The All, Small or Tall Bet

[slowdriver]

I like to play the ATS usually for me it's $3 or $5 in the middle "all or nothing" maybe next trip in March for the Biloxi beach party i wont play much ATS on the first day of play, it seems the bigger hands come after a couple days of play.

[SammyNit]

Yes I was on the table with you, and it was insane that it took that long to get around. But we made it worth it. I hit the all once and the small/y’all each a couple of times. Always got hung up on the 11 it seemed lol. We had some great rolls and it was good to meet you. Hope to see you around another table one day, and enjoy your 3 weeks remaining on the Horizon!

Hey Erik, I am still on the Carnival Horizon and waiting 3 to 3 1/2 hours to shoot the Dice! But yesterday, I made 7 Points and hit the All Small First, then rolled a 5 again, and then on my next roll hit the All Tall & Make’m All by hitting Midnight! Bet it $2, $1, $2 for a $270 Win (30-1, $150-1, 30-1). Walked away UP $1,000 plus my $300 buyin. You were missed at the table....

Carnival Horizon

14907F00-8167-431F-9C89-26312E9197D9.jpeg (87.65 KiB) Viewed 101080 times

[220Inside]

Congrats on the ATS hit!

Interesting layout of the ATS on this table. The stick is responsible for marking the numbers rather than the two dealers or the box.

[r_ventura_23]

Nice Hit Sammy.

[Big O]

Congrats, the ATS hits makes for a good session, sometimes saves a whole trip

[220Inside]

Congrats, the ATS hits makes for a good session, sometimes saves a whole trip

Sometimes. In a lot of cases however, it's a big bankroll drain and should be used primarily on known shooters.

[SammyNit]

Once Heavy & the Gang on the Oasis of the Seas each find their Sweet Spot, I would be $5 Accross on ALL of them!

[220Inside]

No bonus bets on the Oasis tables.

[DarthNater]

OK, here's my tilt toward objective journalism......

Vegas, Super Bowl Weekend, my favorite off strip property....

As I said above, I'll make an effort to chronicle my success or lack there of for this year when I bet the Fire or ATS.

Fire: eight $1 bets: nothing. Ninth $1 on the randie tossing before me - he hits 5th point for $250, less the $25 toke I toked him. Three more tries = -$3.
Fire Net 2019: -$12 +$250 - $25 ----> + $213 ***plus I got a hit on my $90 8

Two days later.....
ATS: 5 @ $3 - nothing. Next $3 - the Small +$30. 2 more @ $3: nothing.
ATS Net 2019: -$18 +$30 - $6 ------> +$6

I also played a Repeater table, but did not bet it, D.N8r

[Americraps]

Does anyone use a negative progression on the ATS?

[Tgold]

Hi Americraps.
Hope all is well in Chicago land. I attended a conference there awhile back. I enjoyed a Bulls game/couple nice pizza places.

re:ATS
I did an approx 18mo study re:ATS.
My research suggested that either side(S orT) can be profitable(meaning Pos net), yet no two of the three will consistently stay in positive-return territory.
The approach I concluded was optimal and utilized post study was to wager one side only @ 1Unit for 35 consecutive times/ if it didn't hit we would raise to 2U til it hit or the payout would no longer produce a net win >1u. Then raise to 3.5U continuously with same parameters as before. Only one series did I get near the upper end of 3.5U level. My neg pro wager schedule was to do 1,2,3.5,7,10 if needed.
My method to select the side was to track the 2-3 vs 11-12 on all shooters and select the side that had received the most total hits on their respective two numbers so far in that session.

Some of the things that I recall from this study was:

a) The wins occurred most often between attempt 17-27th.

b) The wins seemed to occur in clumps. For example I might go 25 attempts without getting close and would get a win and then see another one or two within next few shooters, then another gap til the next winner or clump of winners.

I chose to abandon the ATS because frequently on my hand I may only have $1 on it and maybe have a Plc Bet pressed from say 35 to 80, and because my teammates were loaded up on the ATS , I would switch sets to maybe X6 to shoot for the one last extreme# and not only would I miss the extreme but also never hit my# again. All for just a potential few dollars (net). Plus I found myself focused on the bonus wager instead of other more profitable/likely wagers.

IMO several other wagers available to us that will provide a larger ROI with less stress. For example just Parlay a no odds PL(1-2-1) @ $12 gives us the same $35 to rack.
I might add I play with a Dier that plays ATS as his primary wager/ uses two box #s to fuel it so he can wager table max every time he has the dice. He is most certainly net pos, though he is a very fine shooter and would in all likelihood be net pos on most any one or two wager systems.

