Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

So the Suns came through and I now have another bet on KC to win the Superbowl. But it is even better. At one point the Suns were up by 7, so I took Portland +4.5 and parlayed that with the Chiefs. I hit a nice middle.

Nate, I know it is a long wait. But I make small bets throughout the year on baseball golf and other sports ending with a team to win the SB. I am now loaded on KC and TB and have a few bets on GB ARI and the Rams. So unless there is an upset I will be nicely sett up for the big game.

r-ventura-23,
I see, you’ve got a long game. I’ve seen a lot of SB lines with NFC -1....that might be a way to tie the TB, GB, Rams, and ARZ together into parlays without risking one over the other.

Good luck, DN8R

Well, its week # 15 and we've got quite a mess on our hands. I made things worse by not getting my action in on KC teased to +4 sigh

CLV is a mess with maybe no QB, causing the line to move 4 points so far. Meanwhile the PHL line has moved 3.5. And JAX became a bigger favorite after firing their coach. BUF has gone back and forth a point, and MIN has gone from -3.5 to -5.5.

There's still a few stable lines, like NE + 2, hmmm then tease it. I also like SF teased to -2, I'll probably replace KC with GB and see if that line creeps back down. Then of course there's Mr. Brady & co at -11 ---> -4 always worth a look, but I think -3 is my limit.

I'm gonna start with some pizzas on a 7 point teaser with NE, SF, & GB, DN8R

Congrats r_ventura_23 on your parlays. I find your cross-sports parlays interesting.

DarthN: "...CLV is a mess with maybe no QB, causing the line to move 4 points so far. Meanwhile the PHL line has moved 3.5. And JAX became a bigger favorite after firing their coach. BUF has gone back and forth a point, and MIN has gone from -3.5 to -5.5. ..."

I agree the browns-raiders game is a huge debacle/ last I saw it was moved to Monday. I peeped at the moneyline and ATS several times today/ the ATS was changing by the hour. Who knows by Sunday Goodell may insist all players wear masks(or only wear on offense, or only on the sidelines, or only while drinking blue gatorade, or not....etc).


re: My weekly prop bet. My top prop as of Sat 1am 12/18: SF WR Deebo Samuel Tot Yds Rec 40.5 "OVER" and this gets my pressed-up wager.
Hopefully Deebo stays healthy/avoids covid (or at least avoids testing til after the game). May the streak live another week.


Best of skill to everyone.tg

Well Indy covered the tease by a point. Since it was the first leg, I let it play out. Almost backdoored.

Still have two strong legs, but with the games being rescheduled a lot of lines moves have followed, so getting a third leg might be tough.

We'll see how things flow overnite, DN8R

Had a nice parlay go down last night with the Pat's giving up that 68 yard TD at the end.

TGold. I am a John Patrick disciple. We love to load up on one play, which sets up numerous hedge/middle oppurtunities.

I got Gronk to score tonited first TD.

All my plays lost this weekend for football. Thank God for Jaime with these basketball picks. When Minnesota was up, I did hedge taking Dallas +7.5 and parlayed that with GB to win the Super Bowl. Another nice middle.

r-v,
Well your prop lived to the end; that’s the “joy” of sports betting.

Since the numbers moved so much I decided to pass. Did have ARZ and Mia in survivor, what a beat down in Detroit

DN8R

rc ventura:
"...TGold. I am a John Patrick disciple. We love to load up on one play, which sets up numerous hedge/middle oppurtunities...."

"...All my plays lost this weekend for football. Thank God for Jaime with these basketball picks. When Minnesota was up, I did hedge taking Dallas +7.5 and parlayed that with GB to win the Super Bowl. Another nice middle..."

I also like GB as we approach the playoffs. I booked a futures on GB (after week 7) to win NFC championship.


re: My weekly prop bet. My top prop as of Sat 1am 12/18: SF WR Deebo Samuel Tot Yds Rec 40.5 "OVER" and this gets my pressed-up wager.
WINNER , as Deebo easily covered the 40.5 tot rec yards (60). The pressed-up wager streak lives another week. I actually booked this at 39.5 and was enthused with shaving a point. Then I saw where one book actually lowered to 37.5 by kickoff.

re: Tonights mon game between Browns/Raiders that moved from Sat to mon night. No prop bets on this one for me. Though I tried to find a decent total yards Prop for Browns RB Saint Nick (Chubb). Nothing available.

An alterNate bet I like as of this morning is Browns(+3) . I only placed one unit. The nfl-goodell covid policies wrecked havoc on the Browns players as well as the moneyline,ats, and most of the Props.

Im not sure why nfl/Goodell are so overly concerned about +covid tests and inter-team covid transmission. If Goodell asks for my opinion(he hasnt yet) I would suggest to just wait and cross that bridge when he gets there as I dont see the Raiders D getting within 6 feet of Nick Chubb all night. Brownies cover(+3).


All the best,

Tgold wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:23 pm I also like GB as we approach the playoffs. I booked a futures on GB (after week 7) to win NFC championship.

An alterNate bet I like as of this morning is Browns(+3) . I only placed one unit. The nfl-goodell covid policies wrecked havoc on the Browns players as well as the moneyline,ats, and most of the Props.

