Pressing Your Bets

[stratocasterman]

We’ve seen a few threads on pressing your bets here. They are anywhere from replacing the current bet with the bet payout, 20-30% add, every other hit, full court press, same number, etc…

I am constantly trying different pressing approaches and comparing them with a specific Wincraps roll file, to see what the optimum would be under a certain set of toss results.

The questions are: What really makes the best sense, in your opinion, in pressing your bets to get the maximum profit from a hand?
Can there be any math behind it in a specific set of circumstances/roll results? Is there any specific pressing approach to take, no matter what the circumstances/roll results are? Do you just say the hell with it and go with your gut, or what is being thrown at the time?

Base it on the bets you usually have up and say an average 1:7 SRR roll scenario on yourself. We can go to Heavy’s Perfect World Casino if you like. Go ahead, toss all box numbers before the SO, you’re all good.

Explain your strategy and why…is this what you would really do?

[220Inside]

My current play that I've been wargaming at home is PL + $6 ATS + $6 World/Ace-Deuce. Place $66 Even after the comeout. Assuming my point is one of the even box numbers, I'm looking at $88 in action to start, including my PL odds which I start at $15 on any even number. With that amount of action, I need 5-6 pays, including any come out winners, to reach a break even point.

My initial presses are 15-25 on the 4/10 (racking $16) and 18-24 on the 6-8 (racking $15)

Setting a 5 or 9 as a point, I get a little extra exposure and need an extra hit to get to break even nirvana. But, I only place $10 in odds to start with on these numbers, as they're not one of my signature numbers and I'm looking to limit exposure here a bit.

Early repeaters on the 4/10 get me to break even that much quicker, as I'm into 50/50 press/rake territory after the initial hit (25-50-100-200...). For 6/8, I go 24-42, racking $10, so that second hit on one of those numbers doesn't get me a whole lot closer to break even but gets me into green chip territory early.

[heavy]

Man, I've labored over this question for fifty freakin' years. At the end of the day I think you need two different approaches. One for yourself and known shooters who execute a controlled toss well enough to give them a positive EV. And second strategy would be for the Randies you end up betting on while waiting for the dice.

That first approach should be loosely based on the kelly criterion - bet an amount comensurate with your bankroll and your positive EV. If you have a 1% edge over the game then you bet 1% of your TOTAL bankroll. By TOTAL bankroll I mean the amount that you'd have to lose before you'd say "screw it, never playing this game again." Say that amount is $50K. At that level your average bet should be $500. How to spread it? Depends on the odds offered on the game. 10X odds would work. $10 PL with $100 odds. $180 each on the six and eight. $10 Come Bet with $100 odds. Use the payoffs on the six and eight to cover your odds. Adjust the bet size on them as needed. Make continuous Come Bets with odds until the ugly number comes. If you are the shooter and you are not setting for sevens on the come out - work everything. As your bankroll grows - so does your average bet size. Likewise, as it shrinks you reduce your average bet size. Kelly 101.

On Randies I still want to maintain at least a $150 average bet. OHCM at the $50 level. $50 DC. $48 each six and eight. Take two hits before pressing the six and eight. Then go to 90 - same - 180 - same - 420 - same - 900 - and from there you're just adding zeros.

[220Inside]

Man, I've labored over this question for fifty freakin' years. At the end of the day I think you need two different approaches. One for yourself and known shooters who execute a controlled toss well enough to give them a positive EV. And second strategy would be for the Randies you end up betting on while waiting for the dice.

Man you got that right. The betting side of this game is one that is constantly evolving, both as your knowledge, skills and bankroll improve.

[220Inside]

PSOs on the RR's are BR killers at that level depending on your buy in. More comfortable for me might be $20 DC $18 6/8 OHCM. Second hit go to either $42 if 2 hits on same number, or $30 each if one hit each on 6/8. You're still in positive territory if you start pressing on the second hit. Or be more conservative and start pressing after second hit.

If it's working well and you get up on your session, consider bumping up to $25 OHCM, to test the waters.

[heavy]

Scout - I hear you. SIA and I discussed this over lunch this week. I had good success playing the OHCM at the $25 level my last trip to Vegas. I'm thinking the $50 level is not that big of a step up -(Yeah, I know. Double)- and my only real risk is $50 on the Come Out, which I should probably protect from the sheriff and the deputy with some sort of prop action (even though that eats into your already negative expectation) and once the point is established - there's still at risk money before the first six or eight shows. But once you collect $56 on one hit on the six or eight you are bullet proof on that hand. And as I've said many times - I'll bet a six or eight on anyone who touches the dice.

