Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Kelph,

That really sounds like curious...Looks like he has been expanding the don't progression. Notice that he is defending himself from the 'math guys'.

Memo

Memo, your play looks like Dave's on steroids. Continous DC bets until 2 are knocked off. Once that happens all the lays come down. Flats stay up. Never a lay on the 4 or 10.

Golfer

Thanks Golfer,
I was hoping that someone would respond...Especially someone that understands the dark side.

These are not my systems, but I find them interesting....Nuances of the don't are still a bit elusive for me...That is why I am simulating and posting. Both of them seem to go against the norm.

Curious system seems to win way more even with the risk involved. I am not sure that I want to be pinned to a table for 8-10 hours overcoming the losses of Dave's. (especially if I cant get it to work in sims) That being said...I may enjoy staying for extended periods playing with something like this if it is viable.

You guys that really know the dont's could have a lot of input..or anyone else with interest for that matter..

Memo

I'm doing some work with a goofy system Bobby Bones and I ran into in Vegas last Spring. I call it the C02 system. (The guy that was playing it reminded me of Clarence Oddbody Angel Second Class, from the movie "It's A Wonderful Life")
$18- 6,and eight 8. $15 five. $10 field. $50 no ten and $50 no 4. When 10 or 4 get knocked off, double the lay on both to $100, then $200, $400, $800, and so on till hand ends. When the seven finally comes, the 4 and 10 lays pay for themselves plus your iron cross, and you get free iron cross action in the meantime, making $10 or more on every throw. So far in my current book of rolls, I have had the lay up to $3200 on both the 4 and 10. Yes, severe pucker factor. The guy playing it had deep pockets, and we were testing them out, but he made $10 on each toss of the dice. He claimed he had been playing the system for years and it always paid for his Vegas trips. You might need $40K or more in your pocket to be safe.

I should mention that the 4 and ten lays don't totally pay for themselves in the later stages, if you simply double the amount as the vig isn't accounted for,(at the $3200 level thats $80 x 2) , so if you want to be accurate about covering your lay, you'll have to add more $ than just the pure double. Also, the system, as it is set up isn't profitable until the second hit, so if you are not wotco, it's 3 rolls before you are in the black. "Clarence" never pressed his IC amounts, even on long hands. He was content to make $10 per roll. I have not made that much, because I have not accounted for the increased vig at the higher levels, and there are plenty of instances of sevens coming on the first or second roll before the hand is profitable. I'm probably making $6 or $7 per roll in my simulation. I can't really see myself playing a system like this for real money. It's interesting that my srr is around 6.8 and I am throwing way more tens than expected, so I am really feeling the pucker factor. I'm using the 3v so I really shouldn't be throwing all those tens. I think if I was to seriously consider playing the CO2, I would want to find my set with the lowest srr possible in combination with the fewest amount of 4s and 10s, but a high rate of 2s and 12s for the field payoff. Might not be easy to find such a set, maybe the cross or parralell sixes. Maybe some kind of press in the IC would spike up the profit. But the pucker factor, ah yes I can see myself laying out a $6400 no ten and a $6400 no four. NOT!

For a second lets forget about what I bet on and concentrate on my conservative method of betting. I believe my key to keeping my losses low is this, I will not Press a bet until I recover my initial outlay.

Here is an example;

$5 Pass Line
$20 Odds
$12 6 & 8
My initial outlay for the above is $49.

I keep my chips in the front rail and keep the back rail for whatever I take in per hand. So when I have $49 in the back rail I will take one more hit (profit) before I Press any bets. I take as much money off the table as soon as possible and take one more hit for profit.

I only Press a number that is hitting, how many times have you seen a player hit one number then Press up two or more of his numbers?

I use the 2V set and starting off any session I will have two numbers my Pass Line and 4 X Odds. This is the usual starting off point for me.

On other shooters I hate to bet on them and I usually watch the dice closely. If one shooter made at least one point when the dice pass I go to the Don't. I only Flat Bet on the Darkside, I will put $15 on the Don't Pass and two Don't bets of $15 each. If I get bumped off I get bump off this is my limit on any one shooter. If my 3 Don't get killed I am done with this shooter.

