Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

2.2

but I do not have the average shot!

lmao

Not to sound like a smart ass but how I would bet depends on what I'm seeing which means watching first. Having a go to play means nothing if it's wrong for that table at this time. Don't know what will happen but I can see what has been happening and if it's inconclusive why would I even bet?

Just saying.

Kelph

$10 Pass, $5 DPass, $1 crap

Lay, $16, $15, $12 depending on point; $12 6/8.

Only on other shooters.

I think ultimately I'll do a short video on this topic - later to be incorporated in a larger video on betting strategies in general. Seems like a lot of folks don't have a clue - or maybe they just refuse to change.

Robchell: In a lot of joints you have to lay enough to win $20 on a seven out.

heavy wrote:I think ultimately I'll do a short video on this topic - later to be incorporated in a larger video on betting strategies in general. Seems like a lot of folks don't have a clue - or maybe they just refuse to change.

You asked how a person would profit buying in for $120.00. Define "profit amount", are we talking about $5.00, $25.00, what?

The first question a player has to ask is how much they going to buy in and how much they are trying to win. You should include that in your film. Apparently it's a lesson need learned as I did not see (myself included), this mentioned in any post in this thread. If you don't have a win goal, chances are you won't succeed.

I'd head for the nearest bubble machine with a $120.00 bankroll and having to bet on random shooters. I'd bet $4 inside and start pressing if/once I got my initial layout back. lol.

Since that wasn't the answer you're probably looking for I would start with what I believe is Dark Sides play. Table min DP or DC, one loss per shooter. Once the $120.00 had been ran through once which equals 25 shooters on a $5 table I'd quit no matter if I was ahead or behind. After some mental charting if the table was cold or choppy I'd switch to my table min DC up $1.00 on a loss down $1 on a win (assuming you aren't at the table min), 3 loss limit per shooter. If I got $30.00 ahead I'd quit and hope to have a bigger bankroll next trip.

With that bankroll time is your enemy as the chances are good a normal downswing will wipe you out.

In Tunica a middle aged black guy bought in next to me for $20. I turned to him and asked "Do you have any idea how to play this game?" He said "Not really, so maybe you can help me." Well, I gave him a couple of pointers - the first of which was "move your chip up toward mine because it's right in the shooter's landing zone." He listened. When Howard sevened out the guy had won around $160 (he may have stuffed more than that in his pocket). He didn't bother to color up. He took his chips and almost ran to the cage. Of course, that happened on a long hand. On a short one we could probably have doubled his $20 buy in - but that's about all.

Over lunch today SIA and I discussed the idea of how to make $100 a day at the tables. I said "Play the One Hit Can't Miss at the $25 level (placing six and eight for $24 each) until there is an EDE (energy draining event) at the table. Then turn off the place bets and Lay the point for $200. I think that would just about do it.

Lunch with Heavy is one of the highlights of my month. We discuss a lot of things and some are incorporated into the board and elsewhere. Making a $100 a day was interesting when it got to where exactly how much time should this should take or should you be at the table?

Another idea would be to use Marvin's "lost number" play and lay $200. I have tried it and so far it does work. Wasn't brave enough to really hammer it with big money.

On Wincraps, I've been war gaming betting across and moving the money to lay bets after six rolls or 2 consecutive horn numbers. I have a strict loss limit ($500.00 max pain,betting $64.00 across, including) and start the next session at a slightly higher level if the loss limit is hit the session before. It's working so far but too early to draw a conclusion.

Won't work at that level on live games because of the $1 vig but my area has suddenly acquired several electronic machines. I've been doing well on those while waiting for my preferred spots to open up on the table. Or waiting for non preferred dealers to leave the table.

On the Interblock machine you can lay a point for $2.00 if you desire and it'll calculate the vig and payout to the penny.

I don't play them so far but would love to see a thread on how to play the bubble craps machines for profit. Would guess it is really a different game then the table one we play as no possible control. I don't remember anything on this forum like that. If there is one that I have missed then someone please direct me to the link.

rhythm roller wrote:I don't play them so far but would love to see a thread on how to play the bubble craps machines for profit. Would guess it is really a different game then the table one we play as no possible control. I don't remember anything on this forum like that. If there is one that I have missed then someone please direct me to the link.

I'd like to see a thread too. Went to Jumers in Moline on Monday and had a positive day there. No monster rolls but was able to grind out a decent win until the better half got ants in her sandals and wanted to leave because she was losing on BlackJack.

On the way back we stopped at Riverside and I played the bubble since the regular table was full. Decided to mess around and was betting $64 across including and pressing every number $1 the first five hits, $2.00 the next five etc etc. Caught a long enough roll to gross $300.00. Better half lost another $200 on Blackjack for a net $100 visit. On the bright side, there's also been days where she's carried me on Blackjack since we use different betting strategies.

Lunch with Heavy is one of the highlights of my month. We discuss a lot of things and some are incorporated into the board and elsewhere. Making a $100 a day was interesting when it got to where exactly how much time should this should take or should you be at the table?

With a 1% house edge and an average $22 bet you can grind out on average a little over $8 an hour. Twelve hours of play at that rate gets you $100. Of course, most of us would play twelve hours and lose twelve hundred bucks. Or more. The clock is not your friend. Better to go in, wait for the opportunity and toss out a big Lay bet (and pray).

If I wanted to spend 12 hours in the casino I'd just find one that offered the Fire bet and wait until someone made the fourth point. Then I'd lay the hell out of points #5 and (if he made the fifth point) #6. Someone want to look up the odds against making all six points on the Fire bet? Don't bother. A Six Number Fire Bet WIN will happen 0.0162% of the time. If you want a system that wins 99.84% of the time - there you go.

SHOOTITALL wrote:Robchell: In a lot of joints you have to lay enough to win $20 on a seven out.

You lay the odds on your DP bet Mickey...

Gamblers fallacy. The four points previously made have no bearing on the resolution of your wager or the chances of it winning. You might as well have been at the movies, and bought in on a table with no fire bet. What are the odds of the next point not being made? That's your chance of winning your lay. If you lose that one, what is the chance of losing two consecutive points laid. I guarantee you it's not 99.84%

Well, this is an argument we're going to have to agree to disagree on, Irish. Your post reminds me of the days back on rec.gambling.craps when Mason and the boys routinely took me to task on issues like this. Look, I KNOW the odds of the seven showing are one in six on every toss of the game. I KNOW the odd of a shooter making his Pass are the same on every game, depending on his point. But I also know that there's a brick wall at the end of the tunnel instead of a light. Every shooter's hand has a finite number of rolls. With each toss he is one roll closer to the seven than on the last roll. I know. I see the argument for the other side. But don't be blinded by the math.

If you're in the correct spot on the table you could make a DP bet using all white or red chips in the shooters vision or landing zone to ice the shooter. that one seems to work in spite of the math.

Or, you could buy in right next to the shooter for $20.00, make a DP and then toss in more money while the dice are out for the odds. I had that happen to me 4 times last week before he gave up.

Disclaimer: You may get tarred and feathered for using these strategies.

robchell wrote:$10 Pass, $5 DPass, $1 crap
Lay, $16, $15, $12 depending on point; $12 6/8.
Only on other shooters.

My thinking: Point rolled is a 6. Down $1 buck. Bets: $10 PL, $5 DP with $12 odds.
Next roll bullfrog 6. Win $10 bucks PL, net $9 Lose $5 DP and lose $12 odds, for a net loss $8 bucks.
Is this not correct?

Just in case you missed that thread...

PL Bet After A Pass - FLASHBACK!

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5023