Table of Contents link I use. All "Regression Avoids Depression" parts are right underneath this section... https://www.dicesetter.com/mp/MP_toc.htm#7

[bahdbwoy]

Uhh nothing sucks more than constantly getting 6/8 as the points and then no hits before the 7. I rather lose via a natural on the co lol.

Gets you tempted to have them working on co but then you lose 3 units instead of 1 on a natural.

Found myself down 8 units real quick. Against better judgement I folded and up'd my base bet, only to have it continue lol.

Probably should have transitioned to pernsioners play.

[DarthNater]

Uhh nothing sucks more than constantly getting 6/8 as the points and then no hits before the 7. I rather lose via a natural on the co lol.

Gets you tempted to have them working on co but then you lose 3 units instead of 1 on a natural.

Found myself down 8 units real quick. Against better judgement I folded and up'd my base bet, only to have it continue lol.

Probably should have transitioned to pernsioners play.

This is also the challenge for me on the OHCM. While I've become accustomed to placing the 6 & 8 when one of them is the point, if the non-point place never hits, then you need to stop. Three tries is my max. If the point continually comes up 6 or 8 and is getting made then you're likely on a warm table. My observation is that the OHCM tends to lose over times in that situation as you really need the point to be an outside number to fully exploit the leverage.

I also prefer to play it on a cool table to reduce my risk of the sheriff and the deputy. since I prefer to do the mini-CTSL and match my places, I kinda like that way to chase, D.N8r