I played yesterday and laid out my bets according to what BT was telling me and that was the 5, 8 & 9 were my best bets. I covered those numbers the first time with the Dice. I will move my bets around if necessary, if my 9 bet is collecting dust and I am tossing 4's I will move my bet. Not right away, but if I haven't toss a 9 in seven or so shots I will probably move that 9 bet..

My first goal (always) is to recover my initial layout.

I always (99%) play with my friend House Arrest and here is one problem with my method, on a winning day House Arrest will win more than I do.........always! However on a bad day my losses are much less that his so I guess its a toss up. Here is a good example yesterday I won forty units and he won one hundred almost, but that's OK with me.

I bet pass plus 2X odds. If I can narrow my signature numbers down, I will also bet two of those. If I make a point, I may do a regression, which is my signature numbers plus the next biggest hitters for two units each. Two hits then regress to one unit on signature numbers and take the other two down. Then press evey other hit from there.

NMN

grooovy, A good stategy but most do not enjoy the darkside. Also, what you suggest is best tried on an empty table so that you can get the dice back quick if you shoot yourself. Shooting from the darkside is fun. I encourage it when you can find the right conditions.


Later

Update - UH book #68 is done, here are the numbers. Profit made= $4716. Betting method CO2, WOTCO.
($18- 6 &8, $15-5, $10 field 12 pays triple, $5PL-no odds, Lay 4 and 10 for $50 each, double up both as either is knocked off.) The most I had the lay up to was $3200 each (thats 7 hits). Don't worry, this exercise is just for fun, these weren't real dollars. This example needed a pocket with $13K in it. Really, to be safe wouldn't you need enough to absorb at least 3 more hits? That would mean a suitcase with $104K. Hey, I could use that to stand on while I shoot. The goal of this system is to make $10 on each roll, but the $ amount on each roll worked out to $6.52. The reason - the lay isn't quite a 100% hedge, no adjustment was made for the increasing vig on the lay progression, the hand loses $8 on a CO7, and $18 on a PSO. My next book will include pressing the IC without changing the lay.
I was using a 3v perm on this book, and strangely enough, there was a time, early in this book, when I was pounding the tens. Not good when you are laying the ten. I ended up throwing 12 less 4 and tens than random, SRR was 6.67 and I threw 20 more inside hits than expected so the 3v characteristics held true.
BSR- 4.52
Both on axis -44.58%
PFH- 12.36%
Single Pitch- 22.5%
DP- 9.72%
one die off -44.31%
both off- 11.11%
I am happy with my PFH to DP ratio, but not my on axis %. I threw a lot of 6s (13 more than expected), hardly any fours (15 less than random) 3 more tens than random, and I would have made money on the horn. If these numbers stay similar (I doubt it), I would tempted to avoid the ten lay and stack it all against the four. Would I ever use this for real? If I could get the profit up to say $8K, it might be worth risking a 14K wipeout, if I could make that $8K 4 or more times before the inevitable. The one thing I like about this system is the relative ambivalance of the seven. No worries for about 90% of your tosses. Of course when the 4 and 10 get pressed to the moon, the moon puckers nicely.

Sept 16th 2011

This is the play I have come up with practicing at Americraps house. I use the dice set 2/5,6/1 on axis with the 1-3 looking up. So far I've made money.
This is what would happen at any point in my play. I want to get either 3 or possible 4 hits on the 6 or 8 before I take them down and leave the $31 No 5 up to seven - out, still using the same dice set.

Lay the 5 & place the 6 & 8
________________________________________________
$31 No 5
$12, 6 and 8 WOTCO
$5 - Deoy - Don't
You are the Shooter
all figures are -$1 vig for the no 5 lay bet
--------------------------------------------------------------
Come out 12 (lose the PL bet)____________ -$5

make the 5 ____________________________-$31
make the 5 after 1 hit on the 6 or 8 _______-$17
make the 5 after 2 hits on the 6 or 8______ -$3
make the 5 after 3 hits on the 6 or 8______ +$11
make the 5 after 4 hits on the 6 or 8 ______+$25
--------------------------------------------------------------
Take Down the 6 and 8, Leaving the No 5 up

0 hits on the 6 and 8, 7-out ______________-$5
1 hit and take down the 6 and 8, 7-out ____+$33
2 hits and take down the 6 and 8, 7-out ___+$47
3 hits and take down the 6 and 8, 7-out ___+$61
4 hits and take down the 6 and 8, 7-out___ +$75
________________________________________


When I first started this play. We looked at Bonetracker to see what dice set would be the best for laying the 5 or 9 and rolling more then random 6's and 8's. We found that my best dice set would be 2-5/6-1 on axis with the 1-3 looking up. In the beginning when I first started using this play, I had the 9 laid but I knocked myself off the 9 twice within a couple of rolls without collecting anything on the 6's or 8's. So, I laid the 5 instead. This worked out fine. Sure I hit the 5 a few times during our 3 hour practice. I came right back and laid the 5 again. So far I have never knocked myself off more then twice without collecting on a 6 or 8.

