Steep regression play on tables with known shooters

[220Inside]

Next month, I'm spending a long weekend with a group of great shooters. One night, we have a private table which will be $25 min, something I've been uncomfortable playing up until this point. I had been considering combining bankrolls with another shooter who is also uncomfortable playing at that level, and doing some sort of conservative play which we haven't fully worked through yet as we both have some level of FOMO if we were to sit out the session and miss a hot table with this group of shooters.

Lately though I've been considering rethinking that approach and going on my own. I figure it's about time I start testing the waters with these higher minimum tables as my bankroll has grown enough the past few years to support it. With a group this strong, there are a couple of shooters that I want to be a little more aggressive with and not do a total grind it out play.

For these targeted shooters I've been toying with a steep regression play that seems to war game itself reasonably well so far

$25 PL, $4 3-way hedge, heavy on the ace-deuce
After come out, and qualifying the shooter, go $135 across ($130 if point is 6/8), 1x odds

First two hits, up a unit across, rack the rest
Third hit, rack the win and regress to $110 even or inside, depending on the shooter and what they've hit to that point.

Assuming I get to the regression step, at the worst, say 2 hits on inside numbers, I'm back to essentially even or up a couple bucks. Other scenarios, with both hits on 4 or 10 lock up slightly more on the order of $30. Best case is bullfrogging a couple of points.

From there, it's into a more normal press schedule. I've even been toying around with a modified version of DanF's more aggressive 6/8 press schedule that he posted on another thread recently:
30, 42, 42, 90, 90, 180, 300, 600, 900, 900, 900

Again, this would be used on a small number of trusted shooters only.

Thoughts?

[Dicepops]

Yikes. Pretty heavy for me to think about but interesting.

What's your buy-in session amount?

[220Inside]

$2000

[heavy]

If you actually TRUST one of those guys to partner up with then a simple mirror play is an easy way to go when betting on other shooters. One of you plays the Four and Six. The other plays the Eight and Ten. Buy the Four or Ten for $31 if you can get if at that level and just pay $1 vig. Place the Six or Eight for $30. Agree on a press schedule that you'll both follow. For example, lock up the first hit on the Four or Ten, paying for all of the action on both bets. Drop $2 on the Six or Eight hit and press it to $42, locking up $25 on the first hit. Collect $50 for $1 on the next. Then you're off to the races. You have to agree to buy in for equal amounts, keep an eagle eye on each other and go to the cage together at the end of the session to cash out and split profits (or share losses) equally. Odds are none of those guys will be the five or nine so you'll have to figure out how to handle that if you want that action. Also, how to handle betting when you are shooting.

I hope you guys do well at these sessions. I know there are some very good shooters involved. However, you have a couple of guys in there who are going to (IMHO) wreak havoc on your mental game at some point. I'd probably take ear plugs. Just saying.

[220Inside]

The earplugs are already packed, believe me And the trust factor was another concern I had kicking around in my head after initially teaming up with one of them. I'm also looking to step a bit out of my comfort zone that defines my current play and see about pushing the envelope a bit.

I tossed three practice hands with this play last night as I continue to war game how it behaves.
First hand of 25 rolls. Hit ATS and got a couple of levels into the 6 and 8 progressions. Profit of about $800
Second hand PSO. Would have lost $165 on myself, but not on other shooters as they would not have been qualified yet
Third hand 14 rolls, profit of about $150

[220Inside]

Heavy, any thoughts on the play itself, regardless of the earplug requirement?

[Big O]

My two cents, go it alone. After playing with you a few times i think you could successfully pull off a team play with the right individual. However with your skill level and knowledge of the game i think you will do fine on your own. I also get the since you are looking to step up to this new challenge and would feel like it was a kind of hollow victory to do it as a team. Although, up a couple of grand walk to the cage with a teammate would probably take care of that feeling. A win is a win anyway you can get it. t\Take the money and run. Anxious to hear how it goes.

[Moe Bettor]

Me too. I've thought of upping my game to $60 6 and 8 anyway.

[DanF]

Well the plan works, you will have up’s and down’s tho, be ready to have a 600$ loss from time to time, look for tells you are on a bad run to cut your losses on bad days and leave for another day. That’s where I set my loss limit at that level. If you have a 2000$ bank you have 3 bullets to start with. One thing I would say to you is try to keep as much profits as you can until you reach 10k. Which could take a lil while. Then you will comfortably play at that level. Tho with 2k I would play a 15$ game and not a 25$...
18-24-54-90-90-180-210-300-660-900. Is my tweak of the week.
Pressing first hit is -EV long term. Going up a unit on first hit is what has made me profitable for the last 5 months.
If you dare play 25$ table, make it
36-42-90-90-180-210-300-660-900.

If you play in Vegas, I suggest Paris, Bally’s, NYNY, Bellagio or SLS. Usually the crowd is mostly skilled, Can’t wait for my next stop down there! For now I’m stuck at trying to beat 14’s...I’m actually writting a gambling e-book, so Hello business trips!

