Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

[220Inside]

I think he's referring to MP's Dodging Bullets on the Dark Side reference that SIA mentioned one post above. I think it's detailed over on MP's website in a two part series, IIRC.

[heavy]

If you hit the "SUBMIT" button multiple times you will get multiple posts. Don't be a dunce. Just hit it once.

[heavy]

If you hit the "SUBMIT" button multiple times you will get multiple posts. Don't be a dunce. Just hit it once.

[heavy]

If you hit the "SUBMIT" button multiple times you will get multiple posts. Don't be a dunce. Just hit it once.

[heavy]

If you hit the "SUBMIT" button multiple times you will get multiple posts. Don't be a dunce. Just hit it once.

[heavy]

If you hit the "SUBMIT" button multiple times you will get multiple posts. Don't be a dunce. Just hit it once.

[heavy]

If you hit the "SUBMIT" button multiple times you will get multiple posts. Don't be a dunce. Just hit it once.

[six shooter]

Why subject yourself to the 7 or 11 at all on a come out, let the shooter establish a point, place the 6 and 8 and lay the long lost number. Why let the dice choose your number, a come out is usually a more frequently rolled number.

[DarthNater]

Heavy,
Google will find most of MP's stuff - try typing "dodging bullets dark side" - it pops right up......

SIA - we're thinking alike on the DP, as my preferred approach has been to run CTSL on the DP if the first gets knocked off... so $12 goes to $25 (keeping it simple), then $50 and that's it. The tickler is MP states to start CTSL after a shooter makes their first point, i.e. get the "good" out of the way....my analogy - not his; but he'd likely agree in concept. However the OHCM is a first roll play. I leave DP each naked, not hedging the yo. MPs original dodging bullets was $5, $15, $35, $75, $155 for a total risk of $285. I much prefer my mini DBotDS of $12, $25, $50...with a $12 6 & 8. I had a lengthy discussion with MP years ago on the effect of repeating 7/11 comeout strings - hence my reluctance to go six stages (a triggering pass, then five bets) as that's a lot of freight.

Also I have another tactic that I have been tinkering with in regard dodging the comeout quandary you cite. This is primarily because I decline to believe that two winning comeouts is a sign that the table is warming and we should transition-that's not enough. I want to transition later, not too early. So, if I see a comeout 7/11, I've resisted reloading on the DP and instead wait for the point to set, then drop $25 on the DC, let it travel then do the $12 each on the six & eight. I did something similar at the Darksiders Ball last year, as the comeout winners were killing everyone, so went to the DC, laid odds and let the comeout 7s be working for me. Treaded water for a long time that way

I said tactic above as I'm not a firm rule follower (guess its my contrarian nature) and would rather follow the trend. Although choppy is not a trend - and so we need to remember the bottom line - make a few dollars while waiting to get the dice back and then make more than a few dollars. Or is that For a Few Dollars More? Oops switching genres which is easier than switching from dark side to right side......

D.N8r

[House of Orange]

$60 on DP, Hop 7/11 $5@ No worries nate!

[SHOOTITALL]

DN: That is not bad at all. I like your lesser martingale and I still believe three shots is plenty. Sometime you get chicken, sometimes you get feathers. But using it to lap the table to stay in action with a possibility of making a little is how it should be used. Going DC rather than DP is a valid way to play it but, @$25/12/12, it is not a OHCM. That would be ~$10/12/12. Heavy suggest the $25/12/12 one time but my interest in that is rather low. Anyways, keep working on it and let us know. I will try the OHCM transition to DBaaDS next week. sia

[heavy]

At the end of the day, One Hit - Can't Miss is what I refer to as a "Hybrid" craps play - one that combines both Don't and Right side wagers. Do any of you have other Hybrid plays you like to incorporate into your game plans? If so, let's hear about them and compare notes while we're sitting around waiting for the casinos to reopen.

