Kentucky Derby 2019

[heavy]

Yes, the Run for the Roses is just a couple of weeks away. On another thread "Raider" asked me for my thoughts on this year's outing. Here was my response. We'd all be interested in hearing everyone else's responses before we head to the windows to place our bets. Here's my take:

I don't follow the ponies as much as I did when I worked in Dallas and had easy access to Lone Star Park's pavilion or could hop over the border to Choctaw Casino in Durant, OK and place my bets. Here in East Texas I got squat, so I don't really bother.

The decision was tough until yesterday's Arkansas Derby, and even after that - who knows. Omaha Beach and Improbable ran one and two and both were among my favorites. My wild cards (not running in Arkansas) are Roadster, who won Santa Anita last week, and even farther in left field, Maximum Security (a horse I wouldn't even have bet on four months ago when it could have been picked up for $16K in a low stakes claimer) who won the Florida Derby last week after going into the race with ZERO points. I mean, seriously? And those are probably the top four horses? Or maybe I just don't understand this whole point system thing.

Hell, I think about a quarter of the horses in this race are trained by the same guy. That can't be right. But I'm going to go out on a limb and pick that $16K claimer - Maximum Security. Why? Assuming the weather's decent and the track is fast - say what you want to about the horse, he has the fastest speed Beyer speed figures of the bunch right now. I'll also mention that his jockey is trending the right direction - from 8th last year to 5th currently this year. And his trainer is currently hot (and not training any other horses in this race).

Other horses that are contenders include:

Tacitus
Game Winner
Long Range Toddy
Vekoma
By My Standards
Code of Honor
Spinoff
War of Will
Cutting Humor
Win Win Win
Tax
Plus Que Parfait
Gray Magician
Master Fencer

The field is far from finalized and clearly not every horse listed above will make the trip to the starting gates. Thoughts?

[Knick111]

Their is no way anybody can handicap this race UNLESS HE HAS THE RACING FORM in front of him THE DAY BEFORE the race.

Take that racing form and look for a Iregular race in his last race and you have the horse with the best chance

in that race.

How to bet this race, after you have picked YOUR horse, You are going to bet the following way

$200 dollars to [ WIN ]...$ 200 EX WHEEL -to [ PLACE ] AND $400 dollars to [ SHOW ].


Good luck guys/gals.
jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

[Raider]

Once I finish breaking out the 1 1/8 races, I will have the racing form in front of me. I will need to check this, but since the points system started in 2013, only three horse in the top four have had odds of greater than 15 to 1 and those races paid real money. Its finding the right longshot to hit in the top four more than who will win for me. The post time fav has won the last six years, that has never happened in the history of the derby. I am going to go both with the trend, and against the trending . I am look at both Code of Honor and War of Will under and over all the horses that are 15:1 or less in an ex an tri and super, at least that is the plan for now, it could change when I get the poop report
i think that everthing you thought you knew about the derby has changed since the points system, and what todd and bob have done for the last three years show a change in how they train. both of them are betting on the 4-6 race growth spurt.

[Raider]

Here you go Jamie

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... ilable_123

Your right though, still need the Pole postionn

[Knick111]

I meant to ask you Raider, do you know what a Iregular race is, and why when you find these horses AND you play them they are long shots, and they WIN or PLACE.?

And why i tell you to play 200 dollars to win AND 200 dollars [ ex ] wheel to place, and 400 dollars to show

on these horses.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

[Raider]

well neither I or the internet know what you mean by an iregular race. As for your bet, reducing the amt to 2 dollars and he is longshot at 15:1 odds, in the kentucky derby, 2 to win, 40 for the wheel ex, and 4 show, well hell, its the derby so 15:1 is not a longshote, so lets go to 2013l golden soul, 34.5:1 he wins, you get 69 + the show, which is going to be less than 19.40 so hell, lets make the show ten, you win 100 bucks- the the ex, you net 60, if he is 3rd, you win 38.80 you lose 2 bucks, but second depending on who comes is first, but in 2013 jackpot,no less than 981.60, 2014 commanding curve, about the same, but the ex will be no less than 340 with the show at 30.80e, so the REAL Bet is on the ex, not a bad way to bet longshots, which I bet on mine bird along with the other 50:1 shots over those under 10:1. With 20 horses, more than one fits in your angle, but if you went deep, to the super, last year the .10 would have been 1,961, the cost of which was around 70 bucksif you wheeled everyone over him. Thats what I love about horseraceing, craps and roulette. this is no different then laying the 4 and 10 for 120 ea, HW for 20 each, and 120 on the inside, two hits and down. if you up the win and the show to cover the super, as long as the one horse you betting comes in the top four, you win big, or you lose little or not at all

So what is an iregular race?

[Knick111]

Greetings Raider ...That's a horse that comes out IN HIS LAST RACE [ FIRST or SECOUND or THIRD ] then falls back to [[ 4 or 5 or 6
or worse THEN comes back and finish the race 2 or 3 or 4 THAT is the horse to bet in the derby.

Those are the horses that i used to play.