[Moe Bettor]

I do agree with Dan. You are way overstepping your buy-in, but it depends on how
the shooting is going. Great shooters have lousy days too. On that picture of almost 85K. I hope you didn't start with a 100K.

[DanF]

Think it was either 1k or 10k. It’s been over a year.

I won in live play as well, but I spend a lot, but I’ve been clearly up on my play, despite two bad streak, the year has been good to me.

[Bankerdude80]

22inside, you could implement your ISR play on the first two shooters you think are qualified, but ready to abandon it if it goes South on them. The plan being to get a head start as long as it is working. If it works on those two shooters, use it on the next two, etc. How many and how much in losses are you willing to weather? It's a negative expectation game being played, but hopefully the group you are playing with can overcome that with their DI skills. Everyone wants to win, but a firm stop-loss and being able to accept a small loss is par for the course. Don't be afraid to pull the plug if you have to and fight again at the next session. Variance is part of the game, being able to manage it is key.

[r_ventura_23]

I have considered the partner thing with a buddy who will play but not as die hard as me. The reasoning is the $25 tables are always empty, and the $10 and $15 packed. This would allow me to shoot mostly by myself. As Heavy mentioned, to keep him involved he would play certain numbers and I would handle others.

It could work as long as your partner gets a spot at the table. If every spot is filled and he has to watch over your back.....that might not be fun for him.

Also curious, how you got a private table, and what rules are stipulated? I am guessing they set the minimum at $25?

[220Inside]

I have considered the partner thing with a buddy who will play but not as die hard as me. The reasoning is the $25 tables are always empty, and the $10 and $15 packed. This would allow me to shoot mostly by myself. As Heavy mentioned, to keep him involved he would play certain numbers and I would handle others.

It could work as long as your partner gets a spot at the table. If every spot is filled and he has to watch over your back.....that might not be fun for him.

Also curious, how you got a private table, and what rules are stipulated? I am guessing they set the minimum at $25?

A host arranged it for our group. Yes, it's a $25 min table with a $2000 minimum buy in.

The person I was partnering up with initially and I have already agreed to go solo. We independently came to the same idea right around the same time. I was hoping this thread would be more about the ISR play itself and not the fact that I was at one point thinking of merging bankrolls with someone for a spot at the table. FWIW, our initial plan was to join bankrolls and play from a single spot on the table, as the available spots were limited given the size of our group.

Thanks for all of the feedback everyone.

[DanF]

25$ table usually is better then lower limits, but on bad days...you dent your bankroll quick.

But when you win...I made a 35 roll that cost the casino 30k for 5 of us less then a month ago, they know my name now lol.

[220Inside]

Nice. Hoping for similar results next month

The ISR play has held up ok so far in practice. I've had a couple of decent rolls in the low 20's that have yielded good results and have more than helped to offset the losses on hands where I didn't make it to the third hit to trigger the regression. But I do realize the volatility of this play and that it can go south quickly in cold conditions, which is why I'm only targeting its use on a small number of shooters (2-4) that will be at the table and run a much more conservative play for the rest. Given that we'll have a full table and that I'll only be rolling this out for a limited number of shooters, unless the table gets really hot really quick, I figure I'll only have to pull this play out 10-12 times over the course of the time we'll be at the table.

In the meantime, I'll continue to war game it in practice to see how it holds up and whether I should tweak it or not or look for something else.

[DanF]

Well since that session, december has been stagnation time for me. So I wish you better luck then I have at the moment lol. Was planning to get to the cruise with your crew, but so far it’s going to be postponed.

We never know, but with 11 days to the month left...and my vacations just starting, I hope my live play kicks back to normal...hard to understand after a big winning streak lol.

[heavy]

Well, pretty much everything I would have said has been said. I know for a fact that SOME of these guys are very good shooters. I know for a fact that SOME of these guys couldn't turn a profit at Joker's Wild, much less at a $25 game at Caesars or some such place. You definitely need to pick your shooters carefully. And if ever (please God don't strike me down) had occasion to use some sort of qualifier like the five, six, or ninety-two count this would be the occasion to do so. At LEAST don't bet until the shooter gets past PSO territory. The exception - if you bet the Pass Line play a single Come Bet on the second toss BEFORE taking odds. See where it goes from there. As for regressions, man, there are as many as there are players. With sufficient bankroll I like $320 across for two hits - down to $160 across, then after two more hits strip off any bets that haven't paid their rent and ride it out, but that's a ballsy play. I suspect if I were playing this game I'd play OHCM to begin with. Once I got a feel for how things were going I'd bet a PL bet on the better shooters and Place the Six and Eight only. I'd continue with OHCM on the lesser shooters - or just play the Don'ts on them and say "Fuck friendship. Prove me wrong." I think that's very close to being a Shootitall quote, although I don't think he'd include the "F" bomb.

[Americraps]

Go easy on the first 1 or 2 rounds around the table. Quit after the 5th or 6th round. In every group shoot I've been on ( admittedly, only a few) the middle rounds were the rightside profitable ones.

[robchell]

I believe at a $25 min table the 3 way hedge has to be $5 ea.