Is there really such a thing as a "lucky streak?"

[mainframe]

And it is said you never know when you are in one. If you use regression and are in the money quickly after the
first couple of throws, you are definitely ready to catch one both money wise and psychologically. After all, if you are even or ahead when even a short roll is going on, you don't lose anything. I just use the Heavy press system and pull money. Or if I'm feeling more conservative, same bet, same bet. Either way you make bucks, right?

Well, you may be aware that a "streak" is occurring simply by recalling the past X dice results, but you truyly never know when the streak will end. It really can only be called a "streak" once the streak ends (in hindsight). If for example, you place the 6 for 12 and the next three rolls happen to be a six, you may state in that moment, there appears to be a "streak" of sixes being rolled. You may adjust your bets accordingly (for example, full press of the place bet for the number 6. But, the very next roll may not be a six...or worst, the very next roll may be a seven. Only after the "pattern" of results ends can you look back and say "wow, that was a streak of three sixes".

As far as "initial steep regression" strategies go, its as good as any other betting strategy, when the results favor the bets you happen to have on the layout. Initial steep regressions can be a wonderful thing except when you have a PSO, or a very short roll (perhaps 2 or 3 numbers followed by a seven).
In fact, if your initial steep regression is based on one or more large place numbers that you intend to steeply regress after a hit, a long roll of "outside numbers such as 2,3,11,12", followed by a seven would be just a bad as a PSO outcome.

Under the right circumstances, any betting strategy can be a "winner" or a loser". Heck, say with a bank roll of $150, I plan on consistently booking a "$5 boxcars" prop for the next 30 rolls of the dice. As long as the "12" is rolled once in that series of 30 prop bets, I will have at least "broken even". If a twelve happens to be rolled a few times early on in my planned strategy of "30 X $5 12 prop bet", I can opt to stop booking that bet, or even ride out a total of 30 trials because at this point, I am going to be ahead if I only book that single bet a total of 30 times.
Now mathematically, in terms of both probability, and house edge, the prop bet 12 is among the worst bets on the layout (true odds would being paying players 36 to 1, but house only paying 30 to 1 on a win), with a HE of 16.67%

[Moe Bettor]

I have always assumed ISR involves a lot more money than I put out. But then again..to somebody that buys in for $150, a $30 6 and 8 is a lot of money. I use at most a $30 6 and 8 regressing to $12 6 and 8 with a $500 buy in. I'm never in the hole that much to start. And I have my rules too regarding when I start my regression. Let's say we use your example. You place the 6 for 12 and say we're on a $5 table. So you get a hit and that's $14. You regress to a $6 6 and 8. You're ahead $2, right? Next roll is a 6. You press your 6 up to $12 and keep a buck. Next roll..another 5. You get $14. You jack your 8 up..or take the money. This is what I'm talking about. Have zero comments about the absurdity of chasing boxcars with $5 bets for 30 rolls. I guess just commented on it.

[mainframe]

I agree “chasing boxcars at $5 a roll for 30 rolls” is not a particularly good betting strategy. i was just pointing out that if the dice happen to cooperate it can be a winning strategy however unlikely.
sound like your suggesting and/or implementing some kind of regeession follwed by conditional progression using 6 and 8 place bets. that can work and can work well if the dice cooperate. am i correct at stating most dice influencers are really attempting “seven avoidance” or attempting to roll *more* sevens, and that attempting controlled tosses for other more specific results is very difficult indeed and very “advanced”?

[Moe Bettor]

IMO more than seven avoidance, DI shooters are going for their numbers. Which could be a seven. After long practice you've come to your favorite set(s) and throw so if you're not hitting familiar numbers you can curtail yr bets. Some shooters I've played with on this forum are capable of hitting, at times, what they are trying for. A world bet becomes a hot parlay. Hardways becomes anything but a sucker bet. It happens. I've been there.

[mssthis1]

Are winning streaks real? If so, how and why does this benefit gamblers?

Recently Irish has argued that there's no such thing as an exploitable streak in gambling. A recent scientific article sent to me by a forum member seems to suggest the opposite. What are your thoughts? Is there such a thing as a "lucky" streak at craps? If so, how can you capitalize on it?

Winning streaks are real. They can possibly benefit a gambler if they are smart enough to realize it's a winning streak and shut down the over betting at the first sniff of the streak ending. Archie Karas is an example of someone who overplayed a winning streak to his determent.

The only way to exploit a winning streak is to identify it. That is impossible since you have no knowledge of when it is going to end. I feel winning streaks are a determent to some craps players because they mistakenly call positive variance skill and end up over betting their bankroll. Refer back to Archie Karas. If he had quit after losing back half of what he'd won he would have still been up 8 mil or so.

Long rolls or positive sessions in craps is an excellent example. If you have several good sessions in a row should you increase your bet amounts expecting it to continue or should you stay the course and bet within your bankroll?

