What happened to regression strategies?

[memo]

I picked this up from the casino quest guys...

220 inside
First hit, spread to 4,10 to 25 each. Collect 20 dollars.
Second hit, collect 70...or 49
If you regress to 160 across here, you have about 20 dollars exposures for two hits, with 160 working for you..
That is getting your money off the table fast!

In a more aggressive play, add 40 dollars to the second hit for total of 110, press the inside one unit each.
Third hit and regress, now you have about 80 dollars profit with 160 working.
Of course these numbers vary depending on inside, or 4,10 hits and when...

My experience is that I seldom get knocked off with the first, less aggressive strategy...However, hanging it out there for that third hit can be dangerous...A nod to Heavy's frequency example he uses during classes. (Red chip in the third position...If unfamiliar, attend a class.)

I like regression betting, however, I will seldom regress after my initial one.

Memo

[220Inside]

My regression play for a while now has been 110 inside
First hit, press that number and its sister. For 5 or 9, both go to 35, rack 11. For 6 or 8, both go to 42, rack 11
Next hit, regardless of the number, press the 2 unpressed numbers to either 35 (5 and 9) or 42 (6 and 8)
The next hit, regardless of the number, pays 50 for 1. Regress back to 66 inside. Up and out from there.

On a 25 table, or if I'm feeling particularly on for the session, I'll start with 154 inside instead.
First hit, press that number and its sister. For 5 or 9, both go to 50, rack 19. For 6 or 8, both go to 60, rack 13
Next hit, regardless of the number, press the 2 unpressed numbers to either 50 (5 and 9) or 60 (6 and 8)
The next hit, regardless of the number, pays 70. Regress back to 110 inside. Up and out from there.

[kumar]

It is very commendable in reading these posts that so many are using some form of regression to reduce risk from the shooter and get to break even in the shortest amount of rolls

I would like to hear how our players have applied the same principles to crap less craps

Crap less craps seems to becoming more and more popular specially with the bigger players since it generates more action however the risk levels are much higher since it is now possible to spread money over 10 numbers as compared to a standard game where one could only spread money over as much as 6 numbers

[220Inside]

The regression play I posted I only use on myself and a select few known shooters. Definitely not for randies.

Placing across is generally a recipe for disaster, even more so with crapless. I just don't do it. I prefer to play to my strengths by knowing my signature numbers and situational sets and having a betting strategy built around that rather than initially putting additional money at risk that I don't have an edge on.

[AllahPena]

It is very commendable in reading these posts that so many are using some form of regression to reduce risk from the shooter and get to break even in the shortest amount of rolls

I would like to hear how our players have applied the same principles to crap less craps

Crap less craps seems to becoming more and more popular specially with the bigger players since it generates more action however the risk levels are much higher since it is now possible to spread money over 10 numbers as compared to a standard game where one could only spread money over as much as 6 numbers

I only really play crapless. My regression is the same for either game with the exception of I don't have the put bets on the extreme outside, only place bets. If I hit an outside # it pays 3-1 or 6-1 anyway. I would only play regular craps if there was no option for crapless.

[DarthNater]

My crapless approach is only the extremes plus the 6&8 after the point is set, and only on tables I know. I started laying the 4 at the Strat as a hedge to work the extremes on the comeout - first hit, pull the lay and press all for extremes a unit. I don't regress on crapless when using the hedge lay, instead, I stay away from the 4,5,9,10 until I've gotten that second hit; I use only horn rich sets in this method. Since Strat, have also used it successfully at Bally's as they and Paris also let you lay on the crapless tables. I also like a field & come bet combo for two tosses after the point, as the come is like a mini hedge. The aggressive start with the horn set also seems to help with the ATS pursuit, DN8R

[Parson]

My regression play for a while now has been 110 inside
First hit, press that number and its sister. For 5 or 9, both go to 35, rack 11. For 6 or 8, both go to 42, rack 11
Next hit, regardless of the number, press the 2 unpressed numbers to either 35 (5 and 9) or 42 (6 and 8)
The next hit, regardless of the number, pays 50 for 1. Regress back to 66 inside. Up and out from there.

