Standard deviation? A normal data set accounts for 68% of the probable results.
Wouldn't this indicated in a limited session that 32% of the data will be outside of the statistical probability? It can be +/- our probability expectations for the session.
The statistical deviation is as likely to be more "+" than "-" or vice versa but I would suggest it rarely to never aligns in the short term with the statistical probability over millions of rolls to the degree of three deviations (99%) of the rolls being within the probable data set.
I understand Gamblers fallacy. I understand when people talk about trends they are using past rolls to try to predict future rolls.
But....in the short term limited number of rolls there is a 32% chance a seven will NOT show 1 in 6 rolls exactly. It could be more or less. Or for the individual trial example there is a 32% chance that a seven will not show 16.67% of the time.
Is there any value in determining if the standard deviation during the limited number of individual data points is greater (more data points within the probable outcome) or less?
I don't know.
How do you determine to bet Pass or Don't Pass? How do you determine if a table is cold/choppy/warm?
Grafsteins suggests the improbable is probable in the short term. He suggests you let the dice determine what to bet (instead of automatically placing the 6/8 say...).
We know that's not probable over millions of rolls but in a limited session of data points it's possible to be outside of the probability curve- in fact there's a 32% chance.
A past roll will not predict the future roll. It's just data in the end and you can create whatever model or rules you want that may or may not work in the short term.
I know that but I'll still watch the table and if there's two or three short rolls I'll change my betting strategy.
