22Inside's Betting Evolution

[wild child]

The lady shooter who is credited as having
tossed The ALL Time World Record LONGEST # of ROLLS in ONE HAND
was said to have "Dice Flung"
24 "GOOD SEVENS" *
and
a singular ONE BAD Dice Fling
resulted in the Terminal 7 aka:Seven Out (S O)

just me saying
w c
*To the best of my recollection *Irish "coined the term "Good Seven"
Thank you Irish
I chuckle those times I toss a Come Out Seven

[heavy]

Maths says 1/6 of seven. Which means avg roll is 6. On the long run.

This is the first thing I cover in every class I do these days, Dan. I have a nice little layout of chips I do on the table that explains the math of craps from a random roller aspect and a DI's aspect with an SRR of 7.0. But let's start with your randy 6.0. "Math says 1/6 of seven. Which means avg. roll is 6. On the long run." What you are saying is that on average the seven rolls one time in six, so the average roll (which I take to means game) is six rolls. That is incorrect. Why? Because the dice don't have what? Correct. A memory. They don't KNOW what roll it is. And SOMETIMES the FIRST roll is a seven, which is a GOOD seven. It's a winner! And the player's hand continues. Which means the player's average hand is not SIX rolls, it's around 8.4 rolls. BUT, since the average HAND is 8.4 rolls the seven is more likely to become a threat somewhere around the mean, which will be around roll 4.

All of this makes one think, "Hey! Maybe that shithead Scoblete was right with his "Five Count" bullshit. To which I'll say "bullshit." Scoblete apparently completely discounted Come betting as a possibility in the whole Five Count concept. You all know that I am not a fan of Come betting, but a Place Bet on the Six and Eight combined with a Come Bet is one of the strongest plays in the book, and I'd make it on damn near anyone who touched the dice. Even Scoblete if I could stand to be at the table with him - which I couldn't. But that's another issue.

There's nothing wrong with Come Betting - even NAKED Come Betting (no $5 Bill, we're not talking about the Sun and Fun Club here) when used judiciously. Just plan your play and play your plan - but don't be an innumerate idiot like Scobe (for example).

[DanF]

From my point of view, I see Irish blasting of strategies based on the HE / HA excuse. Saying you need to have your bet paid for before you start pressing because you MIGHT get a few short rolls in a row. And all I am saying is he is missing my point. If you invest a said amount but do recover your investment after one press. Say for exemple the 6&8 for 18 ea. Press to 30 ea. Then collect. You recovered 35 on 36 and have 1$ at risk. While still losing 1$ to a 7, you win 35 to the next 6 or 8, so you can combine 10 combos against 6 for the seven. And have a +ev play. That was my point all along.

Now I know he will say they are separeted events and you need to play the first bet before, blabla...but what I'm thinking is: when I get 2-3 hits on 6&8 early, I am golden. I can start my system up and play on said "house money"...or like I rather call it, "profits".

And I know for a fact I can repeat targetted number more then expected. And switch out those numbers by modifing my set to make another targetted number. But that is me, does it apply to most? I don't think it is so frequent. At least three Casinos I play modded their tables following a series of wins I've had. And I got kicked out of two vegas casinos...I am confident on my throw.

Base of my strategy is to spread and press to get more combos working against the seven paying me and recovering my investments while raising my positions for the next rolls to come.

I love come bet protection as well, but I only use it on choppy sessions.

[220Inside]

This thread has been hijacked so severely that I'm not sure what to do with it anymore. Keep going, I guess, guys.

[House of Orange]

Or make popcorn like TO recommended so many years ago!

[220Inside]

I know, I know. Irish is ^%#hole.

Irish, thanks for the right level of knowledge and snark that you bring to these discussions. Much respect for those that can do both as opposed to just one, which you do in spades. The others are the real ^%#holes of which you speak.

[heavy]

From my point of view, I see Irish blasting of strategies based on the HE / HA excuse. Saying you need to have your bet paid for before you start pressing because you MIGHT get a few short rolls in a row. And all I am saying is he is missing my point. If you invest a said amount but do recover your investment after one press. Say for exemple the 6&8 for 18 ea. Press to 30 ea. Then collect. You recovered 35 on 36 and have 1$ at risk. While still losing 1$ to a 7, you win 35 to the next 6 or 8, so you can combine 10 combos against 6 for the seven. And have a +ev play. That was my point all along.

On what percent of random hands can you expect to see two hits on the six, the eight, or the six and eight?

