The One Count

[Bankerdude80]

One-count on randies = good. One-count on DIs = bad.

exactly.

Now in theory, I think I understand this. In some of the seminars, some coaches advocate for the one count on one's self.
If one is comfortable with their own DI skills and as part of their volatility management program, they decide to go with a
one count or a two count for that matter, what is the harm ?

Am I interpreting the quote above correctly? A DI with a proven advantage does not benefit from using a one count or a
two count on themselves because they would be one or two hits behind on any profitable tossing results that are generated.
They can, however, benefit from its use on occasion as a form of volatility management with the goal of PSO or PPSO avoidance.

Also, when betting on other shooters at the table that are known DI's, the principle is basically the same.

Is that the jist of it ?

[heavy]

Okay, let me toss out a scenario and you tell me what you'd do. You're a stranger in a strange town - or maybe not. Perhaps you're in your regular casino but they've just changed the layouts on the tables. Or maybe it's just been three or four months since you've tossed the dice in live action. You have a few butterflies in your stomach. The first toss of the dice is a freebie. Even a random roll is in your favor. More chances of tossing a natural winner than a craps loser. And if neither of those things happen you establish a point. Hey, it's a free shot. So you establish a point of nine. Now it's time to make a decision. You bought in for $1000 and you're inclination is to take max odds behind the nine and Place $85 inside - a wager your bankroll should support okay. The question is - under any of the above circumstances do you Place the $85 inside immediately and take max odds - do you Place a smaller amount - say $12 six and eight plus double odds - or do you just put odds only for the first toss to see if you get past the new layout - new table - or lay-off jitters? Personally, I like to toss the dice a time or two and see how my shot is looking before going in with the larger bet.

[London Shooter]

Heavy, would you continue to use the "one count" (or similar) on subsequent hands, or would you only use it that first time as you settle in and see how your throw is going?

[freak]

Personally, I like to toss the dice a time or two and see how my shot is looking before going in with the larger bet.

This makes perfect sense to me. An exception built into your standard play under specific conditions. First toss of the weekend is probably a great time to ease into the game with a one count. Of course you might toss a nice little hand right out of the gate and miss it. In the short term anything can happen. I remember one session where we decided to just toss a few hands to see how the dice were behaving and keep the pressure off. We tossed mid teen hands, twice each, with only a PL bet. Third hand comes around and now I feel confident and warmed up. Set a point. Place 6&8 and odds. PSO. Crap. As long as you except that anything can happen short term, intentionally choosing to bet lighter at the start of a trip/session is a reasonable way to protect the bankroll and the nerves.

What I've been trying to share on this topic is my realization that sometimes a play that is a good idea in one circumstance does not make it a good play to use consistently. If you are shooting with an advantage, missing the first profitable roll and first step towards pressing will hurt your long term profits.

For example...I used to place a craps check on every come out roll. I wasn't doing it to control volatility, I believed that I was making more money by placing that bet. I thought that my timing of only betting it on the CO cause it to be a finantially sound decision. When I started tracking rolls and analyzing my data I realized I would actually make more profit if I DID NOT place the craps check. Seeing this first hand I finally realized what the experts meant when they said that hedges don't work in the long run. It's fun to get paid $28 on a CO 2, and another $56 when it's followed by a 12, but at the end of the weekend those constant $3 bets cost me more than the occasional win. So I decided to stop the slow drain of the craps check and just take my lumps and trust it would all work out in the end. It stings now when I roll craps three times in a row on a CO, but I'm content knowing that overall I'll have more money at the end of the weekend if I don't place a CO craps check.

I do still make an occasional craps check under a specific condition. When my bankroll is approaching loss-limit I'm in a short-term position where I can't afford to lose $30 on a bad CO series. So I'll make an exception and place a craps check. At this point I have to control volatility if I hope to save this session. It's worth $3 to be sure I can keep playing. The same play that I know is bad long term becomes an important tool for the short term under this condition.

I think there is a parallel here to the one-count. Like any play, it could win or lose on this next roll. But overall, it is not a "winning" play. I think we tend to notice the extremes of a session. The PSO is really noticeable for obvious reasons. Our brain tries to problem-solve. "If I miss PSOs I make more money!!" Winning on the first roll after establishing the point is not so noticeable. Unless we actually do the math we don't notice that for a DI, all those first roll wins add up to MORE than PSO losses. If we only react to the extremes we can be fooled into believing something that is not true. What I see in the math is this: If you toss a winning session you will win more if you do not use the one-count. If you toss a losing session, you will lose less if you use the one count. In the short term, the one-count could have no effect or push results significantly in one direction or the other. So, are you playing to win or to not lose? Or do you play aggressively at first and then defensively once ahead?

