Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Posted: **Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:31 am**

All betting strategies work when you know the outcome of the rolls. Hindsight is . . . well, you know the rest.

Posted: **Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:00 pm**

Give me a "D" . . .
Give me an "I" . . .

Continue until you spell DISCIPLINE. Why is it so hard? No, this ain't your daddy's Viagra ad. It's all about locking up a win. Thoughts?

Posted: **Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:13 pm**

I think losing players lose because they learn wrong from other players simple as that.They never explore or try to learn new methods of money management.Heres an exsample how do I play this game well young man go 64 across and press every other hit.Your looking for a one hour roll (jesus you don't know how many times ive heard this at a table.Well the kid hits a 36 roll hand and walk out of the casino a win. Then comes back next week and gets his ass handed to him.
You just missed the roll son happen 30 mins ago everybody made out like a badit your just late.No one test any thing out .
Imjust saying no one learns the game .A grown man leaned over to me the other day and said ive droped 35000 in 5 months at this place.This man was probably 3 years younger then me im like wow. I had to think of something to say back like hey man have you tried Evansville they have three tables you know or tunica they have all the tables you want. I really wanted to say Have you ever thought of not going across on a crapless table with 30 on each number jesus h Christ.Oh wellpeople are crazy I quess

Posted: **Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:05 pm**

Have a plan, stick to the plan....rock-solid-disipline.

Posted: **Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:21 am**

Yes...why IS it so hard?

Face it, yes, a decent to long roll would lop off a great profit BUT, think about it really.

Let's say, take 2-3 hits and down on any shooter, but yourself. That's a nice profit and probably on a non-DI on TOP of it! Same bet or regress, doesn't really matter what you do before the 2nd or 3rd hit.

IMO, the thing we lose sight of is, that it is basically the same thing as placing 2-3 independent Baccarat/Black Jack/Pai Gow etc. bets, at once, for ONE hand. Now how many times do you do that at the table???

The way I see it anymore is the craps shooter is one hand, that might continue to another hand. Sure it goes at a much slower rate but, so what.

We should be satisfied with one hit really...next hand, move on, let's go! If I don't like the next craps shooter/Baccarat/Black Jack/Pai Gow etc. bet...I wait or move on to something else.

Do you really think your BR would be smaller or bigger by taking a hit or two and down versus letting it ride on the randies or non-DI? Tell the truth. Compare side by side in a Wincraps scenario and I think you may surprise yourself.

And yes, SIA's OHCM for me is one hit and "Take me down." Small Win+Small Win+Small Win+Small Win = Big Win.

Somebody around here said, "Get in, get up, get gone". You betcha! Has to be the smartest piece of advice I have ever learned here, if you are in it for the money and not entertainment factor.

Posted: **Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:04 am**

does there have to be outlier hands in order for the press up - parlayed and ATS betting strategies to be profitable?

Interesting comment. I recently found myself contemplating the same thing after back to back losses on two trips. I looked back over my first pretty successful year where ATS hits and a couple of really long hands that were part of some of my more profitable trips. In both of the losses i had one or more hands where one number would have made 1000 + difference in my trip. I came to believe though that a new more aggressive betting schedule was the culprit in my losses. I think depending on ATS hits for success would not prove to be a consistent winning formula.

Posted: **Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:20 am**

Two important things IMO from Irish. DI hands that are working tend to have repeaters and DIs will have longer hands more frequently. The repeaters will be based on your set if you are on. Also, and this is my opinion, a DI's roll will deteriorate over time unless they are a robot who never loses focus. None of us are. Therefore, for me early regression to profit is the best move with total pressing to follow. My plan on my shooting is a $10 PL bet. Two rolls if I don't come out with an inside number for which I am setting before I bet. Those two rolls will show me what the dice are doing. The second roll will be a correction if the first one sucks. Not working? Not betting. I have softly mentioned to people at the table next to me..who have seen me throw a decent roll..do not bet until after the 2nd roll. Yet they just throw out everything on the table. You get what you get.

