The ISR. (Intial Steep Regression)

[Bankerdude80]

When integrating an ISR into your betting strategy, how many hits should one take before making a regression move?

The goal is seven avoidance and to make a profit on short rolls if they occur.
Example.
$134 Even numbers ($25,$42,$42,25).
If any of these numbers hit, it is a $50 for $1 payout (net $49).
It takes 3 hits to recoup initial outlay of $134, plus a $13 profit while leaving initial bets on the table.
The regression is to $86 Across ($15,$10,$18,$18,$10,$15) and then follow a standard pressing schedule from there.
Is it better to regress after 3rd hit or after 2nd hit?

Regressing after 2nd hit with a seven out on attempt at 3rd hit results in a $12 net profit.*
Regressing after 3rd hit with a seven out on attempt at 4th hit results in a $61 net profit.*

*Does not account for PL + PL odds, bonus bets, or any hardway bets.

How many hits would you take before you regressed?

[wiremonkey]

At my particular haunt, the bewitching throw seems to come around 3 or 4, so for myself, the 2nd hit would be the most correct move.

[DanF]

When integrating an ISR into your betting strategy, how many hits should one take before making a regression move?

The goal is seven avoidance and to make a profit on short rolls if they occur.
Example.
$134 Even numbers ($25,$42,$42,25).
If any of these numbers hit, it is a $50 for $1 payout (net $49).
It takes 3 hits to recoup initial outlay of $134, plus a $13 profit while leaving initial bets on the table.
The regression is to $86 Across ($15,$10,$18,$18,$10,$15) and then follow a standard pressing schedule from there.
Is it better to regress after 3rd hit or after 2nd hit?

Regressing after 2nd hit with a seven out on attempt at 3rd hit results in a $12 net profit.*
Regressing after 3rd hit with a seven out on attempt at 4th hit results in a $61 net profit.*

*Does not account for PL + PL odds, bonus bets, or any hardway bets.

How many hits would you take before you regressed?

Believe me this play works better when you regress after 1-2 hits. 3 hits you need a full dial in. Remember you’re not across.
There will be 5&9 throws and craps, you will sweat it. So consider betting more but hold less rolls.

I do 220 regression 2 hits.

[DanF]

What I use now is 36$ each on 6&8, first hit take 25$ each on 4&10 for 10$, same bets on 4&10 or up a unit on 6&8. You invest 82$ and pull two greens a pop. Then progress.

The pit is f’n nervious when I go on a roll lol, I get to 300$ bets after 5 hits.

I won’t detail the whole thing but I use the same on others with 18$ bets.

[stratocasterman]

At my particular haunt, the bewitching throw seems to come around 3 or 4, so for myself, the 2nd hit would be the most correct move.

I'm with wiremonkey on this...

[mssthis1]

At my particular haunt, the bewitching throw seems to come around 3 or 4, so for myself, the 2nd hit would be the most correct move.

I'm with wiremonkey on this...

Me too. 2 hits and regress is my standard regression play.

I believe the decisions you make when you have the inevitable bad run is the key, for me personally at least. I make a buy in about equal to 3 hands not making regression. If I lose that I find something else to do. In Vegas it may be a table change. Here at home where that usually isn't an option, it's time to find another game or vacate the casino.

[dork]

I've never done very well playing for 3 hits regularly. Two hits is demanding enough for me with MP's $204 WOTC Across bet (me shooting or someone I trust with the dice who's not trying to nail Whirls & 7s).

However, I've been gaming a different WOTC that I think was either Stratocasterman's or Wildchild's. (Sorry I can't remember whom to credit.) Anyway, the strategy is $220 Inside ($50 5/9 and $60 6/8). On the first hit, take the $70 winnings and add it to the hit number's place bet, which then totals either $120 or $130. On the theory that the first payoff number will not be bull-frogged, spread that place bet money and winnings amongst the other three numbers like so : add 7 units to all three other numbers... sooo...

first hit on 9 pays $70; 70+50 = 120
make the 5 an $85 bet (add $35), the 6/8 go to $102 (add $42 each) and hope for a second hit which would pay $119 for the 5, 6 or 8. Regress or take down. Profit on two hits is $189. PSO recovery rate requires 2.14 payoff hits to recover from the PSO. Gaming it against MP's $204, I've had more success with the "Spread the $120 Place/winnings" than I have with the $204 system.

