The All, Small or Tall Bet

[Tgold]

Hi DarthNater
I like how you track your practice/analyze the data.
It will be interesting to see the final data.

?Once you enter a book into bonetracker and adjust your dice set --How often do you reassess the BT info and adjust your set? or do you stay with a set until it quits performing above expectation?


Thx

All the best
Tgold

[DarthNater]

Hi DarthNater
I like how you track your practice/analyze the data.
It will be interesting to see the final data.

Once you enter a book into bonetracker and adjust your dice set --How often do you reassess the BT info and adjust your set? or do you stay with a set until it quits performing above expectation?

Thx
All the best
Tgold

Tgold,
I have 3 more sessions to go to complete the book. I will likely publish some set transposition analytics once I sift thru all the information. My process to date has always been to look for the set(s) that give me advantage(s) in specific circumstances; then go thru some practice sessions with the new sets as I can always transpose them for continuity validation. This time is a bit different since this is my first time booking from straight out, so I expect an iterative process.

I'm not much in to switching sets, for me, when its not working - it's the tosser, not the set. Yeah sure there's a bunch of crappy tables out there, but I don't read too much into tables I don't know well. But on a known layout I diagnose in real time. For example when I use my V-3 mutant and get a hard ten or hard four, I know its because my left die went off axis - so as much as I might like those numbers - seeing that usually means my grip is off - and I focus on that the next toss. Now I will occasionally swap between the V-2 & the V-3 sets, as I think my V-2 works better on microfibre. That's a recon thing, that I like to sort thru when I'm learning a new table

DN8R

[Riggs]

Do any of you bet the ATS when it's the 34-175-34 and not bet it at 30-150-30?

[DanF]

DarthNater:

".. I will war game the three field parlay as the V-2 is pumping them out..."

"...My GWAG has been pumping out a lot of Yo's recently, but has gone dry on 2/12,.."

My only reservation with using the x6 on the wager I indicated above(F,9, and T) is that it is great for the high numbers, yet deficient on the 10. I commonly need that for my Tall win, and debate switching to the V-2 or 6-4/4-6 to tag the 10. Typically I just stay with the x6 as by that stage Ive been fortunate enough to avoid the 7 for at least 10-12 tosses.


All the best,
Tgold

IMHO if you're a true DI, staying on the same set to hit the bonus bet you are hurting yourself. You typically will nail 3-4 numbers over and over. So if you want to hunt the bonus bet you better switch sets...anyway it shouldn't show more sevens if you switch sets or rotate it. It should just show 1-2 new numbers.

Now if you feel you'd like to stick to your set. Don't bet the bonus. When I want to hunt the bonus now I switch from x6, 2v, 3v every roll. Mostly will all show more 6-8 and hit a specific number. When I get one side of the bonus running I focus a specific number and stop switching set.

[DarthNater]

IMHO if you're a true DI, staying on the same set to hit the bonus bet you are hurting yourself. You typically will nail 3-4 numbers over and over. So if you want to hunt the bonus bet you better switch sets...anyway it shouldn't show more sevens if you switch sets or rotate it. It should just show 1-2 new numbers.

Now if you feel you'd like to stick to your set. Don't bet the bonus. When I want to hunt the bonus now I switch from x6, 2v, 3v every roll. Mostly will all show more 6-8 and hit a specific number. When I get one side of the bonus running I focus a specific number and stop switching set.

DanF,
I'm coming around to that perspective. It's taken me awhile to get there, though playing more at the same few places has helped me to see the value in that thinking. I'm still working out some of the stuff between my ears when it comes to switching sets in mid-roll. Playing nearly everyday this past two weeks has helped me in the that and I expect that once I do finish my straight out book things will accelerate more. With those analytics, I'm expecting to evolve to more of a sniper (see my note above about the $900 Bellagio toss); then I should have a more advanced plan. It's all part of the journey.

BTW what's your betting strategy on the bonus and how do you approach things - beginning with the come-out - then what are your triggers for full on sniper mode?

Thanks, D.N8R

[Big O]

When I want to hunt the bonus now I switch from x6, 2v, 3v every roll.

i think to do this without hurting your concentration or "mogo", you have to practice it on a regular basis so it becomes a confident attacking type move, not a hope or desperation move to bring the last numbers of an ATS. You need to be able to do it as fluidly as if you didnt change anything. I play it both ways. The length of the hand comes into play. What numbers i am rolling and what bets are pressed up to and my general state of mind at the table.

Sometimes i switch on the comeout as DarthNader suggested. Other times switch for just one or two rolls and switch back. I have won and lost switching and staying with one set. I am less likely to change on a busy table with lots of distractions going on.

If i start to toss the exact same number (not just value but same number on each die) and i know that if i change one die and roll the same number again it will bring the number i need i will do it.

