Post
by skasower » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:24 pm
Oh how I hate to wade into this discussion. But...I have to say that Irish, while hard ass as hell here, is dead-on correct. I do not claim any deep understanding of probability theory but I do understand that any "projections" made based on that theory contain a "ceterus paribus" assumption. For those who don''t feel like running to the Google to find out what ceterus paribus means, let's simply say that it means "holding all else constant."
So, let's take our probability theory to the craps table for a one hour session. Ok DI aficionados, is one hour long enough to effect a total random set of dice tosses? Is one table the same as another and their impact on your one hour of tossing? Did the cocktail waitress with the D cup take your attention just as you were in your rhythm? All of these variables and so many more, like temperature of the room, do you have to take a dump, are the other players irritating or too loud, did your teenager get into a fight with your wife while you are out of town tossing dice? All these variables...all impacting your toss. And yet, there are folks (apparently some who have posted on this topic) who believe that they have a methodology that overcomes impacts to randomness such that their math makes betting strategies predictable given the random game. I do not need to spank these folks. Irish is doing a really good job of it here. But, I ask you the casual reader to consider why occasionally you notice trends at the craps table. Did those trends really occur? Yes, if you blundered into sinking some chips into the play, your chip collection has grown. Other times, you are not so lucky.
Here we have impact to the long term randomness of dice tossing. Oh, one more point about it. Casinos have gone out of their way to try to steer our tosses into random events with no impact or "influence." However, their methods are not perfect and as such we observe that over your hour of tossing, you have indeed not been random. That is to say, that probability theory would have so many of each number tossed in that hour except that one hour may not be long enough as I said earlier. So even chicken feeders can toss long hands.
Thus, I would not expect any betting methodology to rely on probability mathematics to do so with a straight face. Please don't spend money on such an approach. You would do better to try hard to "listen to your gut" that a trend is now happening at your craps table and heroically bet those funds on that trend. Remember, we are attempting to find the portions of time during dice tossing where there simply was not enough time to reach randomness, luck is with us and you have practiced enough to toss with minimal off axis rolls.
Does this sound like total bullshit to you? Well, remember a couple of things. First, I retired as a University Professor whose Ph. D. is in Economics. So BFD! That gives me only a modicum of arrogance to assert what I just asserted. The second thing I would like you to remember is something Albert Einstein said (and he knew a little about mathematics and probability theory):
Alber said:
"Not everything that counts can be counted. And not everything that can be counted counts." I believe that DI is attainable and I believe that the laws of Probability require that we hold all kind of phenomena constant in order to effect the mathematics of probability. Thus, you should find periods of time at the craps table where the tosses are not fitting a random pattern. So, good for you and your gambling budget if you correctly identify that happening in front of you, and so much for betting strategies that rely of the predictability of mathematics.
OK, let the browbeating begin...
skasower...aka...( and make note of it)...
Profe$$or Ka$hFi$h