I am not saying that this play is the "Golden Goose" of plays. Like my "Main Title" says in my trip report, "SO FAR I LIKE THIS PLAY."( viewtopic.php?f=5&t=25&start=100 )This is a work in progress. I don't know how this will turn out in the end. Anything can happen. But I did say that I would post my book of 720 rolls from Bonetracker when I am through with it and I'll let you know how I am doing in the casino with this play. I think that is as fair as I can get. I just thought you guys would be interested in what I have been doing.


$5Bill

$5Bill, you should outline what you do when you knock yourself off with the five

Americraps. I edited the above post of mine and to answer your question about the $31 no 5 Lay bet


$5Bill

Hey $5Bill...

I know a field bet would dilute the winnings from hitting a 6 or 8 so I wonder if you could make a few $$. From reading your other report you mentioned tossing some 2's...3's...and 11's. Just curious if this came up in your practice session.

David

No not really DSS47. Although Americraps has a side bet going where he bets $1 on the eleven every time I toss. This past Wednesday when I was over at his house practicing, I rolled three 11's in a row.

$5Bill

Yes a one hundred dollar yo on every roll would have made $4600 on $5Bills rolls the other night.

grrroooovy wrote:OK, here is something I don't think I seen anyone mention and I am sure with the level of talent on this board, if its not mentioned,,,,must be a good reason....so here it is, if your a dark side shooter why not lay no 4,5, and 10, the set for sevens?

Groooooooooovy,

I have been running this through Zumma's Craps Systems Testing Book ( 35,000 real recorded rolls ) and Boy O' Boy am I going to use this on my next Wed. tour bus trip to South Lake Tahoe !

My testing is only through 22,500 rolls but it appears to work with the following rules :

1].... Wait for a 4/4 or 10/10 to pass.....
2]....Wait for the next 4 or 10 point to...' 7- Out' ..or be 'Capped ' ...as I call it. This move ' Kills-Off ' repeating, back-to-back 4/4's and 10/10's. I have seen 5 repeats, in a row, manifest !
3].... DO NOT let your lay-bet on the 4/10 points stay-up if the shooter throws 6, or more, numbers past the 4/10 point.
4]....DO NOT lay-bet the 4/10 if the shooter has made 2 points back-to-back : 7,11, then the 4 or 10 comes-up as the third shooters point = NO LAY BET. Wait for the next 4/10 point to manifest before continuing the progression string.
5].... If I lose the next 4/10 lay-bet set-up..I WAIT FOR 2 NON-BETTING WINS TO PASS BEFORE BETTING ON THE THIRD 4/10 POINT SET-UP.
6].... IF THE SHOOTER IS HOT after he sets-up an in-action 1010 or 44 outcome... let his string run-out. This type of play OFTEN goes something like this :
44-7-11-55-99-66-88-7-1010-66-66-66-88-47..............
DO NOT COUNT THE 4/7....Only use the opening 44.. Move on ...wait for the next 4 or 10 points to set-up before resuming the lay-bet count.

EXAMPLE :
44....47 = the 44 is now " Capped " against making a 4/10 point run ( 44,1010,44,44,44,1010 ) and it happens !
The example stands at 44, 47 .... now bet heavy that the next 4 or 10 point set-up will...... 7-out.
7].....If the bet loses....you need to... "STEP OVER " ....the current string of repeating 4's and 10's.
.... Man 0' Man through dozens of back-tests, it awes me how 4/4's & 10/10's & 4/7' & 10/7's.... CLUSTER TOGETHER IN GROUPS !

So...we wait for repeating 4/7' and 10/7' to bunch together and then we exploit the cluster by lay betting !