I probably change permutations of the set i am using more than i change sets. I do agree if you are going to bet the ATS, especially on $5 minimums you need to be trying to hit it. Otherwise put it out of your mind and concentrate on your key numbers.

[Tgold]

Good comments DanF,BigO, DarthN et al.

The dilemma of "do I switch sets to hit the ATS" is obviously ex post facto. i.e, If we are debating at that stage we have already placed the bonus wager. The main question at that stage is "how much do I have on this particular bonus wager?" relative to ones wager size on the box#s.

Personally the $2-5 bonus wager is such a small % of my box# AND significantly less probable. So I am more likely to base my decision on (NOT my $2 wager on S or T and its low probability/high HE).

That brings us to my next thought: What amount on the the A,T,or S warrants a change of dice sets to theoretically have a higher probability of winning the bonus wager that may or may not produce a larger win vs box#, and most importantly a higher ROI.

Points To Ponder:

I don't play the following way, however, I cross paths every three weeks with a fellow dier that makes the ATS his primary wager. He uses two box#s to fuel the bonus bet. He is a very excellent shooter and it appears to perform well. For example, if table max for ATS is say 10-10-10 he starts shooting with two box#s at $50 and or 54. If the table max is $25 each then he will start two wagers at approx. $75 each. He does not press the box #s unitl at least three hits. The logic is if he can avg >= two hits per hand the box# payouts will replace themselves plus fuel the bonus wagers on his next hand.
Once he gets that third box# hit he starts a methodical up/out on box#s. He feels he can collect a Win on a Side(SorT) with only a <=10-14 hand and can easily fit an ALL win within a <=15-20 range hand. He seldom wagers on Fire.

Ive observed him win several times and color up $3k--$6k, once at $17K. Consider how many rolls our hand must go to hit an inside # enough times to press a $50wager high enough to put $3k--4k in the rack. Unless we are always working its common to see an 8 hit five times yet we only collected 3 or 4 payouts.

I was skeptical at first , however, it may warrant additional thoughts.
Any ideas or opinions?

What are the merits to stagger our wagers (e.g., $5-10-5, or 10-5-10. or 20-15-25 and go for the T, ..etc). Consider how many times we observe a shooter (rr and di) casually tag one side in a commonly-observed 9-12 toss hand.

Does anyone wager the bonus in a similar manner?

Again I don't play this way (and havnt tested). I will likely test to see how wagering only one side (S orT) at a larger amount will perform. As most of us will agree sometimes variance can allow mega profitable hands. An occasional ATS win may swamp the win size we commonly see on our two $50 box# doing a back/forth press-regress wins of maybe $150-250. My hope would be that I can keep the Buyin fluctuating near even or only slightly neg until I can hit a Side win.

Thx everyone.



All the best,
Tgold

[Tgold]

Hi Riggs

Your Q: "...Do any of you bet the ATS when it's the 34-175-34 and not bet it at 30-150-30?.."

I seldom wager the ATS(only a side or sides) and then only very few times even on the typical 35-175-35.

I refuse to wager this lower payout(30-150-30) as the casinos will continue to gouge on other wagers too(if we tolerate it). Same on a F12 x2 and paying commish on front end for a buy/lay, ...etc.

Thx

All the best,
Tgold

[DarthNater]

I seldom wager the ATS(only a side or sides) and then only very few times even on the typical 35-175-35.

Where do they still have the 35-175-35???

DN8R

[220Inside]

Some places in Biloxi, AC and CT.

[Big O]

In Reno GSR

[DanF]

Some places in Biloxi, AC and CT.

NY state also.

[DarthNater]

It’s time to bump this thread into gear as there’s ATS bets to win.

Since the reopening, I have hit the Tall three times, twice at Bellagio (bet it once, sigh, @ $5), once at GVR for a buck. And the small once, last Monday at the Nugget with the June Jammers.

My last BT book from straight out has my v2 mutant producing many more 12s than 2s. So I have been looking at sets for 2s.

I also have been rereading this thread as I think my stronger tendency in the BT data is the Tall, so I think going forward from here, I should have more $$$ riding on the Tall, and I’m also considering progression betting on my ATS shooting. We’ll see, once I validate some sniper sets

DN8R

[Big O]

I have hit the Tall three times, twice at Bellagio (bet it once, sigh, @ $5), once at GVR for a buck.

I mentioned to BD a while back, i have come to the conclusion that if you are trying to hit the ATS you have to bet it all the time. Its the small or tall hits (we only need 1 out of 10) that keep us even until the ALL hits for a good pay out. If we dont bet it and miss a hit then the odds are really against us. Of course i am not talking about betting it on everyone. Even betting on other DIs is dangerous unless you play with them all the time or at least for an extended period of sessions.

