Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

April 8 2018,

Good morning WC,you are right.
WC, when you play baccarat WHAT system do you play?
And are you a winner at the game of baccarat. Jaime.

Very interesting wild child!

Have been so deep in thought and testing only Baccarat that I really forgot about any other applications really.

With all the randies that play at the craps table here, I can't really think of many times that the 13 step progression would NOT have worked on a Field bet. Highly likely here to catch many 2s and 12s for a double payout as well.

I may just cruise over to the craps table and do some charting on that and see what comes up on average.

Good catch!

jaime1943 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:51 am April 8 2018,

Good morning WC,you are right.
WC, when you play baccarat WHAT system do you play?
And are you a winner at the game of baccarat. Jaime.

.
jaime1943

Although I am a net winner at Baccarat
currently my Cameo ( short time in/out ) casino experiences have not included
the luxury of the extended time that ,in my perspective,
Baccarat
or
the more frequently available in my casino markets Mini Bac
may require
to obtain the fullest enjoyment of playing a full eight deck shoe....

A person I knew socially introduced me to the game....
I followed her play and that of several of her relatives

One of the "Uncles" suggested the book:
"Q's Baccarat Winning Strategies " Volume 2..... author John Qin
Golden Autumn Publishing ,Inc
P.O. Box 527686
Flushing,N.Y. 11352-7686
I S B N 0-9651663-09 First Printing November 1997 U S A edition

( Volume one was alleged to have been printed for an Asian Market in Chinese )
currently it is out of print...
Heavy may be able to locate a copy ( English Language )
via the A P C Book Store

just me saying
w c

Greetings!

I have been testing several different scenarios with Seth's Target Betting (better known as the "Target 3 Play" or "T3P"), and the same shoes I tested Lee's 13 level negative progression with and wanted to report some interesting, general overall findings.

It appears comparing the T3P vs. the 13 level negative progression, suggested at the very top of this thread, proved to be very worthwhile.

I suppose the main overall general finding was that “T3P” seemed to provide much better BR control and preservation/holdback, especially with how an individual applies the T3P strategy. With T3P, most generally, there are fewer bets than betting every 13 level negative progression bet. Granted that you have to at least bet an amount equal to your LTD (Loss To Date), plus an amount that provides a Profit, T3P allows you to either make that lump sum bet, STOP, switch from either Banker or Player or transfer play to another shoe.

In other words, you can choose when, or even if, to execute the built up LTD plus a profit bet. I’ll admit, sometimes they can amount to a “brown trouser” moment bet as Seth calls it but, with a 13 level negative progression, you are still continuously/progressively, all in up to that bet anyway! It’s basically just an all at once bet compared to a gradual, continuous increased bet.

One interesting item I continually noticed, shoe after shoe, was that T3P seemed to be able to stretch the amount of loss levels to 15-18 for the same amount of BR bet vs. the 13 level negative progression. This is very significant as sometimes, just getting a few more results out of a shoe, made the difference in busting or getting the profitable Win-Win! IMO, this was highly significant!

Depending on the amount of base Units bet with T3P (I utilized just 1Unit, for each of the “3” levels and progress my LTD from there), T3P can be utilized to actually grind out into the 15-18 loss level progression, reasonably. By going back, by hand, and testing 60 previously tested 13 level negative progression shoes, what I also noticed was that I eliminated almost EVERY bust I had in those shoes previously. Remarkable!

This time in testing, I only had ONE bust in those shoes, or 1.67% bust rate. The previous bust rate was 8.33%. IMO, this is highly significant too and probably the biggest finding of them all! It didn’t provide for complete, 100% “bust free” play but, a 98.33% Win ratio (previously was 91.67%) is getting closer!

I guess the other interesting and greatly satisfying item to note is that, my various hand testing data results of just several hundred shoes to date, seems to almost identically match Seth’s data Win rates based on hundreds of thousands of shoes tested at a time. My previous statement at the beginning of this thread seems to be holding true…” Also, note that many people think you have to test thousands and thousands of shoes to get an accurate accounting of a logic outcome. In Baccarat Buster 2, I found by examining shoe session analysis, after about 40 or 50 shoes, the law of averages seemed to take over and anything over that was simply redundant.”

