MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Hi VinylGirl,
(Please note that this is cross-posted from VinylGirl's excellent trip report thread)
I hope you don’t mind, but I ran your recent in-casino roll-stats against my MP $204-Across Regression to see how they’d fare if someone was standing at your table and wanted to take advantage of your group’s shooting, but didn’t know in advance exactly what your best-advantage numbers were.
You’ve probably run into similar situations where you walk up to a table…see a skilled-shooter whom you don’t know, carefully setting and gently tossing the dice…and wondered how best to take profitable advantage of their skills.
My approach is to apply the MP $204-Across…collect two equal-value paying-hits…regress everything down to $44-Inside…and from there, apply a Passive-Aggressive press-schedule that uses a collect some/press-some approach from there on out until the end of their hand.
Next skilled-shooter…lather…rinse…repeat.
Here’s how I would have fared with your group:
HARD10-8(H)PT,4(H) 7OUT…-$155
VINYL-6PT,10(H),9,11,3,3,12,8,9,6PT,8PT,4,8(H)PT, 6PT,10(H),11,8,8,6PT,5PT,7OUT…+$151
HARD10-5PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-9PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-9PT,4(H),6,8,5,11,7OUT…+$71
HARD10-4PT,8,10(H),8,6,11,7OUT…+$70
SR1-BROTHER-4PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-10(H)PT,11, 4(H),8,9,7OUT…+$63
HARD10-5PT,9,10,9,9,5PT,3,5PT,7OUT…+$83
DAD(SO)8PT,5,2,5,5,3,9,9,8PT,6PT,5,4,8,12,6PT,10(H)PT,6,5,6,4,10PT,5PT,8,6,9,10(H),6(H),6,10(H),7OUT…+$370
SR1-(BROTHER)7FLW,7FLW,5PT,10,2,7OUT…-$155
VINYL-8(H)PT,4,6,11,7OUT…+$54
HARD10-7FLW,6PT,8,11,3,7OUT…-$155
SR1-BROTHER-8PT,4,5,8PT,5PT,9,10(H), 7 OUT…+$71
VINYL-3,4,3,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-6PT,10,6PT,9PT,11,3,9PT,7FLW,8PT,10,12,4,3,9,7OUT…+$74
DR-11FLW,10PT,2,6,8,6,6,8,4,7OUT…+$111
HARD10-7FLW,8PT, 6,10,9,6,7OUT…+$80
VINYL-10PT,2,6,8,6,6,8,6,4,7OUT…+$102
SO-4PT,4PT,6PT,9,8,12,8,10,12,7OUT…+$71
DR-7FLW,8(H)PT,11,6,7OUT…-$155
HARD10-5PT,6,8,3,11,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-4PT,4(H)PT,8PT,6(H),8PT,9PT,12,9PT,8(H)PT,5,2,8(H)PT,9PT,10(H),9PT,5PT, 10,9,7OUT…+$125
SR(BROTHER)-10(H)PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-4PT,6,6,10.8.7OUT…+$62
SO-7FLW,8PT,4(H),10(H),5,5,5,8PT,8PT,8PT,11FLW,6PT,10.6PT,9PT,2,6,10(H),8(H),8,11,9PT,9PT,7OUT…+$196
SO-11FLW,9PT,5,4(H).9PT,7FLW,5PT,4,9,8,9,9,7OUT…+$141
DL-9PT,2,4(H),3,2,8,3,6,5,10,3,9PT,5PT,4,11,6,3,2,9,7OUT…+$100
SO-5PT,3,8,5PT,10PT,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-4PT,7OUT…-$204
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$2103
Gross-loss……………………………..................................…...…...-$1844
Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……...........+$259
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4180
MP
(Please note that this is cross-posted from VinylGirl's excellent trip report thread)
I hope you don’t mind, but I ran your recent in-casino roll-stats against my MP $204-Across Regression to see how they’d fare if someone was standing at your table and wanted to take advantage of your group’s shooting, but didn’t know in advance exactly what your best-advantage numbers were.
You’ve probably run into similar situations where you walk up to a table…see a skilled-shooter whom you don’t know, carefully setting and gently tossing the dice…and wondered how best to take profitable advantage of their skills.
My approach is to apply the MP $204-Across…collect two equal-value paying-hits…regress everything down to $44-Inside…and from there, apply a Passive-Aggressive press-schedule that uses a collect some/press-some approach from there on out until the end of their hand.
Next skilled-shooter…lather…rinse…repeat.
