3+Capping w/JP's "Ricochet System" & MP's ..Testing...#'s=

[WOLFBYTE]

Yo..... Kindred, Carbon-Based, Earthbound White-Lights....

I have been following MP's thread : " TESTING...TESTING...TESTING...."

He is using real recorded craps numbers from some of these players :

Heavy,ElephantTracks,Stanford Wong, CharleG, AllyOop's,DoSA,Nune,ShootItAll,BobbyBones,CrimsonTide,TN-Nighthawk,PappyVanWinkle and many,many more Good-Experienced Craps Players.

MP is running 100's of the above players numbers and betting systems, together, to see what system works best ?

I have printed-out his posted numbers and I am running them through my ..." Newly-Improved "... "3+Capping Craps System."

After running a "naked " stripped-down first-version of the 5-Step Neg. Progression through my computer for 5,000+ back-tested outcomes, years ago, I took it to Vegas, Reno and the Lake Tahoe Casino's.

I started with a $1,200.00 gaming kitty and ran it up to over + $12,000.00 on those 12-hour bus turnaround gaming trips.

I became over-confiedent (ego ) and on the 7th trip, I ran into a System-killer outcome-pattern and I gave back $6,000.00.

I quit using it after that loss....for years.... then a couple of years ago, I took my 80+ year old Mother and her housekeeper in my top-down convertible to the Rio for 3 nights.

While they were playing the slots, I cranked-up that old Computer-Tested 50/50 Betting System and I used it to hit-and-run.

I took the roulette wheels for a net of +$3,250.00, in those 3 days.

But, winning with it was never the same after that -$6K loss. That loss showed me It was NOT a bullet-proof winning system....even though I had won 124 straight outcomes it...." LOST " ...on the 125th outcome ! I was crushed !

I have re-visited that Even-Odd, Black-Red, High-Low, PL/DP line and Player/Bank 50/50 Betting System over the past several weeks and I have added safety-vests to it to try to make it ...bulletproof !

I added John Patrick's ... most excellent ..." Richochet 100% Craps Hedging System, " and my " 3+Capping Pre-Betting Craps Table Qualifier System" and a 100% hedge-out of the 6 and 8 points (place betting ) when they come up as the points. ( they come-back and make their points...way to often ) to my old Nuts-and-Bolts 5-Step Neg. Progression Craps System.

I have lead-and-paper back-tested the first 55 shooters from the Mad Professor's ..." TESTING...TESTING...TESTING..." craps numbers file

I have had zero losses !

It is generating +$800.00 to $1,600.00 an hour in back-testing !

I am jazzed ! ...but... I am on-Super-Guard for ANY in-play meltdown because if it meltdown's... just once....it is "GONE " as a System !

Thoughts ?
Jim

[Roller123]

Did you take it beyond 125 casino trips to see if it passed or failed?

[heavy]

Sounds to me like you took a fairly complex system and complicated it even more. Personally, I don't think I could keep track of all of the bets, when to progress, when to take action down, etc.

[Kelph]

You, MP or anybody can back test any system ever conceived until the cows come home (ever wonder where they've been) and all you've done is re-fight an historical battle filled in with bunches What Ifs. Sure it will show whether an approach has any legs in certain situations or if it's just a load of crap in a very general way.

Every up has a down, left has a right, a yin its yang and so on. Mechanical plays will fair good and bad depending which way they're focused and the results that are appearing.

Hands may be similar in many respects but they are also different at the same time. I'm not one of these anti-math guys but I'm not blinded by it either, especially when it comes to what may occur in the short term. Be aware of the math but be tuned in and reacting to the dynamics of the specific game your part of and keep a tight stop loss in case you're just incredibly wrong.

Others no doubt feel differently about this. I'm really not sure what MP is doing as this is the first I've heard of the testing but from what has been posted here I'd say one can only say such and such worked best with these specific numbers compared to these other methods. Beyond that it all still remains in the dark.

Kelph

[heavy]

It's my understanding from conversations with others that MP has been testing a number of fairly well known strategies in search of the "best" way to play when a known DI has the dice. Let me get my crystal ball out for a moment. Ah. There it is. The best way to play is with an initial steep regression - and the steeper the regression the better. Well, I'd probably dispute that. I think there is a point at which too steep of an initial progression is counter productive. Five to ten units - fine. A hundred units? Ridiculous. Of course, I'm doing a theoretical mind pick here. I'd probably suggest something like this for long-run players. Pass Line with odds. Hold off a roll or two to "qualify" the shooter. Place the Six and Eight for the most you can afford based on your bankroll. Then make continuous Come bets with odds until the cows come home. Take the place bets on the six and eight down after they are replaced by Come bets. That's your "regression." Just my thinking. I think Midgley would agree with me.