IMO, it’s all about finding the best way to Win consistently utilizing a known amount of BR and an applicable betting strategy to match.

One other item I wanted to address was the Banker result “tax”. Be it a continuous Banker result “5% commission” grind or the dreaded singular Banker “Super Six” result “50% commission” only, Seth HATED it and so do I. As stated previously, I am under the dreaded singular Banker “Super Six” result “50% commission only” here in the Philippines.

ALL my test results were playing Banker. I did post some Player stats but, they were basically for comparison sake. As stated, Seth HATED betting Banker because of the “tax” but, did run some scenario testing on Banker betting with a extra “EOS” (End of Series) bet and one that used an Unit bet of x1.05. They both performed brilliantly in his testing and he even stated that he could “see the light” of betting Banker all the way and might even change his Player betting strategy.

Well…with Seth, always betting Banker didn’t last that long but, his testing still proved that if you provide a method of “tax” recovery, it did test out to be a winner.

Soooo…what I devised, for my own method of play, vs. the dreaded Banker “Super Six” result “50% commission” was to just add the “tax” collection amount to my LTD (Loss to Date amount). I would eventually manage to get it all back unless a shoe ended with a “tax” collection result or loss before a LTD recovery. All in all, I was highly successful, in most every shoe except a few, in getting a “tax” REFUND and consider this strategy to make Banker a very good bet!

I’ll try and post some shoes showing my T3P Baccarat betting patterns to give you a better feel of my take/play of the T3P. Hopefully, I can encourage “Crapsjourney” to add to this thread some more too, on how he utilizes/implements T3P in his betting strategies, especially with his craps Darkside play.

I think there is definitely an application here that can be adapted to craps play too that will make our craps endeavors more profitable!

I looked over Seth's blog a while back but I did not fully understand his game. If you can post it here in layman's terms I would appreciate it. I played the 6 version recently and it stung when I received a half bet win but it is much better versus ez-bacc where it is a complete push. What type of bankroll (how many units) does Seth's game require. Best of luck Strato.

KrapsNovice wrote: ↑Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:51 am I looked over Seth's blog a while back but I did not fully understand his game. If you can post it here in layman's terms I would appreciate it. I played the 6 version recently and it stung when I received a half bet win but it is much better versus ez-bacc where it is a complete push. What type of bankroll (how many units) does Seth's game require. Best of luck Strato.

Go back and review the Thursday, March 5, 2009 thread. That really lays it all out.

As for the BR part of it, you must have an amount that can take whatever level of bets you are making initially, plus whatever extra you add to your next bets to make a profit. Your Next Bet must bet an amount equal to your current LTD (Loss to Date) PLUS an amount of Profit you wish to make.

This is progressive, so you have to determine your own "call it quits" ceiling until you get a "back to back" win. You never really know when it is going to hit but, you have to use your head as to how long you will sit there taking losses and basically doubling your bets plus, in any particular shoe.

Seth says to use the $5-$25,000 spread. Yes, that's 1-5000. The wider you can spread against the casino, the better off you will be to Profit!

If you think about it...the casino wants you to bet a smaller spread so they can beat you. A small BR just will not win with any consistency. The only person they are afraid of is the player who can beat their game betting consistently with a large spread BR.

I will say in my testing, 98.33% of my wins utilized a session BR that required no more than one 160 unit bet to produce a win, making my spread basically a 1-160. That is VERY TIGHT!!! Needless to say...my "brown trouser" moment has been the 160 unit bet! I did though, most always scored a Win betting no more than 60-80 units in any particular shoe.

It does take BR to stay in the game, long enough to make money...

Hope this made sense.

April 22 2018,

Good morning Stratocasterman,
what i am seeing here is a martindale system PLUS SOME EXTRA UNITS when you win AND then let it ride.
Do you see it the same way i do OR if you see it another way PLEASE tell us how you see it, Thank you.

This system you can play it on any game in the casino? Now ask yourself HOW much are you willing to loose
before you go home broke. and you will.

Can you please break this system down into numbers on a 5 dollar table?

