22Inside's Betting Evolution

[220Inside]

As DI's we are constantly learning and refining our tosses and betting strategies, or at least we should be. I'm certainly no different. This is a never ending journey not just something where you reach a pinnacle and go stagnant. I'm starting this thread to keep track and discuss either major changes or refinements to my primary betting strategy on myself and a few other very trusted DI's that I can probably count on one hand. For other DI's I'm dialing things back a bit, including qualifying them before betting. Of course randies are a different animal altogether, extremely conservative, either no bet, OHCM or dark side plays.

So to that end, I've been working on refining my primary betting strategy the past couple of weeks. This has been driven from two primary things. Some recent toss tweaks to correct some flaws that had crept in and led to a fairly long stretch of ugly hands and results both at home practice and out in the wild have really reached a point where I am comfortable with them have changed my signature numbers. For a long time, I was an even numbers shooter but with this new toss I'm pounding away at the inside numbers more often than not. The other thing was that I was looking to get a little more aggressive in my betting, as another side effect of how I was betting previously during my toss troubles had turned really conservative to the point where it felt like I was playing scared. Finally, I had also come up with a hardway strategy that I wanted to incorporate into my betting.

So, out with the 44/66 even numbers strategy and in with the new.

The new strategy that has been wargaming pretty well the past few weeks in my home practice sessions has three components to it. I start out with $96 across and $1 on the hardways, with an intent to get to two hits and regress on the 4 and 10. Assuming a $10 table, this works out to an initial outlay of $110 (if the point is 4 or 10, where I use $15 odds), $112 (if the point is 6 or 8, where I use $20 odds) or $115 (if the point is 5 or 9 where I use $20 odds)

Once the hand starts, the first phase is a two hits of same bet play and then pull down the 4 and 10. If the point it 4 or 10, then I go to 3 hits to pay for the PL odds on the point. Tosses of inside numbers automatically count towards the 2 or 3 same bet hits. If I toss a 4 or 10, the initial hit on that number I press to $25 and rack the rest, which pays for that number and I will not regress on it. If I get subsequent hits on a pressed up 4 or 10 while in this first phase, I same bet it and count that hit towards the 2/3 hits I'm looking for to reach my regression point. Once I reach my regression point, I pull down any unpressed 4 or 10 place bets. The hardway bets stay up.

This brings me to the second phase. Here, I'm looking to get to green chip territory on the inside numbers. On the first hit of an inside number, I press it and its sister number to green chip bets. For a hit on 5 or 9, I press both to $25 and rack $1. For 6 or 8, I drop $3 and take both to $30. If I toss a 4 or 10 at this point, I place it for $10, if I'm not in a profit position for the hand yet or $15 if I'm in a profit position. If the 4 or 10 is already pressed up to $25 from a hit in the first phase, I same bet it until I reach a profit position for the hand. Once I'm in green chip territory for the inside numbers, I move to the last stage of the strategy.

This last stage of the strategy is where I start pressing numbers as they hit. I am pressing numbers individually. I use the following press schedules now:

4/10 (unchanged from how I've always bet them): 25 50 100 200 400 800 1500 2500 5000
5/9: 25 35 50 75 100 150 250 350 500 750 1000...
6/8: 30 42 60 90 120 180 300 420 600 900 1200...

I've abandoned the collect/press portions of my previous inside press schedules and now just press up a little and rack some on each hit.

As for the hardway portion of this, I'm starting with $1 on each. On each subsequent easy way hit, I increase the bet on that hardway up $1. If I toss a hardway, I parlay up to a max of $25 for a hit on 6/8 and rack any remainder (thus $1 parlay to $10, $2 parlays to $20, $3 goes to $25 and I rack $5). For hardway hits on 4 or 10, I parlay up to a max of $16 and rack any remainder (so, $1 parlay to $8, $2 parlay to $16, $3 press to $15 and rack $9). If I toss an easy number on a pressed up hardway, I rebet it at $1 for each hit to that point. If I toss any back to back hardways, I basically double the bet on each subsequent hit and rack the rest.