[DanF]

Ok I'm done gettin bashed on that one, have a good day.

I already posted pictures in the past of my results on a fully random app over 2 years of testing...if it's not enough for you, so be it.

I sincerely don't care that you bitch.

Maybe your grinding style works for you...
Have it your way, I'll keep it up my way.

[skasower]

I saw a little movie once with a character named the Dominator. That guy could toss any number he wanted to toss every time. He was amazing. Anyhow, this guy, the Dominator could not turn a -EV game to a +EV game. However, he could have hopped the 9s and hit the nines all day long. He failed to turn that bet into a +EV but man-o-man he would have been able to make piles of money.

I did not believe that there was such a character as this Dominator, but his capability is a good parable for why -EV games remain no matter what your successful outcome is from your toss: random with lucky variance (ha ha ha) or absolute accurate and dependable dice influencing (ha ha ha).

skasower, can't snark like Irish but I love the lessons Dr. Irish takes the time to teach us and I chuckle all the way through the read...priceless!

[heavy]

Chip Chart.jpg (109 KiB) Viewed 17132 times

Okay, I'm going to take you to the opening 10 minutes of my seminar. It's all the math you need to know about random craps and dice control.

You've seen some sort of chart in every craps book you've ever read that had a portion of this layout on it. It shows the odds of each number rolling, starting with the 2 on the left and ending with the 12 on the right. One way to roll the 2, two ways to roll the 3, three ways to roll the 4, four ways to roll the 5, five ways to roll the 6, six ways to roll the 7, five ways to roll the 8, four ways to roll the 9, three ways to roll the 10, two ways to roll the 11, and one way to roll the 12.

The red chip on the seven line up at position SIX is there because the seven should roll on average one roll in six. The red chip in position THREE is because the mean is just shy of four rolls. The red chip up at position EIGHT is because the average random hand is just a little over eight rolls. There's your random math.

Some random hands will run longer. Some random hands will be point-seven-outs. But over the long run - those are your numbers. Bank on it.

You'll see an additional red chips further up the line in position TEN. That represents the average hand of a player with a documented/proven SRR of 7.0. That means the DI with a proven edge can generally count on one to two additional rolls per hand. Period.

Where DI's get in trouble is that they step up to the table with the expectation that every hand is going to be in the twenties, thirties, or greater. Yes, those hands happen. They happen for randies as well. They are typically aberrations. Yes, DI's probably have more of those kinds of hands than randies. But I'm of the opinion that on a bad day - DI's also tend to have more short hands due to double pitch issues they haven't worked out on their practice tables. Just my opinion but I'm sticking to it until someone proves me wrong.

So what's the long and short of this? I don't care who you are, you'd best come up with a strategy that will put a profit in the rack within the first eight rolls at the minimum when betting on a DI. As for betting on a random roller - I don't think you can count on more than three to four rolls on most of them and the smarter approach for most players is to play the Don'ts or to use a hybrid play that combines a Don't Pass or Don't Come with some sort of Place Action that offers an initial hedge effect with a quick profit opportunity similar to One Hit - Can't Miss. In other words - grind out a small profit on Randy while looking for an opportunity for a greater profit if he catches a hand. Meanwhile, put your major action on DI's or YOURSELF, assuming you are playing with a verified positive EV. Yeah, there's that term again.

Now back to "old Heavy." Do I think it's possible for a grinder to play this game long run and play it profitably? Yes. If you have rock-ribbed discipline and the right approach. Do I think there are many players out there who can and are doing that? Damned few. I did it for about a 10 year stretch in the late 90's to late 2000's. These days, with my more aggressive style of play - not so much. When I win I have HUGE wins. But when I lose - well, not so much. I still limit what I wager on Randy. But I still bet on Randy - to my diminution. As I tell students in the classes - do as I say, not as I do.

[DanF]

Chip Chart.jpg

Okay, I'm going to take you to the opening 10 minutes of my seminar. It's all the math you need to know about random craps and dice control.

You've seen some sort of chart in every craps book you've ever read that had a portion of this layout on it. It shows the odds of each number rolling, starting with the 2 on the left and ending with the 12 on the right. One way to roll the 2, two ways to roll the 3, three ways to roll the 4, four ways to roll the 5, five ways to roll the 6, six ways to roll the 7, five ways to roll the 8, four ways to roll the 9, three ways to roll the 10, two ways to roll the 11, and one way to roll the 12.