Posted: **Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:30 pm**

I think the thrill of pressing up bets overwhelms the rational mind. I am usually surprised when I am tossing nicely when the devil shows up. This suggests that I am still expecting to hit numbers and press bets, not manage bankrolls and get out.

By the way, per Irish's question of one leaving the craps table after increasing one's bankroll (or decreasing it), I am not leaving. I head over to the sports bar order a beer and play video poker. Oops, there goes another $60 beer!

skasower

Posted: **Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:23 pm**

jaime1943 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:11 am good morning puaco.
In the short RUN it will work/win.
but--- in the long RUN--- you will lose. JAIME.

Great point Jaime. In the long run (tens of thousands of die tosses) It doesn't matter whether you bet a few place numbers and take the bets down after a couple of hits or leave them up until the seven shows...the math is the math and your results for a given wager will approach the mathematical expected value for that wager.

Regarding the original posters question "Why is so hard to say "take me down" or "turn me off" on place/buy bets?

I have been playing craps since 2011 or 2012, and I have never had a hard time saying "take me down" or "turn me off" on place bets. I find it more difficult to ask the dealer to press a bet "up" after one or two hits. I find progression betting very daunting. I find regression betting less frightening, and I find "one hit and down" on place bets to be what my "gut" or "instinct" is telling me to do most of the time.

I've already mentioned that I am a nervous better and I often have minimal action or no action on the table. But let me say this: I don't end up locking in small profits consistently regardless of my "one hit and down" tendencies. I end up loosing more often than I win regardless of my "conservative" play style. I attribute this to "churn". That is, I stand at the table for long amounts of time, re-risking my modest winnings, allowing the math of the game to grind me down. So in short, I lose- I just loose "nice and slowly". Is that better than aggressive progression betting with the prospect of large wins or large losses? Not sure.

Posted: **Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:19 pm**

Look,I walked up to the table tonight with a plan and a be win goal. The plan was to start every player out with a DP. Eight sevens and two elevens later the plan charged. Yeah. What took me so long. I lost $10 on ten consecutive shooters. Should have Kayed the six. Nobody could throw one. By the way, half a dozen guys were betting $10 on the PL plus 555 on the ATS plus horn bets, world bets, craps checks etc. So the right side of the table was getting whacked too. Nobody was winning but the house. But halfway through a decent Churchill I stopped that DP shit and just went back to Place betting. Eventually I tiptoed in on the ATS. And yes, the Small hit once and the Tall hit once. I went from dow about $150 to up $200. My win goal ( part two of the plan) was $160. Me rules let me continue to play until that win drops to $180, then I HAVE to leave. A dice newbie standing next to me asked how he was supposed to toss the dice. I told him to set the 5's on top and the 4's facing and to try to land the dice on the DP line. He asked me "knuckleball or slider.". I told him not to say the word slide while holding the dice. Knuckleball. He tosses a six number come out hans full of 2's, 3's, and $12's. He asked why they kept paying me. I told him it was because I had an entertainment bet out there. He set the 10 as the point and made it. Then the 8. Then the 5. He couldn't score a repeater and I'd left too much on the table. But I was up &249 at that point and had burned through the entire cigar. Licked up a $240 win and toked the $9. Time to get my fat ass to bed. He'll, I had not even planned on playing tonight.

Posted: **Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:20 pm**

The point in all that last post...win goals, loss limits, a plan, and a back up plan.

Posted: **Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:37 am**

Heavy, you were just one day late with your strategy. I arrived late tuesday night. Just one table open packed at 11.45 pm! I couldnt get on so i decided to watch for a while. At first it was so packed i was having to watch over shoulders, tried not to crowd anyone. When a guy left by the dealer in the turn i was able to get up to the table. I didnt walk up with any chips like normal so i was just watching. Guy at straight out said it was a cold table. I will try to cover it in more detail in a TR when i get caught up. Two full rounds around the table no passes! Finally a guy hit an 8 then more no passes. Easily an hour + with just the one point made and most hands under 5 tosses, with only 1 CO 7 and 1CO 11! and probably 6 CO craps! Talk about a dark siders dream. It was almost that bad for couple of hours wednesday night as well, but then heated up.

