Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

freak wrote:

gargoil wrote:... The most I stand to lose is $64.00 but on a long hand (40+) I stand to win big.

The Garg One.

So what would you expect to win on this hand and leave on the table starting with $64 across?

Again it depends on the box numbers that roll. My 4/10 would be pressed to $100.00, the 5/9 pressed to $140.00 and the 6/8 pressed to $120.00. That's a total of $720.00 left on the table. However the 4/10 would pay me $200.00, The 5/9 would pay me $200.00 and the 6/8 would pay me $140.00

On a 40 roll hand I expect to be paid on my box numbers at least 3 times after my max press. That's not counting the payouts while pressing
- on the 4/10 the press would be 15,25,50 (gets me to 100 with 75 in the rack). The place bets would go from 10 to 25,50,100
- on the 5/9 the press would be 5,20,35,70 ( gets me to 140 with 60 in the rack). The place bets would go from 10 to 15,35,70,140
- on the 6/9 the press would be 12,6,12,18,60 ( gets me to 120 with 70 in the rack). The place bets would go from 12 to 24,30,42,60,120

If my calculation is correct that's 24 press moves for all 6 box numbers.

freak wrote:4 - 5 - 4P - 8 - 5 - 3 - 6 - 10 - 8P - 9 - 5 - 5 - 11 - 9P - 7 - 5 - 8 - 9 - 11 - 4 - 8 - 6 - 5P - 6 - 9 - 5 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 8 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 6P - 7 - 7 - 11 - 4 - 5 - 8 - 3 - 5 - 2 - 8 - 3 - 7

... I'd be interested to hear your projected earnings and losses in detail if anyone wants to take the time. And/or critiques of my play. Thanks again for all the feedback.

My brain hurts. The number crunching after a long day at work is grueling. Here is my best guess at my play. Give or take some $1 Hardways for parlaying. My apologies in advance if there are any errors in the numbers.

Brackets [--] reflect NET of bets/payouts.


Start with $10 PL bet and a $5 World/$1 Ace-Deuce [-$16]

(4) $20 odds, Place Bet 5, 6, 8 [-$54]
(5) Same Bet [+$14]
(4P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds [+80]
PL [-$10]
World/$1 Ace-Deuce [-$6]
(8) Odds [-$20]
Move $12 Eight to Nine [+$2]
(5) Press to $25 [-$1]
(3) n/a
(6) Same Bet [+$14]
(10) n/a
(8P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds [+$64]
PL [-$10]
World/$1 Ace-Deuce [-$6]
(9) Odds [-$20]
Move $10 Nine back to Eight and make whole [-$2]
Place bet ten [-$10]
Place bet four [-$10]
(5) Pays $35, press to $35 [+$25]
(5) Pays $49, press to $50 [+$24]
(11) n/a
(9P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds [+$70]
PL [-$10]
World/$1 Ace-Deuce [-$6]
(7) Press World $5, replace $1Ace-Deuce [+$4]
(5) Odds $20. Move $50 on five to $25 each on four and ten, press six $6, press eight $6, and Place nine $10 [-$22]
(8) Press one unit to $24. [+15]
(9) Press to $25 [-$1]
(11) n/a
(4) Same bet [+49]
(8) Press to $30 [+22]
(6) Press one unit to $24[+$15]
(5P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds [+$70]
PL [-$10]
World/$1 Ace-Deuce [-$6]
(6) Move $24 six to five and make it $25. Odds $20. [-$21]
(9) Press to $35 [+$25]
(5) Press to $35 [+$25]
(10) Same Bet [+$49]
(4) Press to $50 [+24]
(8) Press to $42 [+$23]
(8) Press to $60 {+31]
(3) n/a
(2) n/a
(5) Press to $50 [+$34]
(6P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds [+$64]
PL [-$10]
World/$1 Ace-Deuce [-$6]
(7) Press World $5, replace $1Ace-Deuce [+$4]
(7) Press World $5, replace $1Ace-Deuce, Press PL $5 [-$1]
(11) Press World $5, Regress PL by $5 [+$25]
(4) Take $50 four down. Odds $20. Place six for $30 [+$0]
(5) Press to $75 [+$45]
(8) Press to $90 [+$40]
(3) n/a
(5) Press to $100 [+$80]
(2) n/a
(8) Press to $120 [+$75]
(3) n/a
(7) n/a

=====================
Left on table: $340 total.
4- $10 PL + $20 odds.
5- $ 100
6- $ 30
8- $ 120
9- $ 35
10- $ 25
=====================

Total profit in rack $754.00

Thanks for the detail BD. I notice that you don't press your odds on the point as the hand progresses but you do press the placed bets. Sometimes I do and sometimes I don't. This time I did and while it paid nicely on the early points, I lost $175 on that last four that she didn't hit. Any thoughts on that? Do you sometimes press the PL odds as the hand continues?