[Mad Professor]

Here's a link to that "Testing, testing, testing" thread over on the Dice Institute's message-board. As you will see if you read through it, the initial testing concept has expanded to include several different methods (and as far as I know, none of them contemplate any 8,000-to-1 regressions ).

That thread is ongoing...there's still another 10,000 or so tosses thrown by the D-I's mentioned in the first post of that thread; but the findings so far are interesting.

http://diceinstitute.maxforum.org/2011/ ... g-testing/


MP

[memo]

MP,

I think there is a lot to be said for the testing thread.
Sure there is a bunch of DI's of varying abilities...Varying casinos, and it has a blended outcome. So much so that it may have a random overall outcome.
I does however take place in real world circumstances..(something we have lacked in large numbers)
The common thread is dedicated DI tosses..(under peer pressure, and a lot of it)
If you can find something that works even reasonably well, with that much data, one can at least get an idea of an approach to take. Sure like it better than seat of the pants betting.

Same can be said of using BT at home and expecting the same numbers to come up at the casino. That is expecting too much. It is a tool,,an indicator
I like indicators....Thanks to all, for the work.

Memo

[Jonah]

[snip]
After running a "naked " stripped-down first-version of the 5-Step Neg. Progression through my computer for 5,000+ back-tested outcomes, years ago, I took it to Vegas, Reno and the Lake Tahoe Casino's.

I started with a $1,200.00 gaming kitty and ran it up to over + $12,000.00 on those 12-hour bus turnaround gaming trips.

I became over-confiedent (ego ) and on the 7th trip, I ran into a System-killer outcome-pattern and I gave back $6,000.00.

I quit using it after that loss....for years.... then a couple of years ago, I took my 80+ year old Mother and her housekeeper in my top-down convertible to the Rio for 3 nights.

While they were playing the slots, I cranked-up that old Computer-Tested 50/50 Betting System and I used it to hit-and-run.

I took the roulette wheels for a net of +$3,250.00, in those 3 days.

But, winning with it was never the same after that -$6K loss. That loss showed me It was NOT a bullet-proof winning system....even though I had won 124 straight outcomes it...." LOST " ...on the 125th outcome ! I was crushed !

I have re-visited that Even-Odd, Black-Red, High-Low, PL/DP line and Player/Bank 50/50 Betting System over the past several weeks and I have added safety-vests to it to try to make it ...bulletproof !

I added John Patrick's ... most excellent ..." Richochet 100% Craps Hedging System, " and my " 3+Capping Pre-Betting Craps Table Qualifier System" and a 100% hedge-out of the 6 and 8 points (place betting ) when they come up as the points. ( they come-back and make their points...way to often ) to my old Nuts-and-Bolts 5-Step Neg. Progression Craps System.

I have lead-and-paper back-tested the first 55 shooters from the Mad Professor's ..." TESTING...TESTING...TESTING..." craps numbers file

I have had zero losses !

It is generating +$800.00 to $1,600.00 an hour in back-testing !

I am jazzed ! ...but... I am on-Super-Guard for ANY in-play meltdown because if it meltdown's... just once....it is "GONE " as a System !

Thoughts ?
Jim

Um, excuse me Jim,

But you have in a previous post said, "There is only a one in 46 chances that the recovery-game will fail !!! ( so says the manual )."

So my question is, what's the problem?

You posted you WON 124 out of 125 times, which is WINNING at least 2.6 times MORE times than what you said the manual said, and that you took your $1,200 bankroll to over $12,000 — that's at least +$4,800 MORE than what you started with, so again, my question is, what's the problem? You WON!

IMHO, If the problem was losing 1 out of 125 times (which is what you posted above), then should you even be gambling (or taking a chance of losing) at all?

Considering, as of this writing, AFAIK, there are only two certainties in our lives (and a 100% zero loss system is not one of them) — death and taxes...

[heavy]

Varying casinos, and it has a blended outcome. So much so that it may have a random overall outcome.
I does however take place in real world circumstances.

This is the problem I pointed out to Wong way back when he first came out to one of my seminars and tracked rolls by yours truly, Dice Coach, and several of the more experienced students in the class. He "blended" the results together to calculate if there was any edge to be had at DI. Result? He said there was no measurable edge. I suggested he break out each shooter's results individually (even though it was a small book of rolls) and magically everyone had positive EV.

All of this goes to my theory that you should bet each DI differently - according to what he's throwing (which is often what he himself is betting). If playing with my pal SIA, for example, I'm going to play the pass line with odds and bet the four, five, and ten. If he starts tossing sixes or eights (and with him it is usually eights) I will be all over them. But historically he's an outside man and those are the numbers he tosses. Therefore, that's where I place my action.

Regress? I never regress on the four and ten, although I may take them down if they are not paying their rent. Regress on the inside? Absoultely.

[WOLFBYTE]

Yo, Human 25-Watt Generators.........