[mainframe]

Winning streaks are real. They can possibly benefit a gambler if they are smart enough to realize it's a winning streak and shut down the over betting at the first sniff of the streak ending. Archie Karas is an example of someone who overplayed a winning streak to his determent.

The only way to exploit a winning streak is to identify it. That is impossible since you have no knowledge of when it is going to end. I feel winning streaks are a determent to some craps players because they mistakenly call positive variance skill and end up over betting their bankroll. Refer back to Archie Karas. If he had quit after losing back half of what he'd won he would have still been up 8 mil or so.

Long rolls or positive sessions in craps is an excellent example. If you have several good sessions in a row should you increase your bet amounts expecting it to continue or should you stay the course and bet within your bankroll?

I don't believe that several distinct "winning" gambling sessions at a Craps table are indicative of future results anymore that past stock market performance is an indicator of future performance. You hear that disclaimer on financial investment instruments all the time on their prospectus "Past market results are not indicative of future investment performance".

If you are betting on complete "randies" and you have several distinct winning sessions, you may completely coincidentally be on a "winning session streak" that may end the very next time you step up to a table.

The one exception to my pronouncement would be true dice influence. That is, if someone is truly skewing the dice toss results away from purely mathematically random, then past winning sessions can be a slight predictor of future session results, assuming future play conditions and betting strategies remain consistent. The same applies for counting cards in Black Jack. If you play BJ at a certain table, with certain rules in place and can gain a positive edge (positive EV), you can predict that under the same play conditions, stress level, level of sleep, level of distraction, dealer, etc you will get similar results.

[memo]

All my streaks end toooo soon.

Is that a trend? I bet I’m not the only one suffering from streak shortage?

N8

N8
A ladyfriend once told me I had a short streak...
Is that what you are talking about? If so, then count me in.

Memo

[heavy]

Under those circumstances I'd take a short streak over no streak any day.

[mainframe]

TMAINFRAME: The one exception to my pronouncement would be true dice influence. That is, if someone is truly skewing the dice toss results away from purely mathematically random, then past winning sessions can be a slight predictor of future session results, assuming future play conditions and betting strategies remain consistent.

IRISH:True, but the edge is so slim as to be meaningless hand to hand and session to session. Back to the coin flip. If heads had a 52% chance of appearing and tails had a 48% chance, you would still experience losing "streaks" if you wagered on heads.

So Irish, your last statement quoted above is worth analyzing and discussing further.

Q1. If your pronouncement that dice influencing gives such a slight positive edge as to be meaningless in the short term, does that mean that it is not "worth" the time and energy to develop a controlled toss?

Q2. Does that "very slight edge ONLY" also apply to card-counting algorithms in Blackjack? Is it "worth it" to learn, practice, and perfect card counting at Blackjack if you only get a slight edge which is next to meaningless hand-to-hand and session to session?

Q3. I heard it say that perfect card counting sans mistakes in Blackjack can only help you gain a 0.5% - 1% advantage over the house. Doesn't that mean, as per law of large numbers, that if you play a WHOLE LOT of hands of blackjack with perfect card counting, you should be experience a slight profit in your BJ gambling over time?

I ask Q3 because there are Casino bets where the House edge is a mere 1%....baccarat betting on the banker, Craps Passline with max odds, etc.
Casinos stand to win in the long run even with these low house edge bets. If a casino could not profit from a particular wager in the long term, they wouldn't offer it. To take it a step further casinos do not typially offer ZERO EV games either. A Zero EV bet would be a field bet that pays triple on both 2 and 12.

A question on craps history. Wasn't it true that in the 40s and 50s, DP wagers would win on a 2, 3, or 12 (no 'push on 12)? What did that mean for EV?

[heavy]

Let me add that one of the better "low roller" card counters I've known through the years- and this guy was VERY good - played $10 games and started with $10 bets and tried to range them as high as he could push them. When he got up around $50 the suits came out. If he ever got $100 on the layout the dealer shuffled up. He'd play 18 hours a day and average . . . are you ready for this? $9.00 an hour. And this guy was GOOD. I'd rather flip burgers for $15 an hour. I'd work 60% fewer hours, get a comped lunch everyday and get paid time off after six months.

[DanF]

There is only 1 way of playing that will get you to profit the streaks. It has been said there is no house money myth...but if your bets don’t pay for themselves, how do you expect to profit?

Start low, get your bets paid, press up and COLLECT more then you put in. There’s no magic plan, just simple math.

Up a unit, same bet, powerpress, collect twice. You are at 5 hits already. 12-18-18-42-42-42. You just made 127$ from 12$.

[DanF]

Your math is incorrect. Run that philosophy through a few thousand decisions and tell me how it works out. How likely is it you'll get 5 hits on a $12 6? How likely is it you'll get two before a seven? One? While philosophically I agree that if you're trying to be ahead of the random game, you have to make hay when variance is smiling on you, it also means that it's more likely you'll not be profitable. Especially with several wagers in play.