I don't get to the casinos as much as I did when we lived in Arkansas. Seven times in 2013 and six times so far in 2014.

On six of those 13 trips I had rolls in excess of 40. The rolls were 42, 46, 42, 45, 42, and 60.. My winnings ranged from a high of $1,067 0n the roll of 60 to a low of $275 0n one of $2.75. The ave earning per roll was $10.65 with a range of $6.11/$117.78.

I don't track what I have on the table when I seven out.

Noah

freak wrote:Any thoughts on that? Do you sometimes press the PL odds as the hand continues?

Typically if a shooter has made their first point and I have recouped my initial outlay, I will slowly press up
my PL odds by one unit up to the (3x 4x 5x) max after each paying dice toss result. I usually play on the
strip, so I usually don't see 10x, 20x or 100x odds tables. Although it would be fun to see one of those
payout after a long roll.

Come Bet Replacement Spread Play $820 buy-in $10 Table
Pass line Progression Basic Strategy Single Odds

The goal is to spread the BOX as numbers are tossed. Let the dice handicap the numbers, but just 2 PLACE NUMBERS until those are paid for. Once a pass is made the previous point number is then PLACED as a new point is established.
Lock-up rule 1: If the new POINT has a place bet that bet is taken down and locked up.
Lock-up rule 2: If a craps number is thrown during a COME-OUT all place bets are reduced to play minimum. The PASS LINE progression also starts back at play minimum.
The dice control chip movement and take all hunch/guess work out of the betting. The passive press 50% press schedule is used from the 2nd press on to TABLE MAX if the dice flow that way. Using place bets in lieu of come bets takes out the chance of craps taking them out and the nasty loss of all come bets on a come out 7. Come out 7s are a friend of the PLP. Risk: up to $80 against the 7. If the things go your way you get some early repeaters and reduce the $80 risk to 7.


(4) No Bet {$720 In Rack}
(5) Inside # Place 5 [$25] since the 5 hit {$695 In Rack}
(4P) Just Qualified as a Pass line shooter [PL $10] {$685 In Rack}
(8) Odds [-$10] {$675 In Rack}
(5) +$35 Press to [$35] {$700 In Rack}
(3) n/a
(6) Place 6 [$30] {$670 In Rack}
(10) n/a
(8P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds+$44 PL [$15] {$714 In Rack}
(9) Odds [-$16] Place bet 8 [$30] {$668 In Rack}
(5) Pays $49 press to [$50] {$702 In Rack}
(5) Pays $70, press to [$75] {$747 In Rack}
(11) n/a
(9P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds +$70 PL [$20] {$797 In Rack}
(7) Parlay PL [$40] {$797 In Rack}
(5) No Odds [Rack $75 that was on the 5] place bet 9 [$25] {$847 In Rack}
(8) Pays $35 Press to [$42] {$870 in Rack}
(9) Pays $35 Press to [$35] {$895 In Rack}
(11) n/a
(4) n/a
(8) pays $49 Press to $60 [+9] {$926 In Rack}
(6) Pays $35 Press to $42[+$9] {$949 In Rack}
(5P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds +$80 PL [$25] {$1004 In Rack}
(6) Odds [-$25] [Rack the $42 that was on the 6] place bet 5 [$25]{$1021 In Rack}
(9) pays $49 Press to [$50] {$1055 In Rack}
(5) Pays $35 Press to [$35] {$1080 In Rack}
(10) n/a
(4) n/a 2nd 4 Place [$20] {$1060 In Rack}
(8) pays $70 Press to $90 {$1100 In Rack}
(8) Pays $105 Press to $120 {$1200 In Rack}
(3) n/a
(2) n/a
(5) pays $49 Press to $50 {$1234 In Rack}
(6P) Collect/Pickup PL & Odds +$110 PL [$30] {$1314 In Rack}
(7) Pays $30 Parlay to [$60]
(7) Pays $60 +$120 completed parlay move up one level PL
PL [-$35] {$1434 In Rack}
(11) Parlay to $70
(4) No odds [Rack the $20 that was on the 4] Place 6 for [$30] {$1424 In Rack}
(5) Pays $70 Press to [$75] {$1469 In Rack}
(8) Pays $140 Press to [$180] {$1569 In Rack}
(3) n/a
(5) Pays $105 Press to [$125] {$1624 In Rack}
(2) n/a
(8) Pays $210 Press to [$300] {$1714 In Rack}
(3) n/a
(7) OUT

