Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

If you are in the Chicago market, try teaming with $5Bill and follow his grind strategy. I think 250 successful days should get you back to even.

KrapsNovice wrote:
So "basics" whatever you mean by that is irrelevant. I lost twice within a span of a few days trying to make 80.00.

Basics are the foundation of any game or venture, in fact life is about basics (but this is another deal), you have to learn what makes the game tick, then go out and try to beat it. You need to study the game, see what the tables are willing to give, then make a decision on whether you want to grind or walk.

You need to manage your bankroll.

What I'm reading is, you walk into a casino, throw 1200.00 on the table to win 80.00 trying another persons system, without any regard for what's happening on the table. Dave doesn't seem to care how the table is running. He throws money at it until he wins his 200.00 or 300.00 dollars and walks. His rate of return is minimal for the outlay. He has the time to grind away until he has his walk away money or he looses. Apparently you don't. This has disaster written all over it.

You have determined your bankroll amount and your walk away amount. I haven't seen any mention of a cut loss amount and walk away. You mention you don't have time to stand and try to cover your losses, don't put your self in the position of having to do this. Put a stop limit on your session. When you hit the loss limit (and we all do), color up, walk away and lick your wounds. There's always another day.

I agree with FlextimeLV. Get with a player like $5Bill and look at his grind strategy. You need discipline before you can expect results. Otherwise, you will become another craps casualty.

My intent is not to be mean or uncaring about the situation. We all learn the hard way, I'm only trying to give a little insight on how to approach things.

DS

I actually have a Don't strategy (that I don't use because it's boring as hell) that typically gives you a $1 profit for every hand you play. But most people don't want to win $1. They want to win $100 or $1000. I have found that the easiest way to win $1000 is to bet $1000. That's also the easiest way to lose $1000. It is what it is.

Heavy, I'll take that $1 grind strategy for the Don't. Please advise.

Me, too. I want to know how to neutralize the sheriff and his deputy.

O.K flextimeLV, you ask for it.

How to win $1.00 grind strategy, Heavy nor i can garantee this system OR ANY OTHER SYSTEM.

you will be betting only on other shooters , YOU WILL NOT SHOOT THE DICE.

On the come out you will bet $6.00 dollars on the don't pass line.

If the come out number is the number 6, you will bet 6 dollars on that number.
If the come out number is the number 8, you will bet 6 dollars on that number.

If the come out number is the 4 or the 5 or 9 or the 10 then you bet 5 dollars on those numbers.

NOW lets do the Math on this system--
If the shooter makes the point 6 or the 8 you win $1.00 dollar.
If he seven out, you break even.

If the shooter makes the number 5 or 9, you win $1.00
If he seven out, you win $ 1.00

Now we come to the 4 and 10-- if the shooter makes the 4 or 10 , you win $3.00 dollars.
If he seven out, you win $ 1.00

Their is your system. again, good luck on the come out.

SYSTEM FOR SHOOTITALL: Shoot them between the eyes.

Dave was willing to stay and risk more of his bankroll when losing. When he did that he would also at times bet bigger. I have seen him play black and green. Never lays the 4 or 10. Gets whacked twice all odds are pulled leaving only flats. Oh yeah, last time I played at his table he was shooting the dice, which was a new twist. Random toss.

Personally I have a loss limit and keep it (mostly). These days I usually am dark on everyone but me.

Golfer wrote:Dave was willing to stay and risk more of his bankroll when losing. When he did that he would also at times bet bigger. I have seen him play black and green. Never lays the 4 or 10. Gets whacked twice all odds are pulled leaving only flats. Oh yeah, last time I played at his table he was shooting the dice, which was a new twist. Random toss.

Personally I have a loss limit and keep it (mostly). These days I usually am dark on everyone but me.

Golfer,

Can you provide details on your loss limit and betting amounts etc..

Is Dave still at it with this system. Seems like most of the post are from years ago.

Thanks

Jaime --thanks! We just need something to help get that DP past the CO.

Heavy, please post your $1 grind strategy for the Don't.

Greetings flextimeLV,
You are asking for someone to show you How to do something that is impossible to do.

The reason the game of craps does not allow you to get that DP bet past on the the CO is so you wont be able to grind out a $1.00 dollar win .

imagine what would happen if you could grind out a one dollar profit every time you made a bet, the casino would ban you from that casino for life.

Yes the casinos in vegas give you free money every day, but you must learn how to take that money away from them.

Is called team play.

Flex I am small potatoes. $5 to $10 flat bettor. 2-5 times odds. 2-3 dc bets after comeout. Lose 2 bets stop DC and take down odds and wait for a decision. I will bet bigger when wining to try and make a score but doesn't happen often. Dave is still playing as far as I know. However, don't think this is easy. Many have come before us and failed. Slow and steady does the trick. Look at $5 Bill's posts. He does great with small steady wins then he gets up a lot, loses and gets pissed off and tries to make it back fast and drives into the ditch. Great guy, we all love him but he loses his discipline and gets whacked. The irony is if you want to win you need slow and steady gains with discipline, meaning frequent trips. As I have gotten older I dont enjoy the chase as much and cant spend the time, well I could but I'd rather be golfing. Good Luck.

Many thanks for the response, Golfer! Looking forward to hearing how $5Bill is doing lately!