They would win or place 75% of all races for me.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

[Raider]

Oh, they bounced. Mohaymen fits that angle,12:1 (4th) 2016, oxbow 2013 (6th), uncle sigh and candy boy 2014, keen ice 2015 ( I Liked him)hmm I didn't file 2017,damn. in 2018 the only one that fits that angle didn't get in, Oh wait, just finished my second cup, there were two last year that were worse than 4th in last race, but they didn't hit the top four either. so this year you will be betting lond range toddy?
Lasy year Justify not only broke the curse, but is the only never raced as a two year old to win the TC, I think this year history will be made again, UAE or Japan, maybe as an ex if either one of them get in to the top four, the payouts will be huge.
I havent been shooting craps for the past ten years, horses and roulette and let me tell, tossing the horses is just as fun and man are my arms BIG. horses, roulette and craps are all the same game to me, if you learn to bet one, you can bet the others.before you learn how to win, learn how not to lose.

[Knick111]

Goodmorning raider,

Can you please send me your pick the day of the K.D, and i will send you my pick.

Raider are you a winning horse player?

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

[Raider]

Good Morning jamie, I can send you the top three that I think will win, and my three long shots. Winning, oh hell no. Last time I check I was down 5k in craps and 5k in horses, but I have only been at for 12 years LOL. its funny, I started in horseracing because of craps. couldn't get to a table, got an online horse racing site. man that brings back some memorys, in 2007 i was working five tracks every day, on my vacation, was down about 1k, and a horse name richard's kid got me whole. I found the same discpline problem I have / had in craps. last year was a good year, not in money, but in discpline. I bet on all the10pt races, and stuck with by budget, 2 or three dollars a race, a dollar ex, one .50 tri and five .10 supers, turned 40 into one 180, didn't win or lose in the 50 and 100pt. In the derby, didn't bet enough on the fav to cover the spread, but get this I made a bet for a friend 2 win, it hit, told him which horses to bet in the preakness, it hit, told him which ones to bet in the belmont, it hit, so one 2 bet, turned into 40. and damn it all I have lost track of how many times the dealers made money of my shooting than I did, one day, I will be at a table when the derby is on.
I look at my losses as the cost of learning, and from what I have learned, not only about the games, its money well spent. I have no doubt that i will recovery, just don't ask me when. Heavy has right, the crap between my ears is something I have to get rid of, and the best way to do is do as the man says, "get in, get it done, and get gone". But thats why I don't put together a real bankroll, which I can afford to do, and will do, when I know I have tamed the crap between my ears

[Tgold]

Hi Raider . Great posts/thoughts. I agree 100% with your following statement:

"...horses, roulette and craps are all the same game to me, if you learn to bet one, you can bet the others.before you learn how to win, learn how not to lose..."


Thx for sharing your knowledge on wagering the ponies. I look forward to seeing more of your posts.

All the best,
Tgold

[Raider]

Tgold, thanks. I am not sure if its wise to take betting advice from someone who loses. LOL you did give me an idea for a book "how to lose 10K in 12 years" LOL. I am nuts, I go after the hardest race to learn how to handicap, and fell in love with the hardest games in the casino. The cool thing is looking at all three games and seeing that they have something in common, and I got that from a school uncle sent me too called battlestaff. It should have be called how to gamble. When the chips are soliders lives you better have a clue. Read any book by John Patrick an everything you can by both Heavy and the Mad proffesor. Those three taught me. 'Plan your bets, bet your plan.
I started a few years ago, naming the bets in craps and roulette after the horse racing bets. it gives me a framework to plan with. If you are doing two of Heavy's don't because you can't , right size bankroll and buy in, and you want to play anyway find ways not to lose first, because the odds of you winning are slim.
The exacta= your betting on the horses that come in first an second. how you pick the horses, well if you don't know how to handicap, it doesn't matter. but you pick three, the fav, a middle range odds horse and the long shot. You have two ways to bet, boxing them (betting all three) cost 6 bucks, but you only have four, so fav on top of the other two, and box only those two. Why? Most ofthe time, if the Fav loses, he comes in third. bet the least to win the most
The craps exacta= the field/ come, or the MS craps check. I make this one after the point. You will not lose all of your money on the next toss. 7 shows, its a push and I play into the push because I have a short bankroll, 11 both sides win, 12,2 you win ten, field number hits, come moves to it, 2 choices, use the field and the field win as odds or let it go naked, no money at risk and ten in action. the odds bet hits your up 40 or 50. no odds, your up 20.
If its a non field, naked, you just want you money back. it hits, your even, decison time, rack it and wait for the next shooter, or add four and place the 6 and 8 for 12

The roulette exacta=red odd/black even the color or odd/ even hits, push, both hit win

these bets are only to give you table time, a 200 buy in on a 10 dollar table is crazy, you have little chance of winning, but you need the table time to learn, make the cost of learning as small as you can, play to the push

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!! By it's nature the Derby is a stampede. BC knows one Irish man that leaves them alone.
BC got away with one in 1985. BC had a tip from his long dead mother. UNHH!!