Here’s how I would have fared with your group:
HARD10-8(H)PT,4(H) 7OUT…-$155
VINYL-6PT,10(H),9,11,3,3,12,8,9,6PT,8PT,4,8(H)PT, 6PT,10(H),11,8,8,6PT,5PT,7OUT…+$151
HARD10-5PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-9PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-9PT,4(H),6,8,5,11,7OUT…+$71
HARD10-4PT,8,10(H),8,6,11,7OUT…+$70
SR1-BROTHER-4PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-10(H)PT,11, 4(H),8,9,7OUT…+$63
HARD10-5PT,9,10,9,9,5PT,3,5PT,7OUT…+$83
DAD(SO)8PT,5,2,5,5,3,9,9,8PT,6PT,5,4,8,12,6PT,10(H)PT,6,5,6,4,10PT,5PT,8,6,9,10(H),6(H),6,10(H),7OUT…+$370
SR1-(BROTHER)7FLW,7FLW,5PT,10,2,7OUT…-$155
VINYL-8(H)PT,4,6,11,7OUT…+$54
HARD10-7FLW,6PT,8,11,3,7OUT…-$155
SR1-BROTHER-8PT,4,5,8PT,5PT,9,10(H), 7 OUT…+$71
VINYL-3,4,3,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-6PT,10,6PT,9PT,11,3,9PT,7FLW,8PT,10,12,4,3,9,7OUT…+$74
DR-11FLW,10PT,2,6,8,6,6,8,4,7OUT…+$111
HARD10-7FLW,8PT, 6,10,9,6,7OUT…+$80
VINYL-10PT,2,6,8,6,6,8,6,4,7OUT…+$102
SO-4PT,4PT,6PT,9,8,12,8,10,12,7OUT…+$71
DR-7FLW,8(H)PT,11,6,7OUT…-$155
HARD10-5PT,6,8,3,11,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-4PT,4(H)PT,8PT,6(H),8PT,9PT,12,9PT,8(H)PT,5,2,8(H)PT,9PT,10(H),9PT,5PT, 10,9,7OUT…+$125
SR(BROTHER)-10(H)PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-4PT,6,6,10.8.7OUT…+$62
SO-7FLW,8PT,4(H),10(H),5,5,5,8PT,8PT,8PT,11FLW,6PT,10.6PT,9PT,2,6,10(H),8(H),8,11,9PT,9PT,7OUT…+$196
SO-11FLW,9PT,5,4(H).9PT,7FLW,5PT,4,9,8,9,9,7OUT…+$141
DL-9PT,2,4(H),3,2,8,3,6,5,10,3,9PT,5PT,4,11,6,3,2,9,7OUT…+$100
SO-5PT,3,8,5PT,10PT,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-4PT,7OUT…-$204
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$2103
Gross-loss……………………………..................................…...…...-$1844
Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……...........+$259
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4180
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Our friend, Operator, was kind enough to share some of his recent toss-stats (where he was dealing with a pernicious double-pitching problem); with a view to seeing how they’d fare under the MP $204-Across Regression betting-regimen even given his toss-maladies.
Let’s find out:
co 10 6 9 8 9 4 5 8h 11 10 co 4 7…+$89
co 6h 9 8 5 9 11 11 9 9 2 6 co 8 6 2 4 4 9 9 10 7…+$204
co 7 11 8 4 7…-$155
co 8h 7…-$204
co3 co2 co 10 9 7…-$155
co 6h 5 9 8 9 8h 8 3 7…+$103
Co 9 5 8 8 9 co 6 7 dp…+$71
co 6 5 6 co 7 dp 7 co 6 3 5 9 5 6 co 8 3 7 dp…+$91
co 11 co 6 10 7……-$155
co 7 dp co 11 co 6 6 co 8 7 dp…-$155
co 3 co 12 co 8 9 7 dp…-$155
co 7 co9 4 3 12 9 co 12 co 9 11 9 co 5 5 co 12 co 5 4 7…+$72
co 4 7…-$204
co 5 8 5 co 7 co 9 9 co 8 6 9 4 9 12 5 7…+$116
co 9 3 9 co 7 co 5 6 11 7…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$800
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$1183
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……...........+$383
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3797
MP
Let’s find out:
co 10 6 9 8 9 4 5 8h 11 10 co 4 7…+$89
co 6h 9 8 5 9 11 11 9 9 2 6 co 8 6 2 4 4 9 9 10 7…+$204
co 7 11 8 4 7…-$155
co 8h 7…-$204
co3 co2 co 10 9 7…-$155
co 6h 5 9 8 9 8h 8 3 7…+$103
Co 9 5 8 8 9 co 6 7 dp…+$71
co 6 5 6 co 7 dp 7 co 6 3 5 9 5 6 co 8 3 7 dp…+$91
co 11 co 6 10 7……-$155
co 7 dp co 11 co 6 6 co 8 7 dp…-$155
co 3 co 12 co 8 9 7 dp…-$155
co 7 co9 4 3 12 9 co 12 co 9 11 9 co 5 5 co 12 co 5 4 7…+$72
co 4 7…-$204
co 5 8 5 co 7 co 9 9 co 8 6 9 4 9 12 5 7…+$116
co 9 3 9 co 7 co 5 6 11 7…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$800
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$1183
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……...........+$383
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3797
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
That double pitch will get you every time. ![Evil or Very Mad :evil:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
![Evil or Very Mad :evil:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
Rock On
M & M
M & M
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
I ran Operator’s 50 most-recent hands against the MP $204-Across Regression to see how they’d fare. I broke it down on a session-by-session basis; just the way he tossed them.