Bets left out $575

$994 profit on a buy-in of $720. In the beginning I’m hanging out there a bit using the small press to pay for each bet. Had I used a small regression I would have been paid for 2 rolls faster (or so), but I would be pressing up from the basement. No Lock-up triggers were rolled towards the end of the hand, which left some $ on the Lay-out. If you get some passes you take some chips off the table. In the event of a monster you’re in position to crush it while still taking chip off the table along the way.

Caught a randie today that I didn't start out betting on on a $10 table, but started betting on him after he made his first point. He wound up with a hand of forty but only made two different points. 6 three times and 9 once. I was down $111 when his roll started but cashed out at $805 on a $400 buy in when his roll was over. Left $175 on the table.

I had only one roll of 9 that I lost single digit on.

Had played earlier on a $15 table first roll of 5 lost almost $100 with no rolls that I collected on. After the only other player rolled I had a 14 roll that got me up a low two digit win . Decided I was comfortable at a $15 table and hadn't a plan of how to bet at that lever so checked out a winner.

Before that $15 table, I had played at a $5 table that was very full. Won single digit amount on my first roll of 5 and then later won a teen amount on a roll of 9.

Some using the MP204 on me would have lost $155 on the roll on 5 and then made $83 on the roll of 9.

On the rolls of 5 and 14 MP204 would have lost 204 on the 5 and won $108 on the 14..

On my roll of 9 would have made $54.

Noah

Thanks for all the feedback. It's interesting to see that most plays that make good profit off of a hand like this leave about 40%-60% of the earnings on the table. Bry's play does better than mine or BankerDude because (primarily) he starts with larger bets in the $25 range versus our starting bets in the $10 -$12 range (after regression). Otherwise the percentage of win versus left-on-on-the table appears to be quite similar between a lot of plays.

So looking at this from another perspective, under what conditions would I NOT profit on a 40+ hand:

1) If I didn't place any bets and just watched. (Trend-gauging-bettors-block).

2) If I didn't have any action until it's too late in the hand to recover my investment.

3) If I'm betting from the don't and my numbers get picked off. (It's possible to do well from the don't on a long hand provided numbers don't repeat until after CO 7s make traveling DC bets pay).

4) If I'm only making PL bets and the hand is long but without ever hitting the point.

5) If I'm betting an iron cross but only roll 5s, 6s and 8s.

6) If I only have a few placed bets and those numbers are not the ones rolling. For instance I place the 6&8 but only roll 4s, 5s, 9s and 10s.

7) If I only have a few placed bets and those numbers are not rolling because I keep moving my bets to follow a "trend". For instance I place the 6&8 but only roll outside numbers. I move to the 5 & 9 then start rolling 6s and 8s.

8) If I have a combination of placed and PL bets but roll predominantly horn numbers.

9) If I use all my winning to press and never take profit off of the table.

10) If I have lost so much on previous hands that the profits from this great hand were not enough to cover previous losses.

Based on these the mini-MP remains a pretty good play for my action-desires and win goals. The only thing that really kills me are PSOs. And as painful as it is to hit a quick string of PSOs, it's even more painful to lose via some of the other reasons above.

Thoughts?

Freak, I think your NOT profit analysis is spot on.

I've been looking at the MiniMP, but even at $96 across I still find it a little much for my betting comfort at this point in time. Like you said, PSO's can be a real killer. I do like the idea of a regression play, maybe focusing on 2 or 3 signature place bets with an initial Come bet to follow the trend. I'm looking at a few different formulas to keep the amount in my comfort zone. Using a variation of the half-kelly, I want to be able to manage the bankroll and keep the amounts that I bet within an acceptable risk of ruin (if I'm phrasing that correctly). I would use this strategy only when I am tossing the dice, minimizing my action on random rollers. Irish's suggestion of laying off the trash number bets (2,3,11,12) on randies would also be incorporated. A plan that uses no more than $75 initially on myself is the goal. It's not too far from $96. Of course, as my DI skills improve I can increase that amount as the bankroll grows. I hope to pick Dice Coach, Heavy's, and others brains for some golden nuggets at the upcoming Veterans craps weekend.