On a 25 table, or if I'm feeling particularly on for the session, I'll start with 154 inside instead.
First hit, press that number and its sister. For 5 or 9, both go to 50, rack 19. For 6 or 8, both go to 60, rack 13
Next hit, regardless of the number, press the 2 unpressed numbers to either 50 (5 and 9) or 60 (6 and 8)
The next hit, regardless of the number, pays 70. Regress back to 110 inside. Up and out from there.

This is a good strategy. Need that damn third hit.

[Aggie1986]

Hello all, new member here as of today and this my first post on Axis. I am very excited about the content found here on Heavy's Forum...I am particularly looking at Regression strategies and how a strategy might improve my session bankroll. My current strategy begins with a $36 dollar outlay ( $18 place on the 6 and 8), one hit then I go to $44 inside. Second hit I drop $6 dollars and place the 4 and 10 for $64 across, I then look for one more hit and regress back to a $12 6 and 8. At this point I remain on the 6 and 8 with same bet wagers until Big Red shows up. My buy in is usually $500 at a $10 minimum table. Is there any thing I could be doing better regarding this Regression Strategy? Please feel free to weigh in and let me know and again Thank you for any input you can give me.

Aggie1986

[heavy]

Just a little simple math. The average game at craps is about 3.5 rolls. The average hand is about 8.4. Just for definition purposes, a game begins with the first toss of the dice. If you toss a seven or eleven that game is complete. You won and your hand continues. If you toss a 2, 3, or 12 you lost the game, but your hand also continues because you have not yet established a point. If you establish a point and make that point before tossing a seven out then your hand continues as you've completed THAT game. And if at any point you seven out it's game over and hand over. Easy peasy, but a lot of people don't grasp the terminology so I like to throw it out there from time to time.

So, bearing that in mind, over the long run you should be find with 2 - 3 hits and a maximum regression. My preference is for a larger regression, but that takes a larger initial bet in most cases. I'm also not really a fan of spreading $64 across but I get where you're coming from. You want a shot at every number. I'd rather see you bet $66 inside or $66 even numbers. The house edge is marginally less on the inside. Plus the temptation not to regress is less on the inside. If I get a hit on a 15 Four or Ten I'm going to Buy it for $25 every time and get $16 - $17 change, and basically say "screw regressing on that number" because it's a free bet at that point.

My favorite regression play on a $10 game is simple. $24 Six and Eight. One hit on either and regress to $12 Six and Eight. Now I have a whopping $4 profit and two free bets up - $24 action in play. Next hit pays $14 - make them look like $18 each and lock up $2. Next hit - same bet. Lock up $21 giving you $27 profit and $36 action. If you get one more hit you can take $21 and regress again or put on the big boy pants and run the old Heavy progression. Drop $3 and press the number that hits to $42. Next hit pays $50 for one. Next hit press to $90. Next hit pays $105. Next hit pays $105 - press to $180 and lock up $15. Next hit pap $210 - lock it up. Next hit pays $210 - drop $30 and press it to $420. Next hit pays $500 for $10. Now you scratch your head and say "What? That shit can't happen." And 90% of the time it won't. And 90% of the time when you get it pressed up to $420 you'll never get that $500 for $10 hit. But once in a while you will, and then it will hit again and you'll press it to $900. And it will hit again and you'll press to $1800. Then it will hit again and you'll collect $2100. And then it will hit again and we'll see if the REALLY big boy pants are on because that's where you drop $300 and press it to $4200. Because why? Because you want to collect that $5000 for $100 on the next hit.

So much for regressions. LOL.

The best answer - any time you think you have too much money on the table - it's probably already too late to take a regression because the dice are already out. Just tell the dealer quickly to turn your bets off.

[Aggie1986]

I really love the idea of being in profit after one hit and having two free bets working…Thank you very much for this nugget of wisdom.