The red chip on the seven line up at position SIX is there because the seven should roll on average one roll in six. The red chip in position THREE is because the mean is just shy of four rolls. The red chip up at position EIGHT is because the average random hand is just a little over eight rolls. There's your random math.

Some random hands will run longer. Some random hands will be point-seven-outs. But over the long run - those are your numbers. Bank on it.

You'll see an additional red chips further up the line in position TEN. That represents the average hand of a player with a documented/proven SRR of 7.0. That means the DI with a proven edge can generally count on one to two additional rolls per hand. Period.

Where DI's get in trouble is that they step up to the table with the expectation that every hand is going to be in the twenties, thirties, or greater. Yes, those hands happen. They happen for randies as well. They are typically aberrations. Yes, DI's probably have more of those kinds of hands than randies. But I'm of the opinion that on a bad day - DI's also tend to have more short hands due to double pitch issues they haven't worked out on their practice tables. Just my opinion but I'm sticking to it until someone proves me wrong.

So what's the long and short of this? I don't care who you are, you'd best come up with a strategy that will put a profit in the rack within the first eight rolls at the minimum when betting on a DI. As for betting on a random roller - I don't think you can count on more than three to four rolls on most of them and the smarter approach for most players is to play the Don'ts or to use a hybrid play that combines a Don't Pass or Don't Come with some sort of Place Action that offers an initial hedge effect with a quick profit opportunity similar to One Hit - Can't Miss. In other words - grind out a small profit on Randy while looking for an opportunity for a greater profit if he catches a hand. Meanwhile, put your major action on DI's or YOURSELF, assuming you are playing with a verified positive EV. Yeah, there's that term again.

Now back to "old Heavy." Do I think it's possible for a grinder to play this game long run and play it profitably? Yes. If you have rock-ribbed discipline and the right approach. Do I think there are many players out there who can and are doing that? Damned few. I did it for about a 10 year stretch in the late 90's to late 2000's. These days, with my more aggressive style of play - not so much. When I win I have HUGE wins. But when I lose - well, not so much. I still limit what I wager on Randy. But I still bet on Randy - to my diminution. As I tell students in the classes - do as I say, not as I do.

Love this post Heavy, damn right strait to the point of what I was saying. Never have one single plan for everything, manage your bankroll to outlast the bad runs and hit homeruns on good runs.

Its the Secret of any gambling....

Anybody saying they don't get in a casino to gamble...get lost. We're all gamblers, but some manage their bankroll, tilt less and don't choke when it's time to push some chips forward.
Others grind and think it'll even out, truth is...longuer you're in there, worst it is for you.

[heavy]

This reminds me somewhat of the discussions I used to have with Stanford Wong regarding this very subject. I understand perfectly that the dice have no memory and that with every toss in a random game there's a one in six chance the seven will show. I know the odds "reset" with every toss. But I also understand that there's a barrier out there somewhere where the hand ends, and this is something he would never concur with. Why? I think it was because it was essentially incalculable. You cannot put a definite number on it. If we were talking about two cars racing down the street - one at 60 miles per hour and one at 70 miles per hour - with a brick wall dead ahead - you could calculate how many seconds it would be before which car both won and lost that race. But at craps you can't put a number on exactly when the hand will end. Nevertheless, you must concur that it IS going to end eventually and that statistically, if you assume the hand started at roll one and statistically, when you look hundreds of thousands of hands, you'll come up with something very close to the model I presented, that's how those hands will play out, then you at least have some grasp of what you are dealing with - whether or not you agree with it from a pure mathematical sense. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

brick wall.jpg (64 KiB) Viewed 17080 times

[heavy]

...my point is if you understand and properly interpret the math, you'll not find yourself speeding toward a brick wall. You'll have given yourself plenty of time to brake and continue on your profitability journey. (I'm taking your analogy and running with it.) If you understand the basics of physics and have a general sense of weight/mass, acceleration, speed and distance etc, devising the proper braking needed before running out of space is not that difficult. If you know nothing about physics, then yes, most certainly you'll run into a brick wall whether you're traveling 70 or 60 or 20 mph. The end result is not incumbent on a high rate of speed if you know nothing. You could know a little about physics, but if you're traveling at a rate of speed that exceeds your knowledge, then you're also likely to meet the wall. This describes most DI's. Losing at craps is easy (hitting the brick wall). The less you understand the math, the probability of hitting the wall increases. Cause/Effect. Winning at craps (safely steering away from brick wall) takes effort and knowledge.