[1 ] First bet is 5 dollars THEN BET 2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11/12/ AND last bet is 13 Thank you.

jaime1943

Let's cut Strat some slack
Everyone has access to a calculator
and
is capable of extrapolating
the 2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11/12/ AND last bet is 13

$ U S D
value in whatever amounts to and beyond the TABLE LIMITS..

just me saying
w c

April 22 2018,

Heavy OR W.C OR STRA MAN, is this system a martindale system plus or not.

Thanks w c! Been crunching a lot of numbers lately and am getting a bit brain numb.

Martingale or double up? Yes, to some extent jaime1943 but, you are NOT betting every result/play of the shoe after three losses.

Also, look at and compare ANY specific level negative progressions. What's really the difference unit wise? Increasing your bet and betting at every level ends up being almost the same as a double up after sitting out several levels, then making a "catch up bet. If you encounter any loss and never make a bet equal to your LTD + some Profit, you will NEVER make a profit.

What I have been able to realize and state is, that you can STOP, postpone, move to another shoe etc. and THEN decide if you want to make the LTD + Profit bet with T3P or Target Betting. Betting a X number of progression levels gradually puts your BR mostly all in up to that point.

Play this T3P on any casino game? I can see the application to several games with maybe some modifications.

stratocasterman

My comprehension of your adaptation of
T3P / Target Betting
as demonstrating the value to an Advantaged Player
to exercise the patience to strictly adhere to the game plan without wavering....
.
In Roulette ,this could work with the outside wagers.
With Dice aka: Craps
Pass Line and Don't Pass wagers could work.
.
It is an understatement to call it a devoid of emotion approach......
.
Decidedly ,
this is NOT for the ACTION JUNKIE Crowd..
.
By selecting an entrance and exit game plan
I can see it working over an extended time frame, perhaps with less volatility
experienced by those facing the
HIGHS in PEAKS and lows in valleys
.
Might more resemble A JOB as opposed to ENTERTAINMENT.

just me saying
w c


...

April 23 2018.

W.C, when you try this system out at a casino, be it a Martingale system/ double up/ let it ride/ get back to me/board
and tell us how much you won OR loss.
Jaime.

Great thread. Appreciate the effort SCM has put into it. I’ve been using the target 3 play on my craps don’t pass for a long time. Seth (his author pen name) initially used it on blackjack. It underpins my right side play. And yes once the 3rd loss is hit I skip until that trend ends.

Now if you don’t have the balls to bet a loss to date + a bit more. Like me. I’ve actually found that you can reset and start again. And still be profitable. Of course you could get ground down to nothing as well. But that’s the game.

My stats don’t lie. And for those that follow my Adventures Down Under thread will know. I record and track everything. Craps is my hobby. But run it like a business.

Baccarat with target 3 play betting solely on player is funding my Craps at a 10% return vs 1% return respectively.

I highly recommend that anyone interested in learning strategies test them out fully first by simply getting a good app on your smart phone or computer and running the plays.

It will quickly show you what works and what doesn’t just over a few thousand playing decisions.

PS I’ve tried the target 3 play on the field. It’s not bad but it has to much variance for me. I prefer to stick with a decision that’s more 50/50.

Hey Strat!

No matter how much you crunch the numbers and burn the midnight oil analyzing stuff, you will go back to craps. The energy at the table at Bac is not on the same level as that of Craps. You will eventually come back to the challenge and the energy. You'll change your betting strategy and eventually adapt one that works for you. All in good time. Lol!

Cheers!

wild child...I think you hit the nail on the head directly! It is mechanical, a bit job like and not much real action.

jaime1943...I should be back to the casino soon. I will post TRs here like I did above when I play.

crapsjourney...glad to see you back and with more great input! Seeing that Baccarat helps fund your "craps journey" speaks loudly. I too, have toyed with the Field bet with T3P in Wincraps...didn't work to well. I totally agree that you need a 50/50 type decision to optimize the play. The PL/DP, DC and Lay bets are something I have been playing with some Wincraps success.