[Raider]

thats what makes it fun ,

[Raider]

Guys, THIS IS THE YEAR If you are not on an on-line betting site GET ON ONE. All week when I'm working on the derby I am getting a great feeling, never had it before, still have no idea which horses I am going to bet, got two weeks of hard work to do yet, but that feeling like this. The casino sent me some free play for use yesterday and today. Last night, took 18 rolls, and I sucked, but I put two greens in my pocket any way( so I didn't have to buy in in mid roll. I had not made up my mind that I was going after I got off work or not, but went to break at 5am saw the full moon and remember reading somewhere the that the three days after a full moon where the best time to shoot craps, or play craps,

So I went, all girl crew, which for me is a good thing, only two guys on the table, perfect for me and my short bankroll. I was SL2, the guy at SL1 was told me that the table sucked, that him and his partner were down 3k between them. Told him that it was going to change, changed my two green for reds. Just waiting for him to make the point or seven out to buy in. One of the dealers said I could buy in when I put my two bills with my player card. I said now.

Shooter threw two back to back field numbers k so I did my craps EX, hit the 12, so I lost the free play, and then I just worked that bet, and he kept hitting filed number, before I knew it I had more than 200 in chips in the rail, I put two greens in my pocket, and still had over two in the rail. I was getting a hell of a buzz, because the last time I was up when I got the dice I had a good 30 number hand. I went with the shoot on the pass line. I have no idea how much I had in the rail when he SO

Then I got the dice, my game plan was shot to hell so I forgot to place the two way fire bet that I made the last time I was up and got the dice. Went on the pass line only rolled a 5-4 took took odds, and hit the point, realized I had forgot the fire bet, and they would let me make, of course not. threw a yo, tossed the dealer a green and told her to toke it for the fire bet I didn't make, placed the 6 and 8 for 30, and of course the seven showed, did a quick check of the rail, toked the dealers 10% of what I was going to walk away with, 480, so it was 40 toke. Was walking on air, and still buzzes.

So what does this have to do with the derby? Its the same feeling I have been having when I have been working the derby in my car. Ya ya I know, could just be lady luck playing with me, we all know how she is.

So here is the deal, shop around for a site, I have been on three, NYRD will give you a free bet, that means the will pay you what every you bet, up two hundred, but to get you money back, you have to bet it, like free slot play. Last year TVG was giving great odds on justify, up two 25 and I think you had to play that. The site that I am on, might give you 10% back. That three sites, so you know I am not telling you which one to go to, because I don't care. Shop, read the terms.

Why am I doing this, when I was making bets for my friend last year, my focus was different, I wanted him to win, so he could enjoy the race. I didn't want him to lose money, I wanted him to watch the race, and enjoy it. Last year he won the triple crown, just like I did in 2011. I will do the same things this year for him, and those of you. This year, I think I should make the same bets that I make for him, have him get on a site because I don't want to pay the taxes on his win, and I don't want him to give me money if we lose.

HEY Jamie, I will do a $50 spread, want to give it a shot, maybe we can get some of these craps players/shooter to become horse plays, both of them are dying games

50 to 485, what is that, a 1000% over buy in, I am higher than a kit, its about the %, not the decimal. My gambling year starts between the Preakness and the Belmont, last years will go into next years coin jar, funny damn way to fund your gambling, but it seems to be working, now if I just learn not to be stupid, anyone know any good books on how not to be stupid????

[Raider]

Projected ML ODDS

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... g_line_123#

got lucky this morning, have one free play left, then I am going to call it a year, try and get my focus back. Nevery tried the derby and casino at the same time, but I have been to the casnio three times in one week, the plan was once a month. This is a sign, that I am about to go tilt. the bankroll on the triple crown is no more than $150 per race, if I can afford it, 50 bucks if I can't, this year I can. the battle between my ears is on.

[Knick111]

Good morning raider,

Do you have the odds on these HORSES, and do you have the p.p also.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

[Raider]

Good Morning jime
Use the two links I posted, but we both know that with out the Pole Postions, all it does is give you an Idea about the horses, can see the race until you know who is where. now that I think about, let me check the weather

[SteveO]

Greetings Raider ...That's a horse that comes out IN HIS LAST RACE [ FIRST or SECOUND or THIRD ] then falls back to [[ 4 or 5 or 6
or worse THEN comes back and finish the race 2 or 3 or 4 THAT is the horse to bet in the derby.

Those are the horses that i used to play.

They would win or place 75% of all races for me.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

So you're looking at a horse who in the last race:
1. Was first, second or third at the 1st call
2. Falls back to fourth, fifth or sixth at the 2nd or 3rd call
3. Finishes the race second, third of fourth
4. All distances, all surfaces, all conditions

Is the above correct?

[Moe Bettor]

Jaime is obviously talking about a horse showing the ability to come back. But I don't bet horses that fall back during a race. The horse can remain in position, possibly being held in reserve by the jockey, but has to make a
move as he says. Also you have to take into account the run time of the race in which this happened. Was it a slow time over all? Was there an increase in jockey weight?. I believe there are a few apps now on the market that do all this for you. You just plug in the stuff and it gives you the best of the best. Even so, I was an exacta player mainly and actually came in second in a handicapping contest at Sports Haven in Connecticut at one time.