This is a fine explanation of what I was trying to explain to Wong all of those years ago. Of course, I was unsuccessful because he was and always will be a math purist. Which plays to the heart of why we had so many arguments like this back in the "math boy days" of the newsgroups and rec.gambling.craps - where everyone THOUGHT they were math purists when, in fact, about all they could do were a few odds calculations and spew a lot of contempt filled drivel.

[memo]

I am unsure there can ever be a real balance in the conversation above due to favored approaches.
That being said, the last few posts illustrate solid explanation and thoughtful layout of the thought process involved..
I understand the chip photo better...I really like the examples Irish uses to make a point..Refreshing since I get bogged down in the math.

I am only sorry it had to happen on 22I's thread, however, I am thinking he doesn't mind since it came to such a fine point.

I really appreciate and encourage this type of discussion. It reenforces and or changes my direction of thinking...Irish grounds me and Heavy makes me look at things with a little different slant...

Memo

[220Inside]

There is some real good info in here, though I am really sorry it had to come at the expense of hijacking the original post to the point where it has pretty much lost all of its original purpose.

[heavy]

There was an original post? LOL.

Sorry about that. Sometimes you just can't keep your mouth shut (our your fingers from banging on the keyboard).

You know, a skilled moderator could split this topic, take all of the off topic posts and create a new topic out of them and move them into another sub board if they wanted to. Yeah, I'm supposed to know how to do that. Most of my attempts to do so have resulted in disaster.

[220Inside]

Yeah, at one point I looked into trying to split out the posts into a separate topic, but gave up on it for several reasons.

[slt1966]

So what's the long and short of this? I don't care who you are, you'd best come up with a strategy that will put a profit in the rack within the first eight rolls at the minimum when betting on a DI. As for betting on a random roller - I don't think you can count on more than three to four rolls on most of them and the smarter approach for most players is to play the Don'ts or to use a hybrid play that combines a Don't Pass or Don't Come with some sort of Place Action that offers an initial hedge effect with a quick profit opportunity similar to One Hit - Can't Miss. In other words - grind out a small profit on Randy while looking for an opportunity for a greater profit if he catches a hand. Meanwhile, put your major action on DI's or YOURSELF, assuming you are playing with a verified positive EV.

Priceless info.

[slowdriver]

Thanks for posting 22inside good thread, i have had some success with a $96 across and then reducing, like everything it works good when it works and it's awful when it doesn't. i can remember one session where it went pso 4 times in a row! That was pretty much pretty it for me. Sometimes at the table i say to myself during a hand oh wow mini mp204 woulda worked good here!

[stingray]

Rather than having someone say something doesn't hold water and take this thread off its course by using facts to back up their opinion to make it stronger so others can't refute their mathematical logic...

Would it not be better to give examples of your betting sequence and why?

Danf had a simple explanation which was nice.

So Irish how do you play the inside?

$15 five and nine for one hit and regress the five and nine down to ten a piece so you have a whole dollar of profit with paid action. This is how I saw you play.

You, MD and myself all lost money at the M resort with our brilliant betting methods. It is called gambling and anything can and does happen. It is not a sure thing.

Irish you are a great person.

Rather than using mathematical proof to make others look stupid and prove they don't know squat about math why don't you show us how brilliant you are in your inside betting strategy and prove why it works so everyone can try it out and verify you are a math genius.

To many this is really the only proof that is required.

How do I come home with the money?
Discipline for many is the real reason they don't stay in the plus side after many outings. So let's presume an individual does have the discipline.

Also before you bombard me with your math logic and belittle my statements why don't you just show everyone how you make money at this game.

Nobody is really interested in your ramblings to back up your statements. There is good solid math in there though.

I know you only like small house advantage bets that you can hopefully overcome that are below 2-4%. PL, odds and maybe a small wager on the inside which will be close to minimum so you stay within your Kelly so you don't lose too much.

How are you going to play when the kids are out of college and have no financial obligations and the mortgages are paid and you a big nest egg saved and now you have a dedicated $100000 to gamble with. You are doing this solely to make money and quadruple your money asap.

If your betting and math is so powerful then your small scale blueprint for everyone should be able to be scaled larger with a larger bankroll and also work.

Gambling is gambling and you do not like risk.

If you write anything other than answers to my questions you will be ignored. So write whatever makes you temporarily happy and hopefully lay out your plan that everyone can replicate. So write your opus that everyone will remember you by.