Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

"there's nothing like the feeling you get when a hop bet comes home"

Yes Sir! Exactly.

irish wrote:

Overall on myself and the other shooters setting for 12's, I bet and hit the horn on over 60% of those rolls.

Bullshit. Complete and utter bullshit. Instead of 16.7% of the time (plus a few percentage points if you can influence the dice), you're throwing them over 60%? That's something like 3.6 TIMES higher than expected.

REALLY?

Bwahahahhhaa. You should own a casino, or an entire country by now.....

You understand that if your claim were true (it's not), that you could also influence, say, the seven (also expected at 16.7%), after the come out, by an equivalent amount? You could shoot from the don't and 21.6 of 36 rolls would be a seven. That's an SRR of 1.6

Yeah, listen to this guy, and not the "naysayers." Good grief.

You are no doubt aware that he stated that was on his last trip, and it was 14 of 22 which is 63%, you yourself mention variance and now you're saying the game has so little variance that no one could ever toss a horn number in 14 of 22 comeout cycles in a trip? I've seen enough variance to know that almost any odd thing you can imagine can happen over a short period if you are at a table long enough... and I reiterate, he didn't state that he was 60% lifetime, merely on that trip.

I've had trips in which a lot stranger things than that happened, such as how one night I managed to not toss even one 8 in a total of about 4+ hrs, I tossed seven hard 4s in one hand before tossing an easy 4, the night I tossed almost no primary face hits, the night I managed to toss a 7 about every 4th roll and nearly 90% were both die off axis 7s . The point is variance happens, it happens often... that is why the game can make or lose a fortune betting the same way on the same table 2 different nights. I don't really think its fair to say the man is bullshitting because he said on one trip in 22 come out sets he did something 14 times. If that were the case you'd have to tell Heavy he was bullshitting about some of the hands he's shot that have been witnessed by people on this board, and you'd have to tell some other people they didn't have the hands I witnessed them have as well.

gargoil wrote:

CrapsForever wrote: You'd be shocked that a forum member that I played with in the last 2 months had a 38 roll hand, with 30 Fields, 11 Horns, and 10 10's and the only bet he had was the inside #'s.

I am shocked. That you actually know a forum member and he actually played with you. Based on your advice yea you may have gotten lucky but that stack of 100 dollar bills in your pocket is going to disappear on the long run. Now if you are smart enough to stop playing and enjoy the winnings then good for you. I read your posts and have a feeling you will be back at the table so put 2 and 2 together.

Oh and by the way Irish (or MR. Irish to you) knows more about the game and how it needs to play than you and your generation before and after you regardless of how big that 100 dollar bill stack is.

Why would you find it odd that he'd know a forum member or that one would play craps with him? First of all I can think of several that if I allowed things like personality or politics to come into play I would avoid whatever state they played in like the plague, but the fact is we routinely play at tables with people we like and with people we would rather not know. Personally I can think of a few people I've been on the table with that if I could've I'd have stomped their guts out on general principle but the fact is if a man can make me money I don't really have to love, like, or even tolerate him as long as I make money off him.

As for the other part, respect is earned... it also is usually a 2 way street where it is not received it is seldom given and I can't fault a man for not being overly happy at being called a liar. In your neck of the woods those used to be what was called fighting words, [specifically]

"Georgia Code - Crimes and Offenses - Title 16, Section 16-11-39

(a) A person commits the offense of disorderly conduct when such person commits any of the following:

(3) Without provocation, uses to or of another person in such other person´s presence, opprobrious or abusive words which by their very utterance tend to incite to an immediate breach of the peace, that is to say, words which as a matter of common knowledge and under ordinary circumstances will, when used to or of another person in such other person´s presence, naturally tend to provoke violent resentment, that is, words commonly called 'fighting words'; or

(b) Any person who commits the offense of disorderly conduct shall be guilty of a misdemeanor.

(c) This Code section shall not be deemed or construed to affect or limit the powers of counties or municipal corporations to adopt ordinances or resolutions prohibiting disorderly conduct within their respective limits."

As fate would have it the use of "fighting words" was also the defense against the charge of assault and battery if you beat the hell out of someone that used them on you [granted this is when honor actually was more than a word in a dictionary]. So, you see it might be a matter of honor if you think about it. If someone called you a liar, would Mr. be the first word that comes to mind for them? Also are you saying that Heavy who has been known to bet a horn knows nothing about the game or are you merely abusing only one person at this moment?