So this sounds fairly complicated but I think it strikes a decent balance of moderately conservative play up front through the regression and build up to green chip level stages but also gets me to a position where I can take reasonable advantage of a mid length hand to make some profits and the press schedules are consistent enough to really fill the rack if I happen to catch a monster or really light up a particular number. It's also flexible enough to allow me to play into hands where I start tossing 4's or 10's instead of sitting around TUMA on them.

In practice, its worked out pretty well so far. I'm reaching the regression point a good number of times which reduces the shortfall to a reasonable amount on short hands that don't progress beyond that level. As with any strategy, I take a pretty good whack if I PSO or don't reach that initial regression point. I'm getting through the build out phase to green chip level on a good number of hands too since it's generally only a couple of extra tosses with the initial pressing of sister numbers on the first hit. I'm tossing a fair number of mid length hands of >10 rolls at this point that turn hands profitable and once I get beyond hands of high teens/low 20's the returns are decent compared to my prior betting and press schedules.

Comments and feedback are welcome.

[r_ventura_23]

I like the new press schedule on the 6 and 8. It gets you to the same place, in the same number of rolls, and does not confuse the dealers as much.

[Moe Bettor]

I like various parts of your new play especially the advance of the 5 and 9 early on. Often now the five and nine is my only play early on. $20 on each and one hit funds 6 and 8 at $12 each and bring down 5 and 9 to $10 each. I would find it difficult to advance that much outlay as you are doing even on great shooters. Got to know they are having a good day first. And I avoid the hdways. But..if you are successful with this, fantastic!
Happy to hear your progress.

[Big O]

If I toss a 4 or 10, the initial hit on that number I press to $25 and rack the rest, which pays for that number and I will not regress on it

.

I really like this. ^

I hate missing a payout on the 4 and 10. I like the hard way strategy as well. i tend to play them when i think they are streaking. Interesting to if your strategy might work on a regular basis. I usually bet one each,press them all one first hit (occasionally parlay first hit) some times take the one hit to 5. I dont have a SOP unless you want to use the abbreviation to stand for seat of pants instead of standard operating procedureon 4s and 10s. Im sure you will put the new system through its paces and get it honed and ready.

Thanks for starting this thread. I have been wanting to make a post about practice and just havent got around to it.

[220Inside]

I like various parts of your new play especially the advance of the 5 and 9 early on. Often now the five and nine is my only play early on. $20 on each and one hit funds 6 and 8 at $12 each and bring down 5 and 9 to $10 each. I would find it difficult to advance that much outlay as you are doing even on great shooters. Got to know they are having a good day first. And I avoid the hdways. But..if you are successful with this, fantastic!
Happy to hear your progress.

Thanks Nick

I always start off every new session more conservative at first, even on myself, to judge how my shot is looking and get dialed in. I adopt the same philosophy for other shooters too.

As for hardways, I've sat around too many times doing my best TUMA impersonation, when a good shooter goes on on the hardways. Including myself. I used to avoid hardways bets totally and felt like I was really missing out on opportunities and even when I would try to jump in and catch a hand that looked hardway rich, it felt more like pure gambling as I had no real strategy going in on how I would bet them which I hated even more than missing out on one of these hands. So I finally took the time to sit down and think about how I might want to play them and came up with this. The thinking behind the presses on easy way hits is that I want to put myself in a position to really capitalize on an initial hardway hit when I get a hand that is really dialed in on a specific number. So I look at this as really just baking in a hardway portion into my press schedules on a number.

[220Inside]

I like the new press schedule on the 6 and 8. It gets you to the same place, in the same number of rolls, and does not confuse the dealers as much.

The other advantage of this that I've found is that it confuses me less as well. In theory, it's not really all that difficult to track hits on each number individually, but in practice I would sometimes find myself forgetting whether a particular number had been same betted or not when I had reached a level where I was doing a collect and press in my press schedules. Plus I always hated when I would do a full press and then not see another hit on the number before the hand ended and that seemed to happen fairly frequently. It felt like a lost profit opportunity.