Jonah, where the... one in 46 ....chances of losing the "recovery game" comes from is the " Silverthorne Neural " manual. It assumes you are playing the Neural System ...by the book. I am not.

Anyway....

I just finished running MP's real, recorded craps file through the 75th shooter. Man O' Man this dice setting thing really works ! The shooters rolls are, more often than not....very long rolls.

I wish to thank John Patrick for his " COOLER " than cold-water on a water well driller's bare butt ... " RICOCHET " System !

It 100% hedges-out the C/O seven from hurting our DP pre-C/O bet. Thank You John.

Yep ! as a DP player.......IT TAKES AWAY THE CASINO'S EDGE.... ON THE C/O 7.... ..FOREVER !

The Ricochet is an easy system to play. You pre-C/O roll scan-back your current just-rolled-craps-numbers to find the ...4,5,9 and 10's just-rolled history.

You Lay-bet the longest non-appearing number as a 100% hedge against the C/O 7 FROM KNOCKING-OFF our DP box- bet when the C/O roll is rolled.

My 3+CAPPING SYSEM is also a simple System :

You wait for a min. of three same way, back-to-back outcomes and for the biased-outcome string, to be broken, by an opposite
outcome.

The 5-step progression can be anything you want. I use the base-betting unit of $200.00. My first time I used real $$$, in Vegas, I used.... 50,100,200,400 and 800.00
as my progression.

I bought in at the M. Carlo Casino for $1,200.00 and at 2:30AM, on Sunday morning, I cashed out ...+$4,400.00 just minutes before the bus boarded for our 6 hour trip back to Fresno, Ca.


EXAMPLE :

SHOOTER #55 and #56's rolls :

4695596854
11
7
56117.....The above, back to back, three PL wins are now " CAPPED " by this play. Starting the 5-step progression on the DP line for our next play. We scan-back to find the longest non-appearing ...4,5,9 and 10 to use as our pre-C/O DP 100% line-bet hedge :

5... has not appeared in 4 rolls...
9... has not appeared in 7 rolls....
10... has not appeared in 20 rolls...
4... has not appeared in 25 rolls...

Therefore, we pre-C/O ...Lay Bet....... " No 4 " for +$100.00, and at the same time, we put $50.00 in the DP box. The point comes up ..." 10."
We take-down our $100.00 hedge- bet and wait for the outcome....
The roll plays-out ...10,9,9,7
We win our DP bet of ..................+$ 50.00

Thoughts ?
Jim

[heavy]

I just think from what I read that the system is so complex . . . I don't know how you ever managed to get $4400 in action - much less in the rack. Question. At the end of the trip did you get on the bus home plus $3200 or were there losses on this trip you failed to mention? Just trying to make sure we're getting the entire picture.

[WOLFBYTE]

Yo Heavy,

I was playing the 6 M. Carlo Roulette wheels and I used a quart plastic bucket to hold the 44 black chips. When I cashed in the blacks, the old gal in the cage wanted to give me an IRS win-loss form.......jesssss !......... I was able to talk her out of that !

I had NO loses. I cashed in 44 blacks ....that included my starting kitty " Seed $$$ " of $1,200.00. I plan to post a detailed trip report on this trip.

The bus stopped for 5 hours at the Border at Whiskey Pete's Casino......so..... I took the employee, bus behind the Casino, next to the propane tank, for $5.00, to Vegas after I made hook-up plans with the tour-guide gal to meet the bus at 8:30PM, Sat. nite, on the strip..........

Jim

[Kelph]

MP,

Thanks for the link. I went and read (rather quick glanced) the thread and it is indeed interesting. I'll probably give it more time this weekend.

Kelph

[memo]

Geez, Heavy,

I could not disagree with your post at all. Point of fact...By following MD's lead, I could make some very 'astute' bets on Irish to add to my rail.
I used to shoot with Dead Cat regularly. I could watch his results for a bit and determine if I wanted to go large on the ten and reduce my four.

Two things are going on here. One is knowing the shooter well (ie, You and SIA, Irish/MD)
Two is that not many of us are able to accurately predict our best numbers even though our shooting is pretty good overall. Especially going from the practice rig to real life casino conditions with DI's watching.

It has been said that I toss a lot of 6 & 8's...Well you couldn't prove it from my at home BT results. It is either a 6 or an 8, but rarely both for a book of rolls. That seems to be the norm...rotating numbers that predominate...Usually inside. I have a feeling that I am not alone.

Seems like I am going in a circle...But I do understand. Together (Shooters, large number of tosses)...No positive EV.
Seperated (Shooter, small number of tosses) positive EV...(Large enough to make good assumption?..I dunno)
Put us together...We tend to gravitate to expected probability. Ten thousand or more tosses would tend to smooth out the curve, for sure.