Here are the results…warts and all:
co 9 9 co 10 4 5 12 9 11 8 8 11 2 6 11 5 5 7…+$133
co9 8 7…-$155
co11co 7 co 6 8h 8h 4 7…+$54
co 12 co 10 12 9 4 6 9 10 co 7 8 2 11 4 2 7…+$71
co 8 12 3 4 9 9 6 8h co 9 11 4 6 11 7…+$88
co6 7…-$204
co 4 9 4 8 7…+$62
co7 co10 4 9 12 5 6 8 8 3 8 4 7…+$111
co 10 6 10 co 5 9 7…+$63
co 5 8 9 7…+$54
In many ways, Operator's session typifies how the MP-$204 works. It makes money on some DI hands, and loses money on others. OVERALL, it usually comes away with a decent-sized net-gain…and cumulatively over a multi-session basis; it usually adds substantial big-picture profits.
In other words, it does exactly what it was designed to do.
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$636
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$359
Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….............+$277
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4074
MP
Here are the results…warts and all:
co 9 9 co 10 4 5 12 9 11 8 8 11 2 6 11 5 5 7…+$133
co9 8 7…-$155
co11co 7 co 6 8h 8h 4 7…+$54
co 12 co 10 12 9 4 6 9 10 co 7 8 2 11 4 2 7…+$71
co 8 12 3 4 9 9 6 8h co 9 11 4 6 11 7…+$88
co6 7…-$204
co 4 9 4 8 7…+$62
co7 co10 4 9 12 5 6 8 8 3 8 4 7…+$111
co 10 6 10 co 5 9 7…+$63
co 5 8 9 7…+$54
In many ways, Operator's session typifies how the MP-$204 works. It makes money on some DI hands, and loses money on others. OVERALL, it usually comes away with a decent-sized net-gain…and cumulatively over a multi-session basis; it usually adds substantial big-picture profits.
In other words, it does exactly what it was designed to do.
![Cool 8-)](./images/smilies/icon_cool.gif)
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$636
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$359
Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….............+$277
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4074
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Here's a thought for you. Back in 2002 I put together a strategy I called the "Pyramid Place Bet Play." Many of you guys who purchased the DVD back around 2005 received this strategy in the package that accompanied the DVD back then. Essentially this was a $110 play with the bulk of the action where you'll get the most bang for your buck - $30 each on the six and eight. The five and nine were placed for $20 each and the four and ten for $10 each. Anyway, I we putting together the handouts for Biloxi next weekend and decided to include this play in the betting strategies. As I looked at it it occurred to me that in essence this was a scaled down version of MP's 204 across play - a low roller version if you will. Funny how two different guys essentially arrived at the same point coming at it from different directions.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
This is the next flight of roll-stats from Operator’s most-recent 50-hand toss-trial, where we’ve applied the MP-$204 on them to see how they work out.
Let’s jump right back in:
co7 co7 co 4 12 6 7…-$155
co 3 11 10 10 co6 7…-$155
co 9 4 12 8 7…+$54
co 9 10 10 4 7…+$54
co 11 6 6 co 6h 5 9 7…+$63
co 6 3 6h co5 3 9 12 7…+$54
6h 11 7…-$204
co 6 9 11 4 7…+$54
co8 11 5 11 6 7…+$54
co 8 10 4 8 co 12 co 6 7…+$62
Operator was clearly struggling with his shot during this session, which is sometimes going to happen. To my mind, it’s all about how you HANDLE a loss which determines how well you’ll be able to come back from it.
That is, if you let it get under your skin and undermine your shooting-confidence, making you skittish and apprehensive during your next outing; then you’ll probably spiral downward and ‘create’ MORE subsequent session-losses for yourself simply because your ability to maturely absorb a loss or two or even three, has not been fully developed yet.
That’s not good.
If a sessional-loss or two causes you to spiral and spin out of control; you shouldn’t even be in a casino in the first place.
Grow up, nut-up, and put up with it.
Losses are going to happen, so you better learn to deal with them; otherwise, you’ll be dealing with a lot more frequently than you really need to.
