22Inside's Betting Evolution

[220Inside]

Oh boy. I really don't want to rip the band-aid off on this one again...

[heavy]

I almost posted that you needed a more significant monument - then I noticed that if you stared at that one long enough you could almost see the image of an Irishsetter staring at you through the stains in the concrete. Weird.

[skasower]

And I hear at mid-night up from those tattered graves comes the spirits of Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal to haunt those who believe in magical thinking and who deny the existence of probability theory and its application to games.

[Mattyboyywonder]

you can also see where you're at from bets as you can see...most hands don't pass 3-4 hits, so you should plan to collect third.

Ya think? What is the percentage of hands that get to three paying hits? 4? What is the percentage of hands that get to 0 paying hits? or 1?

An inside set of bets (whether you intend to regress or not) requires slightly MORE than three hits to pay for itself. So, if you're trying to get three hits before regressing, you will not profit until that regressed, 4th hit. Four inside hits. Think about that. Then, as I asked above, tell me the percentage of hands thrown that get to four hits. No one is talking about recovery. How many winning hands (ie: you got to 4 hits or more), will it take to overcome one, just one, fully losing hand where you got no hits? Which of these things is MOST likely to happen? A PSO or PPSO with no paying hits or a hand that gets to 4 hits? By the way, if you consider an earlier regression, you have to go through some of the same calculations. $110 inside, regressed after one hit sounds fantastic, right? How many two hit, or three hit hands would you need to pay for one full loss?

I know, I know. Irish is ^%#hole.

This is exactly what I’ve noticed as a new player in that many of the strategies (especially large regression) lack an ability to recover from even a mild PSO or PPSO streak. The statement was to (constructively) criticize another person’s strategy but what I’d like to know is what strategy actually fits this line of thinking? In my reading I don’t think I’ve seen it.

[stingray]

Getting specifics on how Irish would proceed in his betting is don't gamble since he did not follow the perimeters outlined in the question.
11% without going near a table in the last few months is good. I guess I really am smarter than Irish since my return was actually bigger! Mine is bigger, longer, smarter and better is utter nonsense. Just because someone believes they are more financially prudent or took some extra math classes does not make them smarter or wiser. Academically they could argue this with their credentials but in reality they just memorized some things in a specific area so they can mask their ignorance of other things they know nothing about.
I know enough individuals with a PhD and many aren't any smarter than an average person.
Making judgements and comparisons and continuously pointing out others shortcomings is the cause of all suffering. Causes health problems too.

[stingray]

I know the come bets have some beneficial aspects throughout the game but if you have a couple come bets established and the point gets made, do you try to hedge the flat portion of the come bets in any way for the CO?

[Mattyboyywonder]

This is a question with infinite answers. If someone tells you they have the answer, their recommendation is likely to be total nonsense. The answer depends on bankroll, frequency of play, risk aversion, player utility etc. etc.

When I'm shooting, my preference, since I prefer to keep the HA within a reasonable range, but also like the flexibility of place bets, is to play a place to come to place to come (ad infinitum) mutant strategy. I usually only start with a place 6/8 and make a couple of come bets. If come bets return, I'll usually place that number back and come bet again. This will reduce the per roll HA a bit. Sometimes I'll just make come bets. Sometimes I'll place the 6/8 and neither progress or regress them. I'm not married to a specific strategy, but I try to abide by a general philosophy which is to not create a scenario where the combined HA on the wagers is not insurmountable, and that my total wagers I've made do not exceed the Kelly limits that I've set for myself.

If you'd like to discuss recovery rates of wagers or sets of wagers, that's also some interesting stuff.

Helpful response, I wish I knew more about the math of it all especially how long the recovery of a 7 wipe out would take with 4 numbers placed but overall sounds similar to Heavy's Heat Seeker.

The way I’ve been messing around is with the 6&8 at $48 each ($96 total). The 1st hit you collect $56 which leaves $40 at risk. The 2nd hit you collect $56 and drop down to $18 each ($36 total) which leaves a $76 profit. The 3rd hit you collect $21 which leaves a profit of $97. I feel like this matches the ethos of the paragraph that I commented on in that I’m looking for the lowest amount of hits and rolls not to just play with house money but also to recover on past losses.

