Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Heavy wrote:I'm completely confused now.

The house edge on the DP bet is essentially 1.4% (rounding). Assuming a $10 game you're talking about a "cost" of that bet of .14 cents. Depending on the house payout (31 - 1, 30 - 1, or 29 - 1) you're looking at from 11.15 to 16.67% house edge on that buck bet. The fact that you combine two bets on the same play does not reduce the house's edge. Each bet stands on its own mathematically. Adding prop hedges adds to your total cost to play.

Combining bets can reduce the per resolution house edge if you convert the bet into a 1-roll proposition. For example, MENSA advises to bet in the "Anything but 7" system:

5- place $5
6- place $6
8- place $6
field- $5
total= $22 at risk if a 7 comes

If a 6 or 8 comes, you win $7 but lose $5 on the field = +2
If a 5 comes, you win $7 but lose $5 on the field = +2
If a 3,4,9,10 or 11 comes, you win $5 on the field
If a 12 comes, you win $10 on the field
If a 2 comes, you win $15 on the field

2 = 1 x 15 = 15
3 = 2 x 5 = 10
4 = 3 x 5 = 15
5 = 4 x 2 = 8
6 = 5 x 2 = 10
7 = 6 x -22 = -132
8 = 5 x 2 = 10
9 = 4 x 5 = 20
10 = 3 x 5 = 15
11 = 2 x 5 = 10
12 = 1 x 10 = 10

Expectancy = -$9 over 36 rolls at $22 per roll. 9/792 = 1.136%

So the house edge is 1.136% per roll even though every individual bet made has a higher house edge as commonly understood.

The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.

However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll because the combination bet either wins (anything but a 7 comes) or it loses (a 7 comes). This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.

Source: http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/ ... g-systems/

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Back to the doey don't, you can reduce the house edge pre-odds to less than 1% by adding the $1 12 insurance bet to a $30 doey don't as described above. This holds true for any doey-don't where the base wager is 30 times the insurance bet.

For a $10 doey don't, however, the house edge climbs to nearly 3% by betting $1 on the 12. In other words, the more insurance you take relative to your base bet above the 30:1 guideline, the worse off you are.

Good old Oscar's Grind. If you don't know what it is . . . this is the thread for you.

I knew people that tried to use Oscar for Blackjack. Ugh.

I happened on this discussion by kinky dink when I was thinking of a husband and wife. Without using odds, I thought what if a husband and wife bet opposite. He bets do and she bets don't. My wife is always saying "don't" anyway so seems natural. And then run a $1 oscar on top of the initial bet. On both sides. Yes the odds will be what the house odds will be but I just wondered how this would play out and if anyone ever tried it. Someone must have. After the progression is implemented the bets no longer offset.

The odds applied to Oscar as well. He just died before the long run.

If you ask me, a losing bet is a losing bet. You don’t chase losses, you hold until you can press winnings to profit and overcome losses.

All the negative progressions will bite your ass.
All the protection bet cost you profits.

Paroli system is a base of what makes sense in gambling, altho a bit too aggressive. You can modify it and make a gambling system that can beat almost any game in the casino.

In theory the game with most streaks is baccarat. So it is the game you have most chance of profit. Next is craps, a lot more fun to play. Next is Blackjack, but in blackjack you need to know your moves and it helps to keep a certain count which isn’t easy !