Instead of leaving the 4/10 dry, I've been adding another $50 to the $220 Inside with a $25 bet at the corners. If the 4/10 hit, I take down the 4/10 bets and wait for one more hit; profit is $115 for two hits.

My dice set has been the Hardways set, 5/4-5/4, which kind of explains the "need" for the 4/10 bets.

[rhythm roller]

My usual is to bet across---$204 normally on myself and minimum 6&8 on others. I am in the 2 hit camp and regress so I have a small profit. Need to make up any PSO's and PPSO's somewhere along the line so don't want too many of these to bring bankroll back. Think it is a good idea to check bone tracker for info such as average box numbers to 7, etc. Maybe the same idea as MP's SRR. Think that may send you in the right direction on how many hits before you choose to regress.

[DanF]

At my particular haunt, the bewitching throw seems to come around 3 or 4, so for myself, the 2nd hit would be the most correct move.

I'm with wiremonkey on this...

Me too. 2 hits and regress is my standard regression play.

I believe the decisions you make when you have the inevitable bad run is the key, for me personally at least. I make a buy in about equal to 3 hands not making regression. If I lose that I find something else to do. In Vegas it may be a table change. Here at home where that usually isn't an option, it's time to find another game or vacate the casino.

The best reason to only take two hits is that you also hurt your progression after. The more you wait to transition, the more you miss the big pay after too!

[skasower]

But there is always the long hands potential for some of you who are well practiced and getting proficient like BD and some others. So, I believe that the regression whatever it is has to be adequate to get your buy in back while leaving the opportunity open for the 15, 20, or more tosses with numbers, HWs, and $s. So, discussions of regression only feeds my paranoia. I go into the casino to gamble. This is Not a stock purchase. Therefore, too conservative end one up with little losses in the short run and large annual drains on the gambling budget.

Please then, I would like to hear about what happens after the regression. Do you limit the pressing to just the winnings? Do you dip into the gambling budget? (If you dip, then why regress?)

Sorry if I am yanking this topic a bit off course here.

skasower...aka...still practicing and is learning by losing.

[memo]

I have long been an advocate of an ISR approach. That being said...I find my self moving away from it over the last year or so...Keep that in mind.

Irish points out that ISR reduces the volatility, and at the same time it reduces your profit. He knows it mathematically, I know it in my gut. One thing that it did do, was allow me to step up my betting level.

I would usually take three hits at minimum..MP designed his 204 for 2 hits and then regress to inside. I believe tying regression to SRR is nebulous at best..How many of us have a SRR of 8 or 9..? Maybe on a streak.
When I am streaking short rolls (And I know when I am doing it)..I take 2 hits and regress.
When I am streaking long rolls, I can feel that also. I will go 3 or even 4 hits...And, um...When I go four hits, I feel real good with my toss, and many times will not regress at all. 5th hit will pretty much get you even.

What it really boils down to is risk tolerance and bank roll. Heavy calculates how or what it will take to get even, for each roll. DanF knows exactly where he is and balances that with his risk tolerance and toss characteristics. A very disciplined approach, where as mine is adjusted according to my toss at the time. A plan that I modify with the conditions. (Number of hits before regression)

By far, my favorite is the 204 with a regression. However due to the confusion it causes, I went to something simpler. Every one knows what a 135 or 130 across, including is...204 across is a game stopper. Ask me how I know.

Bottom line is that we all have short or long rolls. If you have the confidence and knowledge of your toss to work through some short costly hands, the ISR gives a means to bet a bit larger, and still be around to profit on the long ones.

