Strategy of boxcars

[spunkyvt]

Is it possible for a DI to get more box cars than random allows for and if DI can, why not bet for the 30 to 1? At what point of the DI percentage of rolls would that not be a good bet or is it always a bad bet?

[London Shooter]

I think the answer is fairly straightforward as it usually is with the high house edge bets - if you can generate more 12s than random, say using the straight 6s set, then why not use the hardways set and use your skill to generate more 8s and/or 6s instead?

You need one hell of an advantage to overcome a 30 to 1 payment that should be 35 to 1. It's like playing 4 zero roulette. Not even the Venetian does that (yet)

[pappyvanwinkle]

I believe Heavy and I are the only ones who kinda go for the horns, though typically at least for me only on the come out roll. Generally the play would be to toss a $5 world and a $2 hi/lo. The most I can recall getting was pressing up the world up to $25, so thats like 5 horns. I believe Heavy has beaten that record though.

Like irish says, it's fun to be paid off immediately like that.

[heavy]

Crimson Tide always bets a Horn High Twelve on the Come Out when he's shooting. He, like me, is a "see a horn bet a horn" kind of guy. I've seen him do very well with it.

I used to nail twelves left and right. In my dotage I don't seem to be able to connect on them as often. My record is (CORRECTED TO READ SIX) consecutive twelves, back about ten years ago in Bossier City. A week later I tossed four aces in a row over in Vicksburg. I find that it tends to be feast or famine - which is the variance thing Irish talks bout.

[London Shooter]

12 consecutive 12s ???

[spunkyvt]

London, since I am new, and still uncertain as to all the dice set permutations and how they shake out when you pitch or double pitch. Does the straight six have more ways to hit a 7 vs the hardway sets for 6 and 8s, given that you might pitch or double pitch? If there are less ways to hit a 7 with the straight 6 than the hardways, wouldn't it be better to try for the boxcar bet? ............... ok went and got some dice.... the hardway set has all 7s if you double pitch, the straight 6 has 2 7s if you double pitch. What about the dice set where one 6 is vertical and the other is horizontal. It seems there is only 2 ways if you double pitch. Maybe I am getting hung up on the double pitch, since I am new, it happening about 11-12% of time according to BT.

Irish, The variance you are talking about is that in a session, or over multiple sessions, or even over lifetime? I would think tosses in one session, for good DI, would be pretty stable for a session, or am I assuming wrong? Again please forgive my newness and ignorance.

Heavy, wow 12 consecutive!!!!!! Since you are see a horn bet a horn, wouldn't you set for that at start of session and if dialed in start to hammer those bets and if not, then do another strategy. Wouldn't that help with the variance.. at least the betting P/L variance?

[Bankerdude80]

Maybe a short consecutive horn tossing contest at a seminar in the future? It would be a good example of how fast the BR drains on the HA bets.
At least for most of us.

[heavy]

Heavy, wow 12 consecutive!!!!!!

OOPS! My bad. I accidentally put 12 in both places. It was actually SIX consecutive twelves. Even so, the odds of that happening are something like one in 186 million or so. (Been a long time since I actually calculated that but that's close I think.)

Sorry to disappoint you.

h

[fishinggoddess60]

I play the whirl(world) all the time on the come out. I do it to protect my passline and cash in on those boxcars and aces. The way I look at it, I Only have to bet $5, and the win is $30. Where I play, most C/Os have atleast one horn # on %50 of C/Os. Some hit more than once. If I can profit on the C/O then I can play mostly on "casino" dollars for that shooter. My husband rolls a lot of craps on the c/o and during his roll (once he rolled all craps and 2 yos in one roll). If he hits two or three of those bets on the comeout, (I rarely put a passline on him for that reason, more profit!! lol) I can pretty much bet across on him from the very start and still end up with a couple bucks profit even if he S/Os in a couple rolls. I normally will watch the table and see who is rolling craps and when, and bet the horn during the roll accordingly. I won't do it on a Randy however. Even if I don't play the whirl or horn, I still might put a buck or two on the any craps/yo if I know a shooter tends to roll them. On a yo, a $1 bet, I can do it 15 times before it becomes a loss. They tend to show up much more frequently than that. On the any craps if I play $1, I can do it 7 times before it becomes a loss. I think of craps rolls during a shooter roll as part of the avg rolls before a 7. They are wasted rolls if you are not betting on them, so why not? I know many believe the horn and whirl are a waste, but all in all during a session, I usually come out ahead on that bet, than behind.

[heavy]

For years I bet a $5 World combined with a $2 high low as part of my come out game - not as a protection bet, but as a profit bet (albeit entertainment). Lately I've been using it more as a protection bet when I'm plying the ATS bet on tables with a $5 minimum per feature. I play a $10 PL bet as a partial hedge for the $15 ATS bet, then hedge the PL bet with a $5 World plus $1 Ace-Deuce. Yeah, I know I'm hedging my hedges. Most sessions it seems to work out okay, though. I tossed five horn numbers on the come out in Laughlin last week - with several ace-deuces in the mix as well as one yo - and made a tidy sum since I pressed that action $6 after every hit.