Hi flextimeLV

I wrote up my Monthly Report over on my thread "Ending Up With a Win"

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=3359&start=420

I will re-post it here so you can read it.

______________________

Sept 24th 2016

I was doing OK the first week of the month of Sept. Up +$363. Then I had 3 unexpected doctor bills come in the mail so I used $90 of my winnings and paid them off. Then there was my car accident. It wasn’t too bad so I took $50 more dollars of my winnings and had my license plate bracket replaced at the dealer. Then starting the 2nd week of September, I walked up to the table and for the next 4 day trips, I couldn’t seven-out. On two of the trips I got back to even but on the other two trips I lost -$354. I used the same dice sets that I had been using when I was on that winning streak and the same shooting spot. It was really frustrating. Of course I didn’t switch to the right side like I should have. I stayed on the Don’t side.

I told Americraps about it so he invited me over to practice on his table. He found me a new dice set and I played the right side this time. I made a 4 point Firebet and made a lot of pretend money. Americraps also had a great hand.

Anyway, until next month comes I have been sitting it out at home.

$5Bill

Many thanks, Bill! I take it that an 8-count on Randy didn't offset your "success" on the pass line?

I don't think it is wise to go all in dark or do bet. It's like any other game. You need to mix it up depending on what's coming. But for sure there's going to be a day its not your day. If you play it wise you might walk away with a small profit still. But it you reach in your pocket for more 3 times, usualy you are in the doodoo. I used to bring 3 buyin when I played poker. When the first one goes you reload unless it was a 90% chance you missed... Then get up and go ur not going to win that game that day. Same as martingale, when you have had 3 loss in a row. Walk away. Oh and never play more then 3 hours in a row. You lose focus.

jaime1943 wrote:O.K flextimeLV, you ask for it.

How to win $1.00 grind strategy, Heavy nor i can garantee this system OR ANY OTHER SYSTEM.

you will be betting only on other shooters , YOU WILL NOT SHOOT THE DICE.

On the come out you will bet $6.00 dollars on the don't pass line.

If the come out number is the number 6, you will bet 6 dollars on that number.
If the come out number is the number 8, you will bet 6 dollars on that number.

If the come out number is the 4 or the 5 or 9 or the 10 then you bet 5 dollars on those numbers.

NOW lets do the Math on this system--
If the shooter makes the point 6 or the 8 you win $1.00 dollar.
If he seven out, you break even.

If the shooter makes the number 5 or 9, you win $1.00
If he seven out, you win $ 1.00

Now we come to the 4 and 10-- if the shooter makes the 4 or 10 , you win $3.00 dollars.
If he seven out, you win $ 1.00

Their is your system. again, good luck on the come out.

SYSTEM FOR SHOOTITALL: Shoot them between the eyes.

That's an interesting system, the biggest caveat has to do with the comeout roll:

On Come Out:
22.2% chance you lose $6
8.3% chance you win $6
2.8% chance you push

66.7% chance a point is made and *you win at least $1

EV:
-$1.322
+$0.498
+$0.677
=======
-$0.150 per "point shot"

* In some cases you push, in some cases you win $3, I didn't do the math down to that level, perhaps at best it is a break-even strategy?

I created a simulator based on Dave's System but a little less aggressive and a little different in how I implement it.

I use $1k bankroll and simulate a set of 1000 dice rolls
Then I simulate 100 sets
Finally I randomize the dice rolls 10x resulting in 10 x 100 = 1000 test play sessions

Rules:
1. every comeout: $10 DNP + either 2 lay bets of $60 on 6&8 or a promoted Don't Come bet at full odds (6&8 only)
2. $10 DC on every roll after comeout until odds/lay bet are taken twice for this point (either on comeout or after)
3. Only place odds on 5,6,8,9 leave bets flat on 4&10
4. After 2nd odds are wiped out, promote DC to the number rolled AND replace odds - key difference from Dave's system = leave odds up after 2nd taken down
5. When point is made and you lose your DNP bet, take down any non-6/8 odds, continue to step 1 until balance + money on board >= $1200 or your bankroll goes broke.

I need to QA my simulation very closely since there is likely a bug, but after some initial testing out of the 1,000 play sessions only 6 busted the $1k bankroll for a $6k loss. The other 994 would have resulted in at least a $200 win per session which is close to a $200k profit against $6k in losses.

I'll report back after I find those inevitable bugs and see how much worse the returns get.

You can easily reproduce results from my above rules using the wizard of odds simulator, reset it every time your balance and $ on board exceed 10200 and keep notes as to how many lucky streaks you can get in a row before busting out (losing $1k) or you can stop after like 20 or 30 rolls.

Yeah, I'd take those odds.

Actually, when ironfist2 1st started writing about Dave he included the bit about Dave making $200 his target and when he reached it he was gone. I can attest to the fact that's what he did. Not a bad plan.

Golfer wrote:Actually, when ironfist2 1st started writing about Dave he included the bit about Dave making $200 his target and when he reached it he was gone. I can attest to the fact that's what he did. Not a bad plan.

In theory it is great, my buddy made a good point. What's stopping from you coloring out, walking to the bar having a drink, and walking back to same/new table and starting it up again? It does suck getting that rough start where your first few bets get taken and it becomes an uphill battle. I guess its all about money management and not getting too greedy, I thought I read in this thread he got 86'd from a casino, which one?