Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

irish wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2019 8:05 am

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Small samples don't matter. Even larger samples carry only so much significance. Subsets like 720 rolls or maybe 1440 will give you some insight, but only a compendium of the data will really be meaningful.

That's the most important thing I've learned from tracking is don't get into the dog chasing your tail routine and make changes from what you see in small samples.

I still change sets on occasion but only on tables I don't have a history on and usually for a very specific reason. That reason is usually because my toss and dice reaction after table contact look good but I'm getting too many 3 craps as a result. I'll change to a sister set to try and get rid of the 3's.


Unfortunately it's getting to be almost impossible to get a table history on the casinos in my locale. They change out tables and layouts more often than some people change underwear.

Small samples of dice throws have no meaningful use.
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BT is the Gutenberg press of the DI world. I decided that tracking 1-3k rolls to prove to myself that I have skill was one dimensional and that by recording stats from each “practice” session I could look at both the big picture and the each of the pixels of that picture. I added a sheet to BT. Labeled one book Session and another one ALL. Enter the data in session, cut and paste to All. At the end of the book, I've have the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation(SD) of each category of stats. I now have a way to measure my variance and consistency
With that data as a baseline I can evaluate each of my “practice” sessions by comparing it to all the others in the baseline. The standard deviation measures my variance and consistency.

Each hand is an independent event in a sample space (all probabilities) of 36. Each session, whether it is a “practice session” or a “casino session” is also an independent event with a sample space of 36. Looking at just one event will not revel much, but having the ability to compare the independent events gives you more data about your performance.

Tracking takes time. You can look at the cumulative data of BT, or you can use it as a tool to collect other date. The SRR and FF in commutative BT measure your skill. Looking at your SD measures your consistency. You only get the SD by looking at smaller sample(event) sizes. Big picture made from a collection of small ones.

BT is a great tool, when you use it. I agree with you, tracking your last session to determine what to bet on your next session in the same day is a waste of time. Past performance has no value at all if your variance and consistency is random.

Love the signature Raider! Are you tracking casino rolls yet?

House of Orange wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:23 am Love the signature Raider! Are you tracking casino rolls yet?

No not yet, I have two methods in mind to try. Since I have started in Sep I have had 10 live casino sessison a a BR so short, I I would call it a buy in, not a bankroll. I know that lack of table time impacts my state of mind, so I have been doing hit and run type of table time, more to just shoot on the home casino tables, look for others that have some skill and battle the butterflies in my stomach. I have tried tracking my training and practice, it takes my focus off the game and the shooting. I need to get that under control and learn to relax at the table. Right now I am 3-1-6, bankroll is up 30%. I think I have aboutl 100 rolls.

the signature, LOL, I am the only Di I know, and in talking to people about it, those how no nothing about the game, don't now a come bet from a buy bet, would tell me its not possible. SO I would prove it by wadding up a piece of paper, bounce it off the wall into the trash can. they didn't get it. now I spell it out for them. I love the deer in the headlights look when I give them the signature.

scout wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:07 am Hi Raider,

You certainly put the time in attempting to quantify variance and consistency.

A question for you.
How would you view your DI journey if you didn't go through that effort to understand variance and consistency regarding your toss?

I don't see how I could have done anything else but look at variance. Think of the toss like an engine and BT like a diagnostic machine, Taking the motor apart won't make you a better driver but you might be able to tinker with it and get a few more MPH. I remember starting out, tracking all of my practice and the emotional roller coaster. This time I am not doing any serious tracking until I hit my training goals. I will use tracking to measure my progress, in small steps. If you as good as you will get, you have no need to track, if you want to get better, track with a purpose. The SRR is the measuring stick of DI skill, but I don't think it should be the only one.

By hand or session tracking you have more information about how you toss and it lets you look at your progress in a shorter period of time than it does to get statical confidence in your skill. I don't know how anyone else but my first 5k rolls were junk. Maybe there are DI Gods who get to a high skill in under 5k rolls, but I am not one of them. So why track those? Do a Base line of 720 at 5k, then 10, look at what has changed.
Taking tracking apart made me realize the tracking should not be practice, it should be looked at independent of tracking. Practice is not training, and should be looked at as independent of Practice. Practice games, guess what, independent of all of the above.

If trying to do the same thing the same way leads to reproducible results,
Then variance and consistency should be reproducible.


After all, we all are just seeds in our own RNG.

I use to track individual numbers & compare them with probability when I was new to Craps. It was close just often enough for me to place too much misguided trust in it. That's how I learned about volatility & skewness. Numbers can show up way out of what Probability says or they can just vanish. Happens with no indication of how long or short or great or direction it would be.

Too much faith in the Law of Large Numbers in the short term leads one into "due numbers" Gambler Fallacy territory & an over reliance on negative progressions to pull out a win. Every time it works it strengthens your belief that it will again the next time but you may just have to dig a little deeper......until you bust. Negative progressive should be handled like fire & kept on a short leash. Accepting a smallish loss is better than an unbearable one.

There is no sure way at Craps but there are sensible ways but they all involve discipline as your safety net. All else depends on each individual's skill, knowledge, observation, playing style as each game unfolds. Of course luck helps. Done right you'll require less luck than other players.