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$395
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$514
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….............+$119
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3955
MP
Let’s jump right back in:
co7 co7 co 4 12 6 7…-$155
co 3 11 10 10 co6 7…-$155
co 9 4 12 8 7…+$54
co 9 10 10 4 7…+$54
co 11 6 6 co 6h 5 9 7…+$63
co 6 3 6h co5 3 9 12 7…+$54
6h 11 7…-$204
co 6 9 11 4 7…+$54
co8 11 5 11 6 7…+$54
co 8 10 4 8 co 12 co 6 7…+$62
Operator was clearly struggling with his shot during this session, which is sometimes going to happen. To my mind, it’s all about how you HANDLE a loss which determines how well you’ll be able to come back from it.
That is, if you let it get under your skin and undermine your shooting-confidence, making you skittish and apprehensive during your next outing; then you’ll probably spiral downward and ‘create’ MORE subsequent session-losses for yourself simply because your ability to maturely absorb a loss or two or even three, has not been fully developed yet.
That’s not good.
If a sessional-loss or two causes you to spiral and spin out of control; you shouldn’t even be in a casino in the first place.
Grow up, nut-up, and put up with it.
Losses are going to happen, so you better learn to deal with them; otherwise, you’ll be dealing with a lot more frequently than you really need to.
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$395
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$514
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….............+$119
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3955
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Here’s the next flight of roll-stats from Operator from his 50-hand toss-trial, where we’ve applied the MP-$204:
co 6h 9 8 8 6 co 7 co 11 co 6 11 6 co 9 12 9 co7 co 8 5 5 5 7…+$133
co 4 8 7…-$155
co 5 6h 7…-$155
co 3 4 10 8 9 5 6 5 10 4 co 8 9 9 8 co 11 co 11 co11 co 6 8 3 9 9 9 8 8 8 12 4 6 co2 co 9 5 10 4 5 6 12 8 11 3 8h 9 co 6 9 4 6 co 4 10 3 10 6 11 8h 6 9 8 7…+$1539
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$1539
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$310
Net-win for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….............+$1229
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$5184
MP
co 6h 9 8 8 6 co 7 co 11 co 6 11 6 co 9 12 9 co7 co 8 5 5 5 7…+$133
co 4 8 7…-$155
co 5 6h 7…-$155
co 3 4 10 8 9 5 6 5 10 4 co 8 9 9 8 co 11 co 11 co11 co 6 8 3 9 9 9 8 8 8 12 4 6 co2 co 9 5 10 4 5 6 12 8 11 3 8h 9 co 6 9 4 6 co 4 10 3 10 6 11 8h 6 9 8 7…+$1539
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…....…+$1539
Gross-loss……………………………...................................…...…...-$310
Net-win for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….............+$1229
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$5184
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
I want to take a moment to thank Operator for unselfishly sharing his roll-stats with us.
As you’ll see in this session; not every outing with the MP-$204 will be a profitable one, and you should be under no illusion that it will be. Instead, you have to be mature, and look at the overall multi-session big-picture gains that it offers when applied to a wide range of skilled-shooters over a decently-sized number of sessions.
Here’s the next session from Operator's 50-hand toss-trial:
co4 6 6 8 10 6h 8 7…+$79
co 5 11 2 3 4 12 7…-$155
co7 co 5 12 12 8h 7…-$155
co7 co 10 7…-$204
co6 12 10 7…-$155
co 8 9 9 7…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$133
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$669
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$536
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4648
MP
As you’ll see in this session; not every outing with the MP-$204 will be a profitable one, and you should be under no illusion that it will be. Instead, you have to be mature, and look at the overall multi-session big-picture gains that it offers when applied to a wide range of skilled-shooters over a decently-sized number of sessions.
Here’s the next session from Operator's 50-hand toss-trial:
co4 6 6 8 10 6h 8 7…+$79
co 5 11 2 3 4 12 7…-$155
co7 co 5 12 12 8h 7…-$155
co7 co 10 7…-$204
co6 12 10 7…-$155
co 8 9 9 7…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$133
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$669
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$536
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4648
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
This next session from Operator started out pretty darn good; but it went downhill as it grew a little long in the tooth and his double-pitching 7-Out travails carried over into this session from the last.