Memo

[House of Orange]

A shame Stanford Wong doesn’t post here.

[mssthis1]

By far, my favorite is the 204 with a regression. However due to the confusion it causes, I went to something simpler. Every one knows what a 135 or 130 across, including is...204 across is a game stopper. Ask me how I know.

Bottom line is that we all have short or long rolls. If you have the confidence and knowledge of your toss to work through some short costly hands, the ISR gives a means to bet a bit larger, and still be around to profit on the long ones.

Memo

Good post. I also bet an even amount on each number and let time sort things out. I also feel odd bets like $204 across is a game stopper.


I also use the ISR to bet larger in the beginning and still be around for the long hands. You do need to be bankrolled well enough to survive the periods where you get picked off. Total bankroll, not session bankroll.

[skasower]

Thank you folks for giving me a little glimpse into your internal "calculations." I will have to give ISR some consideration and combine it with my inner desire to "lay it on the line" gambling.
skasower

[memo]

I also feel odd bets like $204 across is a game stopper.


I also use the ISR to bet larger in the beginning and still be around for the long hands. You do need to be bankrolled well enough to survive the periods where you get picked off. Total bankroll, not session bankroll.

With 204, no matter what two hits you get...You collect 98 dollars.
Make a regression, say, to 96 across and you have that working for you and 2 dollars profit. Three hits, 51 dollars profit and can still work your bets in what ever fashion you want..
A'La Heavy progression comes to mind here..
These calculations can be done with what ever beginning bet you want
204, 165 across, even numbers...Yada, yada..

The real 'gut' stuff is determining when to regress.
Lets say you go for the third hit and seven out. Well, you have covered half of initial wager. Can you come back with your initial bet once or twice more and not throw up? If not, you need to try something else.

My girlfriend watched me throw three PSO's in a row in about three and a half minutes. I thought she was going to throw up.... Yeah, I was still betting 204 and yes, it was hell coming back. She doesn't much like to stand with me at the tables anymore.

Actually, it is not that hard to recover...96 dollars working for you, paid for, and profit (2, 51) what ever...It doesn't take that much of a hand to get there from here. (Yeah, I am not an english major)

Memo

[DanF]

I’m all for ISR on good table conditions. But you gotta have a plan B along with it. Can’t go on when it’s not working. It’ll kick your ass quick. It’s why I limit myself when I use it to DI’s showing numbers on their throw. Never ever on a randy.

On a randy. I place the point. And work with what I win. 15-25-30 on single. Or 12$ 6&8

[AlBTossin]

BD,
When I feel good about my toss, I like to play $110 inside and give myself 5 tosses to hit 3 numbers. Regress after 3 numbers or 5 tosses which ever comes first. I regress to $66 inside and press up from there. Setting the number of tosses takes the problem out of second guessing yourself of when to regress.

[Moe Bettor]

Not a bad way to go in my opinion. What's your buy in? 1K?

[Bankerdude80]

All good comments with thoughts to ponder.

[memo]

I’m all for ISR on good table conditions. But you gotta have a plan B along with it. Can’t go on when it’s not working. It’ll kick your ass quick. It’s why I limit myself when I use it to DI’s showing numbers on their throw. Never ever on a randy.

On a randy. I place the point. And work with what I win. 15-25-30 on single. Or 12$ 6&8

DanF,

I couldn't agree more. If not prepared, this could eat you up quickly. Thinking it through, war-gaming, testing, as you have written about in detail...Is essential.
After that and possibly most important is knowing your self, and having proper bank roll (always the bank roll)

Wizard took the position that one should be equipped to do his designed ISR fifty times, minimum, over the course of a trip. In this case, he only bets on himself. He believes with that much exposure, his advantage should prevail. He has a lot of self confidence, and for good reason.

A person that throws three PSO's in a row and digresses to 44 inside, has little chance to make up for the large initial losses incurred before. And I hate eating all those extra meals after vomiting so much.

Memo