Good luck with GB. I remember last year's game where Rodgers could have run it in and instead tried to force a pass that wasn't there; then his coach takes the bullet for skipping a 4th down play and taking the field goal; and then Brady finished them off. We saw who we're dealing with. Now following his bully blustering the past 8 months, I can't see GB getting to the Super Bowl. Just my opinion, you heard it here first. Tampa showed what it takes to win in GB in JAN; I think LAR can as well. Stafford or Brady have played in the cold. Should be a fascinating watching those three duke it out. As for the AFC, I've never bought into Buf, NE got exposed this weekend; and plays the rematch with Buf next week. Neither can likely beat KC if they get home field and Mahomes continues to tighten things up; though never bet against Belichek is still a good rule.

Browns +3 is interesting, I'd tease it up to +10 with one of the other dogs: Bears +13.5 on MNF or SEA +14, or WFT + 13.5?? All those dogs have fleas, but SEA has Russell, DN8R

I agree with you about GB. But I am loaded on Tampa Bay, and have some money on ARI and LA Rams. So it is a way to hedge for me, just in case Rodgers finally doesn't choke in the Championship game.

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:47 pm I agree with you about GB. But I am loaded on Tampa Bay, and have some money on ARI and LA Rams. So it is a way to hedge for me, just in case Rodgers finally doesn't choke in the Championship game.

True, the other guys might choke first.......

Browns(+3) covered. So glad to win(though only my 1 unit wager), still a win. I didnt really see the chaos as producing any bias. However, with 18 or whatever Browns out on the covid list including all there QBs/bringing in a guy from the practice squad(Im not making this up). My thinking was that when there is chaos that chaos is often better for the home team/ the line movement was considering all the latest news. After the covid lists started coming out the line swayed viciously from browns -6.5 to browns +3(maybe more variance as I stopped monitoring after getting my wager booked).

re:GB futures. I only have GB to win nfc championship(didnt pick to win sbowl), and I placed it after their week 7 loss to KC. I looked at it as a wager that had a little value. Similar to KC value to win SB (at beginning of year there was no value IMO).
Most years I select seven futures (at equal cost) to win SB/ wager these throughout the season as I perceive there is extra value at that time. With that said--I have never won a futures on the SB winner(though I have won two Championship Games futures). So my record isnt exactly stellar.


All the best,

Tgold wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:21 pm
re:GB futures. I only have GB to win nfc championship(didnt pick to win sbowl), and I placed it after their week 7 loss to KC. I looked at it as a wager that had a little value. Similar to KC value to win SB (at beginning of year there was no value IMO).
Most years I select seven futures (at equal cost) to win SB/ wager these throughout the season as I perceive there is extra value at that time. With that said--I have never won a futures on the SB winner(though I have won two Championship Games futures). So my record isnt exactly stellar.

I used to bet a lot of futures till I got locked on teasers. I don’t want to tie up huge sums for that long, so from that perspective I appreciate your tactics during the season.

I also agree that you can narrow it to 2-3 from each conference. Plus I like win totals, for instance Cin over 5.5 seemed like a lock this year as did Pit less than 10, both relative to a seventeen game schedule.

I won’t fade GB during the season, nor TB, nor Russell. It should be pretty obvious by now that I place a strong reliance on premium QB play as you need a fighter in your corner if your teaser goes wrong early in the game. Likewise I seldom tease dogs the first 4-5 weeks. Yeah I know that’s kinda chalky but the sports books spend a boatload on smart guys setting lines so I see a teaser as a way that I can leverage that knowledge, especially as that compliments my efforts in playing in the knockout pools.

Anyway good luck on your futures.

DN8R

Well, it’s week #16 time and my top teaser leg this week has to be GB at -7.5 teased to -1/2. Not only for the reasons above but getting GB basically straight up is strong.

I’m in Florida so I can’t get any action to this writing is basically to provide fodder for all you reading. I also like LAR -3 teased to +4. Now it gets murky, TB has a bunch of injuries, Covid is everywhere and I want a third leg. Cowboys to -4 could work; but would rather that be -3. SF bet +4 sounds too good for a road team on Thursday night - TB on the road going to -3 sounds better if the injury report is ok. Then there’s Detroit going to 12.5, hmmm.

I guess I could position the Death Star over Florida and “lobby” for sports betting, AND CRAPS, but they can’t deliver before Sunday, sigh.

Anyway good luck this week, DN8R

DartN: "...I also agree that you can narrow it to 2-3 from each conference. Plus I like win totals, for instance Cin over 5.5 seemed like a lock this year as did Pit less than 10, both relative to a seventeen game schedule...."
I didnt even consider the win totals (Cin 5.5)--I wish I had on this one.



My top prop this week is on the 12/25 game GB vs Browns. Browns qb BakerM TotPasYds: 209.5 "OVER". This gets my pressed-up wager. May the streak last another week.


All the best to all the punters.

Had the following parlay go down in flames. Every time I bet on the Chargers or the Vikings they lose. Winning 6 out of 7 is still a loss.

GB
INDY +7.5
PHI
TB
LAC loser
KC
DAL

Would have paid 4 to 1.

Yeah, LAC knocked many of us out of survivor this weekend, sigh. The New LAC - same as the Old LAC.....

The rest of that card was solid, sigh.....

7 legs is rough, especially when a early sunday game kills it, DN8R