Okay this thing is getting blown way out of proportion so let me re-explain my post. I will try to use small words.

Based on previous posts and comments about strategies played, I said I was shocked that he knew form members that will play with him. BASED ON HIS WAY TO PLAY..... Nothing against any personality. I never met the guy and don't know who the hell he is. I just know that based on his LAST TRIP, he got lucky. So I said take the money and run.

Now as far as respect, I never said anything about it. All I said was that Irish has been doing strategies for a long time and if he call Bullshit on something than I suggest you follow the smell and clean the shit up. You take it for whatever it's worth. For me personally this particular individual (Avatar boy) has helped my game and stopped the bleeding. I was giving away money at the casinos. Him and Heavy helped my game (again this is me personally) so when they say something I strongly suggest you listen.

On a separate note shunkaha, I have read your posts on certain things and I know you have experience in this too so I am not counting you out. Based on your experience you should know where Irish was coming from. Re-read the post and think about what he was trying to tell him.

So again not trying to attack anyone on the forum or start anything. I was stating opinions just like everyone else.

irish wrote:So, you're saying, everyone should "forget the house edge" based on the results of 22 throws? Granted, I thought he was implying a larger sample, but it really doesn't matter. It's bad advice. You mention Heavy bets the horn. In this thread, he stated:
"But you have to use a little common sense with that stuff. Dedicate a small portion of your trip bankroll to prop play if you want, but make correct low vig bets with the majority of your action. Otherwise, that prop dog is going to bite you."

I'm not saying forget house edge, I am saying the man said he did a certain thing a certain number of times out of 22 and you called him a liar. Also he said he only did it on comeouts which makes it a limited thing. I am only saying calling him a liar is a bit harsh.

One of the things I'd like to see us NOT do on the forum is engage in name-calling. As Gargoil has pointed out - calling someone a "liar" is a bit harsh. Unless, of course, you are talking about a public figure. Let's take, for instance, my claim that I tossed six twelves in a row one night. The claim is absolutely true, but since the odds of that happening are something like 1 in 1.8 Billion it's understandable that someone might call "bullshit." Particularly since I am a purveyor of dice control training. I think one has to look at a posters total body of work before they call bullshit on someone. In my case, for something like sixteen years I've been posting trip reports "warts and all." When I lose my butt - you know about it. If all I can manage is a $37 win over a two hour session - you hear about it. If I shoot the lights out with back-to-back hour-and-a-half hands - I tell you all the details. And sometimes there are other forum members along to witness whatever took place.

My experience has been that when a poster's total body of work takes on a fairy tail aspect - what we're reading is bullshit. This is, in fact, the subject of an article I'm working on called "Advantage Liars." A few years ago there was a group of posters on another forum who told lie after lie after lie about yours truly, Irish, MP, Dice Coach, and those associated with us. Ultimately it was determined that these posters were all the same person - a member of a competitive group who was out to discredit us for business reasons. Then there's the guy who can never be in second place. If one of his students had a 60 number hand - reports would spring out that he rolled a 63 the next day. If one of his coaches rolled an 81 - he would follow with an 86 within the week. I refer to guys like this as Advantage Liars. They don't lie because it feeds their egos - they would have to believe their own lies for that to work. They lie to bring in more business. They lie because it leads to financial gain.

In the case in point on this thread - I have to ask myself what the benefit is to the poster if he's - pardon my Texican - making this shit up? He's not giving lessons. He's not selling books or videos. He's just telling you what's happening with his toss results and how he is profiting from it. Sooooo, I tend to believe most of what he's saying. Okay, admittedly it is human nature to embellish a story in order to present yourself in a better light. That's why I qualified the above by staying I believe most of what he's saying. At the end of the day - what does it matter. Unless the poster has led someone down the primrose path with his betting suggestions, etc. and ended up costing that player a ton of money - I'd say it is what it is. And if you as a player are tempted to try these strategies - I'll just say let the buyer beware. Limit your action and test the waters. But don't test the depth of the water with both feet.

Forget house edge? LOL. Frank Scoblete and I have been having a discussion on just that topic over on crapsforum.com. My opinion? Anything can and will happen over the short run. Over the long run - you'd damn sure better remember where the best bets are and make them. That's your bread and butter. The other stuff is just entertainment.