Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

irish wrote:...Most people look at bankroll as how much money they have to play craps today. If I were to walk in to a casino this weekend and have bad session after bad session, returning to the atm to withdraw money from my gambling account until it said $0, that's not my bankroll. My bankroll is how much I'm willing to wager playing craps until I decide to quit playing craps forever. Right now, my gambling account has $XXXXX.00 in it. That's not my bankroll. I may decide to buy my daughters horses for Christmas, and empty my gambling account. I still have bankroll.

So volatility management may prevent me from going to the atm this weekend, it really doesn't speak to total bankroll, and that's why losing less does not mean winning more.

Agreed.

Looking at bankroll in theory over the long run is correct, but is it practical? I don't think we are wired to look at the results of our game with the long term view of a lifetime of sessions. On an annual basis? Maybe. On three day trip basis? Sure. On a session basis? Definitely. For most, we like to think in the short term, e.g. "I had a good year", "I had a winning trip", "that was a winning session".

The goal for some like me is to hit critical mass with their gambling bankroll realizing that if they lose it they still have bankroll. What do I mean by critical mass? It is the point where your everyday gambling bankroll balance has the best chance to survive volatility and variance without having to constantly replenish it. Where your bankroll can ride the waves or bell curve and still have staying power. Think Kelly or Half-Kelly or Quasi-Kelly. Though it's not foolproof. This, combined with discipline, strict personal play rules, and stop losses can contribute to one's success at the tables.

I think I would only quit playing craps if the rules continue to change over time where there is no longer an opportunity to win due to extreme HA. Or, if all hope was lost and I was living in a van down by the river.

Definitely Scout. I use wincraps or the wizard's free game just to manually run some plays through and note them down in a spreadsheet.

I only do it in batches of 10 shooters at a time. The data is of course not very accurate as to the average draw down per hand of certain strategies, but what it does give me a good feel for is how a play may pan out in the short term.

What might be the highs and lows on two or three laps of the table? I think this is quite important as we may know the overall edge of the bets, but how might things be reasonably expected to vary in the real life world of a couple of hours on a table?

Scout,London, I use the Wizards game but I do it in 25 roller sections. I use wizards because it is faster than win craps ( no pop pups ). You can do each section in under 30 minutes. Do this five nights in a row and it simulates a mini vacation. Also, 25 shooters is closer to a regular session in the real world, unless you are a lone wolf kind of player......Seattle rick

Allow me to interject that I understand what Rick is saying and to a degree, I agree. Hmmm. Very poetic of me.

Think long run. Play 1000 sessions. In 400 of them you win an average of $100 for a total of $40,000. You have a firm loss limit of $62 (as good as any number - I'm actually assuming a $50 loss limit with a $6 six and eight slip in discipline every time). Total losses are $37,200. Total win - $2800. Yeah, I'm playing in Heavy's Perfect World Casino where these things always work out. And in this case it does.

Think of it in time. You spent 83 full days at the table for $2800.

I have an 86 year old friend who is a hard core darkside player and would gladly do this. He loves the game and literally has nothing else he's interested in doing. He goes to the casino to see his darkside buddies, play a couple of hours, have a comped or cheap lunch, play a couple of more hours, then have dinner with a couple of other buddies. For him it's a great day if we wins $20.

irish wrote:We're different people with different goals at different stages of life.

Nope, you are what HEAVY would like to be / say but can't because he is too nice
Miss you man. Hope to see you at the tables soon.

Few people have seen that side of me, Gargoil. No one wants to. As Walter Brennan used to say on "The Guns of Will Sonnet," No brag - just fact.