What if there was a system(s), that would work due to the influence we show in the short spurts...ie. When I tend to hit sixes. Or when DC hits a preponderance of tens. Or someone goes on a 6,8,9 binge. The groupings are out of the norm, and not accounted for in the curve, since in large numbers we tend to move to normal probability. We all go on streaks though...regularly. (Sometimes it is a streak of sevens). We do it more than random, hence, see a horn bet a horn; see an eleven, bet the field has validity for our community.

Seems that a short duration system that can take advantage of these things (short streaks occuring in medium or longer hands...That are common, even re-occuring in successive hands)....Like an ISR or MP204..(There are others)....would be valid
Something that won't break the bank on cold spells, PSO's , but allow positioning for the majority of other hands.

I have only seen one that can adjust to table conditions on the fly..His initials are Heavy. Maybe Dice Coach.
Running all these numbers through a 'back testing' can at least give a glimmer of an indication that it may be possibleto apply a system for DI's, then develop from there.
Maybe it needs too big of bank roll, or need of persistance (Like Dave's system)
I don't know, but a lot of data crunching is occuring..Lets see.

Memo

[heavy]

I think you are on the right track, Memo. Unfortunately, most of us are "action" players. By that I mean we like to spread a lot of money all over the table, including the prop bets. That's fun when it works - but it really drains your bankroll when it doesn't. The Dice Doctor said "always back a winning horse." That's sort of the approach I've taken of late. For example, during one of my hour plus hands at Binions a couple of years back I only pressed the numbers that hit (instead of running a six and eight progression). So there I was with my six pressed up to $120 and my eight was still at $12. I think I tossed one eight on that hand - the rest of the time it was the six and a couple of outside numbers. Fun fun fun.

[WOLFBYTE]

Yo, Earthbounds..........

I have just finished running MP's ...." Testing, Testing...Testing real recorded craps numbers through shooter #103 with 100% winning plays !

I was out in the yard at daybreak, getting my new 12 foot fiberglass ladder ready to paint with UV Protected boat paint and it dawned on me how much better craps, as a gambling game, is compared to other 50/50, flip-of-a-coin Casino games are !

I get to make decisions in Craps .." after " ..... the point is set....hedges, taking down bets, adding to bets...etc. I have NO options with Baccarat and Roulette.

EXAMPLE :

Just completed play using MP's file........

SHOOTER # 90 :

7
7
912889
51264965
7
4129861127 =Above 5 PL wins now ..." Capped " Starting 5-Step Progression next....betting $200.00 DP box next....
6997 ......Place-Bet the "6" for ....$192.00 = +$200.00 and - $192.00 = ........................................................................... +$8.00
7 .............. The "10" has not showed the longest...25 rolls = Lay bet it for +$400.00 & put $200.00 in DP box = Point of 7 = + $200.00/-$200.00
852108........ $400.00...Lay bet the "10" for $400.00 and put $200.00 in DP Box = Pt. of "8." ..." Off " ...Lay Bet and Place Bet = $192.00 on "8." = + $32.00.
7..........The " 10" appeared ..so.. the "4" is now the longest " No-Show" ..$400.00 = " No 4 " & $200.00 in DP box = Pt. of 7 = + $200/-$200.00 ....
58987....... The "4" is still the longest "No Show" = $400.00 "No 4 " & $200.00 in DP box...Pt. comes up a "5." = down on $400.00 C/0 hedge = +$200.00 Net.

We..." stepped over" 3 progression-step-loses by using JP's Ricochet C/O DP bet Protection System and 100% " hedging-out " the 6 and 8 points, using Place betting,

How cool is that ?

Jim

[heavy]

That's great that it works for you WB. But as I've said before - most of the guys around here are "serious recreational gamblers." I suspect they would grow bored playing a by-the-book system. Too much time spent waiting for a particular situation to set up.

[SHOOTITALL]

Memo: You be correct. When I'm at the table with a certain large individual, he gets the dice, I immediately work the five and nine on the C/O. Another DI that lives fairly close to you, I hop the nine. I am well ahead on those two plays.
Now, once at the table with the large individual, I tossed out my working C/O bets, and he didn't get the dice. There I was stuck. Don't remember why he didn't get the dice, but it was kinda funny, me sucking eggs like that. sia

[WOLFBYTE]

SHOOTITALL,

Why are you posting on this thread ?

Your post has nothing to do with the topic ?

Open your own thread !

Jim



MEMO TO WOLFBYTE: I'LL DO THE ADMINISTRATION ON THE FORUM. SIA RESPONDED TO EARLIER POSTS ON THIS THREAD. ENTIRELY APPROPRIATE. THANKS FOR THE EFFORT. -Heavy

[Americraps]

WB- I'm having a difficult time understanding the basics of this system. For example- What is a cap? Can you explain it in terms simple enough that a remdial thinker could understand?