[mainframe]

My other very common hybrid craps play (which is really just a hedge), is as follows:

1. I bet the don't pass during a come out roll
2. If and only if the point number established is a 4 or 10, I lay two times the DP wager (causing dealer to 'bridge' my DP and lay chips. I then immediately bet the corresponding hardway for the point number established, with a wager that would win roughly the same amount as what I have at stake on my DP plus lay bets
3. I wait for the "hand" to resolve itself, placing no further bets.
There are three possible outcomes (not looking at EV, only probability

Outcome A: Seven is rolled before point. DP paid out 1:1 DP lay paid out 2:1. Corresponding Hardway bet looses
Outcome B: Point is rolled "hard" (either a hard 4 or hard 10), Hardway bet pays 7:1. Usually this results in slight net loss
Outcome C: Point is rolled "easy" (easy 4 or easy 10), all my bets lose

Now I don't know what the calculated EV for the combined wagers are (it would be nice to know), but I know that for any given roll of the dice:

Outcome A has a 1 in 6 chance of occurring (16.66666667% probability)
Outcome B has a 1 in 36 chance of occurring (2.777777777778% probability)
Outcome C has a 2 in 36 chance of occuring (5.555555555556% probability)

Is this a mathematically sound strategy, or is such a hedge just more likely to lose you more money over the long run?



outcome C is only a 2 in 36 chance

[heavy]

I personally like the hardway hedge, although I also think it's cost me money over the long run. Mathematically it's a poor play because you're just giving up additional EV.

[skasower]

I personally like the hardway hedge, although I also think it's cost me money over the long run. Mathematically it's a poor play because you're just giving up additional EV.

I hear you Heavy. But many of us are not trying to just "make money" playing Craps like a job. Speaking for myself, I enjoy mastering DI and winning but man I really like having some fun doing it. I am guilty of too many Whirl bets and Hardways bets. Too much fun!

skasower

[heavy]

Yeah, I bet a $5 World and a $1 ace-deuce (a change from my $2 high-low) on just about every Come Out when I have the dice. It turns the Pass Line from a bet that wins 16.67% of the time to a potential winner around 40% of the time with little DI skill.

[DarthNater]

Yeah, I bet a $5 World and a $1 ace-deuce (a change from my $2 high-low) on just about every Come Out when I have the dice. It turns the Pass Line from a bet that wins 16.67% of the time to a potential winner around 40% of the time with little DI skill.

Say it isn’t so......aloha to the Hi-Lo ? And now the shocka?

Is that based on your comeout set or moving to $6 from $7 on the GWAG?

I know a couple of our pals also play that the World-ace-deuce now as well, so what’s the whole story?

DN8R

[heavy]

Is that based on your comeout set or moving to $6 from $7 on the GWAG?

Couple of things. First, I noticed I was tossing a LOT more shockers than I was high-lows. The extra buck on the ace-deuce gave me the same payoff as a 2 or 12 for a buck. I got paid on the eleven on the Pass Line so I wasn't worried about collecting an extra $15 there. So from a purely mathematical perspective it seemed like I was going to benefit because the ace-deuce was showing up more than twice as often as the high low. Secondly, I frequently play a Crapless game that features the ATS over in Shreveport/Bossier and I set for the Craps numbers on the Come Out there. Since I can't lose my PL bet it's a bonus win on the Come Out GWAG. And when I'm playing the ATS on a traditional game I end up playing $15 on the PL to hedge the ATS bet. I don't $15 sevens exposure on the ATS or craps exposure on the PL so i use the World-Ace-Deuce to hedge my hedge, as it were. Yeah, it's a terrible way to play - a lot of trash hedging a lot more trash. Fortunately, I get enough of those $175 - $1225 payoffs to make if worthwhile.

[Moe Bettor]

If you can throw it, it's a brilliant way to play IMO. If certain people are at a table and I know they doing it, I'm in on that. X6s SO for one.

[skasower]

Yes, but when it is not working...ouch!