co 11 co3 8h 5 8 co6h 6 co5 6 4 4 5 co6 11 7…+$80
co 9 3 6 5 5 3 12 5 7…+$74
co7 co 10 10co 9 8 8h 6 6 7…+$79
co 8h 8h co12 co6 5 5 8 5 5 8 3 11 10 8 9 10 10 8 8h 9 9 6h co 8 7…+$289
co 8 6 8 co 9 6 6 5 8 11 7…+$88
co 2 co7 9 2 7…-$204
co5 7…-$204
co 7 co 7 co6 7…-$204
co4 7…-$204
co9 4 8 8 7…+$62
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$672
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$816
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$144
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4504
MP
co 11 co3 8h 5 8 co6h 6 co5 6 4 4 5 co6 11 7…+$80
co 9 3 6 5 5 3 12 5 7…+$74
co7 co 10 10co 9 8 8h 6 6 7…+$79
co 8h 8h co12 co6 5 5 8 5 5 8 3 11 10 8 9 10 10 8 8h 9 9 6h co 8 7…+$289
co 8 6 8 co 9 6 6 5 8 11 7…+$88
co 2 co7 9 2 7…-$204
co5 7…-$204
co 7 co 7 co6 7…-$204
co4 7…-$204
co9 4 8 8 7…+$62
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$672
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$816
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$144
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4504
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
This is the final flight of roll-stats from Operator’s 50-hand toss-trial where we have applied the MP $204-Across Regression to it.
Here are the results:
co 4 4 co 4 6 5 10 10 4 2 7…+$63
co 9 8 9 co8 6h 9 8 co 9 8 8 9 co 9 4 8 10 10 2 8 2 7…+$193
co 5 6h 8 7…+$54
co 7 co 7 co 4 6 7…-$155
co 7 co 6h 7…-$204
co2 co 4 4 co 4 11 7…-$155
co 4 9 4 12 9 3 7…+$63
co 4 5 7…-$155
co 10 7…-$204
co8 10 4 11 7…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$427
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$873
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$446
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4058
MP
Here are the results:
co 4 4 co 4 6 5 10 10 4 2 7…+$63
co 9 8 9 co8 6h 9 8 co 9 8 8 9 co 9 4 8 10 10 2 8 2 7…+$193
co 5 6h 8 7…+$54
co 7 co 7 co 4 6 7…-$155
co 7 co 6h 7…-$204
co2 co 4 4 co 4 11 7…-$155
co 4 9 4 12 9 3 7…+$63
co 4 5 7…-$155
co 10 7…-$204
co8 10 4 11 7…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$427
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$873
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$446
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$4058
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
VinylGirl posted the roll-stats she collected during the recent dice get-together in Biloxi.
As is customary, I am running the MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing against all of the DI hands that were posted from that weekend, to see how it would fare on a big-picture “One-size-NEARLY-fits-all” advantage-play betting-approach.
Here’s the first session that she played at the Palace Casino:
VINYL-4PT,8,10(H),6,7OUT…+$62
HARD10-5PT,3,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-8, 6(H),10,11,10,7OUT…+$54
HARD10-8PT, 3, 10, 3, 7OUT…-$155
VINYL-7,3,3,2,7,4PT,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-3,7,7,2,6(H)PT,6,5,11,10(H),12,7OUT…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$170
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$563
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$393
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3665
MP
As is customary, I am running the MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing against all of the DI hands that were posted from that weekend, to see how it would fare on a big-picture “One-size-NEARLY-fits-all” advantage-play betting-approach.
Here’s the first session that she played at the Palace Casino:
VINYL-4PT,8,10(H),6,7OUT…+$62
HARD10-5PT,3,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-8, 6(H),10,11,10,7OUT…+$54
HARD10-8PT, 3, 10, 3, 7OUT…-$155
VINYL-7,3,3,2,7,4PT,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-3,7,7,2,6(H)PT,6,5,11,10(H),12,7OUT…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$170
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$563
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$393
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3665
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Here are the in-casino roll-stats that VinylGirl collected from their Hard Rock session; and where we’ve applied the MP-$204 to:
HARD10-6PT,10,8,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-8PT,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-7,3,6PT,8,6PT,7,11,5PT,5PT,4PT,10,7OUT…+$63
VINYL-8PT,5,7OUT…-$155
HARD10-7,7,2,10(H),7OUT…-$204
VINYL-6,7OUT…-$204
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$117
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$767
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204….…….…….........-$650
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3015
MP
HARD10-6PT,10,8,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-8PT,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-7,3,6PT,8,6PT,7,11,5PT,5PT,4PT,10,7OUT…+$63
VINYL-8PT,5,7OUT…-$155
HARD10-7,7,2,10(H),7OUT…-$204
VINYL-6,7OUT…-$204
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$117
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$767
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204….…….…….........-$650
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3015
MP
- London Shooter
- Posts: 2589
- Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
I fancy the rest of the rolls will start to get some of this virtual money back, but when I read vinyl's report, I was thinking to myself how badly these hands would have fared on almost any positive strategy. Again, the outcome will be most interesting IF the plan is stuck too. Here it will be, but in the real world I just know I would be wobbling after a start like that.
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
London Shooter wrote:I fancy the rest of the rolls will start to get some of this virtual money back, but when I read vinyl's report, I was thinking to myself how badly these hands would have fared on almost any positive strategy. Again, the outcome will be most interesting IF the plan is stuck too. Here it will be, but in the real world I just know I would be wobbling after a start like that.
