Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Maybe we should start a different thread for the ongoing debate here and get back to the original posters question. How would you play this game?

Warning: The following is an answer to a question. I apologize for taking part in a massive thread hijack. It is not my intent.

superrick wrote:DeadCat

The question was address to you, not some Math Boy that is writing about playing mainly BJ. We play a different game, but thanks for the link, now I can see where someone might have ripped of the bank doubling theory!

Here I thought that a professional craps player would have came up with a different way of betting, and not use something that someone came up for betting on BJ. That might not be the smartest thing you could do, after all you are assuming you have an advantage all the time when you are shooting.

Dick, The question you asked me was: "DeadCat, I only have one question for you, what do you consider a sufficient bankroll to withstand the volatility of the game?"

My answer was "It depends" and I provided a link to show how to calculate a bankroll that would minimize Risk of Ruin (going bust).

You confuse applying accepted theory with "ripping it off." If you can't read an article that may have been written for BJ players then abstract and substitute craps bet decisions for BJ decisions then you are limiting your ability to extrapolate and apply truths found in one area to another similar one.

"It depends" because there are a large number of variables that you need to answer before you can say $XX is a big enough bankroll.

That means first answering the questions:

What is the size ($) of your basic bet?
How many basic bets will you ever make at one time?
Do you have an advantage?
If so, how much of an advantage do you have?
How much of each win will you re-invest into bankroll?
Will you even play often enough that these things matter? (Once a year players only need one buy-in, daily players need many more)

With no given numerical answers for those and other variables giving you an answer in dollars would be stupid. Instead I gave you a link that should give you an idea of what it takes once you know those variables.

For the benefit of other players, when you are using this type of betting, did you ever think that it was written about making one bet at a time? Most craps players have more then one bet working when they are playing craps,

Each bet must be examined separately. When you buy stocks you evaluate each one separately, why not do the same with each bet?

The other thing is even if you are one of the very best shooters out there you can't tell me that you are only going to be making the points that you have your money bet on.

Huh? The idea of being an AP is to ONLY bet where you have a proven advantage. No you will not win every one of those bets but you should win more money than you lose (over time) on those you do bet because you should only bet on numbers where you have an advantage. Everything else is noise.

There is a very good chance of you having lets just say a 9 roll if you think of yourself as a so-called DI, that is above average! So I wouldn't be to far off by using that number of rolls, the big difference between BJ and shooting craps is you might never get one playing hit on any of your rolls before you seven out. Where as in BJ in those lets say 9 hand you play you might have a 1% advantage on the casino if you are playing a perfect game counting card. You are only going to lose one bet on each hand you play in BJ for the most part unless you split your cards!

I'm sorry. I am having a difficult time understanding what you mean. "a 9 roll" Is that a point of 9, a 9 roll hand? SRR of >9?

I won't try to answer this because I am not sure what you mean.

We all know that BJ players might go for months without winning even when they are playing the perfect strategies that they are always writing about. They talk about the long run as a way of winning. Craps players are always playing in the short run, to play in the long run you would need a unlimited bank roll, because just like the BJ players that might have a real advantage of only 1% they have major losing streaks!

Think of "The Long Run" as the tide. Think of playing with an advantage as an incoming tide, and a House Advantage as an outgoing tide. The water is money.

You can stand on the shore and watch the waves break. Sometimes the waves are rolling in, then they drain out, in and out, back and forth, but less immediately obvious is the overall flow of the tide. With an incoming tide the water will eventually lap at the seawall. With an outgoing tide an empty sandy beach will be revealed. A snapshot of a wave braking in or receding out does not tell you which way the tide is going.

I've been on the same table with one of their writers many times and have seen how some of their betting methods do not work out, I do not want to mention names! Lets just say that their WOTCO bets on the four and ten was killing them, the shooter was losing his butt! I wonder where they got that betting method from!

So what? Just because someone like MP uses a certain betting method doesn't mean it will work for the next guy. Advantage play means determining and validating just where you have an advantage, then betting it. Even then you will win some, lose some. One of the most successful APs I know, who anyone knows often told me"Individual sessions don't matter."

You always say things like that. "I've seen board members have terrible sessions then write trip reports claiming they won thousands" I've been on the boards for 7 or 8 years and I've never seen anyone lie about a trip report, at least when I know differently. If we are all a bunch of liars, playing with no advantage but claiming one, why do you spend so much time worrying about it?

All you do is complain about other people. You carry pre-printed complaint cards to hand dealers and others to hand other players. What kind of miserable world do you live in and why don't you change your surroundings if you are so surrounded by such miserable people?

I would look at what The Wizard of Odds had to say about the Kelly Criterion before I tried to use it for betting craps.

So? Did I say "Use the Kelly Criterion?" The article was to demonstrate how you can calculate required bankroll.

I did find it interesting that the case cited was an AP with a $20,000 bankroll, making $40,000/yr but not re-investing would sooner or later hit ruin. That doesn't mean that he's not a successful player it just means that with a finite bankroll there is always some chance of losing it all.

Sorry , but I know that I never have that 1% advantage on the casinos when I'm playing craps, we still can't change the fact that we are playing a negative-expectation game, and there are days that we can't do anything right.

Then you are just gambling, not that there's anything wrong with that but all the AP advice in the world won't matter until you gather the skills to play with an advantage.

For those that want to just bury my post by posting over top of it with a frivolous post or photo, here I'll save you the trouble. Gee come to think about it, I even took that photo I didn't need to search the web for a photo that I could rip off!



Just one of the many things that I do on the weekends, to advoid the tables when they are packed!
There are other things to do around Vegas beside playing craps on full tables on the weekends.

Nice asses, which is yours?

Can we please get back on track? I don't see the point in a pissing contest.


-DC

Super Rick walks into a casino....

Okay, guys. Time to settle down. For those of you who have not figured it out yet, Rick's core beliefs are as follow:

1. DI does not work
2. MP is a liar who overstates his abilities and earnings at craps
3. DC is not an AP when it comes to craps because . . . see #1

I think everyone has their own opinions on those subjects. I doubt that anyone is going to change anyone else's mind about any of the above. But in any case, this is not the time or place. No one is rising to the bait, so let's quit fishing, Rick.

heavy

It's been awhile since I've been to Albuquerque, but there is a chance I'll be passing through the area sometime in April. Which casino has the best TABLES theses days (not the best odds - the best table for DI's)? Then I'll follow that question with "which casino has the best game (that does mean best odds). Last time I was there the Star had the best game but one of the worst tables around. Anything changed? How many tables at the Star now? Length? Bounciness? Inquiring minds and all that.