Aggie1986

[Big O]

Just a little simple math. The average game at craps is about 3.5 rolls. The average hand is about 8.4. Just for definition purposes, a game begins with the first toss of the dice. If you toss a seven or eleven that game is complete. You won and your hand continues. If you toss a 2, 3, or 12 you lost the game, but your hand also continues because you have not yet established a point. If you establish a point and make that point before tossing a seven out then your hand continues as you've completed THAT game. And if at any point you seven out it's game over and hand over. Easy peasy, but a lot of people don't grasp the terminology so I like to throw it out there from time to time.

I was trying to explain this to a newbie the other day and was not doing a very good job of it.

The best answer - any time you think you have too much money on the table - it's probably already too late to take a regression because the dice are already out. Just tell the dealer quickly to turn your bets off.

I call this the emergency brake! I try to do it quickly and quietly often with just a hand signal (so not to bother the shooter) if i have been playing a little while and communicating well with the dealer. This week in Vegas i had 3 emergency brakes and one regular brake (deciding while the dice are in the center it might be a good time to go off) 3 of the 4 saved me money one cost me a $100 dollar 10 hit but i still came our several $100 ahead for the trip. Its a nice feeling seeing the deck wiped clean and your money gets passed back to you.

[AllahPena]

I've often considered taking bets down, turning them off, etc. after 12 rolls or so. It's just so difficult to do because if I have say 120-150k on the table I can take most of it down and lock it up as extra profit because I'm already clearly ahead after 12 rolls BUT... the amount I'm taking down equates to probably 4-5 more good rolls to recoup that amount so is it actually worth it?? I never know and the "What If" question is always lingering as in what if we get into the 20s, 30s? THIS is what I'm here for. THIS is why I put myself in this position to crush it and I need to be present with money on the table to take advantage of it. With that said 95% of the time I never really take anything down, if anything if something weird happens to mess up the rhythm of the game I'll hop the 7 for 3k which pays me 16k if the bad # comes and it's a little bit of a hedge without turning bets off. It's very very tough to turn bets off and see the 2 or 12 show up and it pays between 60-100k. I'm not really in the business of playing scared, I do like to think I play smart but there's a fine line IMO between the two.

[memo]

The average game at craps is about 3.5 rolls. The average hand is about 8.4.

I like to have my initial investment off the table with a significant bet in action by the 3rd or latest by the 4th toss. That makes me vulnerable to PSO and PSSO. Yup, they happen. If that does not fit your risk tolerance then ISR is not suitable.

Heavy's chip demonstration comes to mind. He uses chips to illustrate probability of all the numbers, 2 through12. It forms a triangle with 7 in the middle. All the chips are white, except in the 7 column he has a red chip in the 3rd position (3.5) and one in 8th, or 9th position. (Cant remember which...I have slept since that demo) Representing 8.4.
I base my whole philosophy on those two red chips.

I have been with my brother, who bets the 6,8 as Heavy describes. Sometimes they just do not arrive. (*The dice Gods have a strange sense of humor) It is all personal philosophy and tolerance. I tend to spread out more, trying to regress in the fewest possible rolls. Lately if I can beat that 3.5 stat, I have delayed pressing until the magical 8.4th roll....There after, it is balls to the wall.

*Truly though...When my brother and I are at the table together, He is betting 6,8, to my inside...I will make my regression more often, or with fewer rolls... however since I am betting more, when my regression fails, I loose more. Additionally...When I make my regression, I have 160 across working for me, (140 of it paid for) ready to blast off. He, on the other hand, has 6,8....possibly regressed.

Wow!...You gotta love this game! So many things one can do.

Memo

[Bankerdude80]

I like to have my initial investment off the table with a significant bet in action by the 3rd or latest by the 4th toss. That makes me vulnerable to PSO and PSSO. Yup, they happen. If that does not fit your risk tolerance then ISR is not suitable.

Memo

Memo, are you betting this ISR on every shooter or only on yourself and other known shooters you play with?

[memo]

I like to have my initial investment off the table with a significant bet in action by the 3rd or latest by the 4th toss. That makes me vulnerable to PSO and PSSO. Yup, they happen. If that does not fit your risk tolerance then ISR is not suitable.

Memo

Memo, are you betting this ISR on every shooter or only on yourself and other known shooters you play with?

