Is 330 inside too much risk?

[DanF]

Don’t get me wrong, I love regression and 15$ table pays very good money.

I’ve been throwing succesfuly at 220$ inside level, taking my two hits and down more then often.

The thing being 2 hits is 140$ at 220 insd

Push it to 330 for 210$ profits worthy?

My point being I reinject 71$ total after regression

Which is half my profits and don’t cover my base bet much overtime. End up almost even.

Is it worth it to push for the 210 profit -71 and lock 139$ sure profit every hand I get two hits?

I risk 220 for 69 profit and need 3.18 wins to cover my betting.

Or I risk 330 for 139 profits and need 2,37 wins to cover betting.

Is it worth it to expose 110 to win 70 every turn at the dice?

[heavy]

It's entirely dependent on your bankroll, Dan. Old school "experts" say your bet should not exceed 10% of your session bankroll. Let's say that's true and you're buying in for $2500. According to the experts you could risk $250. To bet $330 inside (not my personal choice, by the way) you'd need to buy in for $3300 plus.

MY opinion is that you should look at your AVERAGE bet compared to your buy in. Let's go back to that $2500 buy in. Let's say you do that and then bet $320 across. $50 each on the outside numbers - $60 on the six and eight. Now let's take two hits. On average you're going to collect around $160 or so. Now you can regress to $110 inside and sit there until the cows come home. Average hand is around eight rolls long. After the regression you have around $50 profit locked up. Six more rolls on average before the devil shows. You'll see some trash numbers and maybe a four or ten. Let's say you get four more hits on those inside numbers. That's another $140. You've made around $300 on that hand. Take it all down and wait for a decision, then get back out there on the next hand. Average bet - around $160. By my reconing you'd need around a $1600 - $1800 session bankroll to pull that off successfully. Just SWAGGIN numbers, but I think we're close.

[DanF]

My BR is 5k, but I like to have 3 bullets in the gun per session. Brings it to 1k which is in my calc, not so bad.

My point is I expose it to 2 hits and I have a decent throw that almost reach teens on a high %.

After those two hits I’m in for 71$ and get my progression going.

[DanF]

My whole plan is to go:

20 pass with 50 odds and 255$ to complete inside.
I don’t bet over 5-10$ so I’m in for 330 with fire bet.

After 2 hits I go down to 51$ to complete inside and no odds.

Want to move it to 330 so I can go

18-30-30-66-150-18 or stay at 66 and play hardway replacing then.

Looking to lock 200$+ a hand even on short hand and powerpress faster.

[DanF]

Transposed it to a 5$ table.


10 pass 30 odds.
119$ for 35$ five 42$ 6&8.

159 total bet. 10$ pass and 17$ 5-6-8. 71$ profit/hand locked. 2.23 win to cover.

Not bad! With a 5$ table close to me.

[acpa]

Have you ever tried Mad Professors $204 approach that I believed he used on other DIs. He started with $204 across, regressed to $44 inside after two hits of $49 on any number while at the 204 lever and then semi pressed ever hit after regressing to the $44 inside.

Noah

[stratocasterman]

IMO, if your willing to stay up completely, for two hits (like I will do on myself), why not take the first hit initial bet down, add that to the payout, then equally divide that amount across your other three bets, wait for the second hit...then take them all down or regress. Yea, if you toss a repeater you lose out on a second hit, back to back but, I don't usually toss repeaters until further into the hand, if I get that far. I rarely have a repeater in the first couple of hits. Do you?

Your example...$60 6&8, $50 5&9, let's WOTCO
Toss a point of say 9, first hit...take it down, press the 6&8 to $102 each, the 5 to $86
Toss an 8, second hit...$119 payout instead of $70
Take it all down for $189

That's $49 more profit, without the extra initial outlay risk.

I war-game this in Wincraps all the time, while I am practicing ($56 even numbers WOTCO). It jump starts me to a nice profit and I usually just regress to a $22-44 level after the second hit. I'm paid for and can go whatever direction I think I need to do depending on the toss.

[Lkwd]

The trick with regressions is getting to the regression!

DanF

Scout is one of the old time members here on the board and an excellent player. The above is excellent words of wisdom......


Lkwd

[mssthis1]

The trick with regressions is getting to the regression!

Agreed. I buy in for an amount that will cover 3 hands with 0 hits. If I have 3 hands in a short time that do not get to a regression and don't have enough in the rack for a another full bet outlay, I'm looking for a different strategy or something else to do.

[DanF]

The trick with regressions is getting to the regression!

DanF

Scout is one of the old time members here on the board and an excellent player. The above is excellent words of wisdom......


Lkwd

Right, but if you are reading right, I am already getting there with 220...my question was should I push it to 330 to profit even more from 6-8 rolls avg?

[London Shooter]

You'll know in your stomach if 330 across is too much for you. Gut feel when it comes to gambling over staking is the best sign there is that you are in too deep.

Scout makes an excellent point - bankroll and the mental game - what do you do after three PSOs? 330 all of a sudden becomes 44 inside and then the monster appears - in short you are f*cked as you will not properly captialise on the one hand that we all live for via consistent, properly funded strategies.

[DanF]

I’m not worried about capitalising monsters. My progression game is systematic non and I am not scared to press chips. Like I said, I plan to use 330 at some point to raise profits from short hands, but most times I am using progressive system instead of regression and only switch when conditions are right.

[DanF]

As for answering your question - or at least one facet of it - I feel it is based on the bankroll. Use a constant percentage - ie Kelly criterion - of your bankroll and play it out consistently.

The comments above lean to some of the consequences of playing a regression strategy. They are certainly something to note while entertaining a regression strategy.

Key in on steadfast discipline and consistency. If the bankroll is steadily moving upwards, increase the starting bets relative to it.