All I'm trying to point out is I think it's important for DIs to be in touch with the REASON we do the things we do at the table. If you feel uncomfortable to leave your bets on after the dice go off the table, then turn off. If it makes you feel more comfortable to use the one-count a few times a night or every single hand then do it. Just be in touch with the fact that the underlying reason is mental attitude, not gross profitability. The one-count doesn't prevent a big quick loss, it just moves the potential for that to happen one roll further into the hand. Play in your own comfort zone. Just know that if you have a proven edge, that edge will show more profit over the long run without any one, two or three-counts.

[dwmm]

It is just so disturbing to see PSO's clumps, it just kills the psyche and are more frequent lately, cheating dice?. I say just bet pass-low odds to start the new shooter, then expand out on rolled and sister for place betting until get number of bets you want out there. Yes you miss some hits and maybe it does not help overall in lifetime play, but it will save your sanity with the all too common cold spells.

[Americraps]

you can expand the one count to mean one entire hand. Whether in practice or in casino, once in a blue moon my first hand is a winner, sometimes a monster even, but I would say 90% of my first hands are losers. Casually oberving other DIs, I would say that this is normal. Whether its nerves, not being warmed up, needing to adjust to the table, adreneline, having people watching you- whatever it is, I think I would be way better off if I didn't bet squat on that first hand.

[heavy]

In my case, on that first toss I'm looking for an expected (or at least logical) result based on the set used. If I end up with a trash number then I may wait another roll before putting much action out there. Trash numbers don't pay me anyway. I know, I could toss out a one-roll Field bet, right? Riiiiiiiggggghhhhhhhhttttttt. Not likely.

[SHOOTITALL]

There is this: After setting the point, take no odds, put out a come bet. A PSO is a wash. First toss, the come bet travels, guaranteed either to a number or the bank or your rack. Now, you should feel better about not skipping the first toss.

[acpa]

SIA,

Come bet could be a craps number so not a guaranteed winner.

Noah

[Bankerdude80]

Personally, I like to toss the dice a time or two and see how my shot is looking before going in with the larger bet.

As a Stranger in a Strange Land (Heinlein) err town, I have to agree. I would rather dip my toe in the pool to test the
temperature rather than take an immediate plunge. I like the idea of testing the waters by putting some action on the
table, but not everything. On a good roll, there will be time for that. I think the game of craps is a combination of
art and science.

There can't always be hard and fast rules, we need to be able to adapt to conditions and act accordingly. Whether that is
using a one count, walking away, limping out with our bets, etc. Since most of us do not have an unlimited bankroll, there
will always be trade-offs in the choices we make while playing. Hopefully, most of those choices will be made to our advantage.

[SHOOTITALL]

Acpa: It was a factious point. The bet is guaranteed to travel, not win. With a craps, it travels to the bank. A yo, it travels to your rack. A point number, it travels there.

[Bankerdude80]

Wow. I wasn't even a twinkle in my daddy's eye when that was recorded.

[heavy]

That was one of the few songs Ricky recorded that the family (go ahead, say Ozzie) didn't own the rights to. The story goes that Ozzie tried to talk Rickie out of recording it for that reason. He liked to make ALL the money on Ricky's hits. But Ricky insisted on recording the song - written by songwriter Jerry Fuller and produced by Joe Johnson, who also produced the Champs (Tequila) back in the day. Yeah, when I was a kid I wanted to be Ricky. A shame his life ended as it did.

[heavy]

A little "Bump" for the Heavy Famous One Count Strategy. LOL.

[wild child]

At times there are sessions when
a World aka: Whirl wager at Table Minimal
contributes to starting your casino adventure
on a comfortable footing.

just me saying
w c

[memo]

I believe the one count, as a blanket move (every time a point is established), is little more than a variance dampener. I also believe that a lot of our fear of the first toss is due to selective memory. All that said, I still believe it to be an effective tool if applied effectively, and selectively.

By that I mean knowing your toss characteristics. Not only from hours on endless hours of practice, but there are charts in BT that can give insight into how important the one count may be for you. One not having faith in BT at this point with all the recent information has been in Covid hibernation.

Wether you are doing the one count, or famous gaming author's five count....The very next toss, becomes the one count for you. So for the one count, the PPSO becomes a PSO...Frankly I see little difference in either of them. (PSO, PPSO) They are frequent and have nearly the same impact. Looking at the 'RBS Rolls Between Sevens' chart, this frequency of short hands should come at no surprise. However, missing one hit on a three hit regression could be devastating.
**Ugh! The devil showing on the sixth toss after point set is PSO for five count learned author. This makes my head hurt!

I guess I am saying that planning there will be a certain number of short hands, and of course, working to minimize their occurrence makes much more sense than going off for a roll each time a point is established.

Memo

[Operator]

If you worry about a pso 25 dollar pass line followed by 25 dollar come bet no odds on the pass line ala rappin captain ex odds come betting system. Ps hope you get pass six rolls. Their are holes in every system