[fishinggoddess60]

Funny you should mention the hedges. I have read so many things about not hedging and still am not able to understand why hedging is such a bad thing. It can get very confusing if you have too many bets on the table, and I don't think the dealers enjoy them too much, but why wouldn't one want to protect their bets? So The only time I can see hedging as being bad is if it is costing you $80 to win $81 then why bother? But if you are hedging $5 to protect $5 and can win a net of $21, then that is not really hedging, that is a bet.

[London Shooter]

Assuming you are not on the wind-up hegding = more money on the table = more house edge you are giving up to the casino. Often hedges are stupid high edge bets e.g. "any craps". Take a step back, and in this example, if you are so scared of your PL bet that you are having to hedge with a craps check, then drop your stake on the PL to a more comfortable level.

[Moe Bettor]

Sure. Hedging just makes more $ for the house. Many forget how many times it goes against them because you get a nice addition to yr BR and a shot of endorphin pleasure when that hi-lo hits. And sometimes the hedges just hit one after another..like hop bets. If you set for them..like x6s and are able to bang them out..great. I do use the world bet from SO with x6s. Never on other shooters.

[pappyvanwinkle]

The main issue I have with hedging is that it's cutting into your potential profit. It goes to what the main goal you are trying to accomplish. Is it to make as much profit as possible, make a minimal profit, minimize your losses etc. Those are all different things. If you are trying to maximize your potential winnings, you're going to have to have more money at risk.

Also, think about the hedge this way. Figure out how much money you spent, in addition, to make the hedge bet, now figure out how often the hedge actually worked and it didn't work. Calculate how much more money you would've made by not making the hedge, factoring in how often you just plain lost and make the comparison. In the long run, did the hedge save you money or actually cost you money.

Think of it like the insurance bet in blackjack.

Pappy

[mssthis1]

But, just so you know, many years ago, Maddog and I devised a horn progression. I think it was 14 steps? Something like that. In all the times we tested, it never failed to make money (real table, fake chips). However, there were multiple times where we were making crazy huge horn bets, and hitting them finally only guaranteed that we recouped our losses, plus $20 or something. Seriously, with the progression we were in the hole for $300 in horn bets and winning meant a payoff of $320.

Fun. Not worth it. Couldn't keep up with other bets once you were 6-8 steps into the progression.

Been there, done that, came to the same conclusion.

[Moe Bettor]

How does a dice setting which produces those kinds of bets figure in if you can hit them more regularly? I guess then it isn't really a hedge bet. Then..does a six and eight bet become the hedge? Yeesh.

[acpa]

I knew a guy in Tunica, don't remember his name now, who did what I remember about the same thing, but at least once, he hit the table max limit and lost a bundle.

Have you ever had a similar problem? What is the table max limit where you play this?

Noah

[fishinggoddess60]

How does a dice setting which produces those kinds of bets figure in if you can hit them more regularly? I guess then it isn't really a hedge bet. Then..does a six and eight bet become the hedge? Yeesh.

Agree totally. If one is using the parallel sixes or the crossed sixes and have any kind of control of the dice then it is more or less a controlled throw and money to made. If of course a DI is using hard 4 or 5s, and their dice are staying on axis, then it would not be wise to keep betting a horn on them as the chances are slim to none and you might as well hand the casino your bankroll and leave. Right?

[London Shooter]

If you are using crossed 6s and producing horn numbers through control then switch your set and start producing box numbers. You are going to win a lot more that way in the long run than p*ssing around with silly bets with double figure edges.

[fishinggoddess60]

Thanks LS. I don't use the crossed sixes. Hubster does. Have suggested, like talking to a wall. lol...... He likes to use it because it seems to produce less 7's for him. Last week though, he did use a 3-1 set and that did well for him too. really like that one, lots of 4's........................ We are both new to craps and still learning. He is a much better shooter than I and more consistent. ( I am vertically challenged and have to stand on my tippy toes to shoot. I am 5'2 and have fairly long legs for my height, but short the rest of the way up. It is a bit awkward, no matter how much I practice on our table at home, the casino table is about an inch taller). If I stand on the dealer side hook, I cannot even reach the field bet, have to throw the chip and announce that is what it is and have to have the dealer or someone slide any payout. I know excuses, excuses, but I gotta learn to live with it because I am not going to grow any taller. But if there is one thing I have been watching for is on the C/O what set is being used and are there lots of yo's, 12, 2's coming from it. I rarely ever bet on the horn mid roll. Unless it is my hubster who one night threw a yo, an ace/deuce, another yo, box cars then 2 all in a row!!! By the time I was able to see what was happening, only got to bet on a couple of them, but now I watch, if he starts rolling them, then I start betting on it, especially hi-lo, yo.