Some might argue that if you have a proven advantage at DI and you are not betting as such to take advantage of it is foolish. I would argue that making bets in excess of your bankroll's ability to support those bets is even more foolish. I think flexibility in a game plan is advisable, that way as the bankroll grows you can increase your action, if the bankroll draws down a bit, you can decrease your action.

Bankerdude80 wrote: Some might argue that if you have a proven advantage at DI and you are not betting as such to take advantage of it is foolish. I would argue that making bets in excess of your bankroll's ability to support those bets is even more foolish. I think flexibility in a game plan is advisable, that way as the bankroll grows you can increase your action, if the bankroll draws down a bit, you can decrease your action.

Well said.
The Parameters set in this exercise $1000 session buy-in on a $10 table are outside of my Kelly/BR ratio. $800ish is pushing my limits ATM. That is why I scaled from 1k to the $800 play; to keep it realistic. I'd bet that way on myself and other members of our crew, but not just anyone. If I had $600ish session BR I'd be at the $18-$15 Place/$10 PL enough for 10 shooters. Session BR 5-7% of total BR rule. BR management determines my play. I.E. 12k Total BR= $620 buy-in, which needs to be divided up for 10 shooters. As BR grows The play will grow. MP204 should have $1700-2040 Buy-in and that would need a Total BR $25,500ish. I know that $25,500 can be pushed, but BR Management Rules bent are soon BR Management broken. Then Risk of Ruin^^^. I can fund $60-80 a hand, but not $100-200 yet. Tried it and flirted with disaster; lesson learned. I play my play with no fear and no need to adjust. If I have 3 horrible hands I'm only half way to loss limit. I'd count up front/back rack, take a break, come back refreshed/focused to start up where I left off.

Just because I can "No Bet" several players doesn't mean I sit on my hands if a nice hand starts to develop. One of my first trips to Biloxi I was sticking to the no randie rule heck I'd read MP's book. Well I didn't want to jinx an awesome roll by betting on it and it was a randie anyhow. Damn! She finally 7out and the dice come to me and I PSO -$110 inside. Dice get back to Ms. White Dress and she starts again and I ease out there pay as I go and color out +$15 time for bed. Over that weekend the ISR didn't quite work out for me. I ended up almost even. ISR not steep enough and press play not dialed in yet and I had some nice hands.

Anyhow good thread Freak. I'd like to see Dorks hero # played out with this hand.

So, we pick our poison and pick our hero. With any MP across type of play the poison is the PSO. The hero is the fact that you can make a profit off of a relatively mundane table. 4-6 roll hands do just fine. Longer hands do great. Only PSOs hurt. If you do a one-count you just move the pain point one roll down stream. On average you'll miss playing about 17% of the hands. You watch the PSOs go by harmlessly and keep your position at the table 17% longer. But if the hand only rolls one or two more box numbers after the first "qualifying" one you still lose.

If we try going up small and then growing up and out, then the poison is all short rolls. PSOs up to a 3-4 hit hands are still losers. The only hero is the long roll that pays off our initial investment.

If we try an ISR strategy off of just a few numbers - for instance a $42 6&8, regress to $44 inside after one hit - then our hero can be a really short hand so long as it rolls a 6 or 8 right after the point is set. The poison is still a PSO but also a long hand of outside numbers.

If we try to "read the table trend" then the hero is repeating numbers (come bettor's dream) and the poison is non-repeating numbers (DC bettor's dream).

I think what drew me to this game from the start was that it appeals to my natural instincts to problem-solve. For every session there is a solution. There is always a way you COULD HAVE played that session and made a profit. And so after each session my brain get's enticed to solve the puzzle of what strategy WOULD have worked. The problem is that when we take that solution to the next session, the next session is different and so rarely does that previous solution apply to today's session. Certainly there are approaches that are less likely to fail than others. And what discussions like this do for me is help remind me that there are many viable approaches. I have to choose: Which hurts more? Loosing fast because I took a big chance on a volatile play and hoped the volatility went in my favor quickly, or losing slowly because I tried to read the trend and/or minimize volatility, or to only lose a little but miss the chance to win BIG because my approach didn't allow me to profit from the good rolls that actually did come along.

It is a quandary. L and I are still in debate about what exact play we will use this weekend.

Finally got a 40+ hand live. Won $825. Left $140 on the table.

Answered your own question,didn't you?

Sweet: congrats!

Mini-MP?

Nice work!

CONGRATS "L" AND Freak,