That's a good point, LondonShooter.
The most recent Biloxi sessions have eroded the current sequence net-earnings down around +$3000.
There's no doubt that the going was pretty rough for VinylGirl & Company during their first few sessions; but I like to take a big-picture view of things.
For example, if you track the MP $204-Across Regression earnings right from the first dice-seminar that we have roll-stats for (in the Testing, Testing thread over on the DiceInstitute m-board); to-date, its net-earnings are somewhere north of +$50,000.
That is significant, especially considering that there was a spate of nearly half-a-dozen seminars where most of the 30+, 40+, 50+, and 60+ seminar-attendee hands were not included in the posted roll-stats
Sure, there were also some major drawdowns along the way; but overall, the MP-$204's net-gains just keep building and building.
Will we run into an entire seminar-weekend of in-casino rolls stats where the MP-$204 doesn't profitably prevail?
It's almost inevitable; but as long as you keep your eye on the big-picture and the overall net-gains to be made...a losing weekend once in awhile, is not to be unexpected.
Here's the next flight of numbers provided by VinylGirl. This one from Biloxi’s Beau Rivage. Again, we are applying the MP-$204-Across Regression against these roll-stats to see how it fares.
Let’s jump right in.
Hard10-10PT,8,5,9,7OUT…+$63
**SR3 (a random-roller)- 7,3,7,6pt,6pt,6pt, 6pt,9pt,5,5,8(h), 10(h),11,6,8(h), 9pt,5pt,9,8(h),8,6,5PT,10(H)PT,9,8,2.10PT, 7,7,6PT,5,8,6PT,9PT, 4,9PT,12,6(H)PT,5,6PT,2,2, The RR-shooter SAYS “I AM DONE” AND PICKS UP HIS CHIPS AND LEAVES- VinylGirl TAKEs OVER THE ROLL.**
**Please note that these above noted rolls were NOT included in the MP-$204 calculations, but are listed to indicate where VG took over that RR’s hand; and whereupon the MP-$204 would be triggered**
VINYL 4(H),PT,3,6,10,6,8,10,6,11,5,10,5,4(H)PT,9PT,10,6,8, 4, 6,4,2,4, 9PT,8(H)PT, 4,10,8PT,5PT,5PT,4PT,2,6(H),9,6(H), 8(H),7OUT. …+$399
VINYL-8PT,11,7OUT…-$204
CAROL-6PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-5PT,4,12,11,8,5PT,7FLW,9PT,9PT,10PT,9,7OUT…+$83
HARD10-5PT,7OUT…-$204
DL1-10PT,8(H),2,10PT,7FLW,7FLW,9PT,4,10,8,3,7OUT…+$62
LS-6PT,6PT,9PT,10,6,7OUT…+$62
CAROL-10PT,3,10PT,8(H)PT,11,9,9,7OUT…+$63
VINYL-7FLW,10PT,7OUT…-$204
HARD10-9PT,7OUT…-$204
DL1-8PT,7OUT…-$204
LS-6PT,6PT,4PT,6,7OUT…+$54
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$786
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$1224
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$438
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2577
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
This is the early Sunday morning session that VinylGirl and Company played at Biloxi’s Imperial Palace. Again, we are applying the MP-$204 against them to see how it fares.