Here’s a few thousand decision:

The point isn’t to get to 5 hits, it’s to get to two.

First hit -4$, second +15$

[DanF]

First I am here cuz I have kids and can’t pass all my days in casino.

Second, this has been a two year test. And I don’t have a simulator other then this.

Third, I’ve been trying to scale it up, it might get up on the long run but so far it’s in it’s infancy.

Fourth, as you tried all the bad systems out there, might as well test this one by yourself and tell me how much bullshit I am..

[Moe Bettor]

I don't know what it is about regression that brings out the stuff about $220 across..insufficient bankroll..well yeah! How about $18 6 and 8, one hit and regress to $12 6 and 8 and yr only in the hole 3 bucks! If you buy in for a couple of grand..$220 across is fine and regress. If you buy in as I do for less..you act accordingly. I suggest you read Irish's statement somewhere in the archives about regression v.s. pressing play and where you lose less, win less, etc. I just use regression as a set up for a possible hot hand. I have bets working that are pretty much paid for fast. Not after 8 rolls, not after six rolls. I'm in there usually at 4 rolls or less. I'll back my play against anybody's.

[mainframe]

And if you ever want to counter Irish's "hard line" questions asking you to mathematically prove out the probabilities and expected values of your personal betting and money management strategies, you can always just invoke "wishful thinking".

Sometimes wishful thinking happens to work out in the short term (due to variance).

There is maybe a mathematical axiom or law that can be invoked here that may be able to but this whole thing to bed once and for all:

The expected value for any betting strategy can be calculated (is "derived from") from the expected values of each individual wager on each individual event. I'd like someone to enlighten me with an actual example along with the accompanying math. For example "What is the combined EV on resolution of the following combo of bets:Place 6, Place 8, and passline with no odds?".

The key property here is "negative EV". If you have a betting strategy that relies on a combination of individual wages on an independent trial event, and each constituent wager has a negative EV, the combined EV will ALSO be negative.

So regardless of betting strategy, if all the wagers you make inherently have a negative EV, your betting strategy will also have negative EV.
You can truthfully claim "My betting strategy has won me money in the times I have implemented it". And maybe your telling the truth...but the reason your betting strategy has resulted in a "net win" is that you have been LUCKY thus far. If you use a simulator such as WinCraps, and you include a very large sample size, you will see that the net result should be a loss.

[mainframe]

And if you ever want to counter Irish's "hard line" questions asking you to mathematically prove out the probabilities and expected values of your personal betting and money management strategies, you can always just invoke "wishful thinking".

Sometimes wishful thinking happens to work out in the short term (due to variance).

There is maybe a mathematical axiom or law that can be invoked here that may be able to but this whole thing to bed once and for all:

The expected value for any betting strategy can be calculated (is "derived from") from the expected values of each individual wager on each individual event. I'd like someone to enlighten me for with an actual example with the accompanying math. For example "What is the combined EV on resolution of the following combo of bets:Place 6, Place 8, and passline with no odds?".

The key property here is "negative EV". If you have a betting strategy that relies on a combination of individual wagers on an independent trial even, and each constituent wager has a negative EV, the combined EV will ALSO be negative.

So regardless of betting strategy, if all the wagers you make inherently have a negative EV, your betting strategy will also have negative EV.
You can truthfully claim "My betting strategy has won me money in the times I have implemented it". And maybe your telling the truth...but the reason your betting strategy has resulted in a "net win" is that you have been LUCKY thus far. If you use a simulator such as WinCraps, and you include a very large sample size, you will see that the net result should be a loss.

[DanF]

EV of a strategy has to be calculated in 3 ways.

Short run

Average run

Long run.

To win in any game, you need to lose the least on the long run, be as even as possible on average and have small losses and big wins on short run.

This way, if you have any tallent in said dice control, you could be net positive most times.

[DanF]

Where the hell have you seen 21h when I said 2 years.

Hey I paid myself two trips on winnings last year...don’t always win like everyone else.

It’s not perfect and I don’t use only this strategy in my book to win. I had a long losing streak this year too, it had me return to this strategy and I’m starting to win again.

Hell I could bullshit you all day, but if you’re smart you’ll have to run your own tests. And btw you don’t have to play 12$ 6&8 all the time, it would be plain stupid not to bet more when things are going your way. I have starting moves from 90...120,240,900,1200 planned in my pocket, just waiting to pull the trigger when I grow my roll up again...that’s if I stop spending the profits lol.

[220Inside]

I guess since Heavy asked me to mind the fort while he's in Vegas for the next seminar, I should chime in here to remind you guys to tone it down just a bit. There are Facebook groups and other message boards where that name calling and related BS is welcome and even encouraged, but not here.

If you guys want to bitch slap each other, take it somewhere else.

[London Shooter]

Simple maths will never show you can beat a random game full of negative EV bet, no matter how you bet, period. It just cannot happen unless you have some kind of edge or the game is not random.

I fully back up all Irish/Mainframe and others have said on this subject.