All the best,
Tgold

[DarthNater]

Tgold,
Thanks for all the detailed study. So, going in, do you bet the T or S the most? Or do you bet the T & S higher and the All a bit less? Just trying to understand your approach for your $$$ not the others at the table, N8

[London Shooter]

When I used to bet ATS I'd often just do one side, namely the small - my logic being it has two craps numbers and therefore I felt like it gave me more back for a potential loss on passline than the Tall. Conversely, I get paid on PL for a yo anyway so decided the side with 2/3 was a better way to go compared to the side containing the 11/12

[Tgold]

Hi DarthNater

Your Q: "...So, going in, do you bet the T or S the most? …"
The Tall was my preference at the beginning on my shooting. Though after just a few shooters my tracking would start to show one side in the lead in my side-comparison charts: 2/3 vs 11/12.
If I just walked up to the table and I was the next shooter my decision was made by which side had wagers pressed the highest. Plus I would ask a current player: Has anyone hit the ATS today? If the response was something like: Yes, we hit the Small about 1/2 hour ago, and I could see the current hand showed the Low# pressed up higher, then without any other intel I would choose to start on the S.

I conducted the initial study doing the same $ on each wager ATS. For example 1u-1-1, = $2-$2-$2...etc was considered the baseU for each bonus wager. Most often I would begin a 3-day trip at $2 each.
My conclusion was that one of the three could be profitable. Though very very difficult for two of three to stay pos for very long. Obviously the volatility from the ALL could instantly make a whole session turn from neg-to-pos. So some merit for the ALL.

So for example I typically started a 3-day trip with $2 say on the Tall, and would do this for up to 35 attempts til it hit or reached the 35 misses. Then I raise U to 2.0U($4) til it hit or reached a number of misses and that payout would not exceed >=1U, then raise to 3.5U($7)..etc with same guidelines as above. The longest I went on a single SIDE without a win was around 61attempts or so (if I recall correctly as I only had one or two more wagers at 3.5u til my series would have required a raise to the 7U level.
For example If I was only wagering the ALL I would have started with 1U for 175 attempts, then raised to 2U...etc. The ALLonly could be profitable in my opinion, though very high variance. For example, once I was wagering mostly on myself/three other DIers and we played 3days(3-4 major session per day) without seeing one single ALL. On another trip we once hit the ALL on 3 of 5 consecutive shooters.


DN Q: "...Or do you bet the T & S higher and the All a bit less?.."

I bet the same during the study. For example $2-2-2.
I perceive many players will for example put $2 each on the S/T and when one side hits at say toss35 and we receive the $70, its easy to forget that we just lost $70 on the other side within this series.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hi LondonShooter:
Your comment above:
"When I used to bet ATS I'd often just do one side, namely the small - my logic being it has two craps numbers and therefore I felt like it gave me more back for a potential loss on passline than the Tall. Conversely, I get paid on PL for a yo anyway so decided the side with 2/3 was a better way to go compared to the side containing the 11/12".

That's interesting logic. I like it. I havnt really considered from that viewpoint.

LS, Do you typically reload on comeout 7s?

I typically go for T with a X6 set, with Plc 9/ ,F, sometimes H8 because my largest edge with that set is 12,9,H8. I frequently place two high numbers as I prefer to shoot for one side (hi or low) with a goal of tagging three consec F(parlayed/dn), all the while going for the T at the same time. If Im fortunate I will also set the point on a high#.

Thx for comments everyone.


All the best,
Tgold

[DarthNater]

I typically go for T with a X6 set, with Plc 9/ ,F, sometimes H8 because my largest edge with that set is 12,9,H8. I frequently place two high numbers as I prefer to shoot for one side (hi or low) with a goal of tagging three consec F(parlayed/dn), all the while going for the T at the same time. If Im fortunate I will also set the point on a high#.

I have not yet tried the progression on the ATS. I've been lone wolfing a lot lately and testing new tables with my straight out shot. I will war game the three field parlay as the V-2 is pumping them out. Do you field bet each roll and press if it doesn't hit or are you doing "see a field, bet the field"?

My GWAG has been pumping out a lot of Yo's recently, but has gone dry on 2/12, DN8R

[Tgold]

Hi DarthNater

DN Q: Do you field bet each roll and press if it doesn't hit or are you doing "see a field, bet the field"?

I would start the above wagering approach (e.g., F,9,& T) with x6 from the beginning of session(on my shot only) and give it a couple tries. I seldom abandon it unless its raining inside numbers for everyone. After tracking table >1circuit I like to see the RR et al Diers tossing F >expectation (>16-to-20) as Im very confident I can produce the 2/12 an extra hit or two during a normal session (30-90mins). I like the F(3 par or par+ and dn) because even a RR is highly probable to have a F go 3iar"or more" within any 36 roll sequence.

I actually like the F-only wager with (3 par or par+) as a solo wager. Though I typically will place the 9 OR buy the 12 at the same amount. I wish I could find a local crapless table that also paid 3x on F. I would then just buy the 12 and likely omit the 9. I'm a firm believer in lowering our number of targets to two or max of three total wagers is optimum play. IMO the fewer targets keep us close to even til that first sway of pos variance comes our way. We can always go up/out if that huge hand shows.

Thx for comments


All the best,
Tgold

[Tgold]

DarthNater:

".. I will war game the three field parlay as the V-2 is pumping them out..."