Now it's just automatic. If I'm not immediately aware in my head of where I am on a given number, a quick glance down at the bet tells me immediately what move I want to make.

[r_ventura_23]

I agree. My schedule is 12 18 42 42 90. So many times I get to $90 and I never get to collect that black chip. At least you are getting a hit on $60.

[memo]

22I,

It is obvious that you have put a great deal of thought into this evolutionary strategy..
I find it very interesting.

I like how you are pressing to the green level very quickly..And the last level you are using a press schedule that the dealers will comply with very easily..That is always a plus..

As you say, it takes about 10 hits to make this begin to work. And of course, the short hands are a real killer. With this in mind, combined with the fact that many sessions the hands are limited to 6-12 or so tosses with PSO, PSSO's sprinkled in. (We have all been there)....Can your, 'move quickly to green', press schedule make up for losses on short hands?

Actually, it looks like you have limited your early exposure pretty well. My experience with ISR is that the short hands are really not so much of a problem, but rather it is the preponderance of low to medium hands that limits your ability to catch up from a quick deep loss. (or two)

I am just noodling about..
All ISR's go through stages
First stage is high exposure...Say toss 2-4...Covering your reduced bets. Little if no profit
Second stage is positioning..From about toss 4 to about 10-12. In this case moving to green..Minimal profit.
Third stage is taking profit and beginning final press schedule

One must finish the second stage in order to have much profit at all. Interestingly enough, this is the point where Heavy demonstrates (with a pyramid of chips on the table) that there is high probability for the hand to end.

As much as I like the ISR....It seems like a lot to go through with all the exposure to a short hand, only to be poised to make profit at just the place the hand is likely to end. With a few PSO's and an abundance of hands in the 6-12 range, playing 'catch up' waiting for a mid level hand, could be the norm....Ask me how I know.

Contrast this with the MP204 which begins taking profit on the third paying hit.

Sounds like I am talking myself out of ISR...Well, after watching Heavy layout his chip pyramid and combining with my experience...It really got me thinking.

Memo

[220Inside]

As you say, it takes about 10 hits to make this begin to work. And of course, the short hands are a real killer. With this in mind, combined with the fact that many sessions the hands are limited to 6-12 or so tosses with PSO, PSSO's sprinkled in. (We have all been there)....Can your, 'move quickly to green', press schedule make up for losses on short hands?

So far it really has played out well. I run my home practice with a $500 buy in, just like I would in a live session. The difference is that I tend to lat that buy in play out over a few hundred rolls before resetting and starting over with a new buy in. In a practice session, if I toss three bad hands, I stop, just like I would plan to do in live play. So far, over several of these cycles, I have run my initial buy in up to the $2k-4k range almost every single time. I can only think of 1 or two instances where I played a buy in down to zero and those were fairly early on in this process as I was refining what I've settled on and outlined in the original post in this thread.

For example, when I first started this new play I was doing an even steeper regression to $44 inside and building up from there. That just wound up to be way too conservative and ultimately led to a greater risk of ruin than not quite as steep of a regression that I've zeroed in on here.

Actually, it looks like you have limited your early exposure pretty well. My experience with ISR is that the short hands are really not so much of a problem, but rather it is the preponderance of low to medium hands that limits your ability to catch up from a quick deep loss. (or two)

I am just noodling about..
All ISR's go through stages
First stage is high exposure...Say toss 2-4...Covering your reduced bets. Little if no profit
Second stage is positioning..From about toss 4 to about 10-12. In this case moving to green..Minimal profit.
Third stage is taking profit and beginning final press schedule

One must finish the second stage in order to have much profit at all. Interestingly enough, this is the point where Heavy demonstrates (with a pyramid of chips on the table) that there is high probability for the hand to end.

I think you are exactly right here, memo, but it wasn't until this latest iteration in my betting strategy that breaking it down into these three stages really dawned on me. I think that looking at assembling a strategy from this perspective is really beneficial as it forces you to break things down further and focus on each stage individually. I've actually feel like I've learned quite a bit in this iteration and seeing the light on this.