Dice are out…hands up…
CAROLL-7FLW,10PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-4PT,11,6,9,10,2,5,12,8,8,3,8,6,7OUT…+$111
SAWMAN-8PT,10,6,11, 9,9,10(H),8PT,7FLW,4PT,3,6,4PT,9PT,9PT, 3,11,4PT,7OUT…+$115
HARD10-9PT,3,2,9PT,7FLW,9PT,2,11,8,8,5, 2,10,6,6,9PT,5PT, 5PT,3,5PT,7OUT…+$108
CAROLL-10PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-2,8PT,5,6,12,8(H)PT,6PT,8,6(H)PT,4PT,3,6,11,3,6, 5,5,3,6,3,3,9,7OUT…+$140
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$474
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$408
Net-profit for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........+$66
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2643
MP
Dice are out…hands up…
CAROLL-7FLW,10PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-4PT,11,6,9,10,2,5,12,8,8,3,8,6,7OUT…+$111
SAWMAN-8PT,10,6,11, 9,9,10(H),8PT,7FLW,4PT,3,6,4PT,9PT,9PT, 3,11,4PT,7OUT…+$115
HARD10-9PT,3,2,9PT,7FLW,9PT,2,11,8,8,5, 2,10,6,6,9PT,5PT, 5PT,3,5PT,7OUT…+$108
CAROLL-10PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-2,8PT,5,6,12,8(H)PT,6PT,8,6(H)PT,4PT,3,6,11,3,6, 5,5,3,6,3,3,9,7OUT…+$140
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$474
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$408
Net-profit for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........+$66
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2643
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Here are the rolls-stats from the next Biloxi session that VinylGirl took part in (where we have applied the MP-$204 against them):
CT-10PT,7OUT…-$204
HEAVY-8PT,4,9,8,6,7OUT…+$62
HOWARD-8PT,5,7OUT…-$155
LS-11FLW,8PT,9,10,7OUT…+$54
CT-6PT,4(H),7OUT…-$155
HEAVY-5PT,2,8,9,8,7OUT…+$62
HOWARD-6PT,5,10,5,4,6PT,9PT,10,8(H),6,7OUT…+$88
VINYL-3,7FLW,5PT,9,8,3,2,6,4,10(H),7OUT…+$62
HARD10-6PT,9,9,4(H),6PT,6PT,9,7OUT…+$71
LS-3,3,8PT,10,10,9,5,7OUT…+$72
BS-6PT,7OUT…-$204
CT-7FLW,6PT,7OU, …-$204
HEAVY-5PT,6,5PT,8PT,10(H),12,8PT,2,2,5PT,8,6,8,8,8,6,7OUT…+$182
HOWARD-3,7FLW,8PT,11,9,2,5,9,9,4(H),5,2,8(H)PT,6PT,
5,6PT,7FLW,10(H)PT,8(H),3,11,5,9,11,4(H),8,5,6,9,
9,6,5,5,10PT,6PT,6PT,3,7FLW,4PT,
10,9,8,7OUT…+$604
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$1257
Gross-loss……………………………........................................-$922
Net-profit for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….......+$335
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2978
MP
CT-10PT,7OUT…-$204
HEAVY-8PT,4,9,8,6,7OUT…+$62
HOWARD-8PT,5,7OUT…-$155
LS-11FLW,8PT,9,10,7OUT…+$54
CT-6PT,4(H),7OUT…-$155
HEAVY-5PT,2,8,9,8,7OUT…+$62
HOWARD-6PT,5,10,5,4,6PT,9PT,10,8(H),6,7OUT…+$88
VINYL-3,7FLW,5PT,9,8,3,2,6,4,10(H),7OUT…+$62
HARD10-6PT,9,9,4(H),6PT,6PT,9,7OUT…+$71
LS-3,3,8PT,10,10,9,5,7OUT…+$72
BS-6PT,7OUT…-$204
CT-7FLW,6PT,7OU, …-$204
HEAVY-5PT,6,5PT,8PT,10(H),12,8PT,2,2,5PT,8,6,8,8,8,6,7OUT…+$182
HOWARD-3,7FLW,8PT,11,9,2,5,9,9,4(H),5,2,8(H)PT,6PT,
5,6PT,7FLW,10(H)PT,8(H),3,11,5,9,11,4(H),8,5,6,9,
9,6,5,5,10PT,6PT,6PT,3,7FLW,4PT,
10,9,8,7OUT…+$604
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$1257
Gross-loss……………………………........................................-$922
Net-profit for this session using the MP-$204…..…….…….......+$335
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2978
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
This next MP-$204 bet-testing session was recorded by VinylGirl at Treasure Bay:
LS-10PT,8(H),8,5,8,8(H),7OUT…+$80
DL-4PT,3,11,4PT,9,4(H),7OUT…+$54
DR-8PT,6,9,12,6,6,1O,6,5,7OUT, …+$103
VINYL-7FLW,5PT,8,8,6,8,6,9,9,9,11,7OUT…+$124
HARD10-7FLW,9,7OUT…-$155
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$361
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$155
Net-profit for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……......+$206
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3184
MP
LS-10PT,8(H),8,5,8,8(H),7OUT…+$80
DL-4PT,3,11,4PT,9,4(H),7OUT…+$54
DR-8PT,6,9,12,6,6,1O,6,5,7OUT, …+$103
VINYL-7FLW,5PT,8,8,6,8,6,9,9,9,11,7OUT…+$124
HARD10-7FLW,9,7OUT…-$155
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$361
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$155
Net-profit for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……......+$206
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3184
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
I want to take a moment to thank VinylGirl once again for sharing all of the in-casino roll-stats that she collected during the most recent dice-seminar weekend. Her efforts are sincerely appreciated.