Posted: **Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:07 am**

irish wrote: ↑Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:04 am
...... "Take me down." Small Win+Small Win+Small Win+Small Win = Big Win.
This is one of the most repeated myths in all of gambling. After almost 20 years of DI and craps forum, there has not been one player who played one hit and down, that turned into a big bankroll. That's not to say they didn't come out in the black, but there's no indication that anyone has turned small wins into big wins.

You mentioned wincraps. On a randy, one hit and down will be a nice slow-losing or slightly winning, table time maximizing, method. I guarantee that one hit and down will not result in a "big win." That is, of course, unless you're betting $1000 per shooter. This method of play has utility for some players. The utility is not profit, certainly not winning big, but table time.

Now. If you apply this to a DI in wincraps, you may come out in the black, but it will not end in a "big win." A DI's edge largely comes from the fact that they have a slightly higher rate of long hands, and those hands are slightly longer, and contain more repeaters. Our edge is calculated on a per/roll basis, but the edge manifests itself differently. The outcome of most of a DI's hands will be indistinguishable from any randy hand. If that's the case, a DI will mostly experience randy-like results with the above strategy, and not have a wager on the table on the outlier hands. The money (and the edge) is in the outlier hands.

When it comes to "Get in, get up, and get gone," I personally agree with this. The math agrees and disagrees. On one hand, if a DI can gain an edge, bet the edge. On the other hand, the math says most hands are no different than a randy hand. In other words, it's likely the next hand will be short. Psychologically and physiologically, it makes sense to follow the advice. So, without a clear mathematical reason to not follow it, it makes sense to take your profit and get out of the casino. But are you leaving?

I agree with all of the above.

Personally, I feel that the decision comes down to a personal blend of
1)size of bankroll
2) Importance of table time to you
3) Risk tolerance.

Even if you have a DI advantage it can take significant bankroll to survive the cold spells that you will have. I have 720 roll books of casino rolls with a SRR in the 9's where I struggled to make much money and SRR books below 6 where I made a ton of money just because of the texture of where the sevens showed their face. 720 of your rolls in the casino at a table with 3 players is somewhere around 20 hours of play.

If your bankroll is small and/or your risk tolerance is small and table time is important to you, "take me down" or a regression should be a more important part of your game plan. If you're someone who can walk into a casino and walk out after tossing 1 big hand or walk after they hit their loss limit even if they've only been there a few minutes, it's less important.

Posted: **Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:18 am**

In poker profitable players do:

-leave on a bad day.
-stay on a good day.

If you take profit and run on a good day, you have a strategy that won’t hold the long run.

Now I don’t say you give it back, but you lock a profit and keep a small risk to go. Hell I once did 2600$ on a good run starting with 15$ five. Just keeping one bet or two up that you progress from is a winner. Staying out of a good run cuz you have profit will kill you when the bad run hits you.

Posted: **Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:56 pm**

Yeah, I didn't get it either.

Posted: **Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:46 pm**

Just saying, if you leave everytime you’re up quickly and never test your luck smartly, you’re going to miss the homeruns. Then when the bad hits...it hurts a shitload more.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:16 pm**

My exit strategy? When my personal time is up? and wifey’s Calling me up lol.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:50 pm**

DanF wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:16 pm My exit strategy? When my personal time is up? and wifey’s Calling me up lol.

Stop repeating yourself DanF. We all know those are one and the same

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:12 pm**

My time is never up and my wife never calls. I call her when I'm leaving the casino so she can run the naked dancing boys off before I get home, but that's about it.

Posted: **Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:23 am**

Yeah well my kids are 3yo & 4 months old, so believe me: she calls LoL.

But usually, I play 1-3 hours and leave. Unless I win fast and game drop dead or rolls never end

Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

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