Irukanji...ALMOST guilty as charged! I haven't been back to the casino in awhile but, I have been crushing Wincraps quite a bit lately with anticipation of more Baccarat Profits to fund the BR. I really DO miss the craps table action! It just really is hard to beat. I am analyzing different betting strategies, exactly as you mentioned, for a glorious return someday soon, when the Baccarat strategies here help fund a separate Craps BR. I think the smart thing to do now is keep two BRs, individually. Have you continued to play any BJ lately with that method you showed me? I think that was a pretty smart way of play myself.

Great input everyone, thanks.

Hey are you guys betting strictly don’t pass with no qualifications on the shooter? I mean like do you let him beat you once, twice, three times and you’re off him or do stay on the don’t regardless of the number of times he beats you?

I have been using two losses (passes) and off but my results are less than stellar. I’ve had far too many get into very high bets to be comfortable.

April 24 2018,

Hi steve o, know why you fill uncomfortable when you get into very high bets? YOU are playing a martingale system, Irish can you tell us/form/ your opinion on this martingale system.

SteveO wrote: ↑Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:01 am Hey are you guys betting strictly don’t pass with no qualifications on the shooter? I mean like do you let him beat you once, twice, three times and you’re off him or do stay on the don’t regardless of the number of times he beats you?

I have been using two losses (passes) and off but my results are less than stellar. I’ve had far too many get into very high bets to be comfortable.

SteveO, my philosophy on the one singular shooter beating me on the DP is this...beat me once, shame on YOU. Beat me twice, shame on ME!.

IMO only

As for high bets, specifically in a 1:1 payout game and making a continuous Profit, and not picking on anyone and respecting an individuals preferred betting strategy...

If anyone is uncomfortable making high bets (not exactly sure what the definition of that is), you have no business betting in the first place.

You have to utilize a proper BR against the House or you are doomed, period. I don't care what system it is or what it is called. Vig aside, the House beats the Player by outlasting your BR, possibly too small of a betting spread in the particular game being played and long consecutive downturns of losing game results in the House's favor.

I learned this for sure in 20 months of craps the hard way, as stated above. I secretly knew that from many users and threads on this Forum, that I would likely crash and burn with too small of a BR but, I just HAD to see if I could make it while learning my way through some live DI. I now see it as my "cost of doing business" and that every person that talked the BR game was absolutely correct. Not going to make that mistake again...if I get beat, I just get beat.

Sure, you may fall into an isolated situation where you have more individual wins than losses (probably Flat Betting) on a few and far between outing but, how often do you expect that is going to continue? Is there any 100% guaranteed system where you win more bets than you lose?

I'll quote Seth again...“Your objective is to make a steady profit, and because you know ahead of time, that in the end you will lose more bets than you win, you also know that the only way you can make money is by winning more when you win, than you lose when you lose. Psychic ability is not required.”

Betting anything LESS than your LTD (Loss to Date) will NEVER get you into Profit. You will ALWAYS have a loss until doing so. Whether you bet it all at once or even break it up into multiple bets. Multiple bets??? No thanks, I'd rather bet one 50/50 outcome bet...much better odds at winning, than trying to accomplish the same outcome with multiple bets.

The House does lose as much as it wins with actual game results. If they didn't, who in the hell would ever show up at the casino to play? Why would anyone ever take their money to a game where they NEVER had an opportunity to win?

Find the BEST way to WIN at the game you play, then use an applicable BR to back up your particular bets to accomplish the Profit.

THAT is what I am aiming at doing here with this research, no matter which game application a person can adapt it to! Go forth and WIN!

Good day to you stratocasterman, April 24 2018.

Good point you make stratocasterman.
Not to gang up on you Steve o, i know you are a good man, but he is right on the bank roll thing.
I am sure LOU has a bank roll of 100,000 plus dollars to play his system.

I had a bank roll of 100,000 plus dollars when i played the ponnies.
Also when i played the Silver Marked [ manged by my brother the stockbroker ] the Bank roll WAS one
million dollars, he passed away, so i don't play the stock market anymore.

Now, lets go with you Stratoman, you are telling STEVE O that he needs a Bank Roll to play this system.
Now tell STEVE O , how much he needs to be able to play this Martingale/ double up/ Let it ride/ system.

Thank you Stratocasterman. Jaime

All bets are on Banker.