During this next session, VG noted that SR1 & SL1 were with her group, but she didn’t know what dice-handle they go by. Here are the rolls:
VEGABOND (HAD 36 ROLLs when VG ARRIVED AT TAILEND OF IT)-3,6,3,5,11,9 PT-made, 5PT,8,5PT,9PT,6,2,7OUT…+$88
SR1-8(H)PT,7OUT…-$204
SL1-7FLW,5PT,9,8,6,10,11,6,8,6, 11,9,3,9,2,6(H),8, 11,5PT, 4PT,4(H)PT, 10PT,6,11,9, 4,8,9,6,8,9,6,7OUT…+$554
NAT-7FLW,11FLW,3,7FLW,4,11,7OUT…-$204
ELM-8PT,4(H),8PT,9,5,3,7OUT…+$63
HOWARD-4PT,9,12,7OUT…-$155
HEAVY-2,9PT,6,7OUT…-$155
HARD10-9PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-11FLW,7FLW,6,12,7OUT…-$204
HOOK-12,9PT,10, 7OUT…-$155
HOWARD-6PT,11,3,9,4,7OUT…-$155
SL1-6PT,7OUT…-$204
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$705
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$1640
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$935
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2249
MP
During this next session, VG noted that SR1 & SL1 were with her group, but she didn’t know what dice-handle they go by. Here are the rolls:
VEGABOND (HAD 36 ROLLs when VG ARRIVED AT TAILEND OF IT)-3,6,3,5,11,9 PT-made, 5PT,8,5PT,9PT,6,2,7OUT…+$88
SR1-8(H)PT,7OUT…-$204
SL1-7FLW,5PT,9,8,6,10,11,6,8,6, 11,9,3,9,2,6(H),8, 11,5PT, 4PT,4(H)PT, 10PT,6,11,9, 4,8,9,6,8,9,6,7OUT…+$554
NAT-7FLW,11FLW,3,7FLW,4,11,7OUT…-$204
ELM-8PT,4(H),8PT,9,5,3,7OUT…+$63
HOWARD-4PT,9,12,7OUT…-$155
HEAVY-2,9PT,6,7OUT…-$155
HARD10-9PT,7OUT…-$204
VINYL-11FLW,7FLW,6,12,7OUT…-$204
HOOK-12,9PT,10, 7OUT…-$155
HOWARD-6PT,11,3,9,4,7OUT…-$155
SL1-6PT,7OUT…-$204
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$705
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$1640
Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........-$935
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2249
MP
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
This next Biloxi session was recorded by VinylGirl at Biloxi’s Boomtown:
HARD10-12,7FLW,6PT,10,9,5,7OUT…+$63
VINYL-3,6PT,6PT,6PT,9,5,4,10,6PT,5PT,6,4,7OUT…+$80
HARD10-7FLW,10PT,6,4,3,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-11FLW,6(H)PT,6PT,4PT,6,8,8(H),6,7OUT…+$79
HARD10-11FLW,8PT,7OUT…-$155
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$276
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$155
Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........+$121
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2370
MP
HARD10-12,7FLW,6PT,10,9,5,7OUT…+$63
VINYL-3,6PT,6PT,6PT,9,5,4,10,6PT,5PT,6,4,7OUT…+$80
HARD10-7FLW,10PT,6,4,3,7OUT…+$54
VINYL-11FLW,6(H)PT,6PT,4PT,6,8,8(H),6,7OUT…+$79
HARD10-11FLW,8PT,7OUT…-$155
Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:
Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$276
Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$155
Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........+$121
Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2370
MP
- London Shooter
- Posts: 2589
- Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am
Re: MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing
Well, Vinyl and I were at the table together a few times and I note she recorded my rolls at those times. They make up what was a story of my week - a lot of short hands. Not many PSOs or PPSO that I remember, but not too many hands either - I think I shot 20+ maybe 3 times in a week.
Of course the fascinating there here for me is that it shows the power of the 204. My recorded hands are no longer that 8 rolls, but they do produce a profit:
LS-6PT,6PT,9PT,10,6,7OUT…+$62
LS-6PT,6PT,4PT,6,7OUT…+$54
LS-11FLW,8PT,9,10,7OUT…+$54
LS-3,3,8PT,10,10,9,5,7OUT…+$72
LS-10PT,8(H),8,5,8,8(H),7OUT…+$80
More food for thought for me. Of course I will not start betting 204 across on myself, but it does show you can be in net profit territory even from a less than average set of hands if you are prepared to risk more up front and then get most of your money off the table.
Of course the fascinating there here for me is that it shows the power of the 204. My recorded hands are no longer that 8 rolls, but they do produce a profit:
LS-6PT,6PT,9PT,10,6,7OUT…+$62
LS-6PT,6PT,4PT,6,7OUT…+$54
LS-11FLW,8PT,9,10,7OUT…+$54
LS-3,3,8PT,10,10,9,5,7OUT…+$72
LS-10PT,8(H),8,5,8,8(H),7OUT…+$80
More food for thought for me. Of course I will not start betting 204 across on myself, but it does show you can be in net profit territory even from a less than average set of hands if you are prepared to risk more up front and then get most of your money off the table.