I need to pay a little more attention to Heavy's pyramid example this time around.

As much as I like the ISR....It seems like a lot to go through with all the exposure to a short hand, only to be poised to make profit at just the place the hand is likely to end. With a few PSO's and an abundance of hands in the 6-12 range, playing 'catch up' waiting for a mid level hand, could be the norm....Ask me how I know.

Contrast this with the MP204 which begins taking profit on the third paying hit.

Sounds like I am talking myself out of ISR...Well, after watching Heavy layout his chip pyramid and combining with my experience...It really got me thinking.

I've always been a firm believer that it is those mid level hands that will make or break a player over both the short and long term. Those monster hands when they come along are nice, but they are few and far between. You need to find a way to weather the storm of those short and mid length hands to survive long enough to be around when one comes along and be in a position to take advantage of it. The accumulation of those small wins that are the signature of mid length hands adds up over time, so a betting strategy becomes a battle of tradeoffs on how quickly you can reach that breakeven point so that you can get to a small profit position in these mid length hands.

I never paid much attention to MP204 as it was way out of my comfort zone when I was first starting out. It still is even though I've long outlived my 22Inside moniker I might need to go dust that off and see if it can be broken down to a more modest level that would be more in line with my current bankroll and comfort zone.

Thanks for all the feedback and discussion. Good stuff!

[rhythm roller]

Since you mentioned MP204, here are some things I do and what I analyzed in Bone tracker to get confidence to get here.
(1) checked bonetracker to see my percentage of PSO's and PPSO's as compared to random. I keep checking it but I am at about 50% of random.
(2) checked my average number of boxnumbers to 7's. Also keep checking but I am at about 3.5 box per 7 so feel comfortable conservatively with 2 hits prior to regression.

With those 2 things I came up with a plan for my tosses only. Now I do $204 and sometimes $408 across for 2 hits and then steep regression. $408 is for tables I know well and have a lot of success on and also low population tables. No odds on my passline until regression. Just makes betting easier for me and the dealers.

22 I like your hard way play which I never bet now. Think I will play with this awhile at home so I have that plan to incorporate into my casino play at times. Great info about your evolution in betting technique and I like your 3 phase idea. I need to get more regimented about my play after regression. Thanks!

[heavy]

Now it's just automatic. If I'm not immediately aware in my head of where I am on a given number, a quick glance down at the bet tells me immediately what move I want to make.

I wanted to come back to 22inside's comment here and drill down on it a little bit. Over the last couple of years the issue of players not having a clue as to (1) where their own bets are on the layout, (2) how much they had bet on a particular number on the layout, (3) what the payoff was on that particular bet, (4) what their press move or next step (if any) was going to be on that hit on that number, (5) and under what circumstances they were going to go off, regress, come down, and to what levels they were going to do that, and how much they needed to hand the dealer to simplify the process, etc. etc. etc. - has gotten increasingly under my skin. Seriously, guys. Give me a freaking break!

Three weeks ago I stood at the table with twelve players who supposedly had been playing this game an average of 10 years plus and not one of them had a clue what the hell they were doing with their bets. One guy standing next to me continuously picked up my winnings in error because "I'm used to standing in your position." He even got pissed off at the dealer for putting his winnings in front of me when they weren't HIS winnings! And over and over I heard players arguing over which bet was theirs, asking how much they had on a number, or just plain getting the deer in the headlights look when the six rolled for the ninth time and the player had $18 on it and the dealer asked "Same bet?" Seriously? Can you not at least memorize three words? "UP A UNIT?"

LEARN HOW TO PRESS.
LEARN HOW TO DO IT QUICKLY - WHEN IT IS YOUR TURN.
IF YOU ARE GOING TO REGRESS - KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GOING DOWN TO AND USE YOUR WORDS.
WHEN IN DOUBT - "TURN ME OFF" or "BRING ME DOWN."
STOP KILLING THE GAME FOR THE REST OF US.

For those of you attending my seminars in the future - expect to hear MUCH more on this topic.