[pappyvanwinkle]

The core issue with pressing your bets goes back to the basics of a betting system. You need to find the right betting system for you. There really is no right press move or increment, it's really what you're comfortable with/what you're bankrolled for. There's nothing wrong with the player that tells the dealer to go up one unit. For example. starts at $12 6 or 8, first hit they go to $18, then to $24, $30, $36 ... For myself, I'd never do it that way, my thinking I'm not maximizing what I can win. I used to bet like the 50/50 split when I'd get a hit aka take some/press some. I did the exact same moves as you described on the 4/10. Now I pretty much press the first hit to get me into green chip territory immediately.

[heavy]

Most of us should be thinking "regressing" instead of "pressing."

[stratocasterman]

Ahhhh...regression, that's me!

I have war-gamed this to death in Wincraps, when practicing my 2V set. For some reason, I just kill the even numbers.

I like to WOTCO with a $10 4&10 and $18 6&8. Anything that hits first, I pull that number, then divide the initial bet and payout amount among the other three box number bets until I get a second hit. After that, I can regress everything back to a $10 4&10 and $12 6&8 that is PAID for. I run the DP/PL by itself, no matter what the point to keep things separate. $30 DP, $10 PL with $20 odds (make or break even less some vig).

Now here is the interesting part. I run a side by side betting comparison that presses differently from here on out, on EVERY hit and never pressing any point number.

First example presses every hit by $6, same number hit.

Second example presses the THREE not-hit box numbers by $2 each, EXCEPT the point (if it's an even number).

This compares pressing the last number hit versus spreading out across the remaining three numbers, in an equal amount.

Yes, it fluctuates but, surprisingly...over hundreds and hundreds of hands, pressing the remaining three numbers, in an equal amount until the SO comes, has produced a steady 12% increase over the same number press. Made me scratch my head a bit...

Now I WILL say this. There are times when I am practicing/casino and am just killing the outside numbers in repeat fashion with Primary hits. I will ALWAYS press the same number when a repeater pattern is being thrown or I am getting many Primary hits. You just cannot ignore that when you seem to be in the zone.

I do believe pressing the same number hit is a very good way to go BUT, I can't seem to ignore the fact that, in the long run, you can't ignore a 12%, plus or minus, increase in winnings. Sometimes, that 12% increase may be the only thing that keeps us from a losing day to a small win. I look at the long run as much as possible.

Just some food for thought. Excellent input everyone, thanks!

[pappyvanwinkle]

Most of us should be thinking "regressing" instead of "pressing."

Very true, could do an initial steep regression, like a $60 6 and 8, first hit, make it either an $18 or $30 6 and 8 and then press and then regress again from there. As we all know it's those PSO's with no hits that make it so costly.

[Seattlerick]

How does pressing anything at all, square with an average roll of 8 ???? Over the long run it is better to not press at all until you are ahead on the hand. Maybe not as fun, but definetly better for the bankroll.

[DanF]

Most of us should be thinking "regressing" instead of "pressing."

Honestly you are right. That’s where you bank what you exposed.

My fav move is 220 inside take two hits and go 51$ For 3 box num, first hit spread to full box. And start going 1 unit up/fullpress. But once i got more on table then in my rack then, it screams regress to start heh.

Usualy gets me 150-750$ per decent turn at the dices/good shooter.

You make money in this game when you pull your money before they take it lol.

[Irukanji]

At a $10 table, I'll go $12 each on the 6 & 8. First hit they both go up to $18 each. Place the dealers for a buck each. Second hit will be same bet but reload the dealer's bet. Rack the $20. Next hit will be reload the dealer's bet and place the 5 & 9 for $10 each. On succeeding hits I'll branch out to the 4 &10 and making sure the dealers will have their own place bet on each number that I have a bet on. On RRs once I get to see around a total of $100 on my place bets I'll take everything down and do a three count. If the shooter makes it past the three count, I'll jump back in and start off at 6 & 8 $12 each. Then repeat the process. BTW, this is on RRs and will also do the 6 & 8 working on the come out.