I found an old MP post that says I've got about a 25% shot of hitting the 6 or 8 three times before the 7. Based on the above, three hits gets me back 101% profit on my initial outlay. For me to lose my initial outlay (0 hits) the 7 has to show up prior to a 6 or 8 which occurs about a 37.5% of the time so like every play in craps I have a negative expectation.

To my newbie mind, that is not terrible and with a little variance I can walk home with some profit. Two questions:

1) Is my newbie mind off base?
2) Is there something that can be added to this play to tighten it up? (i.e. DP, DC or Come bets)

[DarthNater]

I almost posted that you needed a more significant monument - then I noticed that if you stared at that one long enough you could almost see the image of an Irishsetter staring at you through the stains in the concrete. Weird.

Oh? I stared too, and thought that was John Wick pinching off a round from his trusty Heckler & Koch P30L.......

DN8R

[DanF]

Funny Irish how you say you are smarter then everyone else, critic any suggestions but never give a damn clue how you think is best. Just go with the same old...math says you're an idiot. But math is complex and multi level...of course they have House edge built on the payouts. They have statistics for long run probabilities. But I've seen it with my eyes many times...there are events in the probabilities of variance. And some seem to vary it more then others...now you can disagree, you can call it gambler's fallacy all you want. I personally will take a gamble on it...call me a gambler, I am, but anybody putting a dime on a table is.

[220Inside]

Sigh....I have to keep checking whether we're on Facebook or the APC forums.

[heavy]

Oh, I think I got the gist of Dan's post well enough.

It's funny. I saw a post by that idiot Garrison promoting his Platinum Craps book on Facebook this morning (PLEASE do not buy this huckster's book, folks. I cannot emphasize that enough). He was attempting to argue casino math versus gambling math and even stranger, was actually attempting to post mathematical calculations (and failing miserably at it) in his post. Worse than that, his calculations were incorrect. But I won't go into that. His point was to compare the odds of a Come Bet with Free Odds on a point of five or nine versus a Place bet on the Five or Nine - with the Pay Off on same bets. He was using the 3-4-5X odds game in his example. A $10 Come bet with $40 odds paid $70. A $50 Place bet paid $70. His argument was that although the "casino odds" were different, the "gambler" odds were the same. Both bets paid $70, so you were better off Placing the five or nine. He completely ignored the $10 Come Bet winners on the 7 or 11. Now, I'm not a huge fan of Come betting, but if you're going to make an explanation of the two bets to prove a point you simply cannot eliminate a major element of one of the bet simply because it serves to prove your point. Now, on the flip side, you have player control over the Place Bet and can take it down or turn it off. But you ALSO have player control over your Free Odds bet and can take it down or turn it off.

On another thread old Garrison talked about his version of the Five Count, where you play a Don't Pass bet and leave it up for the Five Count. If the player gets past the Five Count you TAKE THE DP BET DOWN and Place the numbers. WTF? I challenged him on this and explained the payoffs on Placing every point that the DP might be established on to guarantee a WIN. Crickets from Garrison. This guy needed to READ a book on craps before writing a book on craps. But the sad fact is he's decided to exploit his relationship with John Patrick to wrangle an endorsement out of him and is leveraging that to sell his bullshit. It's a complete disgrace.

And now I've once again hijacked 22inside's betting evolution thread.

Just know your ADVANTAGE and bet it, guys. Practice practice practice, be well bankrolled, size your bets right and play with discipline. Know when it's not working and walk away to play another day. That's all it takes.

[220Inside]

Oh, I think I got the gist of Dan's post well enough.