There are exceptions, if you are working on toss issues, playing on unfamiliar tables or any other reason that hurts your confidence its a bad bet. I guess technically its always a bad bet but if your have a set that shows you can hit it and play on a table you have confidence on i think its the best of the bonus bets.
I am interested on what you come up with on the progression betting.I have a dice buddy that is insisting i should be progression betting the ATS on myself. It would have been a gold mine this week in practice but as my wife( who keeps me grounded even more than my own conservative tendencies do) says," Wheres is all this money?" She is not impressed with practice stats.

[hard6]

DN8R

So I have been looking at sets for 2s.

Try a Hardway set with one's on the top and your favorite pair on the side.

I also use this set with the sixes on the top to get a twelve. I toss a lot of twos and twelves with these sets. I use this only on come out rolls - double pitches are ugly..

Last week I played at the M and GVR and rolled 5 Tall and one Small. On 4 of the Tall I only needed the two to make the Small and All but couldn't make it.

[DarthNater]

Well done at GVR and M. That M table gives me problems and I never seem to get a preferred position since reopening.

I looked at the hard way set transpositions-lots of sevens in my book of rolls. I actually looked at all 24 sets in my Highest SRR Group in the Coaster Chart. There is a very symmetric pattern as four sets max out 12s and their opposites max out 2s. All four of the sets producing 2s had the ones on the most frequent face matching.

Each of the four Sets produced +24 more appearances than the expected average for a book of 720 rolls For 2s. But which of the four to pick? Well, it depends. For instance one was four heavy, another was horn heavy, another was 6 heavy, etc. So, I’m going with all four and letting the size of my biggest pressed bet dictate which - figuring I might as well get a few hits while I wait for the aces. One catch, one of those sets didn't pan out in practice: > 50% sevens - so still tinkering.

Ironically the last couple oF live casino ATS forays, the aces came quickly and it was other numbers needed to fill the sequence, so these three sets are not yet casino applied.

DN8R

[Big O]

Try a Hardway set with one's on the top and your favorite pair on the side

I looked at the hard way set transpositions-lots of sevens in my book of rolls.

Just for clarification, i think what hard6 is calling a hardway set is actually parallel or straight 6 sets depending on which pair your put on the sides. Both of them as well as the Hardway set produce to many 7s for me so i opt for X6s to try and hit 2s and 12s. It actually produces 3 and 11 as well but if i get stuck needing one of those two a 180 horizonal rotation of one die helps sometimes.

[memo]

Tgold,

The guy you describe I kinda admire since he has developed a strategy and perfected it to the point that (obviously) he can do it almost in his sleep. In the same way, N8 is perfecting his sets according to the analysis he is doing. He can and will make the 'few' changes according to preplanning and preparation...Making it automatic.

I sincerely believe that having to do an on the spot analysis of what set changes are necessary in order to complete the ATS is enough to take a shooter entirely out of the zone that got him there to begin with. The pressure generated by watching the ATS progress is enough stress without stopping to consider what moves are necessary to snipe out remaining numbers.

My thinking is that that making the ATS is really nothing more than an 'Outlier' streak of variance that Irish reminds us of....generated by the suppression of sevens and longer hand that generates. So, the best DI, or any DI, that tosses mostly 6,8 will make the ATS just by virtue of long, outlier hands without tweaking his sets. Tossing a 2 or 12 is one die off axis with the 2V or 3V. Most of us are going to have a hard time tossing less than 50% off axis anyway, so those numbers will come if the hand continues. So, I am all about continuing.

Memo

[DarthNater]

This is absolutely correct. Changing sets to snipe out a number "feels" like you're proactively doing something. The chance that you'll actually succeed is often counter-balanced by the fact that you may be switching to a set that is less successful avoiding the seven. If you've devised your best sevens avoidance permutation in one set, there is only one identical permutation in each of the two other sets. If the number(s) you're sniping is not on the highest appearing faces of these two sets, you're probably not increasing the appearance rate by changing sets. You'll remember when you are successful sniping, and pass off when you're unsuccessful as "that was going to happen anyway." Both conclusions are probably wrong. Dance with girl you brung.

Agreed. I highlighted the KEY for me above. I use a set in my primary Group of 24 with the aces on the most frequent faces. I limit sniping to sets in the same Group; even though changing to a S6 Group could increase my aces frequency - it also increases my sevens frequency. So I'm dancing with the Group I brought, while also looking to score the elusive $900 ATS toss.

DN8R

[hard6]

DN8R

I use the "Hardway" (Straight Sixes) or Aces on comeout rolls only with good success in rolling twos or twelves.

If you use the regular Hardway set you throw sevens with double pitches or both dice off axis.
I feel these aren't very good tosses.