"...My GWAG has been pumping out a lot of Yo's recently, but has gone dry on 2/12,.."

My only reservation with using the x6 on the wager I indicated above(F,9, and T) is that it is great for the high numbers, yet deficient on the 10. I commonly need that for my Tall win, and debate switching to the V-2 or 6-4/4-6 to tag the 10. Typically I just stay with the x6 as by that stage Ive been fortunate enough to avoid the 7 for at least 10-12 tosses.


All the best,
Tgold

[London Shooter]

Tgold - I used to reload once, maybe trice on early come out 7s on ATS. If later in hand, say with half the numbers covered I would feel the roll is getting a bit long in the tooth and not bother on subsequent co 7s.

The discussion with me is a moot point however. Since they tripled the house edge with the lower payouts I don't play apart from sometimes my own throw if I'm feeling good. Essentially it's a huge bankroll drain if you aren't careful and realistically nobody is beating a 20% house edge if they keep playing this sucker.

Anecdotally, many will stil say they are but I supect a large dose of confirmation bias and also memory loss off how many chips this bet eats via reloads

[Tgold]

Hi LondonShooter

Thx for comment/I agree with your statements below"

"Essentially it's a huge bankroll drain if you aren't careful and realistically nobody is beating a 20% house edge if they keep playing this sucker."

"Anecdotally, many will stil say they are but I supect a large dose of confirmation bias and also memory loss off how many chips this bet eats via reloads"

*I encourage everyone to track every single bonus wager, dealer toke, commish on buy bets(especially if you have to pay upfront), $1 tips to waitress for a .25c bottle of h2o, ...etc.

In my above study I discovered I was "on avg" spending $40+ dollars per session (60-90mins sess) on addendum expenses(mostly bonus wagers). This was on a BI of $1000 or $700, more often the latter. So basically my DI skill was being forced to overcome approx. 7%($47/700) just to get even. The bonus wagers were by far the largest drain. I decided to omit all of these BI-draining expenses except the toke to dealers(typically only $1 on PL/$1 to hot box number(s) IF the hand progressed/ I was net+ for session. I don't order h20,coffee,...etc at table. This may seem like micro managing, however, this 7% improvement on my ROI is huge(especially if we compound this across many sessions).
If I could micro manage my investment broker and lower his fees 7% I most certainly would.

Now I seldom do a bonus wager and will nearly always avoid a casino that charges commish upfront. The veryvery few times I do a bonus wager it is only a min wager on myself /on one side of ats/no fires.


Thx for comments everyone


All the best,
Tgold

[DarthNater]

DN Q: Do you field bet each roll and press if it doesn't hit or are you doing "see a field, bet the field"?

I would start the above wagering approach (e.g., F,9,& T) with x6 from the beginning of session(on my shot only) and give it a couple tries. I seldom abandon it unless its raining inside numbers for everyone. After tracking table >1circuit I like to see the RR et al Diers tossing F >expectation (>16-to-20) as Im very confident I can produce the 2/12 an extra hit or two during a normal session (30-90mins). I like the F(3 par or par+ and dn) because even a RR is highly probable to have a F go 3iar"or more" within any 36 roll sequence.

I actually like the F-only wager with (3 par or par+) as a solo wager. Though I typically will place the 9 OR buy the 12 at the same amount. I wish I could find a local crapless table that also paid 3x on F. I would then just buy the 12 and likely omit the 9. I'm a firm believer in lowering our number of targets to two or max of three total wagers is optimum play. IMO the fewer targets keep us close to even til that first sway of pos variance comes our way. We can always go up/out if that huge hand shows.

Just for fun, I looked at my last two book building sessions from straight out. Please note that when I practice I do it as simulated play as I track come-outs in one column and point sets in the next column - this gives me 36 come-out tosses and 72 point tosses per session.

For the first session of 72 point tosses, I had 4 fields in-a-row three times, plus 3 fields in-a-row once.
For the second session of 72 point tosses, I had 4 fields in-a-row once, plus 3 fields in-a-row three times.
In most cases the streak was broken by a 6 or 8, or when I made a point or sevened out.

I then looked at the "see a field bet a field" opportunities:
For the first session I had 13 fields back to back, with 11 solos.
For the second session I had 14 fields back to back, with 6 solos.
Some of the solos were due to seven outs.

All point sessions were with the V-2 mutant which has 8 fields on axis. Later this week I'll feed these into BT and transpose it into x6 with 8 fields on axis including the 2 & 12.

Regardless though I don't use an X6 for points setting. I use it for GWAG, so looking at the 36 come-out tosses - the first session of 36 had 12 fields, eight 7s, and no Hi/lo's. the second X6 session of 36 also had 12 fields, 11 sevens, and 3 Hi/lo's. Once I have all my sessions done and built my book of 756, only then do I plan to look at how to transpose all these, so naturally I expect my mileage to vary.

This too small sample size does suggest that I should stay away from the field progression albeit for these current sets straight out, DN8R