It's funny. I saw a post by that idiot Garrison promoting his Platinum Craps book on Facebook this morning (PLEASE do not buy this huckster's book, folks. I cannot emphasize that enough). He was attempting to argue casino math versus gambling math and even stranger, was actually attempting to post mathematical calculations (and failing miserably at it) in his post. Worse than that, his calculations were incorrect. But I won't go into that. His point was to compare the odds of a Come Bet with Free Odds on a point of five or nine versus a Place bet on the Five or Nine - with the Pay Off on same bets. He was using the 3-4-5X odds game in his example. A $10 Come bet with $40 odds paid $70. A $50 Place bet paid $70. His argument was that although the "casino odds" were different, the "gambler" odds were the same. Both bets paid $70, so you were better off Placing the five or nine. He completely ignored the $10 Come Bet winners on the 7 or 11. Now, I'm not a huge fan of Come betting, but if you're going to make an explanation of the two bets to prove a point you simply cannot eliminate a major element of one of the bet simply because it serves to prove your point. Now, on the flip side, you have player control over the Place Bet and can take it down or turn it off. But you ALSO have player control over your Free Odds bet and can take it down or turn it off.

On another thread old Garrison talked about his version of the Five Count, where you play a Don't Pass bet and leave it up for the Five Count. If the player gets past the Five Count you TAKE THE DP BET DOWN and Place the numbers. WTF? I challenged him on this and explained the payoffs on Placing every point that the DP might be established on to guarantee a WIN. Crickets from Garrison. This guy needed to READ a book on craps before writing a book on craps. But the sad fact is he's decided to exploit his relationship with John Patrick to wrangle an endorsement out of him and is leveraging that to sell his bullshit. It's a complete disgrace.

And now I've once again hijacked 22inside's betting evolution thread.

Just know your ADVANTAGE and bet it, guys. Practice practice practice, be well bankrolled, size your bets right and play with discipline. Know when it's not working and walk away to play another day. That's all it takes.

I've seen his recent posts too and I just have to bang my head against the wall when I see him or one of his sock puppets crawl out from whatever rock he hides under. I've called him out so many times on the BS he posts, that I just can't do it anymore. I'd love to see Irish tear into him, now that would be entertaining

Hmmmm....If I continue the hijack of a thread, am I really hijacking it if it's my thread to begin with?

[Moe Bettor]

Nick's betting revolution. Since there was..way back in this thread..a question re: betting. I know there was. I'm pretty sure there was..Was there?
You want a sure thing bet? Ok. Here is a sure thing bet. All you have to is make sure that you are shooting and you do not throw the sheriff or
the deputy on $190 DP. If you can make a number you cannot lose thereafter. You will always win. A 4 is thrown. You buy the four for $150. You will
either win $40 or $297-$190. Place the 6 and 8 for $180. You figure it out. Place 5 or 9 for $160. Thank you. Please don't sell this. Or if you do..mail me a check.

[Moe Bettor]

Makes no sense. Something about a mystery for one's self and a denial of one's capabilities as a writer. It could also mean "How did I get a seven
when when one die is all 3's?" But that would be a Kardassian translation. Yes..Picard also had problems with the Kardassians. Especially Kimmy.

[Big O]

Hmmmm....If I continue the hijack of a thread, am I really hijacking it if it's my thread to begin with?

i think you should get a star for starting one of the more volatile and all encompassing threads on the forum.

[slt1966]

Undoubtedly. But only a couple of people here know that from experience. I'm fun, funny, generous and loyal to a fault, and expect these things in return, which means I have a relatively small, hilarious and reliable group of friends.

Happy to call you my friend Irish

[Parson]

Oh, I think I got the gist of Dan's post well enough.
(remainder snipped to save space)

If you got all of that out Dan's post, you should be a translator at SETI.

Translate this for us? (It's Klingon)

"vaj jIHvaD pegh vIghajbe', 'ej nge'wI' je jIHbe' je.?"

Something along the lines of, If I have no secret for me, and I am not as passionate

ghu'vam dun'e' ghIlghameS, Dujvo' puS. Hoch jaj boQwI'pu'

[DarthNater]

Using my best Jim Mora impression...... Klingon? Klingon?

Stick with The Force, brah.........

[skasower]

My Farengi associate speaks Klingon and tells me the exact translation is: "Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like bananas." Sorry 22Inside!

[220Inside]

My Farengi associate speaks Klingon and tells me the exact translation is: "Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like bananas." Sorry 22Inside!

That's ok. The original purpose of this thread is long dead at this point. I'll probably never attempt another one of these types of "evolutionary" posts again. As I've heard from time to time, It is what it is...