EXAMPLE :

44...47= (Capped )...Next outcome = 44 = a Loss....next set-up goes .....
(47= 1st NON-BET)
( 107 = 2nd NON-BET )
( Third 4/10 Pt. sets up ) .... now, bet for a total lost-loot recovery by lay-betting this play's outcome to 7-out.
If a 44 or 1010 appears while our above set-up is being set-up ....you start the 2 non-betting string over.

It is weird how the damn 4's and 10's..... Cluster in groups !

Thoughts ?
Jim
PS: There is a DP system that I am currently back-testing that steps over points of 6's & 8's. It also steps-over C/0 7's by 100% hedging. In my Zumma back-testing, I stepped-over 10 DP loser's and made the 16% profit while betting on the DP side............totally awesome way to play !

I play $180 across wotc for three tosses then reduce. Even if it is 3 crap numbers I reduce to 22 inside. If i don't make it to three tosses I go to $360 across wotc same deal.

Let's hear your forumla for winning - and while we're at it - tell us if you REALLY play that way.

NO, lol, have only done this at home in dice pit with minor success. Seems like every time I get to the point where I think "Wow, this is gonna work" I toss pso's like crazy for several sessions.

However, I occasionally live play the doey don't. $5 DP w 3x odds , 22 inside, two hits and down. The bullfrogs usually show up around this time especially with a point of 4 or ten. Welcome to my World.

Bones

Since I haven't really been to the tables for more than 2 years, I can only offer some of my old test data. 2 that I found, with good results, are:

No 4, No 5/9 w/ 2-step martingale: Lay the 4 after 2 hits, 5 or 9 after 3 hits. If the lay gets knocked off, double-up and lay it again. Showed a little volatility (for low-bankrolls like mine) 20 sessions w/ 6 losers, 60 rolls per, best was +260 worst was -129. Total +1200. Averaged out to about $80/hour of play.

(Forgive me, I can only guess at my notes for this one...) Single hedge, $44 inside for 2, odds down when place bets come down; 3-step martingale. My first thought is WOTCO, 2 rolls win or lose, then down. $10 DP, full odds while the place bets sit (basically for only a single roll), then just let the flat bet ride. Martingale was simply $10-20-30, if my DPs got knocked off. Restart progression on each shooter (RR). Same 20 sessions, much nicer with only 2 losers. Best session +276, worst -62. Total +1760. Averaged about $104/hour of play.

A couple variations I always liked -- DP/DC up to 3 bets for a shooter. Or perhaps WOTCO for 2 hits before bringing down.

Dark side never refuse action on a number never lay odds but progress and regress on DP/DC.That less for more on lay bets is just another house edge I would rather avoid.

Right side 30.00 6 and or 8 hit and down replace on next pass.Sweet and simple.

I call this The Ultimate Bad Guy

If you're a sharpshooter, this is right up your alley...
As DI, you'll shoot from the don'ts setting 2V for the come-out - you want 4/10 as your point.
DPUnit = whatever you put as your DP bet...try to make this a multiple of 6 i.e. $30

After you set the point:
Placebets - DPUnit bet on each of the 6, 8, and 5 i.e. $30 placebet on each.
DP odds - take the total of the 6,8 bets multiply by 2 and this is your odds amount - now we are "hedged" i.e. $120
Now set using 3V - you are shooting for inside numbers

Each placebet that hits, take it down...until they are all down....
So now, you've just made the darksiders worried because you knocked their lays
...and you've just encouraged the right-siders to drop more chips onto the felt..this is the "set-up"

Sometimes, I let each placebet hit twice before I take it down which really worries the darksiders especially since they can already see that you are DI. The fact that you are shooting DP confuses them and the box...
I've had darksiders pull their bets at this point especially since the rightsiders are all feeling good and dumping more chips on the felt...

Now set for Big Red and bring all your chips home...Ka-Ching! - "rope-a-dope"
You just won on both sides - everybody else loses or "loses out" if they were darksiders - The Ultimate Bad Guy!

I've used this play to hustle comps...the box doesn't track it like a bet on the PL/DP at the same time.

It'd be interesting to play this in a craps tourney...

There are ways to play this for any point number..and there are modifications to play this against "randy shooters". Carol and I did this during one of the Vegas trips. I've even used that strategy to win money on Bodog craps.

The enemy to this play...bullfrogging
If the shooter makes his point twice - pull out and wait for the next shooter.