If the shooter is a known DI and seems to have everything in order, I will be a bit more aggressive and start off with $64 across (I only bet the PL when I am shooting). And try to bring everything up to green chip levels as quickly as possible. From that point it's collect then full press every other hit.

Sad/funny thing is, my betting suffers when I am shooting. It's the right brain / left brain issue all over again.

[Irukanji]

Scout, mostly correct. On myself I do PL and start off with $12 each on 6 & 8 and progress same as with RR. Once I get into my rhythm and confidence is there I'll try to quickly go to green chip level. But a lot of times I am more focused on the throw than on betting and don't get to execute the plan.

Thanks for pointing out that I forgot to describe my place bet while shooting strategy in my post above. What I meant to say was that I do not bet the PL when I am NOT the shooter. Only place bets.

PL and PB when I shoot.

[DanF]

On a 10$,

I go 12-24-30-66-66-150-18...

[DanF]

Regress for start of sessions, progress when table is hot.

Locking 300-400 early helps a lot.

You are: -10 +12 +11 +88 +81 +388 with 18 left on table.

And when I regress I take everything down to 15$ level

Sometimes I collect at 30 also 12-24-30-30-66-66-150-18.
When table is not giving long streaks.

Makes it -10 +12 +47 +46 +123 +116 +423 with 18 on table

Usually I go 34$ 6-8-9 first hit spred to 4-5 for 6$ and then I start progressions...

Theorically the 10$ level is what progress the fastest. You get paid earlier then 5$ and investment is about same after presses. Just cost a bit more on PSO

But I got plays for 5$-10$-15$ table and they’re all different. On 15$ I use regression a lot, on 5-10 I use spreads.

[Cap-n_Lou]

I'm constantly tinkering with press / regress strategies. I have a fairly simple 6-8 and a fairly simple 5-9. I try to press early to cover my action with a win or two, and then start taking profits aggressively. Once I get to $120 (on the 6-8) or $150 on the 5-9 I'll drop down to $30 or $25 levels with the first hit. I've never risked more than that, even when it's profits I'm betting with. It was really helpful to read all your ideas to compare. Thanks.

[DanF]

I’m working a new master plan after my week in Niagara Falls. Regression bets is what locks the most profits on short sessions for sure.

[Irukanji]

I’m working a new master plan after my week in Niagara Falls. Regression bets is what locks the most profits on short sessions for sure.

Looking forward to reading your master plan. Am always looking for new ideas that I can use to tweak betting methods.

[DanF]

Yeah, me too.
Also, I would like to know what triggers are used to determine which betting strategy DanF utilizes.

For triggers, I use regression on most DI when at least half of table is rolling avg around 10 with inside or outside patern throws.

For randies I use 20$ 5 or 9 and press from there.

When ever I see 200$+ pressed on table I regress to min bets only once per shooter on a winning throw or if there is too much fuss.

I play 1,2 or 3 numbers max on other player depending on his average rolls/dice technique, on a 21$/28$ win I spread to 2 more numbers and add what’s missing.

I rarely go darkside, been bitten often, but if I do I only make two flat bet per player. If they are both taken out I make one place on a number he hitted twice and progress from it.

After I regressed once I powerpress and quickly get over the 100$ collects and collect it twice before pressing again. Never take another bet down after I regressed once unless it reaches 5th point open, then I take everything down and place point to win 100$+.

I usually make 20$ Nine or five into 51$ inside or bet 51$ on someone I trust the shot. Spread first hit to cover 5 pts. Usually 4-5-6-8-9...sometimes switch an inside for 10 if it comes twice.

I bet 6-8-9 or 5-6-8 independant of point based on what has been most hot in the last hour. And progress

6&8 18-30(6&8 together)-30-66-150 or 18-42(alone)-42-90-90-210-210...if they have a number they streak more.

On me & DI I take pass for 20$, 50$ odds and 6-8-9 at 60$ or 90$ level. Take two collects and down to 51 inside no odds. Start heavy progression to collect blacks asap.

That’s the plan on good days. On bad days I hit the 5$ table and use 6-8-9 min bet first hit to 4-5-6-8-9 min bet and press it 6-18-42-42-90-90-210-210-300... same units for 5&9, 15-25-75-150-300 on 4 or 10.

The plan isn’t to get as far into progression as possible...and have a plan out/ time limit