Sounds great.

I didn’t pull the trigger today...
Went for 160 inside 8 as point.
Collected my two hits, started my progression and sevened out on 8 throw lol. Bah nice session still, +280 & 50$ comps rewards, nice session for 45 mins monday night.

Some guy had a good roll, I started 20$ nine and he hit it.
I moved winner to 6&8 @18$ for 8$. Then I collected a six for 35$, pressed 6,8,9 to 66,66,50, grabbed two hits on nine, put the 4 for 20 & collected& pressed to 25, grabbed a six and regressed to 51 inside. Then I moved six to 42, collected once 49, pressed to 90 & collected 100$, 5$ tip, and he SO. Very nice boost for a 20$ start, was almost 350 up, then it cost me & I got back a bit.

[DanF]

So I worked the numbers, saw what I could do to tweek up the system. What I wanted is a regression that locks 100$ and build progression from there.

Two things stroke me. I want to progress from the 3 units level. 18-42-90 ...I want to take greens/black asap out. After regression.

So i wanted a full inside cover but I had to give up the 5.

So pass line 15-20$ no odds. Place 51$ 6-8-9 for 4 numbers covered. Was my goal... it costs 66-71$.

I then thought to go to 330 to pass the 100$ mark but realised I only have to add 44 over 220.

So pass for 15; 5 for 60$, 6 for 72$, 8 for 72$, 9 for 60$. If pass is on an inside go 60-75 still and lock 90+15pass instead of 84$. But still plan for two 84$ collect and down to 51$ 3 units 6-8-9+15$ pass.

Pays 168-66, lock 102 and progress.

This way I risk a bit more but get a black locked without risking too much my presses won’t cover on a loss.

I looked into progression too, start at 18 instead of 30(66 instead of 110) locks more profits and is more expandable. 18 to 42 for 3, collect 1-2x, press to 90(collect 1), collect 1, press to 210, collect 1, press to 420, collect 1, press to 900, only collect from there. So 18-42-42-42-90-90-210-210-420-420-900....10 hits you collect 1050$’s a pop. I like it.

[Knick111]

Greetings Dan f,

All these systems on paper are winners,
What do you do IF you And other shooters start Shooting POINT SEVEN OUT/// PP seven out.?

The system is a Money making machine IF you don't get greedy.

and if you stay away from shooting POINT SEVEN OUT/// and point /// point SEVEN OUT.

Jaime. 9/24/ 2018 10:pm

[DanF]

That’s why you need rules to limit your exposure. You don’t go throwing 300$ around on every shooters when it’s not going your way at first. This is just a part of the plan and you need a loss limit too.

I know people who play this on every shooters and get lucky, but I only play it on good DI’s, on a hot table.

[DanF]

So while I’m waiting for my next outing, I reviewed heavy’s 30-30 regress to adjust it to my signature numbers 6-8-9. Herés what I came up with:

6&8 42$ each, 35$ nine. (119$ invested)
First hit drop to 51$ 6-8-9 min 2$ at risk.

6&8 after regression go:
18-24-54-66-90-90-210-210-420-900-900...

Nine :

15-20-50-60-125-125-300-400-750...

Never regress after first hit. Take 15$ 4&10 after 50$+ racked.

[DanF]

I don’t recommand anything, but I plan not to for that system.

I already said I use many different systems depending on what vibe I get from table.

I never start playing with regression betting, I read what I see the average is and act upon progression, spreading, regression, darkside, lay’s.

[DanF]

Greetings Dan f,

All these systems on paper are winners,
What do you do IF you And other shooters start Shooting POINT SEVEN OUT/// PP seven out.?

The system is a Money making machine IF you don't get greedy.

and if you stay away from shooting POINT SEVEN OUT/// and point /// point SEVEN OUT.

Jaime. 9/24/ 2018 10:pm

I tried it. Had something like 7-10 pso and -1k swing on an app, lets say I have an history of abetter throw. But it happens and you get a losing session or two.

Worst isn’t the pso, it’s the 3 diff point and out, you press your bets and it kills it. That system makes the small wins and the big wins easy. But yeah, you will have losing day like any other system.

The point is it’s doing an okay job, and it’s scalable.

You can play a 10-15-25$ game with 1 hit at risk. Only reason I can see playing 5$ table on this system is to bet 5$ on left outs to progress em. Now we’re talking combo play and more risk.

I scaled it to my usual 60$ 6&8, 50$ nine, drop to 30$ 6&8 and 25$ nine. That’s 15$ risk after regression for 25$ table play.

6&8: 30-42-42-90-150-210-210-420-900

Or you can use my 170$ go 15$ 4&10, 30$ 6&8. 20$ at risk.


My point is you can get pso’d all day. But I use a 3 loss max. And change my play until I see a new opening.

[DanF]

Hi DanF,

..."I already said I use many different systems depending on what vibe I get from table."...

Yep, I'm just trying to understand the one you recently mentioned.

Thanks for listing your plays.

I list my play for two reason, I can access it and see my progression in my game and because people helped my be a profitable player and I want to return the service to others.

I find that the more you come prepared with more then one plans depending on what you see is the average hand of the night you play, the more you are bound to see the little things of the game develloping in front of you.

I have cheap hands plan, spreading plays, press heavy plays, collect heavy plays. Regress after 1 or 2, darkside without odds or with lays/odds.

I love this game, sometimes it’s a damn bitch! But when you pull 1k$ + for 2-3 tightsessions in a week, it makes you feel great!

I had a great run last year, followed by a very bad couple months, now it’s decent, but I don’t hit jackpots so often. I’m a grinder, overtime I am making money, but I do see some -600$ session from time to time...I’m still learning to get better, and I have a good day job to cover the bad days. This is just my fun time, even better when I score a good profit!