Standard bets are 100U for 3 Losses without a "back to back" Win.

After 3 Losses on Player (without a "back to back" Win), I STOP and wait for a Banker result, then I bet my current LTD (loss to date) PLUS 10% or 100U or even more. If that bet loses, I STOP and wait for the next Banker result, then bet my current LTD PLUS 10%. I do this until I get my "back to back" Win or I can decide to switch to Player for awhile, STOP completely or move to another shoe and pick back up where I left off at. There are always options rather than continuing to basically double up PLUS and keep taking the hit in a complete downturn. Use your head! You WILL get back on the right track by either switching to Player or Banker within a shoe OR just go to another shoe. What you do NOT want to see is a BPBPBPBPBP shoe or all single results. MOVE to a better shoe!

B6 - is a Banker result of 6 which has a 50% 'tax" commission paid here (that SUCKS!). I recover this "tax" deduction with an equal or more amount bet, somewhere within the next bet to 5th next bet.

5th in the Run - is the 5th consecutive Banker result in a Run. After 4 winning Banker results I automatically bet 500U rather than the standard 100U bet.

RESULT BET WON GRAND TOTAL

P -100 0 -100
B -100 200 0
B -300 600 300
P -100 0 200
B -100 200 300
B -300 600 600
B -100 200 700
P -100 0 600
P -100 0 500
P -100 0 400
P 0 0 400
B 0 0 400
B -400 800 800
P -100 0 700
P -100 0 600
T 0 0 600
P -100 0 500
P 0 0 500
B 0 0 500
T 0 0 500
P -400 0 100
B 0 0 100
B -10002000 1100
B6 -100 150 1150
B -100 200 1250
B -600 1200 1850 5TH level in the run
P -100 0 1750
B -100 200 1850
B -300 600 2150
P -100 0 2050
P -100 0 1950
B -100 200 2050
P -500 0 1550
B 0 0 1550
B6 -800 1200 1950
T 0 0 1950
P -100 0 1850
P -100 0 1750
P -100 0 1650
B 0 0 1650
P -700 0 950
P 0 0 950
T 0 0 950
P 0 0 950
P 0 0 950
P 0 0 950
P 0 0 950
B 0 0 950
B -15003000 2450
T 0 0 2450
B -100 200 2550
P -100 0 2450
P -100 0 2350
P -100 0 2250
P 0 0 2250
P 0 0 2250
P 0 0 2250
P 0 0 2250
B 0 0 2250
B -500 1000 2750
T 0 0 2750
B -100 200 2850
P -100 0 2750
P -100 0 2650
P -100 0 2550
B 0 0 2550
B -500 1000 3050
B -100 200 3150
P -100 0 3050
P -100 0 2950
P -100 0 2850
B 0 0 2850
B -500 1000 3350

11,600U Bet
3,350U Profit
28.90% ROI on Units Bet
Banker Wins = 30
Player Wins = 37
Tie Wins = 6

If you don't have any, just go by the tables and record the results of several shoes. As "crapsjourney" suggested, take them home and practice on them. Play an online Baccarat sim if you just have to and are too lazy to jot down some REAL results. REAL results will give you a much better feel for the game vs. a RNG sim. In all my testing and over the years, there is just no comparison from REAL shoe data compared to sims. It gives you NO real card shuffle that you will actually experience at the REAL tables...trust me.

One OTHER thing I want you to notice with this example shoe. Look at the Banker/Player/Tie total results. Notice anything??? YES...Player was predominate over the entire results of the shoe but, I STILL beat the shoe betting Banker for a nearly 29% ROI for the total amount bet. Actually, I never made a bet higher than 1500U so that really is a 223.33% ROI and I NEVER ONCE was in the red after my initial first 100U bet.

Will all shoes be like this? No but, I think this gives you a glance of what is possible.

One other method you can use is to just Target bet the second result ONLY of whatever you are betting. If it's Banker, just wait for a Banker result Target to happen, then bet whatever for the targeted second like result bet. If it loses, just wait again for the same Target to happen...then, bet your LTD PLUS. It ends up saving you a few Units vs. the above T3P method.