NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2020

[DarthNater]

Every house seems to tinker with their teaser payouts. MGM is the worse. Ceasars was bad too but seem to now have adopted the William Hill payouts

6pt 2 legs: 20/23; 3 legs 8/5

Best to look them up to be sure

DN8R

[DarthNater]

Well its Super Bowl time

Yes went to the Westgate yesterday for the 40 pages of props, a free lunch and $30 of free slot play

Since I have a standing rule for not teasing Totals, this game is all about discerning the right side. In the Championship games, I used the in game wagering to correct for an initial GB lay and got TB-4.5; plus when BUF got ahead 9-0, the books set the in game line M/L at KC +120 - that was the fastest bet in my history.

In my ranking I have KC as -7 over TB on a neutral field; however since its at TB with 25,000 fans, I deducted 2 for home field giving KC -5. Five is a dead number even in this era of 2 point conversions, so I make it KC -3

I've read a lot this week on what the experts are saying; and keep coming back to a modified strategy based something David Bearman (ESPN Deputy Sports Betting Editor) concocted for last year and reusing this year. I had similar bets last year as well, so our wave lengths must be aligning.

Last year and this year, I'm leaning KC to Win, but also want to make a few $$ should TB be able to find a way to win a close one. Here the plays I have to go after that:

KC (victory margin 7-12) + 350 for a pizza
TB M/L + 145 for two pizzas
KC - 3 -120 for three pizzas
TB (victory margin 1-6) for a pizza
KC - 7.5 +180 for a pizza

I don't like the hook on that last one, but as its a prop, I can't buy it down to seven. So if KC wins by 8 its +480 for me. IF TB wins by 6, its +140 (basically a push with the money line; but if it lands exactly on KC -3 then its - 500 - however there is a hedge prop for game margin exactly 3 that pays +370 so for 1.5 pizzas this all becomes a push.

That's my initial setup for sunday, I'm sure after the first score we will see a +150 line move depending on the circumstances, so will be watching with pizzas ready to jump on that.

There are also some fun props like the Doink bet at +370, but it has to be a miss on a FG not a PAT; as well as Overtime +800 and a Safety +800; +1200 if you want to pick a half.

Anyway, grab some nachos and salsa, enjoy the game, DN8R

[wild child]

Players, fans must respect COVID-19 danger for safe Super ...
[Search domain www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2021/02/04/ ... 19-danger-

A barber's positive Covid-19 test causes scare for the ...
[Search domain www.wfsb.com/news/a-barbers-positive-co ... _id=995300] https://www.wfsb.com/news/a-barbers-pos ... _id=995300
The Chiefs got a Covid-19 scare a week before the Super Bowl when it was learned that a barber giving members of the organization haircuts had tested positive for Covid-19, according to multiple ...
Over 20 Chiefs players, staffers nearly exposed to COVID ...
[Search domain chiefswire.usatoday.com/2021/02/03/kansas-city-chiefs-covid-19-positive-barber-super-bowl-lv-patrick-mahomes/] https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2021/02 ... k-mahomes/
..
[Search domain www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/02/0 ... re-barber/] https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2 ... re-barber/
1 day ago about 20 Chiefs players and staffers, a group thought to include quarterback Patrick Mahomes, were supposed to get haircuts last weekend by a barber who tested positive for the coronavirus.

[DarthNater]

WC,
That was three days ago now. The NFL is testing the super bowl pool twice a day with no positives reported as of yet. The line has been KC -3 for a week now, so play on

DN8R

[House of Orange]

Mattress Mack back in the news. About $3.4 million on the Bucs.

[DarthNater]

Mattress Mack back in the news. About $3.4 million on the Bucs.

That’ll be a nice score at +145

[House of Orange]

There was another big bet last week reported, thinking $2.8 million on Bucs. Hope they know something we don’t know.

[Parson]

I would tend to pick the Bucs, but i grew up being an AFL kid ... only dime store bookies here so no bet is the smart bet

[DarthNater]

Well, the Bucs came thru

After the first two punts the In-game line had jumped to TB +180 as the books were in denial and it cost them four+ pizzas. Even at TB 14-6 TB was still positive action In-game until that crushing TD at the end of the first half. Even then they had KC -7.5 for the second half betting expecting a KC comeback that never materialized.

It was another fun year of football and a net increase in pizzas. See ya next year, DN8R