[220Inside]

You forgot to mention players yelling out their bets to the dealer and tossing in chips for any presses before it's their turn in the payout carousel. That one annoys me as well.

Or, harping to the dealer about where's where's my hardway, or any other center table bet, payout while they're still paying out place bets.

[heavy]

Yep. All of the above and MORE.

[memo]

Three weeks ago I stood at the table with twelve players who supposedly had been playing this game an average of 10 years plus and not one of them had a clue what the hell they were doing with their bets. One guy standing next to me continuously picked up my winnings in error because "I'm used to standing in your position." He even got pissed off at the dealer for putting his winnings in front of me when they weren't HIS winnings! And over and over I heard players arguing over which bet was theirs, asking how much they had on a number, or just plain getting the deer in the headlights look when the six rolled for the ninth time and the player had $18 on it and the dealer asked "Same bet?" Seriously? Can you not at least memorize three words? "UP A UNIT?"

LEARN HOW TO PRESS.
LEARN HOW TO DO IT QUICKLY - WHEN IT IS YOUR TURN.
IF YOU ARE GOING TO REGRESS - KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GOING DOWN TO AND USE YOUR WORDS.
WHEN IN DOUBT - "TURN ME OFF" or "BRING ME DOWN."
STOP KILLING THE GAME FOR THE REST OF US.

For those of you attending my seminars in the future - expect to hear MUCH more on this topic.

Why do I feel the need to go stand in a corner?

Memo

[Bankerdude80]

I never paid much attention to MP204 as it was way out of my comfort zone when I was first starting out. It still is even though I've long outlived my 22Inside moniker I might need to go dust that off and see if it can be broken down to a more modest level that would be more in line with my current bankroll and comfort zone.

Check out FREAK's posts on a modified MP204. I think Freak broke it down to $96 or so. I think MP's intent was the pyramiding of bets to get the $50 for $1 payout right out of the gate. I like the fact that you are war gaming your strategy without real money at risk. You gradually develop a comfort to betting at that level. On my latest lone wolf trip, my average hands were in the mid-teens. A few outliers were in the mid-twenties and mid-thirties. I had only one PSO and a few hands in the less than ten roll range. Almost Bell curve predictability. My guess is that your live tossing will yield similar results. If you can solidify a profit on mid-teen rolls you'll be in good position. Variance is a bitch, and when she's negative be prepared to walk away.

Should we refer to you as 96across+4 now?

On a side note, when I think at how sometimes I'll drop $100 into a slot machine without blinking an eye, and not bet the same amount on myself when I am tossing the dice confirms that I can be a moron. I have to revisit my betting strategy too. I've gotten very timid when betting now since the past year has been rough on my bankroll. I need to regain that betting confidence. Thanks for posting on this topic.

[Rickhem]

+1 on the plan to know your bets, presses, and regressions ahead of time. I actually have a page saved on my phone under the "Notes" button called Bet Progressions that detail this up to 6 hits on my usual bets, including what it should pay, what the next level would be for pressing, and how much I should add to get there, or how much comes back to me. (like going from $12 each on the 6 & 8, to $18 each after a hit, I should get $2 back) I have the progressive presses memorized up to $48 each, but refer to the page on my phone when going past that.

And also agree that it's frustrating to wait for the dealer to get to my bets after a toss, and have other players throwing chips and shouting bets and moves. The dealer gets distracted and you end up with a few pissed off people all standing next to each other.

[220Inside]

+1 on the plan to know your bets, presses, and regressions ahead of time. I actually have a page saved on my phone under the "Notes" button called Bet Progressions that detail this up to 6 hits on my usual bets, including what it should pay, what the next level would be for pressing, and how much I should add to get there, or how much comes back to me. (like going from $12 each on the 6 & 8, to $18 each after a hit, I should get $2 back) I have the progressive presses memorized up to $48 each, but refer to the page on my phone when going past that.

And also agree that it's frustrating to wait for the dealer to get to my bets after a toss, and have other players throwing chips and shouting bets and moves. The dealer gets distracted and you end up with a few pissed off people all standing next to each other.