I bet this primarily on self and known shooters..On Random, I will regress after one hit to 110 inside. Only partially exposed after one hit. If I see the table trending between those two red chips mentioned above (3.5 and 8.4 tosses) I will stay up for an additional hit. It is a bit aggressive, however there are a number of alternatives to choose from depending on what is happening at the table. I have always liked ISR betting in one form or another.

A bonus to this ISR system is that the dealers understand it quickly. I have done some that are initially so confusing, you almost always need to explain it over and over. When they have the 'Ah Haa' moment of understanding, they rotate and you need to do it again.

Heavy has a level of 'table awareness' that I have never been able to emulate. (Though I try) This approach allows me to use my level of table awareness with a probability model that will allow taking advantage of medium to long hands without overexposing my bank roll.

Memo

[heavy]

While playing in Biloxi this past weekend I came up with a new regression strategy that's been working well enough that I decided to pass it along. Essentially it's an inside number play that begins with $35 each on the Five and Nine, and $30 each on the Six and Eight. Initial bet is $130 inside. On the first hit on the Five or Nine you collect $50 for $1 and reduce the Five and Nine to $25 each, leaving you just $1 at risk on the Five and Nine. On the first hit on the Six or Eight you regress to $18 each, leaving just $1 at risk on the Six and Eight. Should you get a hit on the Six and the Nine, for example, you'll have regressed on all four numbers with a shot at winning $21 - $35 on the next toss. "Same Bet" the first hit after the regression, then start pressing up and out from there on subsequent hits, according to your own press schedule and your risk/sevens tolerance.

[memo]

While playing in Biloxi this past weekend I came up with a new regression strategy that's been working well enough that I decided to pass it along. Essentially it's an inside number play that begins with $35 each on the Five and Nine, and $30 each on the Six and Eight. Initial bet is $130 inside. On the first hit on the Five or Nine you collect $50 for $1 and reduce the Five and Nine to $25 each, leaving you just $1 at risk on the Five and Nine. On the first hit on the Six or Eight you regress to $18 each, leaving just $1 at risk on the Six and Eight. Should you get a hit on the Six and the Nine, for example, you'll have regressed on all four numbers with a shot at winning $21 - $35 on the next toss. "Same Bet" the first hit after the regression, then start pressing up and out from there on subsequent hits, according to your own press schedule and your risk/sevens tolerance.

Cool way to reduce your exposure.
Nice!

Memo

[Big O]

Heavy,

Essentially it's an inside number play that begins with $35 each on the Five and Nine, and $30 each on the Six and Eight.

Are you working on the comeout? (i know you usually dont) If one of the insides become the point do you just run with the other 3?

[heavy]

No, I never work on the Come Out because there are a LOT of players out there who set for the Sevens on the Come out - and some who "root" for the Seven, and I don't want to bet against that "psychic energy." Also, even setters who are not setting for sevens are often using dice sets on the Come Out with four sevens on axis, like the straight sixes, which we use in an effort to hit the extreme outside numbers and get them out of the way on the ATS. We bet the Horn numbers in amounts sufficient to turn it into a profit center if we toss them. e.g. a World plus and ace-deuce. In the $1 denomination with $2 on the ace-deuce the payoff is $30 minus the losing bets - or $25. On a $15 game you net a $10 profit if you toss a Horn number. Hence, we call it the Game Within a Game (GWAG). Often we'll get two or three of those numbers out of the way on the Come Out, giving us better shot at the ATS once we set a point and go to work on the numbers.

[stars123]

When I am shooting, I love to use a regression. If my bankroll can support it, I start with $300 inside for the first 3 tosses after the point is set. That will usually get me $190 to $300 paid out. Then I can regress to $130 across and press the 6/8 first, then the 5/9, and repeat. I dont throw very many 4/10s usually so I don't press them much.
On randoms, I play the 6/8 or 5/9 and regress after one hit similar to what Heavy explained earlier.

BTW, I am new to the forum. Been throwing dice for a few years mostly for entertainment (and hope of more money). Just started to get serious about my throwing this year. I hope to learn a lot from everyone and help out when I can.