On the memorization thing, in order to simplify things you really only need to memorize a portion of your progression. At some point, depending on how many steps you have to it, you'll reach a point where the presses start to repeat themselves as a multiplier of the original press moves. Let's look at one of my press schedules for the 6/8

6/8: 18 30 42 60 90 120 180 300 420 600 900 1200...

Here, I only need to memorize the first half of the press schedule as it starts repeating itself at the 180 level. Once you get here the presses and payouts or any handins are identical, just multiplied by a factor of 10. SO, for example, when you go from 18 -> 30, the payout is $21 and you will get back $9 in profit. At the 180 -> 300 level, the payout is $210 (i.e. 10x the amount at the $18 level) and you will get back $90 (again, 10x the amount of the 18 -> 30 press)

Another popular example is if you are at the $42 level and choose to do a $50 for $1. The payout on $42 is $49, drop $1 and collect $50. At the $420 level, everything is multiplied by 10. So the payout here is $490, you drop $10 and collect $500. Or, in other words, $500 for $10.

Figuring out these patterns in a press schedule can go a long way to making all of them much easier to memorize and have yourself in a position to make the betting moves automatic. But having a set of notes to refer to is also an excellent idea, regardless.

[r_ventura_23]

Still waiting on my first $500 for $10. I have got a purple on the 4 and 10 but not on the 6 and 8 yet.

[Rickhem]

You guys are all way ahead of me. I had a weekend where every time I pressed past my third hit, I'd lose it to the seven.....every time. That spooked me.

I press my 6 & 8 together, so for me starting at $12 each, first hit presses both to $18 each with $2 back, then next hit goes to $30 each by adding $3. (this works out to me playing $25 per shooter, which is how I bet random rollers) On some I will regress with the next hit back to $12 each, and sometimes I'll add $1 to make them look like $48 each. I've collected there and regressed many times, but by dropping another $4 I can also go to $78 each. I've only ever collected at that level twice. I've been in hands that went on for where there was 8 or 9 hits on my bets, but because I regressed at some point in those hands, I never pressed up to betting black chips. It's the bankroll preservation thing that stops me from letting the presses get too high initially, I'm too leary of losing it all.

I will add that I'm learning to regress in favor of taking everything down or turning the bets off. Sure, I've had those instances where turning off or taking down is followed immediately by the seven, and you feel like a psychic, but I've also watched hands go on for another half-dozen hits on my numbers while I stand there TUMA. If the hits come fast with a randie, I'll go three hits before regressing, if it takes six or seven tosses to get that second hit, I'll just regress there and pull $23 of my initial $24 back off the felt, but leave base level bets up and working.

Looking back, I see my progress, slowly gaining confidence in the game, so I'll get there.

[220Inside]

Since we've been talking about the importance of memorizing your press moves, this seems appropriate...

With Heavy's class in Biloxi coming up in 2 short weeks, I've been starting to practice with Biloxi rules in mind and how I would modify my betting strategy for it. In Biloxi, they have auto buys on not only the 4 and 10, but the 5 and 9 as well, with the vig paid on the back end. IIRC, the auto buy starts at the $20 level.

For the time being, I'm not going to increase my initial bets beyond the $96 across level to bump any of the outsides to $20. Similarly, my stage 1 (2 hits and regress) and stage 2 (build out to green chip level on inside numbers) are staying intact as well. Rather I'm primarily focused on refining my press schedule on the 5 and 9. With the auto buy on 5 and 9, I'm thinking I can/should be slightly more aggressive on my progression. Instead of

15 25 35 50 75 100 150 250 350 500 750 1000..

I'm thinking of this for a revised press schedule for Biloxi

15 30 50 80 120 200 300 500 800 1200 2000 3000...

Same 11 hits, but a lot more in the rack. Not a huge difference in profit at the lower levels so not really sacrificing much in it being more aggressive. Here's the difference in rack amounts for each press of the new schedule compared with the original

-5 0 11 35 20 110 140 200 460 550 1200

As always, comments and feedback welcome.